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Author Topic: M114: Wheel of Time II - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 68813 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2018, 05:22:15 am »

Joseph - why do you think it is valuable to mass claim in this game?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2018, 05:24:10 am »

Joseph - why do you think it is valuable to mass claim in this game?
It's always a good idea to get information
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

pingpongsam

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2018, 08:46:54 am »

As much as I would like to Vote: witherweaver I must Vote: theorel.

2 reasons. 1 because he has the scummiest reaction to Joseph who is now obvtown. 2 because I don’t think I have played with theorel which statistically, probabilisticly, hoo doo, voo doo makes him way more likely to be scum.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2018, 09:15:51 am »

Joseph - why do you think it is valuable to mass claim in this game?
It's always a good idea to get information

What makes you think we won't just get 11 claimed VTs and a joke-claiming Joseph if we do a mass-claim now?
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2018, 09:20:06 am »

statistically, probabilisticly, hoo doo, voo doo

I'll take the bait: Vote: PPS :-)
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2018, 09:46:10 am »

In general, people aren't going to flip this game, which is going to make the gameplay different. Annoyingly, it's still not close enough to be that similar to the home-brew IRL no-flip Werewolf variant I used to play for me to have any useful extra insights.

I think it's going to make some kinds of scum hunting -- the ones I tend to rely on the most -- much harder, because mafia here are going to be more free than usual to throw their votes around without having to worry that town gets to know they've been tunneling towns and reading their partner as super-townie. Post-hoc wagon analysis gets super-tricky when it's all conditioned on whether we retrospectively think that X looked scummy or not, rather than knowing that a wagon on Y was mostly conf!town or something.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2018, 11:03:03 am »

I agree with Mcmc, and I support his assertion without request for more evidence. He's correct. If you want more evidence, I suggest you look it up yourself.
I don't think that is how it works.

And to be clear, I am not suggesting or supporting mass claim. I am just skeptical of the assertion that those that push for mass claim are more likely to be scum. If you want to convince me of something you must provide the evidence. Until then I will remain skeptical. But I think we can all live with that if we must.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2018, 11:24:44 am »

vote: witherweaver

You have chosen... Poorly.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2018, 11:28:10 am »

I agree with Mcmc, and I support his assertion without request for more evidence. He's correct. If you want more evidence, I suggest you look it up yourself.
I don't think that is how it works.

And to be clear, I am not suggesting or supporting mass claim. I am just skeptical of the assertion that those that push for mass claim are more likely to be scum. If you want to convince me of something you must provide the evidence. Until then I will remain skeptical. But I think we can all live with that if we must.

It makes some sense because it's a way to appear active, productive, and that you have been thinking critically about the game, but doesn't actually take much work. I'd also generally think scum wants massclaim less, so they may want to appear to support it.
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Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2018, 11:38:46 am »

I agree with Mcmc, and I support his assertion without request for more evidence. He's correct. If you want more evidence, I suggest you look it up yourself.
I don't think that is how it works.

And to be clear, I am not suggesting or supporting mass claim. I am just skeptical of the assertion that those that push for mass claim are more likely to be scum. If you want to convince me of something you must provide the evidence. Until then I will remain skeptical. But I think we can all live with that if we must.

Everybody who thinks pushing massclaim = not scummy reeeeeeally needs to look back at Smash Bros mafia. Scum totally pushed an early massclaim because it was in scum’s benefit while also being perceived as something town does. And Joseph was very muc in that game, he was the Day 1 lynch. So no I’m not awarding any town points to Joseph here.
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Robz888

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #60 on: March 11, 2018, 11:40:36 am »

I would have to think harder about whether early massclaim could be good for town, but the default assumption should be no, and rushing into early mass claim has very recently been a total disaster for town, and a really obvious one in hindsight.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #61 on: March 11, 2018, 12:57:30 pm »

I would have to think harder about whether early massclaim could be good for town, but the default assumption should be no, and rushing into early mass claim has very recently been a total disaster for town, and a really obvious one in hindsight.

My first reaction is that it would be bad.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #62 on: March 11, 2018, 01:04:48 pm »

I would have to think harder about whether early massclaim could be good for town, but the default assumption should be no, and rushing into early mass claim has very recently been a total disaster for town, and a really obvious one in hindsight.

My first reaction is that it would be bad.
I think the only possibility for benefit would be PR claiming and non-PR claiming. But that still seems bad, but not as bad as a full mass claim.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #63 on: March 11, 2018, 01:07:51 pm »

And one example from a sample of 100+ is still not convincing.
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Swowl

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #64 on: March 11, 2018, 01:44:29 pm »

Joseph - why do you think it is valuable to mass claim in this game?
It's always a good idea to get information

I mean I guess. But wouldn't this give skum more information than it would give us? I just don't see like any incentive to do this at all. I need to re read how the flips work, but I believe this would be another point against such an early organized claim.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #65 on: March 11, 2018, 01:51:53 pm »

The two benefits I can see are:

Town directing vig kills, which seems a bit better than vig deciding for themselves and not accidentally shooting other PRs

Knowing that when a PR is NK that they were a PR.

Both have limited utility I think compared to scum knowing which PRs to kill. It is also worth pointing out that claims reduce the information that town can get from analyzing night kills as the kills become obvious for mafia.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

schadd

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #66 on: March 11, 2018, 03:17:25 pm »

massclaim is bad. depending on whether sk and scum kill differently (which nobody should talk in detail about but i think is likely) and whether roleblocker hits, we would have 2 PRs dead d2 and the next, which is worse than any sort of problem with being unclaimed

it doesn't give us information for lynching purposes either since we weren't going to lynch the PRs anyway

vote: witherweaver

You have chosen... Poorly.
i agree with you that i am town
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Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #67 on: March 11, 2018, 03:28:29 pm »

massclaim is bad. depending on whether sk and scum kill differently (which nobody should talk in detail about but i think is likely) and whether roleblocker hits, we would have 2 PRs dead d2 and the next, which is worse than any sort of problem with being unclaimed

it doesn't give us information for lynching purposes either since we weren't going to lynch the PRs anyway

vote: witherweaver

You have chosen... Poorly.
i agree with you that i am town
Fine let's not mass claim just yet then.
It was just an idea to try and spice the game up
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #68 on: March 11, 2018, 03:29:15 pm »

Although the no flips is going to be interesting, as we won't know whether there's 2 or 3 factions left, whether we're at LYLO/MYLO etc.....
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
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schadd

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #69 on: March 11, 2018, 03:51:45 pm »

It was just an idea to try and spice the game up
maaaaan
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #70 on: March 11, 2018, 04:12:25 pm »

Although the no flips is going to be interesting, as we won't know whether there's 2 or 3 factions left, whether we're at LYLO/MYLO etc.....
We get flips at lynches though. So let's just correctly lynch?
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #71 on: March 11, 2018, 05:06:03 pm »

Although the no flips is going to be interesting, as we won't know whether there's 2 or 3 factions left, whether we're at LYLO/MYLO etc.....
We get flips at lynches though. So let's just correctly lynch?

Wow, I had somehow entirely overlooked that.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #72 on: March 11, 2018, 05:08:23 pm »

It was just an idea to try and spice the game up
maaaaan

I'm not even surprised... this is the same player who repeats the not-pro-town meta of claiming SK every game.
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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #73 on: March 11, 2018, 05:10:17 pm »

Town directing vig kills, which seems a bit better than vig deciding for themselves and not accidentally shooting other PRs

Aren't you usually absolutely belligerently dead against town trying to direct PRs in any way?
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M114: Wheel of Time II - Day 1
« Reply #74 on: March 11, 2018, 05:23:18 pm »

Town directing vig kills, which seems a bit better than vig deciding for themselves and not accidentally shooting other PRs

Aren't you usually absolutely belligerently dead against town trying to direct PRs in any way?
I am typically set against Players of unknown alignment give suggestions. Even then vigs seem slightly different. But mostly it is the not shooting other PRs on accident that is beneficial. In terms of mass claiming, that is.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)
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