Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 51  All

Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 117589 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #700 on: April 18, 2018, 01:40:09 pm »

oh wow Gkrieg and EHFW have had some terribley wrong analysis.

Quote
1. Robz Vanilla Town T
2. IDontPlayThisGame Vanilla Town T

There isn't a 1:1 correspondence of rolls: roles. EG: GG = 1 Dayvig. So I'm pretty positive that you can't confirm a T role for each VT that flips

Quote
E being targeted by both kills is the only way that mafia don’t know SK. If they shot the SK it doesn’t block their kill, but it does block mafia’s kill (in the sense that SK is bulletproof

Besides the bulletproofer I already mentioned, mafia seem to be pretttyyy likely to have a one shot rolestopper?

So a possible outcome is that mafia rolestopped the SK victim

The analysis of mine is saying that there are at least 4 letters accounted for, which means that at most there are 2 Ts.  I get that roles aren't 1:1, but if you actually read the setup, you will see that for the town PRs that have flipped, there is no way to get those PRs with fewer than 4 letters.  That means that mafia has one of:

TT: Tracker OR Townrole Cop, 1-shot Roleblocker, 1-shot Rolestopper, one randomly chosen mafia is hidden Commuter
T: Tracker OR Townrole Cop, Roleblocker and Rolestopper with 5 communal shots, hidden Commuter
0T: Tracker OR Townrole Cop, Roleblocker and Rolestopper with 5 communal shots, hidden Commuter, Daytalk for Day 3 only
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #701 on: April 18, 2018, 01:41:36 pm »

I think it is probably time for a massclaim.  We have a chance to make the lynch pool smaller here.  I do agree with Cuzz.

I think we should not massclaim and actually lynch Gkrieg instead.

Really?  The fact that I propose a massclaim is reason enough to lynch me? 
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #702 on: April 18, 2018, 01:44:31 pm »

It's also possible that SK knows who one member of the mafia is, because mafia has a hidden commuter on one of them.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #703 on: April 18, 2018, 01:44:48 pm »

Agree with O about mass claim. Town with helpful information can decide when the nest time is to speak up.

What is another way someone could flip vt?

Am I misreading the setup? There are only 6 rolls of the numbers for the 10 town (or sk) players. You could have zero "t" rolls and have GGGGOO to get:

 Tracker, Named Tracker, Drunk, Dayvig, Dayvig and 5 VTs.


PPE: Ah, the claim is that there are at most two T rolls, not at least. That's much more believable although I haven't gone through that yet.


Logged

Galzria

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 956
  • Since 2012
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #704 on: April 18, 2018, 02:47:21 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

IF YOU LYNCH ME HERE:

D3:
4 Town
3 Mafia
1 SK

N3:
3 Town
3 Mafia
1 SK

*Mafia likely know who the SK is at this point. If we are in a 1T or 0T game, they can likely block the SK kill N3, and shoot town.
D4:
2 Town
3 Mafia
1SK

Mafia will win out by default here. It's a forced no-lynch, Mafia can (likely) block SK again N4, and then lynch him D5.

If we are in a 2T game, then there are a few ways N3 could break down:

"The best case" - N3: Mafia shoots the SK, SK shoots Mafia (and doesn't hit the hidden commuter):
D4:
3 Town
2 Mafia
1 SK

This at least allows town the option to lynch Mafia still (SK lynch = town loss). Mafia could then kill the SK at night, and if the SK kills the final Mafia then town wins. If SK kills town here then we go to the final day in traditional LyLo - 2 Town 1 Mafia.


"The second best case": Mafia shoots town, SK shoots Mafia (and doesn't hit the hidden commuter)
D4:
2 Town
2 Mafia
1 SK

Here town could still lynch Mafia with the help of the SK.
N4:
2 Town
1 Mafia
1 SK

Rock-Paper-Scissors? If the Mafioso is the Hidden Commuter that favors Mafia. If the SK is still Bullet Proof that favors SK. Either way doesn't look SUUUUUPER great for town, but it's town's best chance.

Almost all other options for a 2T game result in a town loss.

----------

My recommendation here is that if you are all dead set on lynching me, you should have a DayVig (if there is one) shoot me first. This resets the vote count and continues the day without putting us to night and allowing for the SK/Mafia to shoot. This will then continue the day with the following setup:

D3:
3 Town (DayVig IC, Named Tracker can claim)
3 Mafia
1 SK

While this is strictly worse than what we have now - at least you won't have a full cycle of night kills following a town lynch. If you think I'm the SK here then shooting me will burn my bullet-proof and leave us right where we started except I'm now exposed to Mafia NK. And if nothing else, you end up with 2 of the 3 town remaining as IC's, which is going to give you the best chances going forward (as SK still needs to shoot Mafia each night, at most 1 town can die to Mafia kills nightly).

----------

That said, if there IS a DayVig, what would be FAR better than shooting me here is shooting Mafia. I think regardless (and those with better game theory than I, feel free to input thoughts here): Should we have the votes for a lynch, we should give any potential DayVig the opportunity to shoot that person first, rather than risking the night cycle of kills.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #705 on: April 18, 2018, 03:10:24 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

snipped

I'm pretty sure scum starting the day with 7 people alive and 3 of them scum is pretty good for them.  I also think that you would have an identical opening post today if you were scum here.
Logged

Galzria

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 956
  • Since 2012
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #706 on: April 18, 2018, 03:13:58 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

snipped

I'm pretty sure scum starting the day with 7 people alive and 3 of them scum is pretty good for them.  I also think that you would have an identical opening post today if you were scum here.

Yes, it is good for them. I acknowledged as much. Do you have a point? It's also FAR better for them to have 8 alive, with 3 scum, and lynch town. Hence all that goodness of the "snip" you put in there.

Unwritten insinuation in bold: You know that I'm not.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #707 on: April 18, 2018, 03:37:27 pm »

Right, this should be solving time! I'm definitely going to weigh in on the solving chat as soon as I'm sure my probabilities thing is right.

I started fixing it overnight, but got lazy/busy and figured it was optimal to wait till I was sure I'm still alive... the fact that both gkrieg and Galz seem to have put a load of time into thinking this out when they're both people who as town should be more worried about being the NK than I am is not an encouraging sign.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #708 on: April 18, 2018, 03:41:37 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

snipped

I'm pretty sure scum starting the day with 7 people alive and 3 of them scum is pretty good for them.  I also think that you would have an identical opening post today if you were scum here.

Yes, it is good for them. I acknowledged as much. Do you have a point? It's also FAR better for them to have 8 alive, with 3 scum, and lynch town. Hence all that goodness of the "snip" you put in there.

Unwritten insinuation in bold: You know that I'm not.

In your post you were assuming you were town, which was most of your argument.  Saying that it was better to lynch scum than it is to lynch you because you are town.  I was only saying that I would expect you to make that exact post as scum.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #709 on: April 18, 2018, 03:43:23 pm »

Right, this should be solving time! I'm definitely going to weigh in on the solving chat as soon as I'm sure my probabilities thing is right.

I started fixing it overnight, but got lazy/busy and figured it was optimal to wait till I was sure I'm still alive... the fact that both gkrieg and Galz seem to have put a load of time into thinking this out when they're both people who as town should be more worried about being the NK than I am is not an encouraging sign.

I obviously haven't put that much time into thinking anything out.  I saw that there was only one night kill and that a PR died and could very quickly look at the setup and conclude that we have 4 letters accounted for and that it is likely (obviously there are other possibilities) that mafia know who SK is or SK knows who mafia is.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #710 on: April 18, 2018, 03:46:41 pm »

@Gkrieg

Why did you think proposing a massclaim was remotely a reasonable option, and why do you think I should not just try to lynch you for SK + potential Dayvig hunting as scum?
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #711 on: April 18, 2018, 03:48:30 pm »

Ugh Gkrieg is so freaking scummy but if I distract from a Galz lynch and he's scum I'm either immediately losing the game or getting myself lynched later and losing the game.
Logged

Galzria

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 956
  • Since 2012
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #712 on: April 18, 2018, 03:52:40 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

snipped

I'm pretty sure scum starting the day with 7 people alive and 3 of them scum is pretty good for them.  I also think that you would have an identical opening post today if you were scum here.

Yes, it is good for them. I acknowledged as much. Do you have a point? It's also FAR better for them to have 8 alive, with 3 scum, and lynch town. Hence all that goodness of the "snip" you put in there.

Unwritten insinuation in bold: You know that I'm not.

In your post you were assuming you were town, which was most of your argument.  Saying that it was better to lynch scum than it is to lynch you because you are town.  I was only saying that I would expect you to make that exact post as scum.

I don't think so - but that's not something I can really prove. More though, it misses the point of my post:

Obviously it's "better to lynch scum than it is to lynch me because I'm town" - that isn't the take away you (or anybody) should be having. That's a pointless statement. Lynching town here in a 0T or 1T game means game over, period. Lynching town here in a 2T game still leaves outs, but not great ones. The take away is that if there's a Vig, they should shoot me over lynching "me" (and "me" here is actually generic - They should shoot any player over a lynch here, as it's effectively a lynch with no night cycle). I was primarily focused on myself as an example because (A) I know that I'm town, and (B):

I feel like we should not overthink this and just lynch Galz. We’re kinda screwed anyway.
I feel like we should not overthink this and just lynch Galz. We’re kinda screwed anyway.

Ok so Cuzz is town because scum would never plunge directly in like this.

Also, I do mostly agree.
I think it is probably time for a massclaim.  We have a chance to make the lynch pool smaller here.  I do agree with Cuzz.

Add in the fact that Swan is probably also going to continue gunning for my lynch (He's been doing so since D1) and we haven't heard from EFHW, Space, or TWM on this and, well...
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #713 on: April 18, 2018, 04:09:17 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.
Logged

Galzria

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 956
  • Since 2012
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #714 on: April 18, 2018, 04:20:03 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #715 on: April 18, 2018, 04:35:14 pm »

@Gkrieg

Why did you think proposing a massclaim was remotely a reasonable option, and why do you think I should not just try to lynch you for SK + potential Dayvig hunting as scum?

How is proposing a massclaim SK or dayvig hunting? 

We are at MYLO.  The only PR that we are sure we have is a named tracker (slight chance that they are a JK instead).  It is generally within town's interest to do a massclaim at MYLO, seeing as we need to lynch correctly to win.  Unfortunately SK really makes things more difficult.  Even if we lynch scum today, we aren't assured to not lose tomorrow.  At this point we need to lynch mafia and also give the SK enough information to kill mafia as well.

It is definitely a reasonable option, you can't say stuff like "remotely a reasonable option" without saying why it is so outlandish.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #716 on: April 18, 2018, 04:36:39 pm »

Ugh Gkrieg is so freaking scummy but if I distract from a Galz lynch and he's scum I'm either immediately losing the game or getting myself lynched later and losing the game.

What does this even mean.  How am I scummy, and if I were scum, how does lynching me instead of Galzria actually change anything?  And what do you mean by getting yourself lynched later?
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #717 on: April 18, 2018, 04:40:33 pm »

Look, I know the hammer (in light of Robz' flip) looks scummy as hell - but why the *&%$ would scum!Galz have needed or wanted to do that there? Like, what's the winning strategy for him there? Yeah, it sucks that Robz flipped town - but I wasn't the only one who believed that there was a decent chance that he wouldn't.

snipped

I'm pretty sure scum starting the day with 7 people alive and 3 of them scum is pretty good for them.  I also think that you would have an identical opening post today if you were scum here.

Yes, it is good for them. I acknowledged as much. Do you have a point? It's also FAR better for them to have 8 alive, with 3 scum, and lynch town. Hence all that goodness of the "snip" you put in there.

Unwritten insinuation in bold: You know that I'm not.

In your post you were assuming you were town, which was most of your argument.  Saying that it was better to lynch scum than it is to lynch you because you are town.  I was only saying that I would expect you to make that exact post as scum.

I don't think so - but that's not something I can really prove. More though, it misses the point of my post:

Obviously it's "better to lynch scum than it is to lynch me because I'm town" - that isn't the take away you (or anybody) should be having. That's a pointless statement. Lynching town here in a 0T or 1T game means game over, period. Lynching town here in a 2T game still leaves outs, but not great ones. The take away is that if there's a Vig, they should shoot me over lynching "me" (and "me" here is actually generic - They should shoot any player over a lynch here, as it's effectively a lynch with no night cycle). I was primarily focused on myself as an example because (A) I know that I'm town, and (B):

I feel like we should not overthink this and just lynch Galz. We’re kinda screwed anyway.
I feel like we should not overthink this and just lynch Galz. We’re kinda screwed anyway.

Ok so Cuzz is town because scum would never plunge directly in like this.

Also, I do mostly agree.
I think it is probably time for a massclaim.  We have a chance to make the lynch pool smaller here.  I do agree with Cuzz.

Add in the fact that Swan is probably also going to continue gunning for my lynch (He's been doing so since D1) and we haven't heard from EFHW, Space, or TWM on this and, well...

Yes I got that takeaway.  I just remember watching you in the large Robz game (I think 100) having almost the exact same post coming into a day where town was down when you were scum.  Your post reminded me a lot of that game.

There probably isn't a dayvig anyway, so all this speculation about one is very interesting.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #718 on: April 18, 2018, 04:41:48 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #719 on: April 18, 2018, 05:03:18 pm »

@Gkrieg

Why did you think proposing a massclaim was remotely a reasonable option, and why do you think I should not just try to lynch you for SK + potential Dayvig hunting as scum?

How is proposing a massclaim SK or dayvig hunting? 

We are at MYLO.  The only PR that we are sure we have is a named tracker (slight chance that they are a JK instead).  It is generally within town's interest to do a massclaim at MYLO, seeing as we need to lynch correctly to win.  Unfortunately SK really makes things more difficult.  Even if we lynch scum today, we aren't assured to not lose tomorrow.  At this point we need to lynch mafia and also give the SK enough information to kill mafia as well.

It is definitely a reasonable option, you can't say stuff like "remotely a reasonable option" without saying why it is so outlandish.

Can you even explain the potential benefits of a massclaim?

The potential harms:

1) Reveal our tracker
2) Depending on claiming order, take a pretty bad 50-50 if scum get a convincing first claim of tracker.
3) Reveal any potential remaining relevant PRs
4) Narrow down who the SK potentially is, who is probably a pseudo-Vig for us right now.

The potential benefits:

1) We get one named tracker as a pseudo-IC... if scum don't counterclaim or claim first
2) Scum probably hide as VT claims for the rest of them, which might narrow the pool, except most town and SK will probably also be claiming VT
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #720 on: April 18, 2018, 05:51:14 pm »

I've got a set of role distribution probabilities I'm moderately happy with now. It's somewhat weird, because the shape of the distribution is not quite not what I expected. I've more or less satisfied myself that it's correct, though, and that the game setup is just a little weird.

I think there are 14 possible combinations of roles left for the game, with each one arising from between 7 and 33 different starting rolls/W-substitutions. From these combinations, I derive the following:

Probability of 4 town roles is 16%.
Probability of 5 town roles is 57%.
Probability of 6 town roles is 27%.

These numbers don't include our named tracker, which means we have an 84% chance of at least two PRs.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Cuzz

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 612
  • Shuffle iT Username: Cuzz
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #721 on: April 18, 2018, 06:09:29 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).

Yeah this is basically my thought. Sometimes being super scummy and anti-town should get you lynched.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #722 on: April 18, 2018, 06:15:27 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).

Yeah this is basically my thought. Sometimes being super scummy and anti-town should get you lynched.

wait we just tried this tho
Logged

Cuzz

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 612
  • Shuffle iT Username: Cuzz
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #723 on: April 18, 2018, 06:22:46 pm »

From the non-Galz perspective scum would bus you anyways.

I agree.

I'm perfect lynch-bait because yes, if I were scum, you're right that they would.


I'm mean galzria you opened the day saying I am too scummy to be scum.  What would you expect?  You also kind of quickhammered Robz with not great reasoning at a time when not a lot of people were around (weekends aren't the best for anyone).

Yeah this is basically my thought. Sometimes being super scummy and anti-town should get you lynched.

wait we just tried this tho

eh
Logged

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« Reply #724 on: April 18, 2018, 06:29:11 pm »

said it day 1. said it day 2. saying it now.

Vote:Galz
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 51  All
 

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 21 queries.