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[iguanaiguana]

For the record Iguana (and anybody that had been curious): I checked the opening post for win cons last night when I was following the train of thought out regarding end game. I assumed that the lack of them being posted was intentional, which is why I didn't ask, but instead tried to work my way through all logical implications.

I actually didn't expect Iguana to clarify my question - although the clarification was ultimately inconsequential.

In the end, the only thing that would have worked would have been a hidden win-con for scum, which is what I ended up doing. I didn't want the strong version of the restless spirit, but publicizing scum's win-con would have given town reason to believe that any restless spirit was telling the truth and town.

[iguanaiguana]

Oh man... if you guys had stolen from me N2 instead of changing to Haddock... You would've taken my motorcycle and double killed me + Robz... changes the entire game.

So Lalight's steal ability would have actually trumped your motorcycle and prevented you from using it. But in that case faust still would have had your back with a bodyguard.

[Galzria]

Oh man... if you guys had stolen from me N2 instead of changing to Haddock... You would've taken my motorcycle and double killed me + Robz... changes the entire game.

So Lalight's steal ability would have actually trumped your motorcycle and prevented you from using it. But in that case faust still would have had your back with a bodyguard.

Ah, you're right. I had gotten the first part, but I forgot faust also Bodyguarded me.

[EFHW]

Thanks for the game, iguana!

[Hydrad]

hurrah. we won. I'm glad because I was starting to get kinda worried.

[gkrieg13]

Yay!!!!! So glad we made the right choices.

Shoutout to Glaz/idptg/hydrad for being so so so towny, I hit a point I was never going to participate in a lynch for any of you.

Robz awesome job for being just towny enough not to get lynched but I think you disinsentivized scum from trying to kill galz because they thought we would lynch you. Between this and the survivor game my new outlook on you is “robz, I know he’s scummy but he’s probably helping we will lynch him when we need to”.

We did try to kill galz. Mainly I thought galz had unlimited commuting with his neighbor, so there was no point in trying to kill him.

[gkrieg13]

For the record I’m still salty about this, but I don’t think that Robz becoming town was balanced out by me becoming 1-shot deathproof. Especially when his lover was also a rather unkillable person.

[iguanaiguana]

Galz had an item form 1 shot commute that your faction could steal. A couple 1 shot protectors could have potentually kept him alive one more day. I wouldn't call that unkillable.

[gkrieg13]

Galz had an item form 1 shot commute that your faction could steal. A couple 1 shot protectors could have potentually kept him alive one more day. I wouldn't call that unkillable.

Yes I agree with you. I didn’t know the commuter was one-shot. I’m more just in a bad mood right now about other things.

[faust]

Sorry faust. I had to make a case somewhere. I DID look at all options before going with you, and it sucked because I solidly gut read you town, despite everything. But I felt the case on you was better than the case I could make anywhere else... and it sucks to be wrong but I can't feel bad for trying.

It's okay, maybe you needed to lynch me in order to come around on LaLight. I just wish I would have been able to Bodyguard someone in order to take me out of the lynch pool.

[faust]

PPS's role originally wasn't in the game, and faust's role was originally a straight bodyguard. But when this game had 11 players, scum was winning more than town in my simulations. So I split faust's role into two 1-shot roles, and gave IDPTG/Space an item that could make their roles nightly. Aku had a 1-shot jailkeep, and so he could have fakeclaimed this and hid among the protective people, and even tried to get IDPTG/Space to give him the 1-shot conversion item. 

Just going by this, if you made the game so that random simulations made scum and town win 50% each, then this game was heavily town-favored. (which I think it was) Town is doing better than random. I think town winrate would need to be about 33% for a balanced game, though it depends on how much they can improve through coordination.

[iguanaiguana]

PPS's role originally wasn't in the game, and faust's role was originally a straight bodyguard. But when this game had 11 players, scum was winning more than town in my simulations. So I split faust's role into two 1-shot roles, and gave IDPTG/Space an item that could make their roles nightly. Aku had a 1-shot jailkeep, and so he could have fakeclaimed this and hid among the protective people, and even tried to get IDPTG/Space to give him the 1-shot conversion item. 

Just going by this, if you made the game so that random simulations made scum and town win 50% each, then this game was heavily town-favored. (which I think it was) Town is doing better than random. I think town winrate would need to be about 33% for a balanced game, though it depends on how much they can improve through coordination.

I used a laborious simulation process where I started with a random lynch then manually went through each role and gave them an action that made logical sense given the info they had. So my simulations took an hour to do and had town playing reasonably well with night actions. But okay, sure.

All the same, any of these three things happening differently likely would have caused a mafia win.

1. Robz picking evil, especially if he still wasnt lynched.
2. N2 if scum had stuck with their first action submission of jailing faust, stealing from and killing Galz then both Robz and Galz would have died instead of no one.
3. N3 if scum had roleblocked McMc.

Given that those three events all went against scum and for town and scum still got to MyLo with three mislynches and would have won with four, its hard for me to see how it is heavily townsided. What I see is that town played a little better than scum and won by a little bit too.

[iguanaiguana]

I dont mean to sound arrogant or defensive, I just really don't see it. And I would like to understand so I can make good setups.

[iguanaiguana]

Galzria is MVP for guessing correctly what night he would be shot and helping the correct lynches go through.

[faust]

PPS's role originally wasn't in the game, and faust's role was originally a straight bodyguard. But when this game had 11 players, scum was winning more than town in my simulations. So I split faust's role into two 1-shot roles, and gave IDPTG/Space an item that could make their roles nightly. Aku had a 1-shot jailkeep, and so he could have fakeclaimed this and hid among the protective people, and even tried to get IDPTG/Space to give him the 1-shot conversion item. 

Just going by this, if you made the game so that random simulations made scum and town win 50% each, then this game was heavily town-favored. (which I think it was) Town is doing better than random. I think town winrate would need to be about 33% for a balanced game, though it depends on how much they can improve through coordination.

I used a laborious simulation process where I started with a random lynch then manually went through each role and gave them an action that made logical sense given the info they had. So my simulations took an hour to do and had town playing reasonably well with night actions. But okay, sure.

All the same, any of these three things happening differently likely would have caused a mafia win.

1. Robz picking evil, especially if he still wasnt lynched.
2. N2 if scum had stuck with their first action submission of jailing faust, stealing from and killing Galz then both Robz and Galz would have died instead of no one.
3. N3 if scum had roleblocked McMc.

Given that those three events all went against scum and for town and scum still got to MyLo with three mislynches and would have won with four, its hard for me to see how it is heavily townsided. What I see is that town played a little better than scum and won by a little bit too.

I guess I think that town did not deserve to win this. I don't think town played as a whole better than scum.

[Robz888]

I think the game was town favored, but I don't think I agree that scum played better than town.

[iguanaiguana]

Well next time I do an RMM I will buff scum more. But next time I mod will be something different anyway with an M on it.

[mcmcsalot]

I think actually what happened was the unknown wincon combined with robz choice to be town gave this otherwise even game to town.

Had robz been scum we would have lost the game after lynching Faust because scum simply had to reach 50% of town. Had I known that was scums wincon I absolutely would have pushed us to lynch robz instead of Faust and then we would have opened be final day with glaz/hydrad/Faust vs lalight and it would have been a much closer game with town potentially lynching Faust for the loss.

So not knowing he wincon town player riskier than we would have otherwise and once galz figures it out on the final day it was in the bag that lalight was scum.

So I don’t think the game was too town sided at all. It’s an rmm game and from a role respective town played really really well and scum didn’t play great.

[LaLight]

I should’ve killed Galz/Robz and go to the last day with all 3 townies counting EFHW needing to vote for me, that would’ve given me more chances. But I had no idea Galz really scumread me

[pingpongsam]

Thanks for the game, iguana. I had posted more analysis yesterday but it apparently got lost to the ether.