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Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 145008 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #500 on: August 16, 2018, 12:37:47 pm »

One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.

Surely if lots of people present were scum, then they'd be more likely to make up a flimsy reason to hammer, rather than sticking to their guns.

I don't know what you mean about "Space came in late" -- I was around and posting consistently from about half an hour before deadline. However, I was also one of the people scureading Simon and I'd stated that Galz was not someone I was interested in voting D1 (see post #258), so it should have been clear to anyone there that I wasn't really willing to switch.

I didn't want any voting shenanigans to mess things in the end (false hammers etc -- there was a lot going on and loads of PPEs), so I cast a last-second L+1-style vote to avoid all possibility of a no-lynch.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #501 on: August 16, 2018, 12:44:56 pm »

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

I could have hammered Galz, but had no scuread on him, and had stated unwillingness to vote him. Even if I was only reading Simon as mildly scummy, because of a bit of flail in regard to the "scumslip" thing (and general omgus, and the fact that D1 scumreads are generally vague), the contrast between that scumread and a null-townread on Galz (plus meta and the fact I'd already said I'd rather not vote there) meant it wasn't exactly a big dilemma.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #502 on: August 16, 2018, 12:51:07 pm »

If you want to scrutinise people for not hammering, I think it really matters which person they didn't hammer, and why.

As for avoiding no-lynch, I'm never sure about that one. I think I'm almost as concerned about the meta, and how it influences others' reads, as I am about the direct consequences. Of course if we don't lynch, we lose our only mechanism in for killing off scums, and we have a pretty small finite number of chances over the course of the game. OTOH, if people are really convinced with 10 minutes to go till deadline that the only possible options are townies, it hardly seems likely that killing a super-high-confidence townie is the right answer. For now, I'm erring on the side of making sure a lynch goes through.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #503 on: August 16, 2018, 12:59:14 pm »

I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?

I think you might have missed the following:

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.

There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.

Not sure about that.

Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.

Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.

I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P

OK, we're on the same page then. Minus the PR hunting because it always seems like more of a shot in the dark than anything else to me, but it's no matter.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #504 on: August 16, 2018, 01:14:07 pm »

There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?

In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?

In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #505 on: August 16, 2018, 01:19:47 pm »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #506 on: August 16, 2018, 01:22:03 pm »

Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.

One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.

Excuse me, that doesn't point to me at all. I had a clear preference and waited literally until a minute left before I gave up my preference to ENSURE that there was a lynch. I'm well aware that my reads aren't good enough to make no-lynch preferable, and I played accordingly.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #507 on: August 16, 2018, 01:24:13 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #508 on: August 16, 2018, 01:30:07 pm »

so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #509 on: August 16, 2018, 01:35:37 pm »

And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?

PPE 4
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #510 on: August 16, 2018, 01:36:04 pm »


Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.

In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?

Yes, because there's such a low percentage of that. If this exact scenario was to appear dozens of times, and we lose the game once as a direct result of thinking there was only 1 town RB, I'm fine with that. Just because something could be the case doesn't mean we should treat it as a realistic possibility.

In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?

'Good town PR' is very relative. I don't expect to see any useful RB's happening, since there's probably a full strongman plus a scum RBer crawling around. 'Not necessarily believed': Either they get CC'd or they don't.

 It could very well be that it's more useful later. But if that's the case, then the mason probably shouldn't claim either. Here's the other thing you have to remember: not claiming doesn't guarantee both, or even just one, make it to D3 alive. If the lead wagon ends up being on a PR and they have to claim to save themselves, then that's a waste. And scum probably has some ideas on who they are as well, and can push that lynch and/or aim the NK.  Something to salvage while we stlil can? I don't know!
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #511 on: August 16, 2018, 01:37:49 pm »


Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.


Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again.  If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #512 on: August 16, 2018, 01:38:50 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #513 on: August 16, 2018, 01:40:24 pm »


Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.


Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again.  If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.

No paraphrasing allowed either?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #514 on: August 16, 2018, 01:43:09 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #515 on: August 16, 2018, 01:49:04 pm »

And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

It may be a case of too scummy to be scum. On the other hand, if simon was mafia, there was quite a lot at stake. I think I agree.

I'm probably the only one who wants to lynch simon. I don't understand where all this "town vs town" talk is coming from. It looked to me like a town vs scum wagon.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #516 on: August 16, 2018, 01:49:50 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.

That's fine. I don't scumread you for it, I think.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #517 on: August 16, 2018, 01:50:48 pm »

let's try. vote: simon

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #518 on: August 16, 2018, 02:30:35 pm »

Seems like an interesting end of D1, bummed that I missed it. I’m going to read though it again and trying to figure out if who I think is scummy based on the time stamps. I’ll post more content tonight.

Swan and I also have a big event on Saturday, maybe a bit busy still then.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #519 on: August 16, 2018, 04:21:24 pm »

And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?

PPE 4
I switched because no one was hammering. Iguana's point was reinforcing of the decision. I didn't hammer later because someone started talking to me irl and then I had to catch up to figure out what people were doing and why.

I don't see why you are mocking my factual comments that I put each person to L1 and no one hammered either time.

I realized later that you didn't come in late. Sorry. That was just how I remembered it for some reason.

I think it is informative to hear how people were deciding what to do. Everyone is on the defensive suddenly!

It seems like DatSwan had info about raptor the rest of us didn't.  Unavoidable but a factor to consider.



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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #520 on: August 16, 2018, 04:30:25 pm »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



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If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers.   Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #521 on: August 16, 2018, 04:33:33 pm »

Iguana's point contributed to my feeling both wagons were on town.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #522 on: August 17, 2018, 04:30:42 am »

Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
why wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
 
Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
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LaLight

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #523 on: August 17, 2018, 05:03:13 am »

What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.1


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Twistedarcher (1): Simon Jester
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting: (5) Robz888, Twistedarcher, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Skumpy

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #524 on: August 17, 2018, 05:16:03 am »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space

If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers.   Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?

Because the nonhammerers present were me and Iguana. You know one's town, you'll find out the other is town.

The amount of evidence in favor of Simon is so overwhelming, I find it strange ss still wants to vote there. If he is scum, he needs two partners. EFHW/Simon isn't a thing. Simon/ss isn't a thing. Skumpy/Simon isn't a thing. That's already a big reduction in the number of people who he could be partnered with. And that's just me being cursory, I could've probably done better. Iguana made a better case for him that I can.



I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):

Vote: Raptor

After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"
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