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Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 144950 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #475 on: August 16, 2018, 12:45:39 am »

I'm vla until Sat, but will try to catch up now.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #476 on: August 16, 2018, 12:51:36 am »

I'd rather have an IC today.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #477 on: August 16, 2018, 01:00:46 am »

A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.

I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading  iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #478 on: August 16, 2018, 03:15:22 am »

OK so before anything - there are back to back Vote Counts labeled as 1.11 and it cost me roughly an hour of my life trying to figure out why I was insane while I went through all of this. Kidding, but not :P but also it is back to back 1.11's.

Ahem...


1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*

3) Yes, there has to be a multi-shot RB since Galz flipped 1-Shot RB.

4) Mason should not claim today. Dumb. Math is fun, just do it. In Town's worst case scenario (albeit, given said mason is not lynched or killed), their claim value tomorrow is way more valuable tomorrow than it is today.

5) VCA from yesterday
There are two different ways to look at the actions of yesterday. We now know that Galz was Town (less important), but we also know that II was Town. At the end of the day, there was a lot of non movement, followed by a lot of movement. I need to go and break down how the Galz wagon pick up to begin with piece by piece, but towards the end I have it down. Here where we were are at 1.11:
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester

We know that Galz and II are Town and that XXR wasn't moving. The day draws very very close to end and no one wants to jump any ship. It would either take 2 people out of SS, Space, Swan, JK, EFHW to hammer Galz... or 1 person out of Robz, II, Skumpy, TA to hammer Simon.

I am going to go ahead and remove myself from my own logic moving forward, feel free to re do it under a difference precedent.
At this point there are two pools of players:
1) The players on Simon [SS, Space, GK, EFHW]
2) The players on Galz [Robz, Skumpy, TA]

From my PoV there are 4 unknowns on 1 wagon, and 3 unknowns on the other. So I find it unlikely... like extremely unlikely... that all three skum are on the same wagon at this point. I am not ready to yet dive into "how many on each" so for now, I am just going with there is at least 1 on each (also the XXR factor to be potentially added in).

At 1.11 - Any of Robz, Skumpy, or TA could of switched onto Simon and hammered them. This obv did not happen. Also not to be forgotten, unknown to the time Town!II could of hammered as well.
At 1.11 - 2 of any out of SS, Space, GK, EFHW could of collectively hammered Town!Galz.

--- Here is the fun part. At this point in time, Robz had been absent with no intent of joining. Also TA had just "had enough" with the False New nonsense and said they were out. So, from any earning town PoV (or skum for that matter), neither of those players were moving.

Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...


My above note is not speculation, getting ahead of that now. Robz had been Semi VLA like the entire game and there was no reason to believe he was to be here at the DL. Even if he "was expected" we are talking about a matter of 16 minutes at this point. I am torn on the TA-bailing thing because I both think that was a weak-ass move but also it makes my skin curl whenever anyone uses the phrase "Fake News". Either way - important note is that assuming from a Town POV - neither of them were coming back.

This leaves exactly one player left capable of hammering Simon - Skumpster.

Then, we have me and SS stating we do not want to go over to Galz, and there is some speculation stuff and whatever you can go and read it yourself... and then... EFHW switches over to Galz (super weakly I might add) due to "Town!II making a good statement".

This flips the wagon. Now it is 1.12 (or 1.11x2)

EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW

So at this point, after the EFHW switch we have a brief period of time in which Galz was L-1 (like less than 3 minutes). Now, what makes it fun is that II switched off onto Simon (but since we know Galz and II were both Town this means about dick). However, when II switches to Galz, it flips the wagon back to Simon L-1 and Galz L-2.
NOWWWWWWW, of the active players, either Skumpy OR EFHW can hammer Simon.

Instead what happens is SS says "if no one hammers Simon in the next minute I will hammer Galz". Then, if they didn't already know, there was an updated VC showing that Galz was L-2, in addition to my statement "Someone hammer Simon". Not to mention the numerous point outs of how the hammer situation was not the same in many messages prior given the switches. Then SS voted anyways. And then of course II hammered which I wasted 2 days of paranoia on.... but they flipped Town.


So here is where I am at. We know II and Galz are Town, and we know who was present and not. We can deal with the present vs the not present later - because whether the not present were skum or town, if skum knew they were not present they would still act accordingly and town would have to do so as well. This obv gives skum the upper hand, but again, we can do better speculation now than on that concept.

I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW.
with one speculation.
If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

EFHW did the weird switch back and forth thing, which is skummy af and they need to be looked at (and if SS gets lynched and is town it is like 100% efhw)... but, if SS is skum and EFHW is town then EFHW would be choosing between two unknown wagons just trying to push the lynch through.

SS is just skummy as hell. The random "IDK its not hammer hammer", the timing of votes, just like everything. Not to mention conf!Town Galz top skum read.

Vote: SilverSpawn

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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #479 on: August 16, 2018, 03:21:04 am »

A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.

I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading  iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?

And also I'd imagine there's scum pushing Galz. Not Iguana, not me, I still feel there's evidence pointing away from Simon (I definitely don't feel like scum!Simon wants to deflect from the Galz wagon; could be wrong). So unless no scum was on the main push for Galz, which I suppose is also a possibility, that leaves Robz and TA for me. But I shouldn't be hasty, especially after my D1 performance. There's a lot of day left, and lot of discussion to happen, and I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

 Unvote

I'd rather have an IC today.



If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?

PPE: Lots of Swan
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #480 on: August 16, 2018, 03:24:43 am »

What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #481 on: August 16, 2018, 03:41:46 am »

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #482 on: August 16, 2018, 03:43:27 am »

gtg, I read your post, I don't understand how you come from the analysis to the conclusion that I'm scum at all, but I might have misread something. Will read again and comment later.

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #483 on: August 16, 2018, 03:48:20 am »

Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.

To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.

The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #484 on: August 16, 2018, 04:23:46 am »

Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?

Scum RB takes priority over town!rb. Town!rbs resolve in an order of making order timewise.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #485 on: August 16, 2018, 04:51:27 am »

I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

This didn't happen. Sorry.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Actually, I'm tabling that opinion in the last paragraph for now. I didn't think it through well enough.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #486 on: August 16, 2018, 05:54:38 am »

Just writing to say I'm here. Still trying to understand what happened the previous day and how it could be that I'm still alive. That was an odd deadline..
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #487 on: August 16, 2018, 06:17:20 am »

Ok I reread it and I still don't understand the argument. I wanted one player to be lynched, I waited until literally less than a minute time left trying to make it happen, then I switched and got the other guy lynched, who was town. So... ???

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #488 on: August 16, 2018, 06:35:41 am »

So...

I know it was in fact a town versus town situation yesterday. Before we went for Galz we had a wagon stuck for TA for quite a long time, when it didn't lead anywhere it got switched. I think that was a mistake.

vote: TA

I think I would prefer if the second mason claimed today.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #489 on: August 16, 2018, 09:20:14 am »

I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?

I think you might have missed the following:

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #490 on: August 16, 2018, 09:48:09 am »

Not sure about that.

Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.

Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.

I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #491 on: August 16, 2018, 10:04:01 am »

Swan, Masons do not shoot.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #492 on: August 16, 2018, 11:11:59 am »

Swan, Masons do not shoot.

Scum are masons tha shoot
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #493 on: August 16, 2018, 11:43:24 am »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #494 on: August 16, 2018, 11:55:32 am »

Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
silver, why did you say this? Enough people were present to prevent a no lynch, snd you couldn't hammer anyway.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #495 on: August 16, 2018, 11:59:25 am »

It should pretty clear given my late move from the silver wagon that I had no agenda towards Galz or simon. I was just trying to help us get a lynch. When I put simon to L1, no one hammered. Why was that?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #496 on: August 16, 2018, 12:10:07 pm »

Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.

One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #497 on: August 16, 2018, 12:15:10 pm »

What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....

I was reading Neighborizor where as Mason, that's mb.

There is obv another mason then.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #498 on: August 16, 2018, 12:16:12 pm »

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #499 on: August 16, 2018, 12:22:42 pm »

Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.

To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.

The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.

I don't think Raptor checked in that day? I could be wrong but I believe he was in a no service zone like almost all the way through N1.

Yes if it was town v town wagon then obviously it doesn't give skum a whole lot of reason to panic and etc... which is kind of my point for wanting to not lynch Simon I guess. The way the day played out, guess both Galz and Simon could be Town. I like the concept of isolating the wagon in this instance, seems pretty sustainable. I thought Simon and silverspawn were skummy (or as skummy as one can be on D1) yesterday, and the end of day actions make me think moreso. So silver it is for now.
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