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[Swowl]

And Clemens, why is DatSwan missing from your list of potential scums?

I think scum helped getting the wagon started, and he voted after it was established.

I don't know why you think that, and the line you draw between 'getting a wagon started' and 'wagon is established' is highly arbitrary.

this is a fair enough opinion. faust - in your opinion if it takes 7 to lynch where is the "before/after" line drawn? your words make it seem as if it should NOT be arbitrary, so I assume you have a non-arbitrary approach?

There is no single number that works all the time. It's more the dynamics of how the wagon formed that need to be investigated. It also matters how big the alternative wagons are at the time.

so if it changes every game, then how would anyone ever deciding when a wagon "starts" be anything but arbitrary?

Well, when the sun rises changes every day and also depending on your location, but I've yet to hear someone call that arbitrary.

I mean we are talking nonsense at this point.. but I feel the need to point out that where/when the sun rises would be unarguable to all parties sitting on the same blanket (so to speak). As we are all on the same blanket, it is arbitrary to assume when the wagon starts because it (as you have stated) is arbitrary. but none of us could pass a sandwich and say "hey look at the sun rising over there" and have another argue with it.

unless someone is blind.

[Swowl]

And Clemens, why is DatSwan missing from your list of potential scums?

I think scum helped getting the wagon started, and he voted after it was established.

I don't know why you think that, and the line you draw between 'getting a wagon started' and 'wagon is established' is highly arbitrary.

this is a fair enough opinion. faust - in your opinion if it takes 7 to lynch where is the "before/after" line drawn? your words make it seem as if it should NOT be arbitrary, so I assume you have a non-arbitrary approach?

There is no single number that works all the time. It's more the dynamics of how the wagon formed that need to be investigated. It also matters how big the alternative wagons are at the time.

so if it changes every game, then how would anyone ever deciding when a wagon "starts" be anything but arbitrary?

Well, when the sun rises changes every day and also depending on your location, but I've yet to hear someone call that arbitrary.

I mean we are talking nonsense at this point.. but I feel the need to point out that where/when the sun rises would be unarguable to all parties sitting on the same blanket (so to speak). As we are all on the same blanket, it is arbitrary to assume when the wagon starts because it (as you have stated) is arbitrary. but none of us could pass a sandwich and say "hey look at the sun rising over there" and have another argue with it.

unless someone is blind.

or if this metaphor takes place on Tatooine

[faust]

And Clemens, why is DatSwan missing from your list of potential scums?

I think scum helped getting the wagon started, and he voted after it was established.

I don't know why you think that, and the line you draw between 'getting a wagon started' and 'wagon is established' is highly arbitrary.

this is a fair enough opinion. faust - in your opinion if it takes 7 to lynch where is the "before/after" line drawn? your words make it seem as if it should NOT be arbitrary, so I assume you have a non-arbitrary approach?

There is no single number that works all the time. It's more the dynamics of how the wagon formed that need to be investigated. It also matters how big the alternative wagons are at the time.

so if it changes every game, then how would anyone ever deciding when a wagon "starts" be anything but arbitrary?

Well, when the sun rises changes every day and also depending on your location, but I've yet to hear someone call that arbitrary.

I mean we are talking nonsense at this point.. but I feel the need to point out that where/when the sun rises would be unarguable to all parties sitting on the same blanket (so to speak). As we are all on the same blanket, it is arbitrary to assume when the wagon starts because it (as you have stated) is arbitrary. but none of us could pass a sandwich and say "hey look at the sun rising over there" and have another argue with it.

unless someone is blind.

So in this analogy everyone except me is blind

[iguanaiguana]

Wagon is started after the third vote,

Next.

[Cuzz]

This seems like a severely useless conversation.

[Teproc]

Indeed. Deadline is tomorrow, people. Is someone not voting ?

Oh, exactly one person is not voting. Let's go back to vote: Galz then.

[mcmcsalot]

Mcmc Vote count 1.2.1

Cuzz (2): DatSwan, faust, The_Wine_Merchant
Galzria (3): pingpongsam, Teproc, The_Wine_Merchant, faust, SirClemens
pingpongsam (2): mcmcsalot, Robz888
DatSwan (2): LaLight, SirClemens
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): LaLight
Sir Clemons (1): Cuzz
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana

not voting (3): iguanaiguana, Cuzz, Galzria

Cuzz (2): DatSwan, The_Wine_Merchant
Galzria (4): pingpongsam, Teproc, faust, SirClemens
pingpongsam (2): mcmcsalot, Robz888
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): LaLight
Sir Clemons (1): Cuzz
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana

not voting (1): Galzria

with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. day 1 ends saturday, february 17th at 17:00 forum time.

Doing another one of my own vote counts because I like to see how people have moved. (Underlined strike-through is a second vote moved)

Cuzz (2): DatSwan, The_Wine_Merchant
Galzria (4): pingpongsam, Teproc, faust, SirClemens, The_Wine_Merchant, Teproc
pingpongsam (2): mcmcsalot, Robz888
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): LaLight
Sir Clemons (1): Cuzz, faust, Teproc, iguanaiguana, DatSwan
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana, iguanaiguana
Teproc (0): LaLight

not voting (1): Galzria

Galzria (4): pingpongsam, SirClemens, The_Wine_Merchant, Teproc
pingpongsam (2): mcmcsalot, Robz888
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
Sir Clemons (3): Cuzz, faust, DatSwan
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
Teproc (1): LaLight

not voting (1): Galzria

[Robz888]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

[mcmcsalot]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

Get your butt back on PPS this instant, Datswan is absolutely not getting lynched if you think you won't be around at least stick somewhere one of your town reads is voting so you can be useful.

Or gimmie your Datswan case before I vote you

[faust]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

Get your butt back on PPS this instant, Datswan is absolutely not getting lynched if you think you won't be around at least stick somewhere one of your town reads is voting so you can be useful.

Or gimmie your Datswan case before I vote you

That is an odd sentiment. DatSwan had a bigger wagon today than PPS ever did IIRC, so it seems natural to go there.

[faust]

In fact I didn't find your original statement to be scummy but this doubling down of "my vote is just as lose and weak as anyone else's" seems like a scummy reaction to getting more heat than you expected. vote: PPS

Is there more of a case on PPS than this? Because this seems weak compared to other scummy things that happened.

[mcmcsalot]

Really would prefer to lynch PPS or Space over either of the current wagons.

The beginnings of my thoughts on pps. Terrible reason to vote Galz.

Again the pps argument for Galz being scum I think is bad. I don't think its scummy to not put yourself on your reads list (if I remember I think I put myself on more often as scum because I think about it). But I don't think its a scummy argument for pps to push.

Here he expains that its a weak vote and tries to compare it to the votes based around actions and reactions to iguana's claimy post.

Scumslips are barely a thing anyway and this is a seriously weak one at that.

I've already admitted it was weak. It's no weaker than iguana math and I'm not ripping into anyone over that.
I am, however, entirely the wrong person to try to tell scumslips barely exist seeing as most glaring examples are my own.

My case which centers around the fact that PPS felt scummy as he defended his vote in a very "jeez guys its a silly weak vote don't give me so much heat I'm just doing what everyone else is doing" kinda way.

Also I disagree wholeheartedly that your(PPS) vote on galz is at all of similar strength to people voting for people based on the iguana interactions. Your vote on galz is a super weak meta argument about a tiny potential scum slip that is super up to the person who's posting. I maybe agree its of similar streght to a vote for iguana for making the statement he made. But reading into what people said in reaction to the iguana statement and how others reacted to those statements and how the original statements were defended amidst multiple votes and small wagons forming...no way a vote for one of those people is the same as voting for someone who didn't include themselves in their own reads list.

In fact I didn't find your original statement to be scummy but this doubling down of "my vote is just as lose and weak as anyone else's" seems like a scummy reaction to getting more heat than you expected. vote: PPS

[mcmcsalot]

In fact I didn't find your original statement to be scummy but this doubling down of "my vote is just as lose and weak as anyone else's" seems like a scummy reaction to getting more heat than you expected. vote: PPS

Is there more of a case on PPS than this? Because this seems weak compared to other scummy things that happened.

Which are? I'm reviewing the clemons stuff now, and the galz stuff. Its two wagons of three people that you and teproc have bounced between.

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

Get your butt back on PPS this instant, Datswan is absolutely not getting lynched if you think you won't be around at least stick somewhere one of your town reads is voting so you can be useful.

Or gimmie your Datswan case before I vote you

That is an odd sentiment. DatSwan had a bigger wagon today than PPS ever did IIRC, so it seems natural to go there.

I'll have to check when datswan had a wagon because I haven't seen it. Me and Lalight were voting him at some point but I need to track the current clem and galz voters votes next.

[Robz888]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

Get your butt back on PPS this instant, Datswan is absolutely not getting lynched if you think you won't be around at least stick somewhere one of your town reads is voting so you can be useful.

Or gimmie your Datswan case before I vote you

Well it was a least partially based on the fact that I thought you were voting for DatSwan!

[mcmcsalot]

Galz voters:

PPS, for a scumslip
Teproc, for galz suggesting the least likely thing was scum defending scum!iguana.
TWM, sheeps teproc
Faust, because galz's immediate iguana is town was the scummiest and he didn't defend the wagon on himself well/at all
SirClem, says glaz townreads him for no reason indicating he knows his alignemnt, acknowledges not getting the galz case but sheeps the fact that he had no defense

Those are all the galz votes and they are garbage, if galz is scum the people not voting for which would likely include partners are Robz/Space/Lalight/mcmc and the movers Teproc/faust. Doubt Faust is a bussing partner. Doubt this is how a Galz/Robz scumteam plays day one. Could see scum in Space/Lalight. Especially Space due to this:

Hmm.. I don't think PPS is a strong D1 vote, because he is actually quite likely to make scumslips if he lives long enough. And I think I may still even be voting for him :-/

Catching up on more recent posts tells me I need to re-read Galz, but in the meantime I'll go with vote: robz, which is more gut than usual for me.

followed by

I've spent most of the last little while making a reads list:

Robz888 -- Yeah, I don't like his posts much. He supports Galz's awful logic, and then shrugs off being called on it, and doesn't do much else of content.

snip

pingpongsam -- Like I just said, he'll scumslip for us if we let him be for a while. Especially in a setup like this :-)

Galzria -- Baaad probability stuff. I agree interactions are good, but so are accurate priors. Makes him less good at probabilities, rather than more scummy. I don't think I find his text all that bad.

snip

I'm happy leaving my vote on Robz for now, but I don't have a high degree of confidence in anything right now becuase this is D1, and anemones are not known for their strong reads...

[mcmcsalot]

So that being said I think Space has been scummy, is a potential partner with both PPS who I think is scum and Galz who other people think is scum. I actually would be very happy with a Space lynch if people don't like my PPS case.

For what its worth I don't think Space and galz are partners, I think scum!PPS started the galz wagon and scum!space is staying off if possible while not arguing for town!Galz

[Cuzz]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

This is such anti-town garbage and seriously looks a lot like scum!Robz leaning a little too hard into the faust quote from his signature to try to seem like lackluster town!Robz.

[mcmcsalot]

Very unlikely I'll be around for deadline. I think I like Vote: DatSwan best. No real reason, I just think so many others are reading town.

This is such anti-town garbage and seriously looks a lot like scum!Robz leaning a little too hard into the faust quote from his signature to try to seem like lackluster town!Robz.

Agree but I actually have some pretty strong confidence to read him later and can also see this as actual lackluster town!robz.

[mcmcsalot]

Clem voters:

Cuzz -  pressure vote since he hadn't showed up
Faust -  says clems reads list allows him to jump on all wagons. (I disagree completely says cuzz and pps are slightly scummy, null reads TWM and Teproc, and gives a bad reason to vote for galz, townreads everyone else. He's new, not a great reads list but much less scummy than Space's)
Teproc -  doesn't like clems defense of the wagons are popular for a reason aka he agrees with the reasons people are voting them. (he does scumread the top three wagons Cuzz2, PPS2, Galz3 this can easily come from newbie scum or newbie town.)
Iguana - literally no reason given
Datswan - also no clue why just says K, best guess he doesn't like the galz wagon as its right after a vote count.

So also not great votes literally three of the votes have zero actual scumread reason.

[iguanaiguana]

Clem voters:

Cuzz -  pressure vote since he hadn't showed up
Faust -  says clems reads list allows him to jump on all wagons. (I disagree completely says cuzz and pps are slightly scummy, null reads TWM and Teproc, and gives a bad reason to vote for galz, townreads everyone else. He's new, not a great reads list but much less scummy than Space's)
Teproc -  doesn't like clems defense of the wagons are popular for a reason aka he agrees with the reasons people are voting them. (he does scumread the top three wagons Cuzz2, PPS2, Galz3 this can easily come from newbie scum or newbie town.)
Iguana - literally no reason given
Datswan - also no clue why just says K, best guess he doesn't like the galz wagon as its right after a vote count.

So also not great votes literally three of the votes have zero actual scumread reason.

I gave a reason. Just because I don't have time to write an essay for evertrhing I think and do doesn't mean I'm not playing thoughtfully.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

So that being said I think Space has been scummy, is a potential partner with both PPS who I think is scum and Galz who other people think is scum. I actually would be very happy with a Space lynch if people don't like my PPS case.

For what its worth I don't think Space and galz are partners, I think scum!PPS started the galz wagon and scum!space is staying off if possible while not arguing for town!Galz

I want to vote space butam afraid you would all it sleeping, and thus garbage despite previous stated suspicions by me on space.

But you know, maybe you could try and use words that would convince people? Or be passive aggressive about it like me? 

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Vote: space

[mcmcsalot]

Space Case

crimes against conditional probability

I'm in the process of catching up from having gotten a bit behind over the course of today. I have very little will to engage with the kind-of-negative argument about how to interpret Iguana's statement and various reactions to it. But I did enjoy the phrase from Cuzz that I'm quoting above :-)

Basically says I don't want to comment on the iguana stuff. Slight ATE but end result is deciding not to engage in discussion about what and who could be scum due to how they reacted to iguna's post.

The setup is a bit limiting in terms of allowing setup discussion, so those of us who love cold hard figures are at more of a disadvantage than with the more setuppy games.

I'd quite like to steer the conversation to something that's less tedious than people vaguely talking past each other or arguing for numbers vs reads. Unfortunately, the other interesting thing to pick up on in recent posts is the comment about scum-team probabilities, and I'm not going to make myself very popular for giving thoughts on that and not on current in-game players.

Though chances are that if we rank the posters in frequency order, the set that is least-present is probably not the scum team. That holds especially if I've already managed to slide all the way down the post count rankings :-P

Typical Space looking toward setup to lean on Day 1(no problems) but follows that up with another "I want to steer the conversation elsewhere" and "unfortunately what I want to talk about isn't super current reads related and more theoretical". Space has only been scum once before to my recollection, really feels like over explanation about lack of current reads/meta discussion even though that is normal from Space.

Hmm.. I don't think PPS is a strong D1 vote, because he is actually quite likely to make scumslips if he lives long enough. And I think I may still even be voting for him :-/

Catching up on more recent posts tells me I need to re-read Galz, but in the meantime I'll go with vote: robz, which is more gut than usual for me.

Really disliked this, its like a non defense of PPS. Saying he is likely to scumslip and give himself away is almost worse than saying someone scumslipped in the first place. Says they need to reread galz, indicates awareness of current votes and reads but a lack of committal or comment.

Reads List Snipped

Already mentioned this but scum reads robz for supporting galz awful logic (which they hedged later by saying galz logic wasn't indicative of scum). Gives lots of null or nullish reads, townreads me but hedges it on teprocs case of me being town (gotta keep those options open) and reitorates to let PPS be for awhile because he will scumslip.

Actually gonna end this with Vote: SpaceAnemone much better than my PPS case

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Stop sheeping me!

[faust]

In fact I didn't find your original statement to be scummy but this doubling down of "my vote is just as lose and weak as anyone else's" seems like a scummy reaction to getting more heat than you expected. vote: PPS

Is there more of a case on PPS than this? Because this seems weak compared to other scummy things that happened.

Which are? I'm reviewing the clemons stuff now, and the galz stuff. Its two wagons of three people that you and teproc have bounced between.

Well there's these, but also Cuzz and DatSwan have both acted scummier than PPS in my memory. Though I don't exactly recall what about DatSwan it was that I found scummy. Maybe I'm mixing something up.