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Author Topic: Random Stuff Part IV  (Read 12050 times)

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Simon Jester

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #325 on: November 07, 2018, 06:04:03 am »
0

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #326 on: November 07, 2018, 07:37:46 am »
0

But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter.

You're the only person I have heard of who doesn't use them interchangeably.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #327 on: November 07, 2018, 08:45:37 am »
0

But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter.

You're the only person I have heard of who doesn't use them interchangeably.

Make that two.

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #328 on: November 07, 2018, 10:30:47 am »
+1

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

Ok but how do you define luck? By your definition, winning the lottery isn't lucky either. So... what IS an example of luck? You still haven't defined what you mean by "luck", or given an example of something that involves "luck". It sounds kind of like you are saying that "luck" is just a whiny way of talking about variance.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #329 on: November 07, 2018, 11:26:45 am »
+4

I get a warm feeling when we discuss random chance in the Random Stuff thread.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #330 on: November 09, 2018, 10:21:24 am »
0

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

Ok but how do you define luck? By your definition, winning the lottery isn't lucky either. So... what IS an example of luck? You still haven't defined what you mean by "luck", or given an example of something that involves "luck". It sounds kind of like you are saying that "luck" is just a whiny way of talking about variance.

Well, the lottery isn't really a game of variance is in the same way as poker and Dominion is it? There is no way you can tamper the odds and you can not have any strategy at all. You just blindly go for it and if you win with those tiny odds it is indeed lucky as I see it. Betting is more in the borderline, I would say, since you are basically guessing what's going to happen. Then again, those who are able to make a living out of betting is merely exhausting the betting companies mistakes when setting the odds rather than actually playing the "game of betting". Still wouldn't mind to call winning big hits there lucky.

I guess I'm against the term because it's so often used as something that is actively working for or against you. "It's impossible to win against that luck" as my opponent stated. No it isn't. Next few turns you just might get that lucky outcome and my straightpaved way to victory might be turned to absolutely nothing. Luck has connotations of superstition, whilst variance is a term for gaming in my mind. It works for me, so I don't bother if I would be alone to use the distinction meaningfully. 

   

Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #331 on: November 09, 2018, 01:33:31 pm »
0

I guess I'm against the term because it's so often used as something that is actively working for or against you. "It's impossible to win against that luck" as my opponent stated.

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But then I think that people use "impossible" hyperbolically to express their frustration. I might see a huge traffic jam and say, "It's going to be impossible to get home," but that is not technically true, and I know better.
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Awaclus

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #332 on: November 09, 2018, 01:37:09 pm »
0

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #333 on: November 09, 2018, 03:36:08 pm »
0

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.

Well, yes, when you impose conditions, then you are able to declare certain scenarios as impossible.

But in general, it's not impossible to win with a bloated, inefficient deck. Just really improbable.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #334 on: November 09, 2018, 03:44:54 pm »
+1

I vaguely remember a game where my opponent had a bloated deck and kept discarding 5+ cards at a time with farming village and then redrawing good hands, in a way that seemed comically unlikely, and I think they won from a huge deficit. I wish I had kept the log.

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.

You have a text console, it's almost certainly theoretically possible for you to persuade them into resigning  :P
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #335 on: December 20, 2018, 11:19:14 am »
0

Gamers can be an oddly conservative bunch. They get into a specific routine, and any change to that is met with hostility. Many gamers are pretty adaptable, but the ones who aren't will often make their displeasure known.

My recent observation on this is how gamers generate a number from 1 to 100. If you don't already know this, it's been established since at least the '70s that you can generate this number with two ten-sided dice (d10). You declare a die as the tens digit and the other as the ones digit. Whatever you roll in the tens digit, you multiply by 10. Then you add the other die. But there are a couple of tricks that we use.

First, when rolling 1-100, the 10 on the die actually counts as a 0. Most d10s on the market are printed this way. It is actually a source of bemusement among new players when they roll the d10 and proclaim they got a 0 and not a 10. So, for example, a roll of 8 and 4 becomes 84. A roll of 0 and 6 becomes 06. And a roll of 2 and 0 becomes 20. This gives a range of 00 to 99, so any roll of 00 is counted as 100.

It's a bit convoluted, but it works. You have an even distribution of 1through 100.

Fast forward to around 1992 (the earliest I've heard someone claim he had one) and the introduction of the percentile dice. This is a pair of d10s, but one of them is numbered differently. Instead of 0, 1, 2, it is numbered with 00, 10, 20. The idea being that you no longer declare the tens digit. It's already established by this die. You roll a 20 and an 8, and it's 28. But the rule of 0 still applies, so 30 and 0 gave you 30, while 00 and 0 gave you 100. New players could especially be confused if they roll 10 and 0 and are told that is not indeed 100.

It occurred to me that you don't need to use that method with the percentile dice. Instead, you could take the dice at face value. First off, you have to acknowledge that the 0 on a d10 represents 10. In most games, that counts as a 10, but for 1-100, people tend to automatically think of it as 0. Of course, if the die is printed with a 0, that makes the shift easier. For a d10 that is printed with a 10, then adding the dice works pretty well.

And this is where the clash with traditional gamers happens. Because now I no longer view the dice as 40 and 0. Now I view them as 40 and 10, which is actually 50 and not 40. I don't have to mentally switch from 10 to 0 or from 00 to 100. I can roll as low as 00 and 1 (for 1) and as high as 90 and 10 (for 100). The vitriol is alarming, even by internet standards. It produces a range of 1 through 100 evenly distributed, but because it wasn't in a way that people first learned (and I have 30+ years of that habit in me), some people have taken offense.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #336 on: January 09, 2019, 06:21:26 am »
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My VLC player tends to have some trouble increasing the playback speed. Does someone know a player that can play videos at double speed without lagging?
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GendoIkari

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #337 on: January 09, 2019, 09:33:28 am »
+1

Gamers can be an oddly conservative bunch. They get into a specific routine, and any change to that is met with hostility. Many gamers are pretty adaptable, but the ones who aren't will often make their displeasure known.

My recent observation on this is how gamers generate a number from 1 to 100. If you don't already know this, it's been established since at least the '70s that you can generate this number with two ten-sided dice (d10). You declare a die as the tens digit and the other as the ones digit. Whatever you roll in the tens digit, you multiply by 10. Then you add the other die. But there are a couple of tricks that we use.

First, when rolling 1-100, the 10 on the die actually counts as a 0. Most d10s on the market are printed this way. It is actually a source of bemusement among new players when they roll the d10 and proclaim they got a 0 and not a 10. So, for example, a roll of 8 and 4 becomes 84. A roll of 0 and 6 becomes 06. And a roll of 2 and 0 becomes 20. This gives a range of 00 to 99, so any roll of 00 is counted as 100.

It's a bit convoluted, but it works. You have an even distribution of 1through 100.

Fast forward to around 1992 (the earliest I've heard someone claim he had one) and the introduction of the percentile dice. This is a pair of d10s, but one of them is numbered differently. Instead of 0, 1, 2, it is numbered with 00, 10, 20. The idea being that you no longer declare the tens digit. It's already established by this die. You roll a 20 and an 8, and it's 28. But the rule of 0 still applies, so 30 and 0 gave you 30, while 00 and 0 gave you 100. New players could especially be confused if they roll 10 and 0 and are told that is not indeed 100.

It occurred to me that you don't need to use that method with the percentile dice. Instead, you could take the dice at face value. First off, you have to acknowledge that the 0 on a d10 represents 10. In most games, that counts as a 10, but for 1-100, people tend to automatically think of it as 0. Of course, if the die is printed with a 0, that makes the shift easier. For a d10 that is printed with a 10, then adding the dice works pretty well.

And this is where the clash with traditional gamers happens. Because now I no longer view the dice as 40 and 0. Now I view them as 40 and 10, which is actually 50 and not 40. I don't have to mentally switch from 10 to 0 or from 00 to 100. I can roll as low as 00 and 1 (for 1) and as high as 90 and 10 (for 100). The vitriol is alarming, even by internet standards. It produces a range of 1 through 100 evenly distributed, but because it wasn't in a way that people first learned (and I have 30+ years of that habit in me), some people have taken offense.

I find this confusing, but perhaps you over-explained.

One issue is that the die says "0" on it, so you do have to mentally change that "0" to a "10" if you roll it, don't you?

But really, I think the only real issue is expectation... the method that will be used for generating the number needs to be clearly established before the die roll. If everyone watching you roll thinks that a roll of 30 and 0 should equal 30, and you roll it and declare that you rolled a 40, then of course people will cry fowl.
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Awaclus

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #338 on: January 09, 2019, 12:23:09 pm »
+1

My VLC player tends to have some trouble increasing the playback speed. Does someone know a player that can play videos at double speed without lagging?

That super depends on your specs, the videos that you're trying to play at double speed, and your codec settings, but in general, VLC is not a very good player for a multitude of reasons and you should be using either MPC-HC (which is easiest to get running by installing a codec pack such as the K-Lite Codec Pack) or mpv depending on your operating system.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #339 on: January 09, 2019, 01:24:58 pm »
+2

Gamers can be an oddly conservative bunch. They get into a specific routine, and any change to that is met with hostility. Many gamers are pretty adaptable, but the ones who aren't will often make their displeasure known.

My recent observation on this is how gamers generate a number from 1 to 100. If you don't already know this, it's been established since at least the '70s that you can generate this number with two ten-sided dice (d10). You declare a die as the tens digit and the other as the ones digit. Whatever you roll in the tens digit, you multiply by 10. Then you add the other die. But there are a couple of tricks that we use.

First, when rolling 1-100, the 10 on the die actually counts as a 0. Most d10s on the market are printed this way. It is actually a source of bemusement among new players when they roll the d10 and proclaim they got a 0 and not a 10. So, for example, a roll of 8 and 4 becomes 84. A roll of 0 and 6 becomes 06. And a roll of 2 and 0 becomes 20. This gives a range of 00 to 99, so any roll of 00 is counted as 100.

It's a bit convoluted, but it works. You have an even distribution of 1through 100.

Fast forward to around 1992 (the earliest I've heard someone claim he had one) and the introduction of the percentile dice. This is a pair of d10s, but one of them is numbered differently. Instead of 0, 1, 2, it is numbered with 00, 10, 20. The idea being that you no longer declare the tens digit. It's already established by this die. You roll a 20 and an 8, and it's 28. But the rule of 0 still applies, so 30 and 0 gave you 30, while 00 and 0 gave you 100. New players could especially be confused if they roll 10 and 0 and are told that is not indeed 100.

It occurred to me that you don't need to use that method with the percentile dice. Instead, you could take the dice at face value. First off, you have to acknowledge that the 0 on a d10 represents 10. In most games, that counts as a 10, but for 1-100, people tend to automatically think of it as 0. Of course, if the die is printed with a 0, that makes the shift easier. For a d10 that is printed with a 10, then adding the dice works pretty well.

And this is where the clash with traditional gamers happens. Because now I no longer view the dice as 40 and 0. Now I view them as 40 and 10, which is actually 50 and not 40. I don't have to mentally switch from 10 to 0 or from 00 to 100. I can roll as low as 00 and 1 (for 1) and as high as 90 and 10 (for 100). The vitriol is alarming, even by internet standards. It produces a range of 1 through 100 evenly distributed, but because it wasn't in a way that people first learned (and I have 30+ years of that habit in me), some people have taken offense.

I find this confusing, but perhaps you over-explained.

One issue is that the die says "0" on it, so you do have to mentally change that "0" to a "10" if you roll it, don't you?

But really, I think the only real issue is expectation... the method that will be used for generating the number needs to be clearly established before the die roll. If everyone watching you roll thinks that a roll of 30 and 0 should equal 30, and you roll it and declare that you rolled a 40, then of course people will cry fowl.

QWERTY keyboard vs. DVORAK keyboard seems like a more notorious example.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #340 on: January 10, 2019, 08:45:43 am »
0

I find this confusing, but perhaps you over-explained.

Possible. I tend to do that.

One issue is that the die says "0" on it, so you do have to mentally change that "0" to a "10" if you roll it, don't you?

But really, I think the only real issue is expectation... the method that will be used for generating the number needs to be clearly established before the die roll. If everyone watching you roll thinks that a roll of 30 and 0 should equal 30, and you roll it and declare that you rolled a 40, then of course people will cry fowl.

Which is why I'm making the switch to d10s that read from 1 to 10. Then if I need to roll percentile dice, then it obviously is not a 0.

The expectation is key here; you're right. If this ever comes up (I am not currently playing any games where percentile is important), then I'll declare that I'm adding the dice as I roll them.
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markusin

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #341 on: January 10, 2019, 11:43:09 am »
0

I find this confusing, but perhaps you over-explained.

Possible. I tend to do that.

One issue is that the die says "0" on it, so you do have to mentally change that "0" to a "10" if you roll it, don't you?

But really, I think the only real issue is expectation... the method that will be used for generating the number needs to be clearly established before the die roll. If everyone watching you roll thinks that a roll of 30 and 0 should equal 30, and you roll it and declare that you rolled a 40, then of course people will cry fowl.

Which is why I'm making the switch to d10s that read from 1 to 10. Then if I need to roll percentile dice, then it obviously is not a 0.

The expectation is key here; you're right. If this ever comes up (I am not currently playing any games where percentile is important), then I'll declare that I'm adding the dice as I roll them.

What would make most sense to me is one die that has 00, 10, 20, ...,90 and another that has 1,2, ..., 10, then just add them. This gives a range of 1-100 without any "Aces high or low" confusion on the 0 or 10.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 11:45:30 am by markusin »
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GendoIkari

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #342 on: January 10, 2019, 11:48:46 am »
0

I find this confusing, but perhaps you over-explained.

Possible. I tend to do that.

One issue is that the die says "0" on it, so you do have to mentally change that "0" to a "10" if you roll it, don't you?

But really, I think the only real issue is expectation... the method that will be used for generating the number needs to be clearly established before the die roll. If everyone watching you roll thinks that a roll of 30 and 0 should equal 30, and you roll it and declare that you rolled a 40, then of course people will cry fowl.

Which is why I'm making the switch to d10s that read from 1 to 10. Then if I need to roll percentile dice, then it obviously is not a 0.

The expectation is key here; you're right. If this ever comes up (I am not currently playing any games where percentile is important), then I'll declare that I'm adding the dice as I roll them.

What would make most sense to me is one die that has 00, 10, 20, ...,90 and another that has 1,2, ..., 10, then just add them. This gives a range of 1-100 without any "Aces high or low" confusion on the 0 or 10.

One issue is that while those dice may work great as a substitute for a d100, I'm not sure they make as much sense for any other situation where you need a d10. It's weird if one part of the set effectively is 0-9 while the other part is effectively 1-10.
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faust

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #343 on: January 10, 2019, 12:16:50 pm »
+2

A mean why not just have a range from 0-99?
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #344 on: January 10, 2019, 01:15:20 pm »
0

What would make most sense to me is one die that has 00, 10, 20, ...,90 and another that has 1,2, ..., 10, then just add them. This gives a range of 1-100 without any "Aces high or low" confusion on the 0 or 10.

That's exactly what I was saying. Gendo's right that I overexplain things. I just wanted to give people who didn't know what a d10 was an idea of what I'm getting at. I probably should've assumed everyone knew it and just explain when someone asks for it.

Just get rid of 0-9 altogether. I've only seen one RPG that requires a roll of 0-9. I've heard that there may be some war games that use 0-9, but I don't know them.

And 00-99 is a perfectly cromulent use of percentile. When you roll for a 27% chance, say, then only rolls 00-26 succeed. In essence, roll under the number and not under or equal that number. But it runs into the same issue of stating your intent so people don't call bullshit on you. But it is also consistent, and that is pleasing.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #345 on: January 10, 2019, 01:41:46 pm »
+2

Of course, you can also just get an actual d100.

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jonts26

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #346 on: January 10, 2019, 02:03:50 pm »
0

rand() % 100 + 1; 

easy.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #347 on: January 10, 2019, 02:14:00 pm »
+3

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #348 on: January 10, 2019, 03:16:51 pm »
0

I think I continue to use VLC out of years of accumulated spite from people telling me that VLC is a shitty media player.
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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #349 on: January 10, 2019, 05:12:37 pm »
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I've been using VLC for years and have generally been very satisfied. The design is simplistic, it hides its advanced options well, it's straight-forward to install, and it usually works. The apparent fact that it's rather inefficient -- playing stuff faster and introducing big subtitle delays both seem to bring it to its limits -- doesn't matter very often. But, well, in this case it does.
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