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[jonts26]

So I haven't seen any mention of this new feature which popped up on my player page. It was really interesting to see that I quite excel with Base set cards and am apparently terrible with Hinterlands.

How are these values calculated? I imagine it's some sort of aggregation of the data on the popular buys page.

[Robz888]

That's a cool feature. Apparently I'm great with Cornucopia, which is news to me, because I couldn't win with Tournament if my life depended on it.

I'm also good with Seaside and Intrigue, which makes sense because those were the physical sets I owned the longest. And I'm terrible with Alchemy, which is obvious.

But Cornucopia!? Who knew...

[rrenaud]

I should have given David Lu thanks for it, and for also making the player pages not quite as dog slow (hopefully much more on that front is coming).

It's a pretty simple calculation.  Each game contributes some weight to your win stats per expansion proportional on the fraction of cards from that expansion in the game.  You divide out the average win rate, and you have the per expansion favor.

[rrenaud]

Don't get too carried away with small differences, maybe I should have made him put variance bars on the estimates ;P.

[theory]

Prosperity   2.51   1.19   0.51%
Seaside      2.22   1.19   0.10%
Dominion   2.21   1.19   -0.04%
Intrigue   2.09   1.18   -0.44%
Cornucopia   0.33   1.16   -2.08%
Alchemy      0.32   1.26   6.01%
Promotional   0.23   1.19   -0.18%
Hinterlands   0.10   0.99   -16.50%

I am dumbfounded.

[Robz888]

Prosperity   2.51   1.19   0.51%
Seaside      2.22   1.19   0.10%
Dominion   2.21   1.19   -0.04%
Intrigue   2.09   1.18   -0.44%
Cornucopia   0.33   1.16   -2.08%
Alchemy      0.32   1.26   6.01%
Promotional   0.23   1.19   -0.18%
Hinterlands   0.10   0.99   -16.50%

I am dumbfounded.

You are almost as bad with Hinterlands as I am with/without Goons.

Goons Effect With: -2.36 Effect Without: -42.61

[rrenaud]

Effect with of -42 is unreasonably insane.  Sorry.  I screwed up the pop buys page when I removed the smoothing.

[Robz888]

Effect with of -42 is unreasonably insane.  Sorry.  I screwed up the pop buys page when I removed the smoothing.

I don't know, it might not be insane. I ALWAYS veto Goons. Consequently, I rarely play with it, and I am absolutely terrible when it is in play.

[Davio]

Prosperity   2.01   1.25   -0.46%
Dominion   1.95   1.26   0.34%
Seaside   1.71   1.25   -0.59%
Intrigue   1.66   1.25   -1.09%
Alchemy   1.00   1.26   0.15%
Cornucopia   0.72   1.29   2.27%
Hinterlands   0.69   1.29   2.41%
Promotional   0.26   1.24   -1.38%

I'm the master of Hinterlands, mwahahaha. Cornucopia a close second. So I'm best with the sets I haven't gotten around to purchasing a real life copy of, that's kind of weird.

I wonder how this is calculated, because I think it makes more sense when at least X (prob 3, maybe 4) or more cards from a set are present in the kingdom. You can't say I'm bad with Prosperity if I lose every time only one card from the set is in.

[olneyce]

Prosperity   2.01   1.25   -0.46%
Dominion   1.95   1.26   0.34%
Seaside   1.71   1.25   -0.59%
Intrigue   1.66   1.25   -1.09%
Alchemy   1.00   1.26   0.15%
Cornucopia   0.72   1.29   2.27%
Hinterlands   0.69   1.29   2.41%
Promotional   0.26   1.24   -1.38%

I'm the master of Hinterlands, mwahahaha. Cornucopia a close second. So I'm best with the sets I haven't gotten around to purchasing a real life copy of, that's kind of weird.

I wonder how this is calculated, because I think it makes more sense when at least X (prob 3, maybe 4) or more cards from a set are present in the kingdom. You can't say I'm bad with Prosperity if I lose every time only one card from the set is in.

I see your 'master of Hinterlands claim' and raise it significantly.

Hinterlands   0.85   1.38   8.60%

[Axxle]

Prosperity   2.22   1.18   2.03%
Seaside   1.99   1.11   -3.67%
Dominion   1.94   1.18   1.92%
Intrigue   1.89   1.11   -3.99%
Alchemy   0.82   1.23   6.86%
Hinterlands   0.53   1.21   4.60%
Cornucopia   0.36   1.15   -0.65%
Promotional   0.25   1.10   -4.92%
 
Just call me Axxlechemist from now on.

I knew Seaside would be low since I still don't have a hang of duration cards missing the shuffle and what not. Island is a little bit of a trap card for me. Surprised to see Intrigue even lower though.

[Kirian]

Prosperity   2.23   1.16   1.03%
Dominion   1.92   1.15   0.47%
Intrigue   1.92   1.12   -1.99%
Seaside   1.88   1.13   -1.41%
Alchemy   0.90   1.14   -0.12%
Cornucopia   0.52   1.23   7.22%
Hinterlands   0.36   1.12   -1.97%
Promotional   0.26   1.16   1.22%

Apparently I win at Cornucopia.  WINNING.

[Ozle]

Card Set Avg. Cards
Per Kingdom Weighted
Win Points Favor
Dominion 2.67 1.60 7.68%
Seaside 2.49 1.43 -3.48%
Intrigue 2.40 1.36 -7.97%
Alchemy 0.91 1.62 9.53%
Prosperity 0.67 1.30 -12.34%
Hinterlands 0.56 1.76 18.62%
Cornucopia 0.24 1.13 -23.98%
Promotional 0.06 2.00 35.00%

Ive not played that many games, so bigger swings, but 35% of Promo cards, winnder of highest percentage?

[chwhite]

Card Set   Avg. Cards
Per Kingdom   Weighted
Win Points   Favor
Prosperity   2.08   1.22   0.91%
Seaside   1.79   1.21   0.13%
Dominion   1.73   1.20   -1.44%
Intrigue   1.66   1.22   0.74%
Alchemy   1.01   1.22   0.17%
Hinterlands   0.76   1.15   -4.95%
Cornucopia   0.70   1.23   1.73%
Promotional   0.26   1.29   6.05%

Bad at Hinterlands and Base, good at Cornucopia and the promos.  Except for the promos, this is not surprising.  The promos are quite surprising, since I thought Governor was one of my worst cards.  But apparently it's not anymore, and Black Market is one of my best, so there you go.  Small sample size strikes again!

You are almost as bad with Hinterlands as I am with/without Goons.

Goons Effect With: -2.36 Effect Without: -42.61

This happens if you've never won a game without Goons.  Which is plausible, because Goons is just that awesome.  At one point, I had like a -70 or so effect with for Noble Brigand, because I'd never bought it and won.

[The 9th Doctor]

This happens if you've never won a game without Goons.  Which is plausible, because Goons is just that awesome.  At one point, I had like a -70 or so effect with for Noble Brigand, because I'd never bought it and won.

Interesting.  I just played this game where I didn't buy Goons and won and was pondering this very question.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201202/24/game-20120224-205012-f6e1d9a5.html

Some of it was simple perversity--I wanted to see if I could beat someone good without going for Goons.  But I think it was actually a pretty decent circumstance to avoid Goons.  The only trashing was from Jack - which is not conducive to a Goons engine, and provides a nice counter since it lets you discard green cards and draw better ones.  Witches on the board meant there were curses to gum up the works.  Jack+Witch is pretty solid for a Big Money deck, and since I definitely wanted both of those, there was a real risk of major terminal collision if I started getting Goons, too.  Is completely ignoring Goons the right call here?

[chwhite]

This happens if you've never won a game without Goons.  Which is plausible, because Goons is just that awesome.  At one point, I had like a -70 or so effect with for Noble Brigand, because I'd never bought it and won.

Interesting.  I just played this game where I didn't buy Goons and won and was pondering this very question.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201202/24/game-20120224-205012-f6e1d9a5.html

Some of it was simple perversity--I wanted to see if I could beat someone good without going for Goons.  But I think it was actually a pretty decent circumstance to avoid Goons.  The only trashing was from Jack - which is not conducive to a Goons engine, and provides a nice counter since it lets you discard green cards and draw better ones.  Witches on the board meant there were curses to gum up the works.  Jack+Witch is pretty solid for a Big Money deck, and since I definitely wanted both of those, there was a real risk of major terminal collision if I started getting Goons, too.  Is completely ignoring Goons the right call here?

Quite possibly, with Jack and Witch around there isn't really going to be an opportunity to go for a mega engine, and the discard is unlikely to hurt much.  I might have still bought one over a Gold at some point, but it's by no means dominant.   In all seriousness, even a card as good as Goons has boards where you can skip it.

[Wingnut]

Prosperity          2.10   1.22   0.65%
Dominion           1.74   1.20   -0.76%
Seaside           1.64   1.23   1.69%
Intrigue           1.58   1.18   -1.98%
Alchemy           0.97   1.20   -0.72%
Hinterlands   0.95   1.23   1.36%
Cornucopia   0.80   1.18   -2.78%
Promotional   0.22   1.32   9.04%

I am the Governator. There is no other explanation. Especially since Governor has consistently been one of my best cards from the moment it came out. My level even fluctuates based on whether I am seeing it a lot of not.

[mangsky]

Dominion   2.10   1.18   3.00%
Prosperity   1.89   1.12   -1.72%
Seaside   1.58   1.15   0.65%
Intrigue   1.39   1.17   2.66%
Hinterlands   1.39   1.04   -9.47%
Alchemy   0.77   1.15   0.47%
Cornucopia   0.66   1.12   -1.65%
Promotional   0.22   1.46   27.37%

man what are the damned cards in Hinterlands lol

[Mister Alex]

Dominion   2.21   1.02   0.93%
Prosperity   1.89   1.02   1.05%
Hinterlands   1.55   0.97   -4.43%
Intrigue   1.35   1.02   1.06%
Seaside   1.35   1.02   1.16%
Alchemy   0.71   1.07   5.91%
Cornucopia   0.58   0.92   -9.10%
Promotional   0.35   1.04   2.73%

I guess Alchemy comes out on top since I tend to ignore any Alchemy cards that aren't Golem, University, or Alchemist; and then I tend to do well with those cards.  Golem plus Tunnel can be beautiful.  Meanwhile, guess I should resist buying Cornucopia for real.

[kn1tt3r]

Prosperity   2.00   1.41   -0.55%
Dominion   1.78   1.42   0.37%
Seaside   1.72   1.41   -0.69%
Intrigue   1.65   1.41   -0.78%
Alchemy   1.08   1.43   0.69%
Cornucopia   0.78   1.43   1.09%
Hinterlands   0.72   1.44   1.25%
Promotional   0.27   1.44   1.49%

Looks suprisingly balanced.

[toaster]

Out of curiosity, over what time period are those results calculated?  I know that as with the win rates with/without, this sort of comparison shows Hinterlands as a really bad set for me, but I suspect this is primarily because the quality of my opponents since Hinterlands came out is much higher than it was prior to that (both because I've gotten better and because I went from open matching to +-20 and now to +-15).

Maybe I'm actually really bad at Hinterlands, but I can't really tell without a comparison that only includes games from the last three months or so.

[Volkmar]

Prosperity   2.00   1.22   -1.24%
Dominion   1.68   1.29   4.85%
Seaside   1.63   1.20   -2.37%
Intrigue   1.59   1.23   0.05%
Alchemy   1.10   1.28   4.03%
Hinterlands   0.88   1.18   -4.02%
Cornucopia   0.85   1.24   0.44%
Promotional   0.28   1.09   -11.37%

I. Hate. Black. Market.

[^_^_^_^]

Dominion   2.16   0.95      -2.61%
Seaside   1.65   0.94      -3.45%
Hinterlands   1.51   1.06      8.94%
Prosperity   1.43   0.96      -1.55%
Intrigue   1.23   0.97      -0.03%
Cornucopia   0.91   1.05      7.89%
Alchemy   0.84   0.92      -5.81%
Promotional   0.27   0.90      -7.88%
Cornucopia and Hinterlands, my 2 favorite expansions. Intrigue surprises me as I HATE attack cards, even though I have learned from better players how to play them. Promotional makes sense because I often lost with governor and black market early on in my history with them, and I rarely see them.

[Dracandross]

Prosperity   1.83   1.10      -1.90%
Seaside   1.60   1.10      -1.67%
Dominion   1.56   1.17      5.07%
Hinterlands   1.54   1.11      -1.01%
Intrigue   1.48   1.11      -0.23%
Alchemy   1.00   1.11      -0.79%
Cornucopia   0.74   1.15      2.75%
Promotional   0.26   1.07      -4.36%

Seems like im base player

-D

[Voltaire]

Dominion 2.08 1.06  0.83%
Prosperity 1.82 1.02  -3.11%
Seaside 1.54 1.01  -4.15%
Intrigue 1.53 1.03  -2.36%
Hinterlands 1.08 1.14  7.83%
Alchemy 0.89 1.07  1.52%
Cornucopia 0.78 1.10  3.95%
Promotional 0.28 1.09  3.72%

Worst at Seaside? But I love duration cards!

Best at Hinterlands? Ok...not really my favorite set, but that's cool.