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Author Topic: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 68314 times)

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theorel

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - N1
« Reply #300 on: March 20, 2018, 11:23:39 am »

Okay, rereading Datswan...looks like he was early suspicious of mcmc and Joseph.  Then his vote for Robz, seems to have been a misunderstanding of Galz' post above, since he interpreted it against Robz, when I think it's just against me?

So, I doubt Robz would feel compelled to kill him over it.  Maybe Joseph, but I'm not putting high likelihood on it only applies to one person.
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Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - N1
« Reply #301 on: March 20, 2018, 11:56:17 am »

I'm somewhat concerned that we nail scum day-1, and then I get vigged, because of random claims that I'm bussing, without a reasonable chance to defend myself.

Not really something to be somewhat concerned about, lynching scum Day 1 is so great when it happens. I’m sure you don’t want to be vigged, but no one else does either, so.

I agree. This seems an odd fear. Even were I say, a cop, if we lynched mafia D1 I wouldn't be at all bitter about being vigged N1.

Not to mention... being Vigged is an oddly specific way to worry about dying. Not SK'd, not Mafia Killed... Vigged. I dunno. Rubs me wrong to be concerned about that in particular.

Glancing back up the page, I'm reminded of this, which I didn't have a chance to respond to yesterday before the day ended.  I was specifically concerned about being suspected of bussing mcmc, so in that instance vig is the only kill I'd be worried about.  I'm not sure why that seems odd to you, but obviously other people agreed.  In hindsight as Robz said, being nk'd after a day1 scum-kill is not really a big deal...I think, maybe I was just feeling good about hitting on what I thought was scum, and kind of bummed out that people thought I was bussing.

It's just that scum worries about this way more than town. If you're town it's bad for you to get vigged, but it's bad for any member of the town to get vigged.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - N1
« Reply #302 on: March 20, 2018, 12:50:48 pm »

Okay, rereading Datswan...looks like he was early suspicious of mcmc and Joseph.  Then his vote for Robz, seems to have been a misunderstanding of Galz' post above, since he interpreted it against Robz, when I think it's just against me?

So, I doubt Robz would feel compelled to kill him over it.  Maybe Joseph, but I'm not putting high likelihood on it only applies to one person.

I agree with this.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - N1
« Reply #303 on: March 20, 2018, 01:08:02 pm »

I don't think it really hit me until seeing the deaths just now...how tough it would be getting no information from nks.
Well, let's see...without knowing anything else, we're missing a kill, it was either blocked or collided.

Awaclus seems like an unlikely scum kill for either SK or mafia.  He was not exactly highly participatory, not really a town-read.  I guess scum could kill him as a wild-card, but I'd expect lots of others first.  So, I'm guessing he was the vig-kill.

Datswan seems like a more likely scum-kill.  Pretty townie all-in-all, I think, might be worth reviewing his reads to see if scum might have killed him for his suspicions?

Interestingly, both kills are off-wagon.  Ups the chances that scum was on-wagon.  If at least both mafia are on-wagon, that gives pretty good chances of finding them.  Just from final vote-count ww and robz come off a bit scummy.
I agree that Awaclus looks like a vig kill. He wasn't looking that towny IMO.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #304 on: March 20, 2018, 02:38:43 pm »

Wash the spears — while the sun climbs high.
Wash the spears — while the sun falls low.
Wash the spears — Who fears to die?
Wash the spears — No one I know!

Wash the spears — while life holds true.
Wash the spears — until life ends.
Wash the spears...

...Wash the spears — Life is a dream.
Wash the spears — All dreams must end.


Final Day 1 Vote Count

Joseph2302 (1): mcmcsalot
Witherweaver (1): Awaclus
mcmcsalot (7): Witherweaver, theorel, SpaceAnemone, Robz888, Galzria, schadd, pingpongsam
schadd (2): Joseph2302, The_Wine_Merchant
Robz888 (1): DatSwan

Not voting (0): 

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

mcmcsalot has awoken from the dream. al'Lan Mandragoran, Uncrowned King of Malkier, Dai Shan, Aan'allein is dead. He walked in the Light.

Day 2 starts Tuesday, March 20 at 10:30 a.m. forum time. Orders due by 8 a.m. that day.

So the off-wagon people were mcmc, Awaclus, me, TWM & DatSean. And of those, 3 are dead. That's interesting.
But this no flip thing is weird, we'd have so much more info with a flip (obviously).
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #305 on: March 20, 2018, 02:39:04 pm »

I'm thinking at least 1, and maybe 2, scum were on the D1 wagon
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #306 on: March 20, 2018, 03:44:05 pm »

I'm thinking at least 1, and maybe 2, scum were on the D1 wagon

Doesn't this imply that you think TWM is scum?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #307 on: March 20, 2018, 03:44:39 pm »

And yourself if you don't land on '2'...
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Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #308 on: March 20, 2018, 03:53:01 pm »

I'm thinking at least 1, and maybe 2, scum were on the D1 wagon

Doesn't this imply that you think TWM is scum?

Well no it doesn't, because even though some of the other off-wagon folks are dead, we don't know their flips. Awaclus/DS are dead and off-wagon, but we don't know whether they are scum or not. Which makes wagon analysis a pretty useless scum hunting approach this game, actually.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #309 on: March 20, 2018, 05:19:52 pm »

And yourself if you don't land on '2'...
No because I think the people on wagon are scummy.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #310 on: March 20, 2018, 05:30:17 pm »

I'm realizing that scum!theorel would have known mcmc was going to flip town, and thus would not have really had to worry about being vigged for seeming like mcmc's partner. So I guess I'm not really suspicious of him anymore.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #311 on: March 20, 2018, 05:54:52 pm »

I'm thinking at least 1, and maybe 2, scum were on the D1 wagon

Doesn't this imply that you think TWM is scum?

Well no it doesn't, because even though some of the other off-wagon folks are dead, we don't know their flips. Awaclus/DS are dead and off-wagon, but we don't know whether they are scum or not. Which makes wagon analysis a pretty useless scum hunting approach this game, actually.

Oh, right, I forgot that.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #312 on: March 20, 2018, 06:52:40 pm »

vote: schadd
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #313 on: March 20, 2018, 06:55:35 pm »

Also would be happy with a pps lynch. Scummy behavior that fed does actually let people get away with: hammering unnecessarily fast
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #314 on: March 20, 2018, 08:43:45 pm »

Also would be happy with a pps lynch. Scummy behavior that fed does actually let people get away with: hammering unnecessarily fast

You mean, like, as policy? PPS has pretty much established that he'd do it as town or scum.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #315 on: March 20, 2018, 08:44:23 pm »

I think I'd be okay lynching Robz.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #316 on: March 20, 2018, 09:05:26 pm »

That mcmc lynch had far too much early momentum, which I'm guilty of supporting, so we didn't exactly make scum work hard for that mislynch.

However, I'm looking at what the other options would have been. I'd deliberately tried to open up a suggestion of moving to Joseph, but nobody did. Now that Datswan is the apparent NK, we have some confidence that he's town, meaning that Joseph would at that point have had two towns on his wagon  (Swan's move over to Robz came only one post before PPS's hammer. So the Joseph wagon should have been a good place to put a "look, I'm helping" scum-vote for towncred, but nobody took it that way. Maybe it's just coincidence, but I also think that's more likely to happen with Joseph as scum.
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #317 on: March 20, 2018, 09:16:16 pm »

Also would be happy with a pps lynch. Scummy behavior that fed does actually let people get away with: hammering unnecessarily fast

You mean, like, as policy? PPS has pretty much established that he'd do it as town or scum.
As in it is scummy behavior, especially the wayit was done. With the first signs of dissent to the mcmc lynch and then boom before it happens there is a vote.

But I do think schadd is scummier from the before and after in regard to mcmc
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

theorel

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #318 on: March 21, 2018, 08:45:01 am »

Okay, I think I need a reads list to keep track of everybody...
Robz: absent much of day 1.  Comes back in support of the mcmc-lynch with I feel like good reasoning, but of course we now know that was a bad lynch.  After a fresh read, often town can come in with a new direction, scum would probably feel good about pushing the leading wagon.  Still, his arguments and reactions sound townier.  I'm going to lean town here, if that's right, it's unfortunate that he didn't come in with a new direction yesterday, but it is what it is.

Joseph: early mass-claim push, and then he kind of just laid low until later in the day where he kind of avoided talking about mcmc.  Says he's going to re-read "especially mcmc", but ends up voting schadd without explicit reasoning.  Which, while I don't know that it's particularly scummy, it doesn't help get anyone off of mcmc either.  This could easily be scum trying to avoid a known bad-lynch, while trying not to derail it.  I'm leaning a little scummy here.

schadd: He has that argument with ww, which now known-town mcmc thought included scum.  After TWM notes that only mcmc has gotten above 2 votes, and pushes him for inactivity...he makes a comment about galz, and joins mcmc?  (@schadd: what did you mean by "i wanted to see if/how galz would leave ww"?)  Also he joins mcmc after TWM points out that it's scummy that he stayed off.  Highest scum-read so far.

SpaceAnemone: joins the mcmc wagon early and sticks there.  She does try to prod people to give more info, offers reads, and generally seems to do pro-town work.  I'm reading town here.

TWM: was on mcmc before it was cool.  Then had an argument with galz. Then switched back to mcmc, until he unvoted later to try to make other things happen (like schadd).  He reads town to me for how this went down, even though it's something scum might like to do to distance themselves from a bad lynch.  I guess I might be influenced by my scum-read of schadd, but I'm strongly reading him as town.

Theorel: I'm town, wee

Galzria: He agrees with mcmc, then agrees with schadd, then fights with TWM, over asking mcmc to provide examples, then agrees with robz, twice. He seems to be drawing his opinions from other players rather than providing his own...might be a higher scum-read than schadd.

Witherweaver: Argument with schadd, where he doesn't vote him. Ends up on mcmc, and sticks there while trying to pull arguments out of others. Pulled a good bit of heat over the day, but it never went anywhere...still, I'm going to tentatively lean town here.

pps: he voted for me early with no reason, and just stuck to it.  When providing an argument, it was "it's all really based on his initial posts", which doesn't really explain what he found scummy...then he defends it being forced because it's day1.  And then he hammered.  While the hammer is apparently NAI for pps, the rest reads scummy to me.  A lot like Joseph, he looked like he was trying to go somewhere other than pps, but didn't really push to make it happen.

I'm going to go ahead with vote: Galzria, though I could be persuaded to help with schadd. 
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pingpongsam

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #319 on: March 21, 2018, 05:44:42 pm »

I admit I am not in this game for reasons but I am going to get into tomorrow and Butts are going to get busted. Theorel still looks like scum with that last post. Mainly with how he prefaced it. It sounds like, “I need to make sure I stay congruent while influencing town and trying to appear towny”. To be fair it’s a pretty removed analysis that deserves more review.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #320 on: March 21, 2018, 08:10:02 pm »

I haven’t played a ton with the Orel but that seems pretty par for the course for him. He did it in the mime game.

Prod: schadd who normally doesn’t need prodding
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

theorel

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #321 on: March 21, 2018, 09:39:26 pm »

I generally go to the sign-up post, grab the list of players, eliminate the dead ones, and make sure I know what everyone is doing.  I don't like to overlook the things that people are doing, it makes it too easy for scum to slip under the radar.
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theorel

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #322 on: March 21, 2018, 09:41:06 pm »

prod: Galzria he also has not yet posted today.
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Galzria

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #323 on: March 21, 2018, 10:29:24 pm »

I've been reading. Won't have time to do much today or tomorrow. Will try to get something in Friday morning. Completely unavailable Saturday/Sunday. Monday will be my first actually available day to post.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 2
« Reply #324 on: March 21, 2018, 10:31:34 pm »

I've been reading. Won't have time to do much today or tomorrow. Will try to get something in Friday morning. Completely unavailable Saturday/Sunday. Monday will be my first actually available day to post.
What were your first impressions when you saw mcmc flip? Or awal or days wan dead? Reread a are nice, but Monday is a day before deadline.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)
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