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Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 108258 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #850 on: August 24, 2018, 06:39:21 pm »

like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.

But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?

If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.

Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you admit that the original argument doesn't make any sense? If yes I can try to understand what new point you're making.

I've bolded the bit where you claim that we know there was indeed a five-towns-on-town wagon with no scum interference. You can't know that if you don't know my alignment.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #851 on: August 24, 2018, 06:44:12 pm »

Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?

Why would we follow your reads list?  Especially when it is nearly the exact opposite of mine.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #852 on: August 24, 2018, 06:44:43 pm »

Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #853 on: August 24, 2018, 06:45:10 pm »

So your point is that you were on the wagon?

I had no idea who was on the wagon. I don't even remember having had an early wagon in day 1. It's not really something important. I just took your word for it that there was one and that only town was on it.

Something went wrong this game if I'm having to defend myself from having had you and two other people vote for me early on.
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #854 on: August 24, 2018, 06:48:45 pm »

Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?

Because I was making the list based on a vague estimate of how towny people 'ought' to be right now based on wagon positions and such, not on my personal reads. I don't expect people to townread me as much as skumpy. I'm pretty sure I'm harder to read.
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #855 on: August 24, 2018, 06:52:50 pm »

well I'm off to sleep. no way I'm claiming before raptor.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #856 on: August 24, 2018, 06:54:39 pm »

While I'm arguing wagons. The Galz wagon was started by Robz at #313. Just over 80 posts later, it is again a wagon on town with five people, most of whom have now flipped town. The two who have not are Robz and Skumpy, so I'm confident that at least one of the two is scum.

Then from yesterday's play, I think there has to be one scum in {Skumpy, gkrieg, Raptor}, because that wagon endured for hundreds of posts, and the other later participants have now also both flipped town.

This isn't quite enough to solve the game on its own, but all it takes is a small number of "X is obviously not partners with Y" to narrow it down.

Anyway, I'm afraid it's bed for me for now. I would caution town against buying too much into the silver and Skumpy show if they continue to chat and suggest changing the claim list and stuff some more now!

PPE 5: yeah, sleep is good!
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #857 on: August 24, 2018, 06:58:15 pm »

If either Raptor or gkrieg are town who have been tunneling me relentlessly this whole game, this is already over.

I don't want to vote Silver. That's a game-losing lynch on D3, because I'm next if he's scum. If town's winning this, I need to prove myself.

I'm done waiting, here's what I typed up 47 hours ago. It's harsh. It's over-the-top. It's also very amusing at this point in time. I'm taking out the bold of the vote for now...that will come later. Hopefully soon. (I also wrote 'basically LYLO' before I knew somebody was going to shoot my biggest townread)




(Disclaimer: Profanity restrained and edited out as much as possible: that doesnít mean there isnít any)

Iím mad. Iím very, very mad. Mad at Awaclus for the usual reasons. Mad at Swan for not reading my posts. Mad at LaLight for terrifying me with the flavor. Mad at myself. Mad at Faust, and he isnít even in this game. Not mad at the scum team, you guys have been great!

Two dead townies have accused silver with their dying breath. Town all thinks Iím teamed with him. I should probably be voting there to have the best chance of being right. I said if Swanís town, heís scum. Super suspicious that Iím not, right? Well, Iím beyond caring.

Vote: Gkrieg

Rational side first. This is basically LYLO. No strongman roleblockling is happening tonight. If gkriegís going to be voting for me, again, no matter who I vote for, then 3 scum get to pile on and then itís all over. Yes, there could be 2 RBís who counterclaim each other and thatís where the vote gets placed. Maybe gkriegís even the town RB, heaven forbid. Doesnít matter. Thereís no way he votes where I vote today. Therefore, Iím forced into counter-voting my voter.

Less rational side as I let emotions take hold: No, no, and no again. Life is too short for me to have spent more than 1/26 of 2018 letting you accuse me and me going, ďno, no, itís fine. I get it. Good call!Ē Iím past that. If youíre scum, Iím not letting you win this game and bring home the MVP without taking on a single vote this whole goddamn time. And if youíre town, I may have been awful and as I said, Iím more than comfortable taking the LVP, but youíve been just as bad. Iíve at least thrown out a scum name at some point. You havenít. So let this be a lesson before you get confident and tunnel me relentlessly an entire game. Donít ever pull that shit again, no matter how convinced you are. Ignore that if youíre scum, seriously well played.

If you townies arenít convinced by anything at all, vote me and letís get this over with, no need to prolong this disaster any longer. Scum, please do the same if Iím wrong.

Rantís over. Love you all, Iím sure youíre all great people with great character. How is everybody feeling today? Any fun weekend plans?



As for the logical stuff I promised:
I haven't played well enough this game for all 3 scum to not vote me D2, despite the fact that I maintain I had a very good case on Swan. There's scum in gkrieg and Raptor. If I'm wrong, they're coming for me anyways, what I can do?

If Raptor is scum without gkrieg, then it's either:

Raptor/Space/EFHW
Raptor/Space/Silver
Raptor/Space/Robz
Raptor/EFHW/Silver
Raptor/EFHW/Robz
Raptor/Silver/Robz

By gkrieg's own admission, he can read Space. If he's town and they're scum, I'm definitely holding him very accountable, though I'll take 2nd prize.
I believe I was wrong, that EOD2 interaction doesn't seem like team infighitng between Raptor and Silver. Could be wrong. DatSwan also knows Raptor, I'll put some faith in that read. Swan was very wrong about one thing though; give scum more credit than 'they've been OK'.
And if Silver's town and Raptor's scum, Raptor doesn't put the vote on scum!EFHW before VLA. Especially since my vote's not going to ss.

Gkrieg it is for me.

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #858 on: August 24, 2018, 06:58:37 pm »

Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?
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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #859 on: August 24, 2018, 07:46:13 pm »

Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:

Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy

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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #860 on: August 24, 2018, 08:08:18 pm »

Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you.

Vig: Do not claim 1-shot or full. We're at 4 known non-T's. Scum cannot tell the difference between 4 and 5
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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #861 on: August 24, 2018, 10:19:54 pm »

Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you
Yes, I realize that.
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LaLight

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #862 on: August 25, 2018, 02:36:34 am »

Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?

Sure, but donít use AA00AA plz
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #863 on: August 25, 2018, 05:00:52 am »

How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:

Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy

Tht's fine with me.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #864 on: August 25, 2018, 05:34:50 am »

I wasn't expecting that from EFHW, but it helps us a lot with PoE on inactive players if it's true. I don't like how far down her claim list my biggest scumread is sitting, though, so I'm maintaining some scepticism until we know if anyone is going to counterclaim.

In fact, would it be worth doing a round of yes/no to whether anyone is counterclaiming EFHW before proceeding with the claims? As I said earlier, there is a small risk that we do have two genuine RBs (not counting the scum one), but I also think that's further reduced now that we've seen two kills in a relatively small number of players.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #865 on: August 25, 2018, 06:13:22 am »

Ahh, I was totally off by a day. Iíve just done a quick read through. I donít mind EFHWís claims list. Iíll check in to claim tomorrow.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #866 on: August 25, 2018, 06:25:26 am »

Here's my case on silver. This is probabilistic, rather than anything based on slips and tells, but then he's a very experienced player, so it's not surprising.

1) I actually disagreed with most of Galz's case on him early on, because I thought that what Galz was scumreading was just silver's style. I'm defensive about that because I aim to play in a Bayesian style too.

2) The first alarm bell was when I looked at the voting patterns in N1 and noticed that from my point of view, everyone voting for silver at #219 was town, and yet no scums were attracted to that wagon:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (3): SpaceAnemone, Galzria, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Awaclus (2): Robz888, Skumpy
EFHW (4): silverspawn, Awaclus, Simon Jester, Xxraptorslayer96
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
As I say, this was very weak evidence, because people were aware that my vote had been RVS. Iguana diverted to the EFHW wagon not long after.

3) silver started the Simon wagon at #244, and it grew quite rapidly. Here's what that looked like at #289 at #313; nobody else moved on or off in between.
#289
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Awaclus (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Awaclus

#313
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Awaclus (2): Skumpy, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Awaclus
Robz888 (1): Simon Jester
Galzria (1): Robz888
I argue that this is strong evidence, because five towns on a townie, without attracting even one vote from scum in the interim is unusual. Here's a post I made over a year ago, back in RMM43 about chances of all-town-on-town wagons happening in D1. I'd been using exactly this sort of wagon analysis to point out that at least one of Haddock and faust were scum based on a D1 wagon, and I was right, but couldn't get traction/support because they were both scum and nobody else in the game was quite numbersy enough to support it.

Note: I've left EFHW green in these counts because I was exploring how that looked on my own vote history view, and forgot to turn the option off before spitting out the f.ds-printable one. I guess if Raptor has now checked in and is not counterclaiming, that's positive, because he's one of the people I had thought might do so.
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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #867 on: August 25, 2018, 11:13:37 am »

I see what you are saying but I have a reason to keep the order as it is.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #868 on: August 25, 2018, 01:07:05 pm »

I see what you are saying but I have a reason to keep the order as it is.

Well, as I said, I'm colouring you green for now, so I guess I'll bite.

That means it's Robz up next, then Raptor.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #869 on: August 25, 2018, 01:14:47 pm »

Not very active now. Just waiting for my turn.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #870 on: August 25, 2018, 03:09:56 pm »

I donít love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #871 on: August 25, 2018, 03:53:04 pm »

I donít love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?

I think at this point, stalling is only in scum's interest, because it gives us less time to strategise after the claims are out.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #872 on: August 25, 2018, 04:33:58 pm »

I donít love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?

You do realize that we have a RB and that she is non-countered and therefore an IC? Who told you to claim? What are you doing?
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #873 on: August 25, 2018, 04:36:27 pm »

I donít love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?

I think at this point, stalling is only in scum's interest, because it gives us less time to strategise after the claims are out.

No, I think this probably makes Robz town. As town you feel more strongly that you shouldn't have to claim early. If Robz where scum he'd know he'd be guilty, and then it's hard to justify wanting to claim after me. Especially for him, who has contributed almost nothing to the game.

But he absolutely needs to claim with his next post.
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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #874 on: August 25, 2018, 04:38:41 pm »

I mean, in the history of f.ds there was probably no scum who ever did anything with the conscious decision of trying to reduce the time that town has to do strategy talk. It's always anti town towns.
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