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Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 105533 times)

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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #750 on: April 19, 2018, 04:07:12 pm »

I worry that I have more townreads than the number of town remaining. This might mean TWM has to be scum.

EFHW: being mostly helpful and seemingly pro-town, but mostly with setup talk that is just as easy to do as scum as town
Galz: reaction to scrutiny could be genuine town reaction or could be literally exactly what scum Galz was planning all along when he hammered Robz
O: mostly being normal O, but kind of a less helpful version of it so, maybe scummy
Space: always seems town so meh
gkrieg: ?
Datswan: ?
TWM: ???
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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #751 on: April 19, 2018, 04:08:11 pm »

TIL this forum auto-translates a triple-? to a puzzled emoji
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #752 on: April 19, 2018, 04:12:17 pm »

@Gkrieg

Why did you think proposing a massclaim was remotely a reasonable option, and why do you think I should not just try to lynch you for SK + potential Dayvig hunting as scum?

How is proposing a massclaim SK or dayvig hunting? 

We are at MYLO.  The only PR that we are sure we have is a named tracker (slight chance that they are a JK instead).  It is generally within town's interest to do a massclaim at MYLO, seeing as we need to lynch correctly to win.  Unfortunately SK really makes things more difficult.  Even if we lynch scum today, we aren't assured to not lose tomorrow.  At this point we need to lynch mafia and also give the SK enough information to kill mafia as well.

It is definitely a reasonable option, you can't say stuff like "remotely a reasonable option" without saying why it is so outlandish.

Can you even explain the potential benefits of a massclaim?

The potential harms:

1) Reveal our tracker
2) Depending on claiming order, take a pretty bad 50-50 if scum get a convincing first claim of tracker.
3) Reveal any potential remaining relevant PRs
4) Narrow down who the SK potentially is, who is probably a pseudo-Vig for us right now.

The potential benefits:

1) We get one named tracker as a pseudo-IC... if scum don't counterclaim or claim first
2) Scum probably hide as VT claims for the rest of them, which might narrow the pool, except most town and SK will probably also be claiming VT

I'm not crazy in support of Gkrieg here - but not mentioned in the benefits column is that we would know if we are in a 0T/1T or a 2T setup - which is valuable in that we would know if we're in MyLo or not. I don't think the value of knowing is worth the downside of claiming though - either we are or we aren't, that isn't going to change by claiming - and further, the people left that may/may not be PR's and hold the key to that information likely already know if this is MyLo.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #753 on: April 19, 2018, 04:13:47 pm »

TIL this forum auto-translates a triple-? to a puzzled emoji

Yeah. Gotta ninja bold. ???
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #754 on: April 19, 2018, 04:14:44 pm »

Not really relevant, but can't we always back into a win due to SK?
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #755 on: April 19, 2018, 04:18:22 pm »

Anyways I'm going to the rash, foolhardy, insanely stupid thing and Vote: TWM

Calling it now, it's tactical lurking. TWM existed in this game day 1 and day 2. Day 3 we're in MYLO and he drops off the face of the planet?
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #756 on: April 19, 2018, 04:19:49 pm »

"Aren't we not really in MYLO in any circumstance" -- O
"We're in MYLO and he's lurking" -- O, literally one post later.

Meh.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #757 on: April 19, 2018, 04:24:43 pm »

Not really relevant, but can't we always back into a win due to SK?

If we're in a 0T or 1T setup and Mafia know who the SK is they can Roleblock him every night.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #758 on: April 19, 2018, 04:27:31 pm »

Not really relevant, but can't we always back into a win due to SK?

If we're in a 0T or 1T setup and Mafia know who the SK is they can Roleblock him every night.

Right.
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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #759 on: April 19, 2018, 04:31:54 pm »

Anyways I'm going to the rash, foolhardy, insanely stupid thing and Vote: TWM

Calling it now, it's tactical lurking. TWM existed in this game day 1 and day 2. Day 3 we're in MYLO and he drops off the face of the planet?

Right like I've been lurking all game because I have had no clue what's been going on but even I am trying to get more involved here. I really don't see town disappearing like this in this situation.
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #760 on: April 19, 2018, 04:41:23 pm »

I'm conflicted because Galz really deserves to be lynched. But in that game when I was mason with Teproc I randomly pushed the Space lynch because she was flying under the radar heavily and it worked out.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #761 on: April 19, 2018, 04:51:11 pm »

Your face's falling tears, to me they're lovely and they're dear,
though you don't love me and it's clear that I will never see you in my arms.

Vote count 3.3

The_Wine_Merchant (1): O

not voting (7): The_Wine_Merchant, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, Cuzz, EFHW, Gkrieg13

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, April 25 at 8:30am forum time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #762 on: April 19, 2018, 06:03:12 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).


Also completely outside of Galz Town MO.

Such as this. This is exactly my Town MO as can been seen in literally my last two town games. Now, he could argue that I'm scum attempting to mimic my town MO - but that isn't the case he's made. He's said it ISN'T my town MO. False.

I can argue your last two town games are outside of your Town MO. Furthermore backing it up by the fact you are bringing it up.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #763 on: April 19, 2018, 06:56:51 pm »

Sorry friends. Mini-family crisis. I am in communication with iguana about whether or not I should opt out or not. I am not sure what the process is for this, but I am extremely limited communication for at least the next week.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #764 on: April 19, 2018, 07:03:56 pm »

vote: galzria
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #765 on: April 19, 2018, 07:15:06 pm »

I'm conflicted because Galz really deserves to be lynched. But in that game when I was mason with Teproc I randomly pushed the Space lynch because she was flying under the radar heavily and it worked out.

So you're suggesting pushing a lynch on an under-contributing player? The post right before yours is where Cuzz just admitted to having been a lurker all through the game...
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #766 on: April 19, 2018, 07:17:48 pm »

I'm surprised Space isn't doing any rereads.  That is the main reason I don't have a strong townread on them.
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #767 on: April 19, 2018, 07:18:20 pm »

I'm conflicted because Galz really deserves to be lynched. But in that game when I was mason with Teproc I randomly pushed the Space lynch because she was flying under the radar heavily and it worked out.

So you're suggesting pushing a lynch on an under-contributing player? The post right before yours is where Cuzz just admitted to having been a lurker all through the game...

How is this at all relevant when my claim was that TWM is opportunistically lurking today, not the whole game? Cuzz hasn't lurked today.
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #768 on: April 19, 2018, 07:23:48 pm »

i am like 99.99% sure I was already doing this, but
Vote: Galz
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #769 on: April 19, 2018, 07:24:25 pm »

yeah, it just wasn't counted:

said it day 1. said it day 2. saying it now.

Vote:Galz
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #770 on: April 19, 2018, 07:43:44 pm »

Gkrieg -- Early on I thought he was townie mostly for the fact he's called me town. I think as scum he'd be much more likely to revert to his meta of spearheading my mislynches. Says mcmc always thinks he's scum, in response to Robz's comment about mcmc reading gkrieg. Says O and Robz were the most likely to be scum of people pushing e.. now we know Robz was town after all. Townreads mcmc and IDP. Calls Galz, TWM and Swan scummy. Votes faust, but says he'd rather lynch a lurker. Votes Swan, then IDP after a reads change. Says he hasn't had scum vibes on EFHW and reads her well. Wishes me happy birthday twice! :-) Wow, that feels like ages ago already. Gkrieg highlights that he shines more in later days than in early days. #404 is "I feel like you are trying to pre-frame me for when mcmc dies tonight", and mcmc did die! (Though it was Robz he was talking to there, and Robz has now flipped town). Has quite a long argument back and forht with faust, but then I was feeling quite wary of faust too I think.

Comes into D2 directly with comments on the NK and a vote on O for being under the radar. Also being eerie/weary of EFHW :-P He's got 71 game posts to date, but these start-of-day ones are only a few words long each. Was sick. Hope you're feeling better now, gkrieg! :-) Votes for Robz, but says he still thinks O is scum. Doesn't reappear till after the hammer. Given that I know e and I are town, in 2nd and 3rd places on that wagon respectively, gkreig in 4th place looks like the vote could be a little opportunistic in retrospect.

Opens D3 much the same as D2, with comments on what the flip means for the game setup. I think I already posted my thought about how for someone who was earlier posting about how he's higher-value as a player later in the game, he seems to have come into the day all prepared with thoughts about mylo etc. Moves on to suggest a massclaim, which is quickly scumread. Makes the suggestion that we might have a JK as part of a response to O, which is all wrong. We actually don't even need my full game distribution to prove it, just look at the S roll list in the setup. Has a bit of an ongoing tangle with Galz, and has voted him just now. So where did the earlier O scumread go in D3? Gkrieg has been arguing with O, but hasn't said anything more about his scumread on him in D3. Overall he was a strongish townread of mine earlier in the game, but that's really slipping now.

PPE 4: including gkrieg complaining about me not doing reads while I was actually in the middle of re-reading him!
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #771 on: April 19, 2018, 09:21:24 pm »

There's no room in your heart
for even this finely-sharpened dart.
Although I had started to think
there might be hope, it isn't so.

Vote count 3.4

The_Wine_Merchant (1): O
Galzria (2): gkrieg13, DatSwan

not voting (5): The_Wine_Merchant, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, Cuzz, EFHW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, April 25 at 8:30am forum time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #772 on: April 19, 2018, 11:41:03 pm »

Here is where I am at from Vote Count Re Read. Strike Through Players = Confirmed Town.


D1 Final Vote Count

Robz888 (1): IDontPlayThisGame
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Galzria
Galzria (1): O
SpaceAnemone (1): faust
IDontPlayThisGame (7): gkrieg13, SpaceAnemone, Robz888, 2.71828, The_Wine_Merchant, EFHW, DatSwan

not voting (1): Cuzz


Okie Dokie - So the way my brain works here is deal with likelihood. It takes 7 to lynch, there were 3 Town players on a Town player, so that is 4 remaining unknowns. For me this creates a lynch pool of at "at least 1, but not more than 2 skum exist within [GK, Space, TWM, EFHW]".



Day 2 Final Vote Count
O (1): Robz888
DatSwan (1): The_Wine_Merchant
Galzria (1): DatSwan
Robz888 (6): O, 2.71828..., SpaceAnemone, gkrieg13, EFHW, Galzria

not voting (1): Cuzz

Okie Dokie - Same concept first. With 10 alive it took 6 to lynch. Of those 6 on Town!Robz, we have 1 Town player and 5 Unknowns. From the Wagon, I am going to assume there is at least one Skum within [O, Space, GK, EFHW, Galz].
 Off the wagon we have Cuzz, TWM, Robz, Swan. Because I know I am town and we have had the Robz flip, that means that EITHER all the skum was on the wagon, or one of Cuzz/TWM (or both I suppose) are likely skum.


So far the Summary:
Day 1 Wagon Pool = [GK, Space, EFHW, TWM]
Day 1 No Wagon Pool = [Cuzz, O, Galz]
Day 2 Wagon Pool = [GK, Space, O, EFHW, Galz]
Day 2 No Wagon Pool = [Cuzz, TWM]

Just whatever, these are assumptions keep in mind, but what I draw from this is:
1) There is at least one mafia in     [Cuzz, TWM]
2) There is at least one mafia in     [GK, Space, EFHW]
3) There is at least one mafia in     [Galz, TWM]
Note - read through it and you will see why O is not included. I am not saying he is for sure not skum, just this is the most reduced possible pool I can come to.

The bummer here is that when you run through it the pools pretty much become [Cuzz, TWM] or [GK, Space, EFHW], and regardless of the choice (even assuming we guess right and find skum), the overall information revealed is about the same. This leads to to my initial point, which is... I just want to lynch Galz because he is going to flip skum.
However, if we absolutely must lynch outside of it, we should lynch within [GK, Space, EFHW].

My order of preference would be Space, EFHW, GK at this point. So, realistically my lynch pool is [Galz/Space].
My overall pool would be [Galz, Space/GK/EFHW, TWM/Cuzz]
My reduced pool would be [Galz, TWM, Space/GK/EFHW]
My "super-whammy-want it to be written down somewhere" pool would be [Galz, TWM, Space].

We should lynch Galz.
If we are not going to lynch Galz, we should lynch Space.
If we are not going to lynch Galz or Space, we should lynch TWM. 
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #773 on: April 20, 2018, 01:07:01 am »

I still heavily scumread O.
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #774 on: April 20, 2018, 03:37:16 am »

I still heavily scumread O.

Yeah that's cool and all - like I said def not off the radar - but outside O who do you like?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
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