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Author Topic: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 68292 times)

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theorel

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!
« Reply #500 on: March 29, 2018, 10:27:55 pm »

Thinking on it more, even if I could somehow avoid getting lynched I'm pretty sure I had still lost...
You only needed 3 unlynchable players and a vig to win it.

There were 3 possibilities for me:
1. Space investigated me...I had already lost
2. Space investigated vanilla townie.
In this case you had:
2 confirmed towns (schadd + other result).  + guaranteed 2 of 3 honest vig, cop, blocker.
Suppose 1 player in this game is scum...you lynch outside the pool of 5.  Then vig the remaining player, and roleblock the cop (who cops roleblocker).
Suppose vig is scum. If he shoots anywhere else, then he's guaranteed scum...so, lynch him. 
Otherwise, cop verifies he was roleblocked, and it's either vig or cop, 5 players, so lynch them both and win.
Suppose cop is scum.  He got blocked, if he claims "blocked" it's situation 2 above (cop or vig).  If he claims roleblocker is scum, then it's between the two of them, can easily kill both (even have an extra vig shot)
Suppose blocker is scum. If he shoots anyone, he's revealed as scum, since this is the only possible 2-kill situation.  If he doesn't shoot, cop copped him, and with 5 players you can lynch cop and blocker.
So, regardless of who the scum is, town wins.

3. Space investigated the vig.
In this case finally you only have 1 confirmed town.  You have 3 claimed PRs, and 1 of them might be scum.  Then there are 3 other players, and one of them might be scum.  I'm not sure town can guarantee the win here.  Let's see suppose they lynch an unconfirmed-VT, vig another, cop the last one and roleblock the cop.
Then if there are 2 kills overnight, the cop is known town, and the vig is known town.  If the extra kill is the vig, then the cop says if he was roleblocked or not.  If not, the roleblocker is scum, if so, the remaining VT is scum.  If the extra kill is the cop, simply lynch the roleblocker, and vig the remaining VT.  So, in this case town wins.
If there is 1 kill overnight, then if cop says he's blocked, it's either vig, cop, or remaining VT.  Lynch the VT, vig the cop. If town didn't win, lynch the vig (he was scum, so only 1 kill).
If cop says he wasn't blocked.  It's either the cop or the blocker. Lynch one and vig the other.

I'm pretty sure that covers all cases.  I could have waited for Space's claim, to know if it was the easy case, or the hard case...
blocking the cop is unintuitive, and so scum might be able to trick town into thinking that they can't confirm everyone and get to a 50-50 lylo (with 4 players and no vig).  But I feel less bad about missing the fact that townies needed to consider that a claimed PR might be scum.  Since in fact, they could win if they co-ordinated regardless of who the scum was.
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Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!
« Reply #501 on: March 29, 2018, 11:25:47 pm »

Theorel, you were absolutely done, don't think you were wrong to resign at all.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!
« Reply #502 on: March 30, 2018, 08:48:44 am »

Haha, had we somehow lynched Schadd D2, Robz was going to shoot Theorel. Ouch.

Yep!

Incidentally, I shot DatSwan because I thought people would reach the conclusion I was unlikely to shoot him, given that he had wrongly attributed someone else's remarks to me.

I was trying to draw some attention to myself when I posted that series of scummy things... I was worried if everyone kept townreading me I'd get lynched on Day 3. The quickhammer was... unexpected.

Good job town, and YOU'RE WELCOME.

SK RObz has a pretty uncanny shoot mafia rate. You shot me in in mafia 98 when I was scum as well.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)
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