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teamlyle

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Losing streaks
« on: April 11, 2018, 09:36:39 pm »
+1

It seems like when I play Dominion Online, I'm in one of two modes- either I'm winning 75% of my games, or I'm losing all my games. It's sometimes hard to figure out which mode I'm in, but right now I'm pretty positive that I'm in the latter. Has anything similar happened to you? Do you think people tend to play worse when they're on losing streaks? Just curious.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2018, 10:06:33 pm »
0

Does anyone know what ShiT's random number generator is and is it really random?
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Chase Adolphson

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 11:28:23 pm »
0

It seems like when I play Dominion Online, I'm in one of two modes- either I'm winning 75% of my games, or I'm losing all my games. It's sometimes hard to figure out which mode I'm in, but right now I'm pretty positive that I'm in the latter. Has anything similar happened to you? Do you think people tend to play worse when they're on losing streaks? Just curious.


The exact same thing happens to me. It really is about 75% for me too and then I'm on my losing streak. Right now I'm on the 75%.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2018, 04:19:54 am »
+8

It seems like when I play Dominion Online, I'm in one of two modes- either I'm winning 75% of my games, or I'm losing all my games. It's sometimes hard to figure out which mode I'm in, but right now I'm pretty positive that I'm in the latter. Has anything similar happened to you? Do you think people tend to play worse when they're on losing streaks? Just curious.

Well, there are various psychological biases that affect your decision making negatively when you're on a losing streak, but I don't think that's the biggest reason for why this happens. I think the main reason is that if you're tired, hungry, or have intensively focused on playing Dominion for too long, you're just stupider under those circumstances and that's what causes you to lose games. When your brain is able to deliver the best possible performance, you win games.

Another reason is that truly random things do have streaks, so even if you played every game equally well, this would be expected to some extent.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2018, 05:38:48 am »
+5

Does anyone know what ShiT's random number generator is and is it really random?
It's actually not and the Illuminati control it, but the stuff they put in the chemtrails makes you think otherwise!
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 12:16:50 pm by faust »
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2018, 08:50:07 am »
+4

I think there are a multitude of psychological traps you can fall into when you're on a losing streak, whether it's blaming bad luck for bad play, giving up bad positions too early, shortening your thinking, letting anger replace analysis, losing observation and awareness, miscalculating risks, playing a game as if it's the same as a previous kingdom, and so on. Losing streaks really only show that you are human (or Lord Rattington).
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GendoIkari

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2018, 09:39:57 am »
0

I remember this being discussed before, I think way back in the Iso days. It was (and probably still is) a pretty common phenomenon; due to the various psychological things Awaclus mentioned.

Here's ones such thread: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=13507.0
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 09:42:50 am by GendoIkari »
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2018, 12:39:05 pm »
0

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2018, 12:50:53 pm »
+7

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.

Luck does come and go in streaks (sometimes). That's to be expected when the numbers are truly random. If luck was always evenly distributed, that would be a reason to think that something's up with the RNG.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2018, 12:53:45 pm »
+7

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.

I don't understand. We know that computers are not truly random; so it is using a pseudo-random number generator. But while such a thing could theoretically create detectable patterns in the random number being generated, there's no reason that the detectable pattern in that number would correlate to a detectable pattern in good/bad things happening to you during a game. It's not like a game involving dice where you always want higher numbers, and rolling low means you are unlucky. The generator giving a "10" one time might mean your important card misses the shuffle; while a "10" the next time might mean your cards lined up perfectly. As the game state changes; the random number you hope to get from the generator changes. So there's no way that any pattern in the randomness from the programming point of view would result in an unusual numbers of wins or losses due to luck.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2018, 12:57:50 pm »
+3

Aside from the psychological factors that might make you play worse if you are on a losing streak, there's also the psychological factors involved in detecting losing streaks in the first place. Imagine a game of 100% luck; like flipping a coin and winning if it is heads. people would likely notice that it feels like often when they win once, they also win several times in a row. And that when they lose, it is often several times in a row. This is because all the times where you won 2 out of 4 games were not memorable, while the times where you won 4 out of 4, or 0 out of 4, are. So it would feel like you are getting more streaks than you should.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2018, 01:47:16 pm »
0

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.

I don't understand. We know that computers are not truly random; so it is using a pseudo-random number generator. But while such a thing could theoretically create detectable patterns in the random number being generated, there's no reason that the detectable pattern in that number would correlate to a detectable pattern in good/bad things happening to you during a game. It's not like a game involving dice where you always want higher numbers, and rolling low means you are unlucky. The generator giving a "10" one time might mean your important card misses the shuffle; while a "10" the next time might mean your cards lined up perfectly. As the game state changes; the random number you hope to get from the generator changes. So there's no way that any pattern in the randomness from the programming point of view would result in an unusual numbers of wins or losses due to luck.

Good point. But hypothetically, say it works like the following (it doesn't, but as a thought experiment):

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle. E.g. after opening Chapel/Silver, this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Copper | Copper | Silver | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Estate | Chapel

is closer to 479001600, while this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Silver | Chapel | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate

is closer to 0. Then say ShiT chooses a random number between 0 and 479001600 and that's the shuffle you get. Then I'd hypothesize that that number isn't random. I'd say there are streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 0, and streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 479001600. And not just random streaks, but statistically significant and/or predictable streaks.

At least that's how it feels to me sometimes. There's obviously no way this is how it works. If ShiT knew the difference between good and bad shuffles then I'm sure it would have a better computer opponent than it does. And even then, it still depends on the kingdom, player order, your opponent's shuffle, game theory stuff, etc. At the end of the day I don't doubt it's all just psychology at play. But I'm still curious what ShiT's RNG is.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2018, 02:03:42 pm »
+1

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.

I don't understand. We know that computers are not truly random; so it is using a pseudo-random number generator. But while such a thing could theoretically create detectable patterns in the random number being generated, there's no reason that the detectable pattern in that number would correlate to a detectable pattern in good/bad things happening to you during a game. It's not like a game involving dice where you always want higher numbers, and rolling low means you are unlucky. The generator giving a "10" one time might mean your important card misses the shuffle; while a "10" the next time might mean your cards lined up perfectly. As the game state changes; the random number you hope to get from the generator changes. So there's no way that any pattern in the randomness from the programming point of view would result in an unusual numbers of wins or losses due to luck.

Good point. But hypothetically, say it works like the following (it doesn't, but as a thought experiment):

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle. E.g. after opening Chapel/Silver, this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Copper | Copper | Silver | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Estate | Chapel

is closer to 479001600, while this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Silver | Chapel | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate

is closer to 0. Then say ShiT chooses a random number between 0 and 479001600 and that's the shuffle you get. Then I'd hypothesize that that number isn't random. I'd say there are streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 0, and streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 479001600. And not just random streaks, but statistically significant and/or predictable streaks.

At least that's how it feels to me sometimes. There's obviously no way this is how it works. If ShiT knew the difference between good and bad shuffles then I'm sure it would have a better computer opponent than it does. And even then, it still depends on the kingdom, player order, your opponent's shuffle, game theory stuff, etc. At the end of the day I don't doubt it's all just psychology at play. But I'm still curious what ShiT's RNG is.

You can't indicate the quality of the shuffle because that depends on the cards and the RNG doesn't. If you get the random seed that gives you the golden sombrero, you're going to get it regardless of whether you open Silver/Chapel or Estate/Curse.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2018, 03:01:30 pm »
0

We can debate all day the psychological factors that play in to how you play. But until we know the pseudo random number generator algorithm that dictates shuffling, we cannot say one way or another that shuffles -- what we call "luck" -- are random.

Luck does come and go in streaks ... and I would love to be convinced otherwise
3 years later and I'm still not convinced.

I don't understand. We know that computers are not truly random; so it is using a pseudo-random number generator. But while such a thing could theoretically create detectable patterns in the random number being generated, there's no reason that the detectable pattern in that number would correlate to a detectable pattern in good/bad things happening to you during a game. It's not like a game involving dice where you always want higher numbers, and rolling low means you are unlucky. The generator giving a "10" one time might mean your important card misses the shuffle; while a "10" the next time might mean your cards lined up perfectly. As the game state changes; the random number you hope to get from the generator changes. So there's no way that any pattern in the randomness from the programming point of view would result in an unusual numbers of wins or losses due to luck.

Good point. But hypothetically, say it works like the following (it doesn't, but as a thought experiment):

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle. E.g. after opening Chapel/Silver, this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Copper | Copper | Silver | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Estate | Chapel

is closer to 479001600, while this shuffle:

<--- bottom          top --->
Silver | Chapel | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate | Estate | Copper | Copper | Copper | Copper | Estate

is closer to 0. Then say ShiT chooses a random number between 0 and 479001600 and that's the shuffle you get. Then I'd hypothesize that that number isn't random. I'd say there are streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 0, and streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 479001600. And not just random streaks, but statistically significant and/or predictable streaks.

At least that's how it feels to me sometimes. There's obviously no way this is how it works. If ShiT knew the difference between good and bad shuffles then I'm sure it would have a better computer opponent than it does. And even then, it still depends on the kingdom, player order, your opponent's shuffle, game theory stuff, etc. At the end of the day I don't doubt it's all just psychology at play. But I'm still curious what ShiT's RNG is.

You can't indicate the quality of the shuffle because that depends on the cards and the RNG doesn't. If you get the random seed that gives you the golden sombrero, you're going to get it regardless of whether you open Silver/Chapel or Estate/Curse.

Exactly. Even if the random number generator was bad and gave you the same exact shuffle order every time; the games would play out drastically different depending on the kingdom; which cards you buy; etc.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2018, 05:01:51 pm »
+3

I'd say there are streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 0, and streaks when it gives you a lot of numbers close to 479001600. And not just random streaks, but statistically significant and/or predictable streaks.

At least that's how it feels to me sometimes. There's obviously no way this is how it works. If ShiT knew the difference between good and bad shuffles then I'm sure it would have a better computer opponent than it does. And even then, it still depends on the kingdom, player order, your opponent's shuffle, game theory stuff, etc. At the end of the day I don't doubt it's all just psychology at play. But I'm still curious what ShiT's RNG is.

Here's a quote from my old maths text book from University.

" ... even the simplest coin flipping models can yield to surprising, even shocking results. They are of practical importance because they show that, contrary to the generally accepted view, the laws governing a prolonged series of individual observations will show patterns and averages far removed from those derived for the whole population. In other words, popular psychology tests would lead one to say that in a population of 'normal coins' most coins are 'malajusted'."

In other words, if you look at a series of randomly generated Dominion games the shuffling will quite probably look abnormal in some way. It's not the exception. It's what you should expect.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2018, 07:38:28 pm »
+1

A simple example of how we don't understand randomness inherently - imagine flipping a fair coin 10 times, and write down the results. Now flip a real coin 10 times, and write down the results. If someone does this exercise blindly (i.e. without knowing what I'm about to spoil), I could probably pick the fake result because the real result is likely to have a streak of 3 or more of the same flip, whereas someone trying to make up a believable-looking result will probably only have a maximum streak of 2.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2018, 01:00:30 am »
+1

In addition to what everyone else has said (tilt is real, luck is a thing), I want to add confirmation bias to the list of things that make you see losing streaks whether or not they're real.

You get put off by something, Dominion-related or no (maybe you lost a game, maybe you had a bad day), and it makes you vulnerable. Vulnerable to tilt and stunted analysis sure, but also to internalizing your losses, to them leaving an impression on you, and just as vulnerable to your wins evaporating in your mind.

It's a vicious cycle because distress makes you play worse, and also gives you a worse perception of yourself as a player, making you more distressed. The best part is that winning doesn't help.

Two things do:

One, data. Your emotions don't make it over to Scavenger: http://dominion.lauxnet.com/scavenger/?user=La-Ya

Search your username and click "get last results." You're probably doing better than you remember. In fact, you're winning more than 60% of your games.


Two, a break. Just do something else for the day when the losses start piling up. Play a different game, read a book, drink some water (you're probably not drinking enough water, most people don't). Steal some of Adam's stuff.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2018, 02:21:33 am »
+2

In fact, you're winning more than 60% of your games.

Well, 60% winrate probably counts as a losing streak for someone at teamlyle's level.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2018, 06:38:17 am »
+1

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle.

In most cases you want to assign the same rank to hands that are indistinguishable (save dog-ears or scratches), so you have to divide the number by the permutations within the coppers and estates, repectively. This would lead to 12!/(7!3!) = 15840 different ranks. As the sequence of cards within a hand does not matter, this number can be brought further down but this is where my combinatorics skills fail me.

A simulation (below a few lines of R code) tells me that there are 68 different distributions, a bit less than 15840.

Code: [Select]
cards <- c(rep("Copper", 7), rep("Estate", 3), "Chapel", "Silver")

hands <- 0:11 %/% 5 + 3

niter <- 999

res <- replicate(niter, {
    k <- as.vector(table(sample(cards), hands))
    allcards <- rep(rep(c("Ch", "Cu", "Es", "Ag"), 3), k)
    paste(tapply(allcards, hands, paste, collapse=""), collapse=" - ")})

length(table(res))
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2018, 07:18:58 am »
+2

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle.

In most cases you want to assign the same rank to hands that are indistinguishable (save dog-ears or scratches), so you have to divide the number by the permutations within the coppers and estates, repectively. This would lead to 12!/(7!3!) = 15840 different ranks. As the sequence of cards within a hand does not matter, this number can be brought further down but this is where my combinatorics skills fail me.

In this case, you don't want to assign the same rank to hands that are "indistinguishable" because they aren't indistinguishable; each card is treated as an individual card, not a generic copy of a card of its name. You can try this out by buying a Curse on turn 2, then playing a few turns until you draw that curse, then undo to turn 2 and buy an Estate instead and the Estate will appear exactly where the Curse did.
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2018, 08:20:51 am »
0

ok then, which draw should get higher rank: Copper-Copper-Estate-Copper-Estate or Estate-Copper-Estate-Copper-Copper?
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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2018, 09:01:03 am »
0

ok then, which draw should get higher rank: Copper-Copper-Estate-Copper-Estate or Estate-Copper-Estate-Copper-Copper?

Refer to:

You can't indicate the quality of the shuffle
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GendoIkari

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2018, 12:06:17 pm »
0

Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle.

In most cases you want to assign the same rank to hands that are indistinguishable (save dog-ears or scratches), so you have to divide the number by the permutations within the coppers and estates, repectively. This would lead to 12!/(7!3!) = 15840 different ranks. As the sequence of cards within a hand does not matter, this number can be brought further down but this is where my combinatorics skills fail me.

In this case, you don't want to assign the same rank to hands that are "indistinguishable" because they aren't indistinguishable; each card is treated as an individual card, not a generic copy of a card of its name. You can try this out by buying a Curse on turn 2, then playing a few turns until you draw that curse, then undo to turn 2 and buy an Estate instead and the Estate will appear exactly where the Curse did.

Really? The RNG doesn't choose a new number each time its needed? Instead it repeats the same series of random numbers even after an undo?
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Awaclus

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2018, 12:59:22 pm »
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Say the 'quality' of a shuffle can be enumerated, and ordered. So like, of the 12! = 479001600 ways to arrange your 12 cards after your first shuffle (it's less than that but I don't know maths - the number is arbitrary), each arrangement got a number between 1 and 479001600 indicating the 'quality' of the shuffle.

In most cases you want to assign the same rank to hands that are indistinguishable (save dog-ears or scratches), so you have to divide the number by the permutations within the coppers and estates, repectively. This would lead to 12!/(7!3!) = 15840 different ranks. As the sequence of cards within a hand does not matter, this number can be brought further down but this is where my combinatorics skills fail me.

In this case, you don't want to assign the same rank to hands that are "indistinguishable" because they aren't indistinguishable; each card is treated as an individual card, not a generic copy of a card of its name. You can try this out by buying a Curse on turn 2, then playing a few turns until you draw that curse, then undo to turn 2 and buy an Estate instead and the Estate will appear exactly where the Curse did.

Really? The RNG doesn't choose a new number each time its needed? Instead it repeats the same series of random numbers even after an undo?

That's right.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2018, 01:21:45 pm »
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Really? The RNG doesn't choose a new number each time its needed? Instead it repeats the same series of random numbers even after an undo?

That's right.

Undo would be insufferable if that wasn't the case.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Losing streaks
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2018, 02:10:51 pm »
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Really? The RNG doesn't choose a new number each time its needed? Instead it repeats the same series of random numbers even after an undo?

That's right.

Undo would be insufferable if that wasn't the case.

Yeah I guess that makes sense. It seems like a surprising way to implement RNG; but I can see that if you want to allow unlimited undo, then you basically have to do it that way.
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