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Author Topic: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (Game over - Town wins!)  (Read 109650 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #575 on: April 12, 2018, 11:17:48 am »

I believe that is three letters accounted for though.

I think a single "O" and a single "L" are more likely, but I don't have time to re-run my probabilities this lunch break.

Ah, wait, I'm being sloppy! I saw that "UB+Tracker" can come about in multiple ways, and accounted for the flips without remembering that we also have to account for the existence of the SK whose existence made there be a second flip in the first place. Definitely need lunch and coffee!

Ok, so you agree with me now on three letters?  There are many possibilities for which three letters, and I didnít want to enumerate them (because I donít think thatís useful right now).
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #576 on: April 12, 2018, 01:52:27 pm »

Ok, so you agree with me now on three letters?  There are many possibilities for which three letters, and I didnít want to enumerate them (because I donít think thatís useful right now).

Yep, we agree. There are extra-many ways it can come about because of the fact that some multiples of S rolls give an extra W to the game.

I think I may have a bug where I've allowed W to resolve to S, which I've realised is explicitly disallowed. I'm glad about this discovery, because it makes everything slightly ill-defined to allow W->S, but I don't know why I wasn't thinking about that when I wrote the original probability-finder script. Hopefully I'll have time to fix it soon!
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

EFHW

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #577 on: April 12, 2018, 01:56:56 pm »

@DatSwan - Why did you choose Robz as an alternate wagon at EOD yesterday?
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EFHW

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #578 on: April 12, 2018, 03:01:56 pm »

Vote count 1.10

Robz888 (3): IDontPlayThisGame, EFHW, O
McMcsalot (1): Galzria
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone
IDontPlayThisGame (4): Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant, gkrieg13, 2.71828...
gkrieg13 (1): faust
Galzria (1): DatSwan

not voting (2): Cuzz

9 a.m. TWM v. e, rejects idea of gkrieg lynch
2:48 p.m. TWM v. IDPTG because no one joined him on e.
3 pm e offers lynch Space
3:49 faust v. space, says going to bed
4:11 e v. space
4:15 gkrieg says Space wagon unlikely to go through
4:22 faust comes back, says he townreads IDP, stays on Space
4:23 Galzria disagrees with DatSwan that scum are comfy, saying scum like to have things in hand, not spread out. Does seem to agree that those with fewer votes in the course of the day are more likely to be scum. DatSwanís scum pool was faust, Galzria, mcmc and Space.
4:27 Galzria wonít vote IDP or Robz. Wants EFHW, TWM, O, e, or gkrieg.
4:43 mcmc w EFHW or O. Wonít vote TWM, IDP, gkrieg, faust, DatSwan, or Robz. Null on Space.
4:56 Robz says O is always scum
5:12 e prefers O over EFHW
5:25 TWM laments failed e wagon.
5:30 TWM v. EFHW, doesnít get why people arenít wanting to vote IDP.

Vote count 1.11

Robz888 (3): IDontPlayThisGame, EFHW, O
McMcsalot (1): Galzria
EFHW (3): mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone, The_Wine_Merchant
IDontPlayThisGame (2): Robz888, gkrieg13
Galzria (1): DatSwan
SpaceAnemone (2): faust, 2.71828

not voting (1): Cuzz

5:46 pm Robz v. EFHW
5:48 Galz posts vote records. He is against voting Robz or IDP. Unvotes mcmc.
5:59 Galz suggests O lynch.
6:03 e tells Galzria to start something
6:10 Galzria v. e. Asks TWM to come back, also Robz, EFHW, Space and mcmc
6:12 EFHW willing to v. e
6:36 Robz predicts no lynch
6:40 Galzria says donít worry, heíll hammer anyone if has to.
6:44 e says to vote Space.
6:50 Galz ok with EFHW lynch, but thinks it is a copout.
6:55 Space thinks Galz is ďoddly non-committal when comes to leading wagonĒ (EFHW)
7:07 TWM wonít leave EFHW wagon for e.
7:26 O v. Galzria. Wonít vote e, EFHW, IDP
7:42 Robz v. IDP, much preferred
7:53 e v. IDP

Vote count 1.12

Robz888 (2): IDontPlayThisGame, EFHW
EFHW (3): mcmcsalot, The_Wine_Merchant, Galzria
IDontPlayThisGame (4): gkrieg13, SpaceAnemone, Robz888, 2.71828
Galzria (2): DatSwan, O
SpaceAnemone (1): faust

not voting (1): Cuzz

8:24 DatSwan v. EFHW
8:29 gkrieg prefers IDP
8:35 TWM v. IDP
8:39 DatSwan wants Robz lynch. 8:40 DatSwan v. Robz
8:42 Galzria doesnít want to vote Robz because he has gotten too much attention throughout the day.
8:44 e tells EFHW to vote IDP. Sheís still hoping for Robz.
8:51 EFHW v. IDP L-1
8:55 Galzria refuses to vote IDP
8:57 DatSwan v. IDP, saying ďSorry, IDPĒ
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #579 on: April 12, 2018, 05:03:38 pm »

@DatSwan - Why did you choose Robz as an alternate wagon at EOD yesterday?

Pretty sure i shared at the time - i didnít like either of the options and then the mini wagon earlier in the day was quickly dismantled on Robz
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #580 on: April 12, 2018, 05:31:25 pm »

Seems to be a lot of misguided attempts being made at me - specifically surrounding my act the end of D1.

So letís clear some stuff up:
1) Agony wasnít fake - didnít think he was gonna flip skum - would of preferred to do Robz, Galz, Faust. To call it agony might be a little much, but not like i am gonna let it go no lynch.

2) i announced i would hammer with 2 mins left. I did this bc my top skum read was he only other dude online to do something. My concern was he claims he will hammer, then last minute ďrealizes whatever reasonĒ and we go no lynch.

What should be looked at is he people try to push my wagon today based on my actions yesterday as ultimately, nothing i did has real merit to be viewed as skummy.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #581 on: April 12, 2018, 08:37:17 pm »

It's nice that Cuzz, Robz, Galzria, Gkrieg, e and Datswan have all agreed at various points that I'm quite scummy and directly or indirectly have been pushing my lynch.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #582 on: April 12, 2018, 08:52:09 pm »

It's nice that Cuzz, Robz, Galzria, Gkrieg, e and Datswan have all agreed at various points that I'm quite scummy and directly or indirectly have been pushing my lynch.

Yeah, it's like you might actually be town with all those people calling for your lynch.
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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #583 on: April 12, 2018, 09:23:21 pm »

It's nice that Cuzz, Robz, Galzria, Gkrieg, e and Datswan have all agreed at various points that I'm quite scummy and directly or indirectly have been pushing my lynch.

why is that nice?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #584 on: April 12, 2018, 10:03:17 pm »

It's nice that Cuzz, Robz, Galzria, Gkrieg, e and Datswan have all agreed at various points that I'm quite scummy and directly or indirectly have been pushing my lynch.

You seem much more focused on yourself this game instead of actually scum hunting.
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O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #585 on: April 12, 2018, 10:20:08 pm »

It's nice that Cuzz, Robz, Galzria, Gkrieg, e and Datswan have all agreed at various points that I'm quite scummy and directly or indirectly have been pushing my lynch.

You seem much more focused on yourself this game instead of actually scum hunting.

More like Iím my own most confident read, and the people Iíve pushed either have no traction as lynches it r lost traction (robz)
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Robz888

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #586 on: April 12, 2018, 10:29:36 pm »

Vote: O
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EFHW

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #587 on: April 12, 2018, 10:45:25 pm »

Thoughts about EOD

Add: 7:22 Space v. IDP
Add: 7:56 Galzria v. EFHW

Robz, gkrieg, Space and TWM talked about IDP as actually likely to be scum. faust, Galzria, mcmc, EFHW, O, DatSwan, and e all either refused to vote him or tried to find other wagons or both.

gkrieg and Robz turned things away from an EFHW lynch.

It's possible enough votes could have been found to lynch e or O.

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.





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2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #588 on: April 13, 2018, 01:40:29 am »

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.

This is where I ended up. People who seemed to have the votes to lynch at end of day were maybe robz, EFHW, IDP. I don't think anyone else was seriously close. If you want to throw me on that list, fine. I didn't feel like I was about to get lynched at all.

From there, IDP was the one I wanted to lynch the most, probably robz least, and (to answer DatSwan's question towards the end of day) I totally would have switched to EFHW to get a lynch.

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW).

Another reason I thought DatSwan's end of day was scummy. Asking that "would you switch to get a lynch" question felt super scummy to me.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #589 on: April 13, 2018, 01:42:15 am »

The question I am left with is how scummy was it to choose IDP over other possibilities. To some of us he seemed obv!town.

This is where I ended up.

"That" being deciding that IDP was the best lynch we were going to get D1 and even though out wasn't my favorite lynch it had to be done.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #590 on: April 13, 2018, 01:51:53 am »

In fact, I would say TWM's vote is what sealed the IDP lynch over you (EFHW).

Just wanted to bring this out for more consideration. There are a few scenarios here:
1) TWM and EFHW are scum partners and his move helped ensure partner doesn't get lynched
2) TWM is scum (EFHW town) and didn't really care which one of the two got lynched. I don't think that TWM casts a bold deciding vote like that as scum though unless he is saving his partner EFHW. It makes him the focal point of the mislynch
3) TWM is town (EFHW alignment neutral) and he decided to just do it. Get the lynch done.

Had TWM waited another 10/15 minutes I see an EFHW lynch happening just as easily as the IDP lynch.

What category do you all think TWM fits in? Or do you not consider his vote really the deciding votr of that lynch?
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #591 on: April 13, 2018, 02:59:15 am »

I think the TWM!Town narrative is perfectly reasonable enough that his vote is not particularly alignment indicative
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Swowl

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #592 on: April 13, 2018, 05:09:35 am »

Kay... a few things:

1) there was this post:
vote: EFHW. Prefer to IDPTG.

2) Then there was this post:
wiat didnt you say you preferred IDP to EFHW?

No.

-- Now Town changes the mind all the time - but he said "no". Just untrue. He absolutely said that he would "Prefer to IDPTG".--

3) Then there is this:
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

- So like, yeah time had passed but nothing had really surfaced on EFHW. Why is it "we need to do IDP" and then all of a sudden "I can't believe we are doing IDP instead of EFHW?". Then he ends up on EFHW?

But like then there is this...
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

There's no case on IDPTG. And he's literally done the EXACT same thing he did in his last town game - RVS vote that stayed the entire time because it developed into a scum read.

So he has no case against him because he is acting EXACTLY THE SAME... but then (as this is the first of the quotes mentioned above) the rest followed.

Galz is the nutz at telling when Faust is off right? Faust was off... but not skum, just Town PR. Which skum would know is the only "off" option.
This is way to many changes on a potential TvT wagon situation than makes sense. Hell, it doesn't make sense in any scenario.

This seems like a lot over a small amount of interaction.

Vote: Galz
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

O

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #593 on: April 13, 2018, 06:55:54 am »

Kay... a few things:

1) there was this post:
vote: EFHW. Prefer to IDPTG.

2) Then there was this post:
wiat didnt you say you preferred IDP to EFHW?

No.

-- Now Town changes the mind all the time - but he said "no". Just untrue. He absolutely said that he would "Prefer to IDPTG".--

3) Then there is this:
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

- So like, yeah time had passed but nothing had really surfaced on EFHW. Why is it "we need to do IDP" and then all of a sudden "I can't believe we are doing IDP instead of EFHW?". Then he ends up on EFHW?

But like then there is this...
all you galz.. I know you want it.

This is stupid.

Not you, the lynch.

I cannot believe people prefer this to EFHW

There's no case on IDPTG. And he's literally done the EXACT same thing he did in his last town game - RVS vote that stayed the entire time because it developed into a scum read.

So he has no case against him because he is acting EXACTLY THE SAME... but then (as this is the first of the quotes mentioned above) the rest followed.

Galz is the nutz at telling when Faust is off right? Faust was off... but not skum, just Town PR. Which skum would know is the only "off" option.
This is way to many changes on a potential TvT wagon situation than makes sense. Hell, it doesn't make sense in any scenario.

This seems like a lot over a small amount of interaction.

Vote: Galz

This is truly an impressive amount of analysis given that itís based on your misreading ďPrefer to idpĒ which is correctly interpreted as ďIím voting EFHW since I prefer her Lynch to idpísĒ
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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #594 on: April 13, 2018, 07:46:06 am »

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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #595 on: April 13, 2018, 07:47:56 am »

Os assessment of datswans post above is dead on. A sincere question that I hope doesnít come off the wrong way: Datswan are you a native English speaker?
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Cuzz

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #596 on: April 13, 2018, 07:49:03 am »

Another question for datswan: can you please explain your vote on e from a little while ago?
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D1 Down the Deep River)
« Reply #597 on: April 13, 2018, 08:09:38 am »

And no one wants a tune about the 100th luftballoon
That was seen shooting from the window of your room
To be a spot against the sky's colossal gloom
And land, deflated, in some neighbor state that's strewn
With 99 others.


Vote count 2.2
O (2): gkrieg13, Robz888
gkrieg13 (1): O
DatSwan (2): 2.71828..., The_Wine_Merchant
Galzria (1): DatSwan

not voting (6): SpaceAnemone, Galzria, Cuzz, EFHW

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, April 18 at 9pm forum time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #598 on: April 13, 2018, 08:32:57 am »

If datswan isnít a native speaker I owe him an apology as the tongue in cheek tone I used would be pretty uncalled for.
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Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D2: [Day One Plus Ones])
« Reply #599 on: April 13, 2018, 10:13:12 am »

I do like DatSwan's energy building the case on galzria though.

I know I have misread posts and gone and built extravagant cases on them and then someone points out that I just misread a post. Not sure how alignment indicative it is though.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.
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