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Author Topic: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Game over - Town Won!)  (Read 128114 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #650 on: July 13, 2018, 12:31:11 pm »

It should be noted however that LyLo/MyLo considerations should account for EFHW. I mean, it is still possible that scum's win condition is "have 50% of players be scum", but it is reasonable to assume with that kind of role that they'd actually have to control all of town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #651 on: July 13, 2018, 12:42:57 pm »

There are 10 people. Assume 3 scum.
Outing the other lover barely helps scums chances of killing both lovers. As I said any protection is still 50/50, and scum goes from at worst a 25% guess of robz other lover, and if any of Faust/galz/hydrad/haddock are scum that 25% goes drastically up.
Going up from 25% to 50% is pretty drastic in my book.

I think you are not getting what I am saying.

Scum currently has at worst a 25% chance of hitting robz lover. They potentially have a 33%, 50% or 100% chance of knowing who robz lover is based on how many of Faust/galz/hydrad/haddock are scum.

If robz lover claims there is a 50% chance they hit the unprotected lover. (And this is all based off your claimed protection which wasn’t used night 1 which doesn’t need to be explained but is relevant).

Again if robz lover doesn’t claim we don’t know he’s town and if you are town and are planning on protecting him (wifom), you could be wasting protection on scum.

There are so many benefits to having the other lover claim I think it outweighs the slightly increased chance in the lovers dying.

Mcmcsalot is making sense here.  There is also a possibility that there are other protective roles other than faust.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #652 on: July 13, 2018, 12:44:28 pm »

vote: IDPTG

Man you guys post a lot while I’m sleeping. Don’t really want to lynch Robz Today.

What about faust?

I would definitely lynch faust today.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #653 on: July 13, 2018, 12:45:05 pm »

I think Haddock would be a better lynch though.

Haddock?

I'll have to go back and look, but he has been scummy.  I don't exactly remember for what right now.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #654 on: July 13, 2018, 12:45:27 pm »

I would believe a lover claim from anyone right now.

Interesting.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #655 on: July 13, 2018, 12:47:51 pm »

That no one is claiming is indicative of Robz lying. If faust claimed to be Robz' lover I think it reconciles with his also claim of be protective from a balance perspective but not necessarily from a claiming to be protective on D1 perspective. If I were protective but had this big achilles heel of causing a town death when dying I'd avoid claiming my protective ability probably altogether but definitely not on D1. However, there's nothing preventing one of the pair of lovers from being scum. So, if faust claims to be Robz' lover and to also be town can he also claim to know that Robz is town like Robz claims to know his lover is town? If not, would faust consider that dying and removing his protective role from the game is worth killing scum if Robz is, in fact, scum?

Definitely lovers fakeclaim is unlikely to be backed up by another scum.  They can claim that they don't want to out their partner because they both die, and it won't look very scummy.  It is also something I can definitely see Robz doing.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #656 on: July 13, 2018, 12:49:59 pm »

I am a town Lover, my death imperils another member of the town.

Does your Lover know this?

I don't think I'm going to answer this.

THIS NEEDS TO BE EXPLAINED.

Why can’t you answer if your lover knows of your existence...this is so such a scummy part of the claim. I don’t get why everyone is fine leaving robz and lover claim with zero explaination, no supporting claim, this is ridiculous.

Mcmc is making a lot of sense.  Robz not realizing what information is scummy to withhold and what would normally be withheld if it were a real claim is a conspiracy theory I can hold on to.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #657 on: July 13, 2018, 12:50:51 pm »

If Galz is scum he has mind controlled this day perfectly because as far as i am concerned it's either faust or Robz.

I don't think that is what Galz said.  It was gkrieg/faust.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #658 on: July 13, 2018, 12:51:26 pm »

So robz hits l-1, as people are asking about he case, some supporting the lynch, some not. Then robz claims lover without any second claim, lots of people weighing in on it they believe him, if they don’t, most people unvote but of look no one is talking and creating an alternate wagon? It’s almost like scum is safe now and can rest...

Possibly some people who backed off are scum that know I'm telling the truth and it will look bad after my flip if they helped lynch me.

I do think you're town BTW, mcmc.

Haha, that's hilarious. I switched votes immediately because I expected a counterclaim and some analysis. Since we are not getting that I am perfectly fine lynching Robz. Go ahead and consider him +1 vote because if he goes to L-1 again I am going to hammer him.

You expected a counterclaim? I.e., someone saying, "No man, Robz isn't a Lover... I am!" That's a weird thing to expect.

I think it is obvious that PPS was expecting someone else to confirm the claim.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #659 on: July 13, 2018, 12:52:49 pm »

Mcmc, I relented and clarified that the other person does know.

Agreeing with mcmc. Robz is refusing to answer if the other person even knows much less who it actually is.

Yep he is most likely buying time to decide if a partner will voluntarily back him up, or if he should claim they don’t know and try to convince us that way.

The other person knows, but thinks it's best for him not to out himself, so he's not confirming anything.

I see I missed that. You “relenting” though is still so much scummier than just confirming that info right away. It’s like you were feeling out maybe claiming that the other lover didn’t know and then decided that would look too scummy.

Also your response to the criticism of people wanting your lover to claim I is scummy. Everything is pulling teeth.

This is your third statement after saying you know your lover is town and that you don’t think you should answer if your lover knows of you.
I mean, you will know I was a Lover when I'm suddenly dead after the other person dies, you dolts.

This is totally a scum oriented mindset. A town lover who’s on says I am a town lover thinks “when I flip you know I’m a lover”. A scum who is faking thinks “guys when my other lover dies you will know I am a lover because i’ll flip to”.  Also I’ve never heard you call someone a dolt.

None of this feels like organic town!lover robz at l-1 about to cause the death of two townies.

I have no idea what the second part of your post is even saying.

As for the first part, I initially was resistant to say whether the other person knows because I wasn't sure I wanted to reveal whether we had a QT together, which is sort of an implication of saying he knows.

You don't have to have a QT together to know the other lover. 

vote: Robz
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #660 on: July 13, 2018, 12:56:00 pm »

PPS is scummy in every game he plays. I'd go there for lacl of something better, tbh, cos i have never been able to read him.
Would probably prefer idtpg though?
vote: idptg

Isn't IDPTG also scummy in every game he plays?
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #661 on: July 13, 2018, 12:56:47 pm »

Sorry guys, had a paper deadline today.  What is scummy about PPS?

What isn't?

Consistency. The only anomaly was the gkrieg vote which was still consistent with townreading Galz. Otherwise, I’m pretty much convinced faust and/or Robz are scum and have been playing to that end. I am also feeling like if Robz is, indeed, a lover, the other person is faust but the fact that he won’t own it strikes me as scummy af. I made a pretty decent analysis of that hypothesis and it was summarily ignored.

Interesting.  This has a lot of self-awareness that I think is more likely to come from scum than town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #662 on: July 13, 2018, 12:57:55 pm »

Dunno what to post so I'm just kinda posting.

But I believe robzzz I guess. I didn't at the start of his claim 100% but the whole reaction afterwards leans town on me.

I'm still fine with IDPTG I guess but weird that he hasn't said anything for a while now.

What about his responses has been townie?
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #663 on: July 13, 2018, 12:58:27 pm »

this night I ate something really bad and I am so very sick. Sorry, I don't think I will be active today, I feel very badly

Feel better!
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #664 on: July 13, 2018, 12:59:03 pm »


Oh, did I reveal too much? After being badgered incessantly that I wasn’t revealing enough? Boo freaking hoo

Again this is not how a townie goes about this. You didn’t reveal too much, the fact that you have a qt means nothing to scum so there is zero reason to hide it. It all this info that doesn’t help scum at all but that you don’t want to reveal. Have you talked to your lover about weather or not they should claim in your qt?

I agree a lot with Mcmc here.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #665 on: July 13, 2018, 01:02:07 pm »

Is it possible for Robz to be a scum!lover and his partner be town?
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #666 on: July 13, 2018, 01:04:09 pm »

Okay so I know I’m sort of beating an at least bloody and maimed horse at this point but it’s still irking me.

10 players alive. Assume 7 town, 3 scum

Lovers lynch, nk = 4 town, 3 scum. Mylo

Mislynch, nk = 5 town, 3 scum. Mylo

Also as galz pointed out he is a role that potentially needs protecting and if we lynch potential lover robz that clears Faust up from possibly wasting protection on scum.

I still really strongly believe forcing robz lover to claim is the best thing to do.

Did we start this game with 12 people?  It seems like poor design to me if we get to MYLO on D3 of a game with only two factions.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #667 on: July 13, 2018, 01:05:56 pm »

It should be noted however that LyLo/MyLo considerations should account for EFHW. I mean, it is still possible that scum's win condition is "have 50% of players be scum", but it is reasonable to assume with that kind of role that they'd actually have to control all of town.

Good point here.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #668 on: July 13, 2018, 01:15:03 pm »

Oh I see, your post did come inbetween. My apologies for the confusion I should have quoted, it was directed at Faust.

Directed at galz, I see you are currently alone voting for pps. Faust and you went there but when haddock expressed interest in idp instead Faust quickly jumped here and was followed by lalight. I think this idp wagon is based solely on lurking which isn’t good, hydrad is on that wagon from long ago. What is your pps case and would you still want to lynch Faust? I definitely find him scummy.

Here's where I'm at:

From D1 through most of D2, I've had a null-ish to scum-ish read on you. The way you've been approaching the Robz situation however has definitely flipped that to a null-ish to town-ish read on you. If Robz is town and you are scum, this isn't outside the realm of how you might act, but I find the tone and consistency MORE in line with an unknown Robz alignment and you as town.

In regards to Faust, almost everything he posts in terms of his "methods", I've very strongly disagreed with. I've disagreed with his approach, his responses, his actions, his claim - everything. I find his play to be asinine for the sake of being asinine. Because of this, I keep being drawn back to wanting to lynch him. But somehow he keeps drawing the same conclusions that I draw, despite our methods of approach being drastically different. And this consistently gives me pause. I'm not convinced that I honestly think he's scum - at times I feel like I want him lynched simply because I don't like his style of play this game (in contrast, he and I often disagree, but I don't generally MIND his approach. Usually it's his approach I like, but I disagree with the conclusions he draws. Here it's the opposite.)

On to Robz - I don't want to lynch him... today. There are factors in play here that you, nor anybody else are aware of. If I do not die tonight, I will strongly consider revealing all the information I have tomorrow. If I do die tonight, you should lynch Robz tomorrow - no matter what he argues or says to the contrary.

As far as Gkrieg goes, I would still be ok with his lynch, but I think we can do better. I am almost 100% null on him at this point. The only content he's made has been stream of conscience posts upon returning - something that's very easy to do as scum, but also well within a standard town meta if you've been MIA for awhile.

All of this puts us at the following:

Don't care to lynch at this point in time:
Galz (duh), Mcmc, Robz, and.... probably Faust (4).

That leaves 6 players:
Hydrad, Haddock, PPS, LaLight, Gkrieg, IDPTG

Of those six, LaLight has, thusfar today, been the towniest. He's not exactly a town read, but I don't like the idea of lynching him.

I also don't like the IDPTG lynch for a number of reasons:
- It's more or less a LALL (sorry faust, WIDLAL is not a thing) lynch, which doesn't make it good.
- The base case, originally made by faust, was based on a bunch of stated reads that more or less came across as arbitrary. That is, he provided no backbone for any of them, and simply concluded that based on said reads, IDPTG must be scum.
- I don't like how quickly this wagon became a thing following Robz wagon dissipating. The fact that 3/4 of the wagon (Hydrad, Haddock, LaLight) are in the place I think scum most likely exists also gives me pause, even though it's possible they are all town themselves and the scum team could be PPS/IDPTG/Gkrieg (I have strong reasons to believe that the scum team are either 2 or 3, but not 4 members strong).

PPS is a much stronger lynch choice however, and when I have a moment, I'll go back and outline exactly why. End of the day though, there's actually a decent case on him, especially if you look at his play from a scum perspective (which, incidentally, would place a big town flag on Gkrieg, a lesser one on Faust, and a decent one on Robz).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #669 on: July 13, 2018, 01:44:19 pm »

The only thing I dislike about the PPS lynch is that he's sort of infuriating me, and I learned from a game or two ago that me being infuriated at PPS is a sign of him being town.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #670 on: July 13, 2018, 02:17:34 pm »

The only thing I dislike about the PPS lynch is that he's sort of infuriating me, and I learned from a game or two ago that me being infuriated at PPS is a sign of him being town.

This is noted, but does not deter my desire to lynch PPS in any meaningful way.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

pingpongsam

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #671 on: July 13, 2018, 02:23:53 pm »

Is it possible for Robz to be a scum!lover and his partner be town?

Yes, been saying that for awhile.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #672 on: July 13, 2018, 02:40:07 pm »

Is it possible for Robz to be a scum!lover and his partner be town?

Yes, been saying that for awhile.

Possible, sure. But as Robz has indicated they have a QT together, then one must assume that his lover either knows this to be untrue, Robz is town and his lover scum, or has considered the possibility of this truth and still deemed it not a worthwhile consideration.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

faust

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #673 on: July 13, 2018, 04:10:13 pm »

You don't have to have a QT together to know the other lover. 

vote: Robz
Is that a reason to vote for Robz?
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faust

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Re: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Day two!)
« Reply #674 on: July 13, 2018, 04:12:58 pm »

PPS is scummy in every game he plays. I'd go there for lacl of something better, tbh, cos i have never been able to read him.
Would probably prefer idtpg though?
vote: idptg

Isn't IDPTG also scummy in every game he plays?
Isn't that a really stupid rhethorical question? Could you maybe say what you actually think instead of just alluding?
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