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Author Topic: Random Stuff Part IV  (Read 10651 times)

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Simon Jester

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #325 on: November 07, 2018, 06:04:03 am »
0

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

Awaclus

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #326 on: November 07, 2018, 07:37:46 am »
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But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter.

You're the only person I have heard of who doesn't use them interchangeably.
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Asper

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #327 on: November 07, 2018, 08:45:37 am »
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But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter.

You're the only person I have heard of who doesn't use them interchangeably.

Make that two.

GendoIkari

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #328 on: November 07, 2018, 10:30:47 am »
+1

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

Ok but how do you define luck? By your definition, winning the lottery isn't lucky either. So... what IS an example of luck? You still haven't defined what you mean by "luck", or given an example of something that involves "luck". It sounds kind of like you are saying that "luck" is just a whiny way of talking about variance.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #329 on: November 07, 2018, 11:26:45 am »
+4

I get a warm feeling when we discuss random chance in the Random Stuff thread.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #330 on: November 09, 2018, 10:21:24 am »
0

I'm not really sorry to tell you this there is actually an enormous amount of luck in dominion, and it can absolutely be correct to attribute single games to luck. Over many games, luck will equal out, but not over one game.

I disagree, although maybe only in the semantics. For me, variance means in practice that a better strategy won't win every time. It's expected to lose x amount of times naturally. To compare with poker, it's not lucky to beat AA with 2-7, it's  just hitting the variance. However, wouldyou do that in the final all-in hand in the headsup of a tournament that is something I would deem lucky.

A single game on Dominion Online is never something I would consider lucky, there is no real stake at risk at all. Even if something absurd happens you are merely just hitting the variance that is built in into the game.

In this case though, even if my game was in a league match I wouldn't consider myself lucky at all. to hit province four times in a row with my deck wasn't unusual at all and it annoyed me quite a lot to be scoulded at because of it.

Anyway, this might be just my pet peeve and that is quite alright. I most likely have this distinction between the terms to not go mad when my decks refuse to collaborate...

It's not clear to me from this what you mean when you think of "luck". What you describe as "variance" is what other people are calling "luck". In general, "contains luck" is another way of saying "contains randomness". I suppose you can call it "variance" as well, but that's still the same thing as either "randomness" or "luck".

Sure, but in the context of an opponent getting a rare outcome I think it' simply wrong to consider them "lucky". They really isn't, they is
just playing a game with variance. In experienced (and civil) poker players don't call each other lucky when they win far out hands. It wouldn't be possible to play the game without tilting constantly if you saw it any outer way that those things happens, constantly. Same in Dominion. Sure, if a random game is important to you tilt away, but it's silly to me. I simply would expect more of players that know the game on some higher level, and I would say that the term "luck" is something that blocks certain players to think clearly about the game. But if not and you use luck and variance interchangeable, this doesn't really matter. It was only a rant after all.   

Ok but how do you define luck? By your definition, winning the lottery isn't lucky either. So... what IS an example of luck? You still haven't defined what you mean by "luck", or given an example of something that involves "luck". It sounds kind of like you are saying that "luck" is just a whiny way of talking about variance.

Well, the lottery isn't really a game of variance is in the same way as poker and Dominion is it? There is no way you can tamper the odds and you can not have any strategy at all. You just blindly go for it and if you win with those tiny odds it is indeed lucky as I see it. Betting is more in the borderline, I would say, since you are basically guessing what's going to happen. Then again, those who are able to make a living out of betting is merely exhausting the betting companies mistakes when setting the odds rather than actually playing the "game of betting". Still wouldn't mind to call winning big hits there lucky.

I guess I'm against the term because it's so often used as something that is actively working for or against you. "It's impossible to win against that luck" as my opponent stated. No it isn't. Next few turns you just might get that lucky outcome and my straightpaved way to victory might be turned to absolutely nothing. Luck has connotations of superstition, whilst variance is a term for gaming in my mind. It works for me, so I don't bother if I would be alone to use the distinction meaningfully. 

   

Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #331 on: November 09, 2018, 01:33:31 pm »
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I guess I'm against the term because it's so often used as something that is actively working for or against you. "It's impossible to win against that luck" as my opponent stated.

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But then I think that people use "impossible" hyperbolically to express their frustration. I might see a huge traffic jam and say, "It's going to be impossible to get home," but that is not technically true, and I know better.
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Awaclus

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #332 on: November 09, 2018, 01:37:09 pm »
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Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #333 on: November 09, 2018, 03:36:08 pm »
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Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.

Well, yes, when you impose conditions, then you are able to declare certain scenarios as impossible.

But in general, it's not impossible to win with a bloated, inefficient deck. Just really improbable.
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silverspawn

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Re: Random Stuff Part IV
« Reply #334 on: November 09, 2018, 03:44:54 pm »
+1

I vaguely remember a game where my opponent had a bloated deck and kept discarding 5+ cards at a time with farming village and then redrawing good hands, in a way that seemed comically unlikely, and I think they won from a huge deficit. I wish I had kept the log.

Really, that's the other person's fault for using "impossible" incorrectly. What's impossible is buying a Gold in the first two turns of a base game. But when you have a crap-ton of curses and ruins, then it's not impossible to get the 8 coins for the final Province. It's just improbable.

But if you have a crap-ton of Curses and Ruins and you still hit the 8 coins for the final Province while your opponent keeps hitting $7 despite not having any Curses or Ruins, then he is absolutely correct that it's impossible to win against your shuffle luck.

You have a text console, it's almost certainly theoretically possible for you to persuade them into resigning  :P
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