Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 [24] 25 26 ... 41  All

Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 41356 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 78
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #575 on: August 19, 2018, 10:31:25 am »

Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched.  Buddying is used by either alignment.
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #576 on: August 19, 2018, 11:12:25 am »

The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

You think Simon, who's pretty much playing like a newbie, is so easy to tone-read? And yet you're voting Skumpy, because you think he's acting even more super-scummily?

I kind of don't like how you're staying largely disengaged with the game, resting confidently on your two scumreads but not pushing cases beyond "hey, isn't that too scummy?". Meanwhile, I'm really struggling to work out which subset of all the scummy stuff we're seeing constitutes grounds for an actual vote.

I mean, I'd love to have been correct about my early "scumslip" comment that pointed the finger at the two of them being scum together, but how often does stuff like that work out?
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4756
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #577 on: August 19, 2018, 11:23:11 am »

White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4756
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #578 on: August 19, 2018, 11:24:04 am »

so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #579 on: August 19, 2018, 11:39:01 am »

so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor

Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as:

1. Being only very occasionally in range of mobile signal and having his phone load a page in passing that he had requested a long time prior.

2. Having left a desktop tab open on the forum somewhere, and a script in that randomly making a request (I believe I read a thread discussing someone having inflated their "time on the site" stats that way, which is why I fully believe in "false positives" from Skumpy's method being a possibility.

3. Skumpy being scum and lying about having seen Raptor online, taking confidence from the fact that it's not retrospectively verifiable and town's response to his first admission of using "Who's Online" did not indicate that any of the rest of us are in the habit of using that.

I think it's really quite likely that Raptor didn't lie at all, even if Skumpy didn't lie either.

What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Simon Jester

  • Golem
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 185
  • Shuffle iT Username: hockeyzemlan
  • changed life, changed everything
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #580 on: August 19, 2018, 11:56:36 am »

Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched. Buddying is used by either alignment.

It's not an important discussion but to me white knighting is a IRL-term for needlessly defending someone else. Buddying have I only seen in scumterms since they are the only one that knows that they are supporting an opposite faction. Ah well. If Skumpy is scum he sorta did both anyway. If he's not, well, nice post, fam!

All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way. 
Logged
S

Skumpy

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 126
  • Shuffle iT Username: skumpy
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #581 on: August 19, 2018, 12:46:43 pm »

I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.

I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.

As I said Space, ignore it if you want and I won't hold it against you. But tell me why you don't want to vote Raptor at this particular moment.
Logged
He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4756
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #582 on: August 19, 2018, 01:40:49 pm »

What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?

High. I'm back to townreading him.

so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor

Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as: [...]

Maybe, but it doesn't need to outweigh other options. If it's like a 1/3 chance that he lied, that probably already makes him the person I want to lynch the most. It's not like he has much going for him in the first place.

But it's probably higher than that. Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #583 on: August 19, 2018, 02:56:15 pm »

What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?

High. I'm back to townreading him.

Okay, then what do you think of gkrieg being so convinced that Skumpy is scum that he's had his vote there all day, and is not really engaging with the rest of the game to persuade anyone else of the fact?


Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?

His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...

In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,

I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #584 on: August 19, 2018, 03:58:28 pm »

Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
Logged

Skumpy

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 126
  • Shuffle iT Username: skumpy
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #585 on: August 19, 2018, 04:45:48 pm »

Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

I believe it, there's certainly been evidence for you. If you want to allude to Iguana's suspicions, that would alleviate any remaining doubt I have.

Sorry for trying to kill you D1. And D2. I guess I was the one scum was laughing at D1. All the more so if Simon flips scum.

In light of that, this makes me strongly suspect Robz now that I'm reasonably confident 4 of the 5 on his wagon for the main part of D1 were town, with him as the odd man out. I'd still rather persecute the swimmers at this point in time. That threesome of {Robz, DatSwan, Raptor} is creepy-crawling with scum, mark my words. Or maybe not.


His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...

In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,

I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.


Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum. I highly disagree that we get nothing out of him flipping. If he were town, that would all but force me to vote Robz (though it might be too late because I'm basically guaranteed to be the lynch tomorrow if that happens). And if he were scum, that would all but clear EFHW for me, one of YOUR top scumreads (I don't believe Raptor busses EFHW given a totally equal option between her and ss once he goes VLA. Unless both are scum). You say there's not damning evidence that he's scum; what damning evidence do you have that anybody's scum? You have now elevated up my scumread list for that post.

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?
Logged
He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

Simon Jester

  • Golem
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 185
  • Shuffle iT Username: hockeyzemlan
  • changed life, changed everything
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #586 on: August 19, 2018, 04:56:20 pm »

Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

Interesting. I have to do a reread.

I don't mind SpaceA:s comment on my low-utility, compared to an engaged town!Robz or town!silver I'm a better mislynch, but eh, don't mislynch me.
Logged
S

Xxraptorslayer96

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Xxraptorslayer
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #587 on: August 19, 2018, 06:27:22 pm »

Here is where I am at, I was not online and I didnít have service at the time of day end. Before I left for my trip I cast my vote for the person that had the most votes and I thought was a better choice between the two (there was a tie at the time). I stated that I was going to be vla 48 hours before I left and stated what I was going to do. I felt I was better off leaving my vote on someone with a wagon vs someone random. If you choose not to believe me thatís fine but I donít some any explanation for skumpster ďseeing me online that dayĒ.

I also believe the possible team is skumpy, silver and ??

They seem to have a lot of trust for each other that I simply would not give to to another player unless I knew their  alignment.

I also believe TAís claim. Donít think we would lie.
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #588 on: August 19, 2018, 07:46:16 pm »

Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum.

I was willing to give it another day, but TA's new revelation means we have more PoE to play with, so I'll put him back in my pool.

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #589 on: August 19, 2018, 07:54:10 pm »

Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

Catching up - but first..

I am inclined to believe that this is true.

Neither of them voted for each other at any point in time.
Then at the end of D1 they moved TOGETHER from wagon to wagon until the Galz lynch.

TA is removed from my pool for now.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #590 on: August 19, 2018, 07:56:52 pm »

White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.

Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #591 on: August 19, 2018, 08:00:53 pm »

And while I'm dissecting Swan's post:

Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...

Might I suggest that instead of using "boys and girls", you try on some alternatives like "everyone", "folks", "towns and scums", or "assorted netizens"? Such phrases would not only be more attention-grabbing and linguistically fun, but also more accurate for your current audience, too :-)

mb Space, I forget sometimes.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #592 on: August 19, 2018, 08:12:49 pm »

Okay, here's an attempt at distilling Swan's big long post at #487 into something more concise.

1. Masons shoot stuff. This was unknown to most players.

2. He posts the vote count as of #396, which was current through till #421 when EFHW switched, and hypothesizes that there is at least one scum on each of the wagons amongst the non-conf!town players. Leaving his name in the pool this time, this gives:
  • At least one scum in {silver, Space, Swan, gkrieg EFHW}
  • At least one scum in {Robz, Skumpy, TA, Simon}
3. He claims that Skumpy was the only present-and-active person capable of hammering Simon. Not sure why that's such a big point, or where Iguana went in his reasoning.

4. He then ignores all his previous reasoning, and points out that silver is super-scummy because he posted intent to switch as we reached the two-minutes-to-deadline mark, and switched with under 60 seconds to spare, and this timing contributes to him being "scummy as hell".

5. A contributing factor to silver's scumminess is that he was Galz's top scumread, which has nothing to do with all the preceding vote analysis either.


Additional notes/opinions from me:

1. I have no idea what Swan means by "IDK its not hammer hammer" -- I can't see any post of silver's matching that.

2. I think it would be weird that scum!silver would stick with his stated scumread till 47 seconds before the deadline if he's really interested in lynching Galz, when super!townie!Iguana's pleas were clearly justification enough for other moves from Simon to Galz only a few minutes earlier.

1) I admitted to my stupidity already.

2) I will of course leave myself out of PoV posts. Not sure if this was just an updated list or what?

3) Skumpy being the only present and active person is a HUGE point. It means we had someone around and they did not hammer... Since Galz and the person leading the Galz lynch both flipped TOWN... it is absolutely relevant. And I took the II bit out because they of course had already flipped town, so their intent is irrelevant from this perspective.

4) I do not understand how this undermines my previous reasoning. If it is regarding the "only person that can hammer" I would point out that SS couldn't hammer.. then they switched, then they hammered.

5) Galz was Town. Galz is right... a lot... as town. It is def a side point, but I am not going to not factor it in.

Additional:
 
1) So it would be bc of posts like this :
Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
Where SS could not actually do what they were saying - as Galz was L-2.

2) Right. It is weird. Almost like SS was either aware it was a TvT wagon not wanting it to go to No Lynch or aware they were bussing super hard on Simon and wanted to make sure Galz was the lynch.


This is unlike you. All this information is like... very readily available. I am not really inferring anything from posts, the posts are just there and I pointed them out.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #593 on: August 19, 2018, 08:24:31 pm »

I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #594 on: August 19, 2018, 08:34:26 pm »

I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #595 on: August 19, 2018, 08:35:19 pm »

I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
But TA is a mason and II is dead town and I do not think Raptor is skum. But if you wanna get a EFHW thing going I am on board.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 78
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #596 on: August 19, 2018, 08:48:51 pm »

You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 78
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #597 on: August 19, 2018, 08:49:15 pm »

You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Addressed to Space
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #598 on: August 19, 2018, 10:00:10 pm »

Sorry guys. School is starting up soon and I may not have anough time for this. Iíll see how it goes though.
Logged

Xxraptorslayer96

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Xxraptorslayer
    • View Profile
Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #599 on: August 19, 2018, 11:04:08 pm »

All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way.

Sorry IRL stuff didnít let me get more involved as I was out of town once things got rolling.  But I donít think you helped find scum very much day 1 either.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 [24] 25 26 ... 41  All
 

Page created in 0.143 seconds with 20 queries.