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Author Topic: Season 28 - Standings  (Read 3259 times)

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Season 28 - Standings
« on: June 03, 2018, 06:50:54 pm »

« Last Edit: June 04, 2018, 12:37:29 am by theory »


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Re: Season 28 - Standings
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2018, 05:47:26 pm »

Like last season I'm calculating forecasts of the league that simulate the outstanding games based on your rating. The results can be found here. They show the expected number of points after the season and the probability of finishing 1st to 6th for each player. (A-Division accounts for the champion match when it comes to the win probability but not for the expected points.)

To show the evolution over time, there are graphs for each division. They show the expected points for each player after each result that has been reported.
There are also graphs for each player. They show the probability of finishing 1st to 6th, calculated after each day of the season. They'll become more exciting once a few games have been played out.

The spreadsheet and graphs should be updated at least once daily.

If you have played in the league in the past, you'll also find yourself on the League Glicko Leaderboard. It calculates the rating parameters (mu,phi,sigma) for each player similar to the official leaderboard, using only the games played in the league. Now there are also graphs for each player that show the evolution of mu (best guess for skill) over time and the past results in the league.

Methodology for forecast:
All outstanding games are simulated 100,000 times. In each simulation, a player's skill is drawn from a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation phi as given by the current official leaderboard.
Tie probability is set to 2%, and the win probability is 98%/(1+exp(-(skill1+FPA-skill2))). FPA is the first player advantage set to 0.5 for each player in 3 of the 6 games. That corresponds to about a 60% win chance for the first player against an equal opponent.
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