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[schadd]

Reason is that he has stayed completely away from the mcmc wagon. It is obviously the biggest thing going on in the game, but he hasn't voted for him or defended him. He has just ignored it except to say "reasonable" to me and someone else that voted for him.

If mcmc is town then schadd stays off the mislynch wagon. If mcmc is scum, then I don't expect schadd to act this way, but I don't really think mcmc is scum.

i wanted to see if/how galz would leave ww

i asked mcmc what he thought was not tvt

vote: mcmc L-1 people don't tend to defend scum partners on this site, or even avoid voting them really

i townread swan

I could have sworn someone already asked schadd to explain the how gall would react part, but could not find it. schadd can you elaborate?

i think i looked at vote count 1.3 and thought "he he ha ha it is only i and galzria voting ww now that is interesting" and that mcmc wagon was probably gonna be a thing since i and people tend to sightread him quickly and he seemed reasonably scum to me and i assumed other people would see that

there wasn't anything in particular i was expecting him to do, he had seemed committed to ww scum and i thought the way he would switch to mcmc if he did would be interesting somehow. i guess it wasn't really, maybe pending ww's flip

schadd: He has that argument with ww, which now known-town mcmc thought included scum.

i mean you thought it didn't and if you are town you know yourself to be town

True, but now I know that mcmc actually found one of you scummy rather than just trying to get one of you lynched.  So, I'm dialing back my town-v-town read on that interaction some.  Then I scum-read you for the rest of the day, which included that odd "wanted to see what galz did" post.

what i'm interested in is that you haven't seemed to make a value judgement of mcmc's reads

What was weird was that you voted, again without reasoning, immediately after I brought up, what I thought was a pretty good point that no other wagons had been seen that whole day and that this meant mcmc was less likely to be scum.

In addition I felt that your example of one interaction with mcmc was weak and forced, about the tvt thing. But you still hadn't ever commented or given an opinion on a read on mcmc either way until I called you out and you voted for him.

your vote for him below for context

good golly it is within my means to give reasoning for a vote as scum

what i meant by "people don't defend scum partners" is that if a wagon is cropping up on scum, scum don't fight it very often here in my memory, i.e., scum can get wagoned

it happens more often on day 2s than day 1s but like i said mcmc can be read p easily

I think the reasons there are pretty much sufficient. In addition, I do not think you have played a town game. There has not been posts that felt like typical schadd. This isn't enough reason to vote for you, but nor is it enough reason to not vote for you given the above. You haven't been around as much, especially later and later after being around earlier. Again, not a reason to vote alone, but it isn't making my impression of you be townie. Something that I typically get from you. Maybe that is just because it is still early in the whole game?

TL;DR. You have done some scummy stuff and you haven't left your normal townie impression

have u townread me like ever

[schadd]

i incidentally think pps is town

i might put my early-2017 mask on and look at an old game or 2 to support this

space is also seeming a bit town

[schadd]

What was weird was that you voted, again without reasoning, immediately after I brought up, what I thought was a pretty good point that no other wagons had been seen that whole day and that this meant mcmc was less likely to be scum.

In addition I felt that your example of one interaction with mcmc was weak and forced, about the tvt thing. But you still hadn't ever commented or given an opinion on a read on mcmc either way until I called you out and you voted for him.

your vote for him below for context

...

i did also mean "mcmc seems scummy from that post" when i said the vote was reasonable

i suppose you probably want my thinking with him articulated if town, 122 struck me as something people don't think often, usually you will just have someone in particular that you think is scum; 143 seemed like he thought "i am mcmc and town mcmc is confident!" whereas he could have just explained what he was thinking

also stuff like 163 seemed like he was just trying to do stuff, made me think of m98

[SpaceAnemone]

I've made some PPS re-read notes, but really I think my whole evaluation of how scummy he feels is going to hinge on my re-read of theorel, and whether or not PPS's tunnel on theorel can seem in any way sensible.

The arguments in favour of theorel being scum, paraphrased from PPS, seem to be that theorel's reaction to Joseph's SK claim was scummy, PPS hasn't played before with theorel, and theorel's reads list started with an introductory sentence to why a reads list was useful there. I feel like I may have missed a nebulous "he sounds scummy" somewhere, and then a bit more confirmation bias, too...

Code: [Select]

Only 16 game posts, which is lower than I'd have thought.

His very first game post at #52 is a failed attempt to vote theorel, because he had "the scummiest" reaction to Joseph's early joke SK claim, and for a ridiculous reason that theorel is more likely to be scum because PPS hasn't played with him before.

Makes a presumably-jokey SK claim at #83.

Successfully votes theorel at #103. Urges others to vote at #139.

Says at #150 that he can "do a thing" on theorel, but that it's all really based on theorel's initial posts, and how he never did anything to change PPS's read. Emphasizes at #162 that he found one thing scummy and stuck to that because "D1 sucks" and that's how he rolls.

Responds at #173 to WW's post about theorel pseudo-townslipping, but doesn't seem to update his read at all -- only comments on how we already have two claimed SKs. Then a weird "all serious" post at #179, then a huge gap till he takes the hammer at #290. It looked really scummy, except that for PPS it's probably not so alignment-indicative, because I think hammers are something he likes.

His first D2 post is at #319, immediately following a theorel reads post, nad saying that theorel still looks like scum. His main argument here seems to be that theorel's post opened with "Okay, I think I need a reads list to keep track of everybody...", and PPS read that as "I need to make sure I stay congruent while influencing town and trying to appear towny". I opened my main reads list post with "Some things for people to disagree with me on, given that this is going to have to be a readsy game" -- so how is mine (which shows consciousness of how people are likely to take my observations etc, which I think is something I get scumread for)  so much less scummy than theorel's that he's getting scumread for that, and I'm widely townread?

PPS's own reads list is at #333. He comments on Robz, schadd, WW, me, TWM and theorel, but misses out Joseph and Galz entirely. He only talks about theorel in the context of being maybe-partners with WW or me, but then theorel is the one who gets the vote at the end.

He responds at #335 to WW's question about PPS's note on WW's interaction with theorel. It's notable that PPS didn't say "lack of interaction" in his reads, but that seems to be how he's explaining it. His response is 30 mins after the question, even though the question was posted within 90 seconds of PPS's reads.. I've got no record of whether PPS was online or reading things in that time, but it's definitely long enough to pick up the question and go and re-read enough to make something up if the first "observation" about WW and theorel's interactions wasn't actually a real observation at all..

At #345 he responds to schadd's catch of some logic fail in PPS's reads, and at least is willing to admit he was being inconsistent.

At #346 he implies he's set up a "scum trap".

At #354 the game has slowed down again, and he seems to be suggesting that I'd be a good town to flip over. Thankfully that one wasn't followed by a vote.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Reason is that he has stayed completely away from the mcmc wagon. It is obviously the biggest thing going on in the game, but he hasn't voted for him or defended him. He has just ignored it except to say "reasonable" to me and someone else that voted for him.

If mcmc is town then schadd stays off the mislynch wagon. If mcmc is scum, then I don't expect schadd to act this way, but I don't really think mcmc is scum.

i wanted to see if/how galz would leave ww

i asked mcmc what he thought was not tvt

vote: mcmc L-1 people don't tend to defend scum partners on this site, or even avoid voting them really

i townread swan

I could have sworn someone already asked schadd to explain the how gall would react part, but could not find it. schadd can you elaborate?

i think i looked at vote count 1.3 and thought "he he ha ha it is only i and galzria voting ww now that is interesting" and that mcmc wagon was probably gonna be a thing since i and people tend to sightread him quickly and he seemed reasonably scum to me and i assumed other people would see that

there wasn't anything in particular i was expecting him to do, he had seemed committed to ww scum and i thought the way he would switch to mcmc if he did would be interesting somehow. i guess it wasn't really, maybe pending ww's flip

So you got nothing out of what you were, supposedly, waiting for? Cool.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I think the reasons there are pretty much sufficient. In addition, I do not think you have played a town game. There has not been posts that felt like typical schadd. This isn't enough reason to vote for you, but nor is it enough reason to not vote for you given the above. You haven't been around as much, especially later and later after being around earlier. Again, not a reason to vote alone, but it isn't making my impression of you be townie. Something that I typically get from you. Maybe that is just because it is still early in the whole game?

TL;DR. You have done some scummy stuff and you haven't left your normal townie impression

have u townread me like ever

Sure.

And you sure did ignore on a lot of stuff to only fixate on the least important part. I mean, this is like the least substantial portion of anything I am finding you scummy for.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

What I want to know is why you (schadd) thought it was a good idea to vote for mcmc after seeing (that I pointed out) that he had been the only wagon with more than 2 votes all game long? Didn't that seem weird to you? If mcmc had been scum, all he and partner had to do was move to a wagon with another vote and now you have a competing wagon instead of letting him become the default lynch. mcmc as scum wouldn't play like that. But I point that out and instead of introspection we have two "derp" votes after each other to make sure the vote goes through. I have to think at least one of those was from scum. So you or pps. Pick one.

[EFHW]

"The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills, and we are only the thread of the Pattern."

Vote Count 2.2

schadd (2): The_Wine_Merchant, Witherweaver
Galzria (1): theorel
theorel (2): pingpongsam, Joseph2302

Not voting (4): Galzria, Robz888, schadd, SpaceAnemone

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends Tuesday, March 27th at 5:00 p.m.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Prod: Robz

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I'm so sick of getting called out for not tying hard enough, I'm gonna try so hard you'll be CONVINCED I'm scum!

Relevant

[Robz888]

I'm so sick of getting called out for not tying hard enough, I'm gonna try so hard you'll be CONVINCED I'm scum!

Relevant

I'm here, I'm here!

[Robz888]

I've read and re-read the posts since last I contributed, and I don't get like anything out of them. The game is eerily quiet, possibly because scum is being cautious, more likely because lack of flip information deprives us of things to talk about.

I am town reading TWM, I guess. He seems to be participating with a level of townie confidence similar to his postings from M-113, where he was town.

Don't have a lot of other thoughts. Going back and forth in my head on pretty much everybody else.

[pingpongsam]

Agree TWM is being townTWM. I think Space is looking townish. No one has even noticed the scum trap, so sad.

[SpaceAnemone]

Theorel re-read and notes.

Only 26 game posts to date, which is lower than I'd expected. (In contrast, this will be my 32nd post, and I'm notoriously slow at saying stuff in the early game).

#40 Says the mass roleclaim is "dumb", then softens the post by saying he thinks Joseph is prob!town for pushing out of RVS.

#84 Clarifies his reasons for having a town-read on Joseph, in response to mcmc's comment about "this is why scum keeps doing this". I read mcmc as meaning that the push for a massclaim is scummy, but his use of "this", and the content of the post he actually quoted make it ambiguous.

#89 Seems to be taking mcmc's opinions on the possibly-scumminess of Joseph's actions on board. Doesn't explicitly say he's townreading Joseph any less, though.

#102 Votes WW, pushing for wagons to move. Immediately before he voted, Joseph, WW, PPS, mcmc, and I each had one vote apiece.

#126 Voted mcmc for his comment on how schadd vs WW didn't seem TvT. Theorel said he felt exactly the opposite while reading it, and I know I did too, so this seems pretty townie of theorel.

#134 and #164 are both posts I liked because theorel is explaining why it's reasonable for townies to say stuff that others accidentally scumread. I acknowledge that posts like that may be easier to make if the player behind them knows for sure who town is, but this is a multifaction game, so that's never going to be totally true here. These observations feel like genuine town to me.

#226 addresses the Galz-TWM argument, and the fact that it's uncomfortable. Also tries to explain waht went on in the Smash Bros game, which is useful and helpful to town.

#269-#270 gets mildly defensive about Robz saying that theorel's vote seems like a bus (and now in retrospect we know that it can't have been).

#298 Comes into D2 fully engaged and talking about possible explanations for the deaths and stuff. Carrys that on through #299 and #300.

#318 Reads list that PPS later scumread him for because of the opening. He has decent reasons for his reads, and I agree with his opinions of most players. He ends up voting Galz, who's pretty absent overall. He prods Galz at #322.

#361 Oh, there's a question for me that I somehow overlooked earlier! I'll get back to that once I'm done with my current likes of thought.

Overall, I'm leaning townie on theorel. I can sort of see how his logical non-confrontational tone gets scumread by PPS, inasmuch as it sounds like my kind of tone, and I get scumread for the most ridiculously little reasons pretty often too. Anyway, I'm not keen on voting theorel for today at least.

[schadd]

i think i looked at vote count 1.3 and thought "he he ha ha it is only i and galzria voting ww now that is interesting" and that mcmc wagon was probably gonna be a thing since i and people tend to sightread him quickly and he seemed reasonably scum to me and i assumed other people would see that

there wasn't anything in particular i was expecting him to do, he had seemed committed to ww scum and i thought the way he would switch to mcmc if he did would be interesting somehow. i guess it wasn't really, maybe pending ww's flip

So you got nothing out of what you were, supposedly, waiting for? Cool.

gosh i guess not!

as i said it is within my means as scum to make something up. it is also within my means to do it as town, which i do on occasion. lmfeo.

you seem to be either under the impression or pushing the narrative that it was a grand and profound decision i spent a lot of thought on to not vote mcmc immediately. it is just a thing that i thought and did

I think the reasons there are pretty much sufficient. In addition, I do not think you have played a town game. There has not been posts that felt like typical schadd. This isn't enough reason to vote for you, but nor is it enough reason to not vote for you given the above. You haven't been around as much, especially later and later after being around earlier. Again, not a reason to vote alone, but it isn't making my impression of you be townie. Something that I typically get from you. Maybe that is just because it is still early in the whole game?

TL;DR. You have done some scummy stuff and you haven't left your normal townie impression

have u townread me like ever

Sure.

And you sure did ignore on a lot of stuff to only fixate on the least important part. I mean, this is like the least substantial portion of anything I am finding you scummy for.

what did i ignore

if you mean that last paragraph i don't know what i am supposed to responding to. you are saying a bunch of different ways that u think i am different from normal and scum. idk i'm me bitc

What I want to know is why you (schadd) thought it was a good idea to vote for mcmc after seeing (that I pointed out) that he had been the only wagon with more than 2 votes all game long? Didn't that seem weird to you? If mcmc had been scum, all he and partner had to do was move to a wagon with another vote and now you have a competing wagon instead of letting him become the default lynch. mcmc as scum wouldn't play like that. But I point that out and instead of introspection we have two "derp" votes after each other to make sure the vote goes through. I have to think at least one of those was from scum. So you or pps. Pick one.

that is what i was getting at with the people don't tend to defend partners thing. a lot of people here overvalue vca and are conscious of counterwagons. in response, i have observed very often that scum here will bus often and make little attempt to dislodge a scum wagon if one is building.

you were in gilmore girls. silverspawn could have voted datswan and prevented you from getting lynched, but he didn't. and for that reason people pushed him very little for the rest of the game.

it did not seem weird to me that there were a lot of people voting him. i have also mentioned the fact that i think people can form a read on mcmc quickly. i also did that thing, incidentally.

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's a snapshot of the game at #178:

  Joseph2302 (2): mcmcsalot, DatSwan
  Witherweaver (2): schadd, Galzria
  mcmcsalot (4): The_Wine_Merchant, Witherweaver, theorel, SpaceAnemone
  theorel (1): pingpongsam
  schadd (1): Joseph2302
  Not Voting (2): Robz888, Awaclus

If we assume Awaclus was a vig kill, and Swan a scum NK very likely to have landed on town, then we have two towns on Joseph. I'd expect scums not to bus as much in this setup than a standard one, just because there's so much less benefit when we don't get clear colours for wagon-reading. So the fact that Joseph's wagon is quite green-looking makes me think he's more likely to be scum, but with pretty low certainty.

If one of those shots was from a vig, then town might actually know the alignment of someone, which might help someone out there with wagon analysis if I point out wagonny things. I don't think it's anti-town for me to show my thinking in this game in particular, because it helps town if scum can PoE each other and take each other out.

Anyway, this and another few other D1 voting states make me think that WW is another interesting person I'd like to hear a lot more from. Awaclus joined his wagon later, too.

Galz points out that Awaclus is not more likely to be town...but I think the reason that even comes up is because you pivoted from Joseph's wagon to ww's with no real explanation.  Joseph had definitely 1, likely 2 town players voting for him.  Witherweaver had votes on him by 3 players that I think have read pretty scummy this game, with no particular reason to believe any of them are (or were) town.

So, why did you decide to re-read Witherweaver, and why did you ignore Joseph after that first line?

Sorry I missed your direct question earlier. I must've overlooked it in the ceaseless torrent of new posts in this game or something :-P

Yes, it's quite possible that i failed to show my full working in terms of where my thought process was going. I wanted to look for possible scums by seeing whether I thought there were scums on the wagons of the two other people who had multiple votes. In Joseph's case, I think he's got two towns on his tail, so I might have expected a scum to try joining at some point if Joseph is town, therefore I'm not so sure he is. I wasn't feeling confident enough to pay a vote down, and I figured some targeted re-reads may throw up something that I felt more sure about. I certainly haven't stopped considering him potential scum, but I have to weigh that against how easy a mislynch he is for scums to push.

I townread you and schadd to varying degrees, but WW is more of a null, and was so even before my re-read, so he seems to be the other wagon that might be built on scum. It wouldn't surprise me if one or other of WW and Galz is scum, though I wouldn't expect them to be the same flavour of scum because I don't think scum has any real need to bus here. Anyway, I thought hearing more from WW that might be alignment-indicative would help me colour in my wagons a bit better, and my suspicion of him pushed him up my re-read order. I think Galz ought to be next, now I've done you, though it will help if he says some useful alignment-indicative things first...

PPE 1

[theorel]

...

Sorry I missed your direct question earlier. I must've overlooked it in the ceaseless torrent of new posts in this game or something :-P

Yes, it's quite possible that i failed to show my full working in terms of where my thought process was going. I wanted to look for possible scums by seeing whether I thought there were scums on the wagons of the two other people who had multiple votes. In Joseph's case, I think he's got two towns on his tail, so I might have expected a scum to try joining at some point if Joseph is town, therefore I'm not so sure he is. I wasn't feeling confident enough to pay a vote down, and I figured some targeted re-reads may throw up something that I felt more sure about. I certainly haven't stopped considering him potential scum, but I have to weigh that against how easy a mislynch he is for scums to push.

I townread you and schadd to varying degrees, but WW is more of a null, and was so even before my re-read, so he seems to be the other wagon that might be built on scum. It wouldn't surprise me if one or other of WW and Galz is scum, though I wouldn't expect them to be the same flavour of scum because I don't think scum has any real need to bus here. Anyway, I thought hearing more from WW that might be alignment-indicative would help me colour in my wagons a bit better, and my suspicion of him pushed him up my re-read order. I think Galz ought to be next, now I've done you, though it will help if he says some useful alignment-indicative things first...

PPE 1

Makes sense, it wasn't the lack of a vote (though, really, this game is a little low on voting players right now), but rather the fact that the pivot turned into a ww re-read.  At the time, I thought he was the only player you were re-reading, which seemed odd.

[theorel]

...

schadd: He has that argument with ww, which now known-town mcmc thought included scum.

i mean you thought it didn't and if you are town you know yourself to be town

True, but now I know that mcmc actually found one of you scummy rather than just trying to get one of you lynched.  So, I'm dialing back my town-v-town read on that interaction some.  Then I scum-read you for the rest of the day, which included that odd "wanted to see what galz did" post.

what i'm interested in is that you haven't seemed to make a value judgement of mcmc's reads
...

I'm not sure I follow what you're "interested" in.  My original collection of thoughts is just the things that seemed salient from the previous day as I considered each player (and scanned their posts to remember what happened). One of those facts is that mcmc thought there was scum in your argument with witherweaver.  My reaction to that fact, given that mcmc is town, is to temper my original reaction, because I have no particular reason to believe that my read of the situation was in fact the correct one.  I'm not embracing mcmc's reaction, because I have no particular reason to believe that his read was in fact the correct one.

It feels like you accused me of taking mcmc's read and deciding you must be scum because of it, and so I explained the "value" judgments in my reasoning (i.e. recognizing mcmc's alignment reduced my town-read, looking at the rest of the day turned it into a scum-read), but then you accused me of not making a value judgment? I'm not sure what kind of "value" you're expecting...unless you just mean the original post?  I didn't offer much value there for anyone until the conclusion...I think you're just stuck on a style thing.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

that is what i was getting at with the people don't tend to defend partners thing. a lot of people here overvalue vca and are conscious of counterwagons. in response, i have observed very often that scum here will bus often and make little attempt to dislodge a scum wagon if one is building.

Not day 1. Bussing on day 1 is basically suicide. Especially with only two partners.

And I am not even talking about defending. I am just talking about a subtle move toward someone other than mcmc to make it a viable option. I actually anticipated people suspecting me of exactly that when I moved off mcmc which is why I didn't exactly spell it out yesterday.

But OK. I am not going to convince you of this. If you are town, then you are convinced you are town and did a townie thing. If you are scum I am not trying to convince you. But am interested if this idea is working for anyone else or if I am totally off base?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Space could be scum.

^Helpful post.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I don't really know why though. So that is hard for me to express. But thought if I put it out there and started typing it might help me figure it out.

But it didn't.

[Witherweaver]

Space seems town to me, though that's usually the case earlier on in games.

[pingpongsam]

Can someone elucidate for me why a kill seems to be missing from last night? I thought we would expect a NK and a SK. Yeah, tthere's a vig but why would they blindly shoot N1?

[Robz888]

Can someone elucidate for me why a kill seems to be missing from last night? I thought we would expect a NK and a SK. Yeah, tthere's a vig but why would they blindly shoot N1?

I think we probably shouldn't speculate too wildly about this, since it would help scum pinpoint the vig, but yes, the vig deciding not to shoot is definitely not that weird to me.

Deadline is tomorrow, FWIW.

[theorel]

Vigilante shots are roughly equivalent to a lynch, just with less argument.  Vigilantes should always shoot, because it effectively doubles the number of town-directed kills which greatly increases the chance that town wins.

Limited-shot vigs, and parity situations can change this, but vigs should shoot in general. 

Consider an 11-player game, by day 3 with no vig town got 3 lynches, and scum got 3 kills.  There are 5 players left.  With a vig by day 2 there are 5 players left, town got 2 lynches, and 2 kills, scum got 2 kills...so 4 possibly scum-deaths versus 3 possible scum-deaths.