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Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 109746 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #600 on: April 13, 2018, 11:08:21 am »

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.

This is where I ended up. People who seemed to have the votes to lynch at end of day were maybe robz, EFHW, IDP. I don't think anyone else was seriously close. If you want to throw me on that list, fine. I didn't feel like I was about to get lynched at all.

From there, IDP was the one I wanted to lynch the most, probably robz least, and (to answer DatSwan's question towards the end of day) I totally would have switched to EFHW to get a lynch.

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW)....
I disagree here. DatSwan voted me, right after Robz moved off me to IDP. gkrieg then said that he wanted to lynch IDP more than me. If he had voted me, Robz would have come back and there would have been an EFHW lynch. I think TWM's vote for IDP was because the votes weren't there for me anymore.

@Robz Why did you say you preferred IDP lynch yet you had been voting me before?
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Robz888

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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #602 on: April 13, 2018, 01:31:46 pm »

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.

This is where I ended up. People who seemed to have the votes to lynch at end of day were maybe robz, EFHW, IDP. I don't think anyone else was seriously close. If you want to throw me on that list, fine. I didn't feel like I was about to get lynched at all.

From there, IDP was the one I wanted to lynch the most, probably robz least, and (to answer DatSwan's question towards the end of day) I totally would have switched to EFHW to get a lynch.

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW)....
I disagree here. DatSwan voted me, right after Robz moved off me to IDP. gkrieg then said that he wanted to lynch IDP more than me. If he had voted me, Robz would have come back and there would have been an EFHW lynch. I think TWM's vote for IDP was because the votes weren't there for me anymore.

@Robz Why did you say you preferred IDP lynch yet you had been voting me before?

You did some townie things that caused me to re-evaluate. I think some error you corrected? I can't recall. I did state it publicly.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #603 on: April 13, 2018, 02:22:24 pm »

Sorry all, I've been sick yesterday and today so I'm mainly sleeping and bingewatching netflix.  Will get to this once I'm done being sick.
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Cuzz

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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #605 on: April 13, 2018, 05:26:06 pm »

2) i announced i would hammer with 2 mins left. I did this bc my top skum read was he only other dude online to do something. My concern was he claims he will hammer, then last minute “realizes whatever reason” and we go no lynch.
Huh?
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #606 on: April 13, 2018, 05:30:34 pm »

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW).

Just wanted to bring this out for more consideration. There are a few scenarios here:
1) TWM and EFHW are scum partners and his move helped ensure partner doesn't get lynched
2) TWM is scum (EFHW town) and didn't really care which one of the two got lynched. I don't think that TWM casts a bold deciding vote like that as scum though unless he is saving his partner EFHW. It makes him the focal point of the mislynch
3) TWM is town (EFHW alignment neutral) and he decided to just do it. Get the lynch done.
Or there could be a #4.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #607 on: April 13, 2018, 05:43:51 pm »

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW).

Just wanted to bring this out for more consideration. There are a few scenarios here:
1) TWM and EFHW are scum partners and his move helped ensure partner doesn't get lynched
2) TWM is scum (EFHW town) and didn't really care which one of the two got lynched. I don't think that TWM casts a bold deciding vote like that as scum though unless he is saving his partner EFHW. It makes him the focal point of the mislynch
3) TWM is town (EFHW alignment neutral) and he decided to just do it. Get the lynch done.
Or there could be a #4.

Oh yeah, SK
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2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #608 on: April 13, 2018, 05:45:33 pm »

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.

This is where I ended up. People who seemed to have the votes to lynch at end of day were maybe robz, EFHW, IDP. I don't think anyone else was seriously close. If you want to throw me on that list, fine. I didn't feel like I was about to get lynched at all.

From there, IDP was the one I wanted to lynch the most, probably robz least, and (to answer DatSwan's question towards the end of day) I totally would have switched to EFHW to get a lynch.

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW)....
I disagree here. DatSwan voted me, right after Robz moved off me to IDP. gkrieg then said that he wanted to lynch IDP more than me. If he had voted me, Robz would have come back and there would have been an EFHW lynch. I think TWM's vote for IDP was because the votes weren't there for me anymore.

@Robz Why did you say you preferred IDP lynch yet you had been voting me before?

I reread and yeah, I think you are right about that. I hadn't realized that both Galzria and Datswan were both on EFHW at the 4/4 stage.
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Galzria

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #609 on: April 13, 2018, 06:18:49 pm »

Sorry, caught up with work and fixing an AC unit. I'll be on tonight, tomorrow night and lots on Monday.
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #610 on: April 13, 2018, 07:24:50 pm »

so I reread O and he seems like normal O so we'll call that a null read and move on to someone else
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #611 on: April 13, 2018, 07:32:10 pm »

I've been doing re-reads too, but I'm too tired to go back and make myself less verbose right now, so I'll post in the morning. My use of the code box wasn't popular as an alternative to a wall of text, was it? (Even if made more succinct and relevant, it's still a but chunky).

In other news, there's a definite bug in the numbers i posted for likelihoods of various roles, which I'm embarrassed about. I knew I didn't have enough awkeness in me tonight to finish that and do some re-reading, so I propritised the letter.
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #612 on: April 13, 2018, 07:56:12 pm »

Kay... a few things:

1) there was this post:
vote: EFHW. Prefer to IDPTG.

2) Then there was this post:
wiat didnt you say you preferred IDP to EFHW?

No.

-- Now Town changes the mind all the time - but he said "no". Just untrue. He absolutely said that he would "Prefer to IDPTG".--

3) Then there is this:
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

- So like, yeah time had passed but nothing had really surfaced on EFHW. Why is it "we need to do IDP" and then all of a sudden "I can't believe we are doing IDP instead of EFHW?". Then he ends up on EFHW?

But like then there is this...
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

There's no case on IDPTG. And he's literally done the EXACT same thing he did in his last town game - RVS vote that stayed the entire time because it developed into a scum read.

So he has no case against him because he is acting EXACTLY THE SAME... but then (as this is the first of the quotes mentioned above) the rest followed.

Galz is the nutz at telling when Faust is off right? Faust was off... but not skum, just Town PR. Which skum would know is the only "off" option.
This is way to many changes on a potential TvT wagon situation than makes sense. Hell, it doesn't make sense in any scenario.

This seems like a lot over a small amount of interaction.

Vote: Galz

This is truly an impressive amount of analysis given that it’s based on your misreading “Prefer to idp” which is correctly interpreted as “I’m voting EFHW since I prefer her Lynch to idp’s”

I read it as “prefer to do IDP” as opposed to “preferred over IDP”.
Yes English is my primary language. This was just a stupid error. Sorry for time wasted.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #613 on: April 14, 2018, 12:38:29 am »

If datswan isn’t a native speaker I owe him an apology as the tongue in cheek tone I used would be pretty uncalled for.
nah we good man. I goofed on that one.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #614 on: April 14, 2018, 12:58:35 am »

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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

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Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #615 on: April 14, 2018, 12:59:06 am »

By the way. Hamilton.

AMAZE!
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #616 on: April 14, 2018, 01:01:53 am »

Another question for datswan: can you please explain your vote on e from a little while ago?

Sure - I mean tbf it was a light vote, but the idea was...

1) 2.7 mentioned that he thought either Galz or I was Skum.

2) 2.7 posted a reads list way back on D1. He bumps it beginning of the day of day today. There are other things I will get to about it later, but in relevance to this question - he TRs me.

3) Then I turn skummy all of a sudden when he votes me. He follows this up with logic that I just utterly disagree with. And this is where it could just be bias... but as skum I try to get votes in on one of my partners ALL THE TIME. Great play for people that go back and read D1 later looking for voting tendencies.

Mainly it has to do with the fact that I do think Galz is skum. I planned to jump right back on Galz at the beginning of the day, but after the vote on me and the comment about one of us being skum I assumed it would give Skum too much of an avenue to wagon me if I went for Galz right there. Didn't like losing out on information I wanted to gather so I decided to bat a bush and see what happens. My #2 skum read jumped on the train and then I switched off to Galz.

That was the logic at the time. Should be noted that there has been time since the vote and now - and 2.7 has dropped far down on my skum radar list so to speak. More likely Town just trying to put something together.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #617 on: April 14, 2018, 01:06:25 am »

Another question for datswan: can you please explain your vote on e from a little while ago?

Sure - I mean tbf it was a light vote, but the idea was...
lalight isn't in the game!
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #618 on: April 14, 2018, 01:15:23 am »

My #2 skum read jumped on the train and then I switched off to Galz.
Whose that? I don't see anyone else voting for 2.7.
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #619 on: April 14, 2018, 01:25:31 am »

My #2 skum read jumped on the train and then I switched off to Galz.
Whose that? I don't see anyone else voting for 2.7.

Wow I have to stop posting from my phone. Thought Robz voted for E, not O.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #620 on: April 14, 2018, 01:33:08 am »

My #2 skum read jumped on the train and then I switched off to Galz.
Whose that? I don't see anyone else voting for 2.7.

Wow I have to stop posting from my phone. Thought Robz voted for E, not O.
Wassup Bitches!
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #621 on: April 14, 2018, 01:33:47 am »

Sorry. I have been drinking. Again. And again.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #622 on: April 14, 2018, 01:39:19 am »

The only thing that would make Hamilton better is if Bojack Horseman was in it.
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #623 on: April 14, 2018, 09:10:15 am »

Two more re-reads! Howcome mcmc had to die N1, and not someone else from the set of people I hadn't gone through in detail yet? :-( I still have EFHW, O and gkreig to do.

Galzria: Did the questions-in-thread thing early on that people thought sounded forced. Not sure whether or not I'd have asked stuff in-thread, but then I came in to the game knowing I'd written code to analyse this setup before. Jokes with e about being the SKand soemhow doesn't come away sounding. Calls Robz scummy for being meta-aware, but never votes. Scumreads TWM for his dama thing; pushes that case for quite a while. Eventually votes mcmc for defending TWM, saying he was pushing TWM to see how people reacted. Then after TWM votes EFHW, Galz immediately questions it.. so how much is scum-hunting and how much is actual TWM suspicion? Then has a big outage and a prod. I have mixed views about the thing where scum are more likely to want consolidation of wagons. I can kind of see where he's coming from, but scum are the ones who get to kill at night, so town's the side at the big disadvantage if we can't lynch people. #436: has Galz written a vote tracker, or spent a lot of time on this? Comes out strongly against lynching Robz or IDP, then unvotes. Feels out traction for O, then goes for e in retaliation for a post where e criticized him. Tries to encourage several of us to join the e wagon. I was actively re-reading at that point, but found e quite townie. Seems to be convinced that e could still be on the table a couple of hours before the deadline. Never gives a good explanation for why EFHW wasn't a good backup option for a lynch. Only one post so far in D2. Seems to be one of the more confident people here (particularly the thing about not believing his vote was malformed), but I'm not sure how alignment-indicative that sort of behaviour is for Galz.

Cuzz: Only 12 game posts! Nothing very useful in the four for D1 (mild townread on Robz). Comes into D2 admitting that he's not reading the full game, but that he's re-reading O because it might be scum!O. Then immediately calls Datswan scummy too. Agrees with O on something, asks Datswan a bunch of questions. Makes a minimal empty comment to Robz. Comes back and says that O is the normal O. He's only engaged/talked about Robz, O and Datswan in D2, and it's definitely not because others aren't posting. Is O too experienced to be super-cautious about mentioning scumbuddies in-thread or anything like that? (I'm not scum: he did answer a thing I'd said in D1!).
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #624 on: April 14, 2018, 09:22:45 am »

Is O too experienced to be super-cautious about mentioning scumbuddies in-thread or anything like that? (I'm not scum: he did answer a thing I'd said in D1!).

Not entirely sure what this is asking... but to answer I usually try to get super angry at my scumbuddies and get them lynched at least once in the early days of a game, more fun that way. On a more serious note, I tend to ignore who my scumbuddies are while i'm posting early days so I think I'm pretty good about not avoiding them.

But if there's someone I've ignored this game let me know and I'll be happy to start trying to lynch them.
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