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Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 144973 times)

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iguanaiguana

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #450 on: August 13, 2018, 06:59:40 pm »

That was the worst ever
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #451 on: August 13, 2018, 06:59:49 pm »

Sorry, just missed
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #452 on: August 13, 2018, 06:59:54 pm »

vote: galz

Just in case.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #453 on: August 13, 2018, 06:59:58 pm »

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
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LaLight

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #454 on: August 13, 2018, 07:00:03 pm »

THREAD LOCKED
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #455 on: August 13, 2018, 07:01:12 pm »

What do you feel now?

Vote Count 1.final


EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (7): Robz888, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW, silverspawn, iguanaiguana

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.
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LaLight

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #456 on: August 13, 2018, 07:05:08 pm »

You remembered your days in the kindergarten. Lots of children, grownups trying to tell you what to do, what not to do. You were always a good kid, you never offended little animals, you were always respectful to others. But you got yelled and yelled on and on. "Don't play your music when I am trying to sleep!" "Those pictures belong to the trash!" "Your poems are better never been heard of!"

You realized that was when you lost the ability to be Inspired.

Galzria was Inspired, Town 1-shot Roleblocker.

Have a good night. It will end in 46 hours, 15th of August at 5 pm FT.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #457 on: August 15, 2018, 05:05:52 pm »

Here was a flavor text about how you can not be happy any more and that iIguanaiguana, the Town Mason, was killed.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 04:57:33 am by LaLight »
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gkrieg13

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #458 on: August 15, 2018, 05:25:09 pm »

Wow that sucks.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #459 on: August 15, 2018, 05:35:56 pm »

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #460 on: August 15, 2018, 05:38:01 pm »

Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #461 on: August 15, 2018, 05:39:10 pm »

Iguana's dead. Shocker. I'd imagine the other mason claims, but I could be persuaded otherwise.

Simon's obviously unknown, but I'm still agreeing with Iguana posthumously, it's very pointed to a dual-town wagon. And if it's not, there's not many possibilities for the scum that's not bussing (though Raptor's activity the day of the lynch complicates matters).

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

This + scum probably wants somebody on the Galz wagon, I have to do a Vote: TA.

PPE: gkrieg. Yay.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #462 on: August 15, 2018, 05:45:33 pm »

Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.

I've never played with masons, i could believe in it.

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Yeah, yeah, I know. Gotta type something in before the day ends, that's what comes to mind. I'm not really inclined to talk about it, but:
1) Why EFHW didn't vote in the 90 seconds I gave her, I don't know.
2) If I don't vote in the last minute, I look really scummy. So of course I'm going to vote after those 90 seconds.

That post was honest, I had the vote ready, hit preview, well never mind then. The panic was unnecessary.

I'm expecting the wagon on me pretty quick here, regardless. It's still as wrong as ever, nothing's changed. Ask me anything you want, all you're getting is straight up truthbombs.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #463 on: August 15, 2018, 05:49:20 pm »

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Note that I took 6 minutes to respond to 2 things just now. I don't ever post rushed things, I always proofread like 3 times and still let typos bleed through. So there's a very good reason why my posts look scummy close to deadline when I have to rush them. I already play with admittedly one of the scummiest tones of anyone in the game, I sometimes have had to make efforts as town to not look scummy.

Ok, floor is everybody else's.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #464 on: August 15, 2018, 06:09:38 pm »

Also, for those who didn't read back after Galz's flip to see what the setup now sits at:

1-shot Roleblocker -> at least 2 B's = definitely exists a town roleblocker.
Iguana = Mason -> at least 1 M

So scum has at most 3 T's.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #465 on: August 15, 2018, 06:19:19 pm »

Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:

frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046

The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.

This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #466 on: August 15, 2018, 06:24:37 pm »

Ah, no, we're good. The unaccompanied pdocs come from "E" rolls :-)
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #467 on: August 15, 2018, 06:31:05 pm »

Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:

frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046

The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.

This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?
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Robz888

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #468 on: August 15, 2018, 06:56:11 pm »

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #469 on: August 15, 2018, 07:08:18 pm »

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.

If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #470 on: August 15, 2018, 07:18:22 pm »

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.

If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
And D3 is better, until it gets CC'd. I honestly don't know, just playing devil's advocate.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #471 on: August 15, 2018, 07:19:28 pm »

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.

I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

PPE 1
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #472 on: August 15, 2018, 07:30:37 pm »

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.

It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #473 on: August 15, 2018, 07:46:56 pm »

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.

I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

PPE 1

A Day 3 IC is of course better, except that scum can counterclaim a Day 3 IC with greater confidence of success.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #474 on: August 15, 2018, 08:30:05 pm »

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.

It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.

Not sure about that.

It's a little Monty Hall-esque in the sense that if there's a bunch of PR's hiding behind doors, you're more likely to stumble upon them when you start opening doors than if there were fewer. If there are indeed only the 4 known PR's, then it's harder to find them first because there are fewer options to be right, as opposed to 5 or 6. And I do believe in independence, certainly for Galz, and close enough for Iguana. In fact, if anything, super-independent for Galz because not claiming makes me lean more towards VT than PR.

Without much simulation experience admittedly, I'd imagine it would be a bit more accurate to assign specific players roles after the dice rolls, and after seeing flips, narrow down the possibilities to those specifically involving 'Player A was X' and 'Player B was Y'. But that does seem very inefficient and cumbersome, and again, it doesn't changes the probabilities a lot.

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