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Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 140844 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #150 on: April 04, 2018, 04:43:13 pm »

mcmc, you're pretty critical of Galzria. Why aren't you voting for him?

vote: efhw Based on the response to my earlier question and this post.

Because I don't think I am that critical of Galz...is this how people started lurking all the time and never making reads. Just because I disagreed with galz very early read of a small thing twm did and then did not like his attack of me for being what he calls defensive does NOT a scumread make. I see why galz thought what he did about TWM, it is a reasonable thought, just one I thought was wrong. I think galz is absolutely overblowing my defense of TWM and that makes me slightly suspicious of him but Mafia 111 we disagreed on tons of stuff and I felt like he was really not like the town!galz I remembered from years ago and then he turned out to be town.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #151 on: April 04, 2018, 04:46:54 pm »

mcmc is overdefending TWM.

And everyone (except Galzria!) is misunderstanding (?) what I said. There's nothing wrong with asking questions, it's just that it doesn't happen that much. And Galzria had made a big point of saying he didn't know the setup, so that fit a scum narrative. This big a fuss makes me want my vote to stay there for now.

and same amount of criticism goes to you for thinking I was overdefending twm in my two posts where I disagreed with galz's read
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #152 on: April 04, 2018, 04:53:47 pm »

mcmc seems townie as well.  I'm not getting the early townie vibes from faust though.
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #153 on: April 04, 2018, 05:29:07 pm »

mcmc scummy
datswan scummy

nobody else interesting.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #154 on: April 04, 2018, 06:09:11 pm »

mcmc scummy
datswan scummy

nobody else interesting.

Not sure about DatSwan, but I disagree about mcmc.

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #155 on: April 04, 2018, 06:12:12 pm »

mcmc scummy
datswan scummy

nobody else interesting.

Just to be clear? Am I skummy because I voting for you? Or is there like an actual reason?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #156 on: April 04, 2018, 07:21:07 pm »


Tell me I'm always gonna be your best friend.
Now you said it one time, why don't you say it again?
All the way down the line to where the telephone ends
come on and shout it on down the wire.


Vote count 1.4

Galzria (2): EFHW, gkrieg13
Robz888 (2): IDontPlayThisGame, 2.71828...
O (3): faust, O, DatSwan
2.71828... (1): SpaceAnemone
faust (1): Robz888
McMcsalot (1): Galzria
EFHW (2): The_Wine_Merchant, McMcsalot

not voting (1): Roadrunner7671

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, April 9 at 9pm forum time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #157 on: April 04, 2018, 07:45:09 pm »

Okay, I think I've got my game state probability thing set up properly now :-) Here are the chances of there being at least one of each role in the game, given the information we know about there not being any anarchic cops:

There is a 66.6% chance of Tra. (In addition to the named tracker).
There is a 58.6% chance of 1BP.
There is a 58.6% chance of UB.
There is a 48.8% chance of SK.
There is a 45.8% chance of Veng.
There is a 33.9% chance of Dru.
There is a 17.7% chance of DVig.
There is a 2.8% chance of Inv.
There is a 2.8% chance of TRC.
There is a 1.9% chance of BPJK.

Likelihoods of different numbers of Ts, for matching against scum powers:
0 Ts: 7.8%
1 Ts: 25.9%
2 Ts: 34.6%
3 Ts: 23.0%
4 Ts: 7.7%
5 Ts: 1.0%
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #158 on: April 04, 2018, 09:56:49 pm »

Okay, I think I've got my game state probability thing set up properly now :-) Here are the chances of there being at least one of each role in the game, given the information we know about there not being any anarchic cops:

There is a 66.6% chance of Tra. (In addition to the named tracker).
There is a 58.6% chance of 1BP.
There is a 58.6% chance of UB.
There is a 48.8% chance of SK.
There is a 45.8% chance of Veng.
There is a 33.9% chance of Dru.
There is a 17.7% chance of DVig.
There is a 2.8% chance of Inv.
There is a 2.8% chance of TRC.
There is a 1.9% chance of BPJK.

Likelihoods of different numbers of Ts, for matching against scum powers:
0 Ts: 7.8%
1 Ts: 25.9%
2 Ts: 34.6%
3 Ts: 23.0%
4 Ts: 7.7%
5 Ts: 1.0%

Yay so we know nothing. Carry on
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #159 on: April 04, 2018, 09:58:21 pm »

Still very much like my Robz vote, and I agree with the general sentiment that mcmc is townie.

I don't have any feelings about faust, and RR is town for lurking
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #160 on: April 04, 2018, 10:00:25 pm »

mcmc, you're pretty critical of Galzria. Why aren't you voting for him?

vote: efhw Based on the response to my earlier question and this post.
Uh oh. mcmc and I agree on things.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #161 on: April 04, 2018, 10:02:04 pm »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #162 on: April 04, 2018, 10:02:40 pm »

mcmc, you're pretty critical of Galzria. Why aren't you voting for him?

vote: efhw Based on the response to my earlier question and this post.
Uh oh. mcmc and I agree on things.

I know. I like having someone to argue with. It really helps me stay more involved in the game
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #163 on: April 04, 2018, 10:03:14 pm »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.

RR is town for being absent
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #164 on: April 04, 2018, 10:20:35 pm »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.

RR is town for being absent

Please tell me you're not serious.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #165 on: April 04, 2018, 11:11:54 pm »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.

RR is town for being absent
This is me arguing with you.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #166 on: April 05, 2018, 12:37:23 am »

I shall be extra careful with my deductions then! Maybe.

faust seems cheerier than usual. Goid vacation?
Yes, and some time going without any games always gets me more motivated.
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You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #167 on: April 05, 2018, 12:41:59 am »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.

RR is town for being absent

Please tell me you're not serious.
Why? It's a totally valid way to read people, though I don't think very helpful in RR's case.
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faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #168 on: April 05, 2018, 12:43:44 am »

mcmc, you're pretty critical of Galzria. Why aren't you voting for him?

Because they are both scum.

And yet you're voting for faust because:
A lull in the action! Probably means faust is scum. Vote: faust
What is this post trying to achieve?
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faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #169 on: April 05, 2018, 01:47:15 am »

Vote: Idplay
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faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #170 on: April 05, 2018, 01:51:20 am »

I even have a case:

- Idplay is lurking
- he has not posted any content, instead his posts are only vague criticisms of other people's reads and playstyles, which does not help the game at all
- he's keeping an RVS vote on a major wagon without clarifying whether it's serious now.
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #171 on: April 05, 2018, 04:20:15 am »

RR is town for lurking
He isn't lurking. He hasn't posted or been online since the game opened. That is called absent and is alignment proof.

RR is town for being absent

? Is this not meant to say "RR is Null for being absent"?
Please, anyone with a read, explain to me why any player - in this instance, RR - would be either Town or Skum based on exactly zero interactions.

The strangest thing about this imo is the order of events:
we had a prod - whatever, that is fine because, in fairness, he hasn't said a word.
Then 2.7, you say he is Town for lurking - IDK how TWM is capable of figuring out he has not been online, but to the point I am making below it doesn't really matter. That point being...

Isn't this the part where 2.7 is supposed to say "lynch the lurker" or something as opposed to "the lurker is town"?

2.7 - why do you think RR is Town for his absolute inaction in the game thus far?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #172 on: April 05, 2018, 04:44:53 am »

Why is everyone making such a big fuss about e's very inconsequential RR read? Aren't there more important things on your mind? Like you could tell me how you feel about my Idplay case, or explain to me how your read on O developed since you vote for him.
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faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #173 on: April 05, 2018, 04:45:17 am »

The above is directed at DatSwan by the way.
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faust

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #174 on: April 05, 2018, 04:49:23 am »

Also, calling it now: The scumteam is Idplay, EFHW, mcmc.
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