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[Teproc]

@IDPTG: Any thoughts on the whole me/O/gkrieg thing (and on Galz while you're at it) ? What about Robe v mcmc ?

[chairs]

Posting to acknowledge my existence.

[Robz888]

i don't see why Ash would fake the drunk typing.

Well I don't either. But I really don't understand what he's doing, even by ash standards. He's had very little to say most of the game--his longest period of activity was completely incoherent. But he's clearly around, the second IDP says something about him, he appears to defend himself.

I have seen ash do weird and somewhat off-putting things on purpose as scum, though.

[gkrieg13]

I guess I do have to agree with Teproc that the  lynchpool for today needs to be {gkrieg, O, Teproc}, unless someone can think of another way faust could have died. Maybe add in Eevee  if scum used his one vig shot to double kill faust. Doubtful but theoretically possible.

This is scummy from EFHW.  trying to make the lynchpool smaller before we had even heard from O is bad.

[gkrieg13]

Mcmc, how would you describe the course of your chats with Robz?

I was enthusiastic to discuss reads. I did analyze his role and discuss the idea that because the setup allows for one no lynch (if 3 scum one no lynch keeps the same number of number of potential mislynches) it might be a good idea for town to burn robz potential 1-shot death proof. If town it’s a Good Power, if scum it’s an insanely strong Power that a fact. Add in what I said about no lynches, burning a town!robz 1sdp doesn’t change the number of potential mislynches we can do. That paranoid him reasonably so but as far as my read thoughts, he felt forced and overly concerned about my alignment. It came across to me as “I have to be wary of your alignment to seem like I don’t know you are town”. I am fully aware that could be because we have both taken some games off but truly it felt forced. That led to my scum read on him growing as the day went on.

The idea of burning his deathproof would obviously not be well-received by town!Robz.  He picked that role for a reason, and no one wants their role to be wasted, especially when it is just wasted for not a very good reason.  Scum also has a good reason to want town!Robz to not have his deathproof.  Robz can be a player with good reads and able to convince town that his reads are correct.

[gkrieg13]

I mean, yeah, maybe O will come in and say he's a roleblocker and he targeted me and maybe he's town and just did a dumb thing and I outed him and me for nothing. But also gkrieg is just scummy, so we can lynch him even if that happens.

How have I been scummy?  Is it still because of the ash thing?

That’s early d1 stuff, however your pushing of the Joseph wagon which is now a confirmed town makes your late day 1 play scummy.

Time to reread some things.

Why does that make me scummy?  Pushing a lynch that I feel strongly about says nothing about my alignment.  I don't bus that often, so I can understand that pushing a scum wagon D1 would give you a town read on me, but I often am wrong D1, and I often have opinions D1.  The fact that Joseph got lynched means we know I pushed a town wagon, but I know that people pushing my wagon were also pushing a town wagon, so should I find those people scummy?

[gkrieg13]

Scum!Teproc could be saying he was roleblocked to cover for not having protected faust.

So I’ve been mulling this idea over as well and my thoughts have rested on this. Teproc was not under much suspicion yesterday, many people finding him townie, scum!teproc gains from this a potential mislynch of town!gkrieg who could be inactive or even worse gkrieg could have taken an action that is provable (redirecting me for example). Scum!teproc would not be under any suspicion for not doctoring Faust because without him bringing this up likely no one would push for him to reveal if he is even active.

Scum!gkrieg has strong insentive to redirect town!teproc onto a vanilla scum who took no action last night. If teproc doctors it protect the vanilla scum from a potential vig shot and if he is tracking someone he sees nothing. The risk there is if town!teproc tracked someone who took an action and teproc became aware of that, gkrieg would be completely caught. I think here it’s just a case of risk assessment and it was more likely teproc doctored then tracked, and it’s unlikely he becomes aware his track target took an action.

The presence of O throws a wrench into all of this as it increases the chance both scum!teproc and scum!gkrieg do the things described above. For scum!teproc, if we lynch gkrieg who flips town he can tomorrow say well o must have blocked me. For scum!gkrieg similarly when town!teprocs action fails he can say it wasn’t me must have been O. On a balance note, I doubt O is both scum and active. A scum UB varies wildly in how much it can help or hurt scum (gaining a vig adds kill power, gaining a death proof adds literal lynch numbers vs. gaining a weak cop or tracker who need to be lying about results and potentially clearing townies)

All that being said combined with my scum read of gkrieg yesterday, combined with him being a primary proponent of the awful Joseph lynch, combined with robz who is a scum read of mine voting gkrieg only briefly yesterday (because of my great ability to catch scum!gkrieg in his words) and then ditching that vote to move to Joseph I am pretty happy leaving my vote on gkrieg.

This case on me is horrible.  It uses theoretical things (my night action), with the fact that I was behind a mislynch (not alignment indicative), with a vote from someone who is unconfirmed, with something that mcmc also did (vote Joseph to get a lynch through).  Scum are more likely to get on a mislynch at the end of the day instead of drive it for the entire day.

[gkrieg13]

I'm behind a page, but a thought just occured to me: I'm pretty suspicious of people who are pushing for lynches based on (potential) roles instead of reads.

This pretty well captures my thoughts.

[gkrieg13]

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...

Oh, I had misread this initially when I was following the thread before.  I thought he said that he didn't block Teproc.  The ellipses give me a slight scum read on O.

[gkrieg13]

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...

It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

Nah, faust was the main potential doctor.

But faust couldn't protect himself and was a very likely nk target. Teproc was the only dr who could protect faust.

The chance of a doctor actually saving someone N1 is incredibly low.

[gkrieg13]

I don't believe that all of {Joseph, O, Teproc, Mcmc} are PR's. And given Joseph is confirmed town, I believe there's at least one scum amongst the remainder there. I don't believe lynching Mcmc makes sense today, and of the two remaining I find Teproc more suspicious.

I'm assuming you mean if all 4 are town?

[gkrieg13]

vote: Galz

How is any of this unlikely ? There are only 2 PRs being claimed here (myself and O). I guess there's mcmc too, that's 3... how is that even close to RMM ? You including Joseph in this is ludicrous since Joseph has flipped... there being 4 PRs in a 13-player game (including O who may very well be scum claiming entirely truthfully) is nowhere near RMM or unbelievable. But you know that, so I can only assume this incredibly forced line of reasoning is not genuine because you're scum.

I agree with Teproc here, but I definitely don't think it makes galz scummy.  Galz's analysis was wrong, but not scummy wrong.  This feels like strong OMGUS to me.

[gkrieg13]

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

It's maybe unlikely there are so many PR's, but O blocking Teproc's doctor shot is not long odds at all. O knew he was roleblocker, so the chances of that are not relevant. He knew, I presume, that faust would be the most likely nk, so that's not long odds. Teproc was the only one with possible power to protect faust. His ascetic power was not that dangerous to town - who did O think Teproc would be targeting?

O brought up long odds as part of his defense. But it isn't really a defense in my mind at all. It makes me suspicious when people try to persuade me with illogical arguments.

O: Who did you think Teproc would target?

Galz: I followed your what ifs for the different combination of scum/town O/Teproc, but I'm wondering why you ended up on Teproc. The town!O/scum!Teproc combination didn't work, whereas all the scum!O scenarios seem plausible.

vote: O

I think you are generalizing things a little too much here.  Mainly that faust was the most likely night kill, and that Teproc would choose to doctor him.  Although the fact that it did actually happen that way means that it was more likely than I was giving it credit for.  But still, the likelihood of that all happening, and roleblocking the doctor that had an opportunity to doctor faust seems a little unlikely. If I had a 1-shot Doctor, I would certainly not use it N1.

[gkrieg13]

I don't agree, I think O's actions make lots of sense for town!O, right down to not understanding what ascetic does.

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did. I'm venturing a guess that the O/Teproc thing is a giant town on town debacle, with gkrieg's refusal to claim making sense for town!him as well (why me pointing this out made Teproc think I'm scum I don't quite understand, but it doesn't make me read Teproc as scum).

I don't really know what to think of Galz, alignment wise, I've got a big null read on him. He could be scum. I'm worried he's calling the me/mcmc situation correctly because he's trying to buddy me. On the other hand, maybe he's calling it right because he's town and he's reading things correctly. That's what I want it to be!

Still confident on my mcmc case. I could also lynch somewhere in the chairs or DatSwan department, those guys are lurking.

I could go mcmc.  Teproc's night actions don't make much sense for him as scum unless he really did the tracking instead of the doctoring and wanted to get PRs to claim so that he can kill them later.  But his OMGUS on galz was pretty scummy.  There has been lots of activity though, so i could definitely see scum in one of the lurkers.

[gkrieg13]

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

It's maybe unlikely there are so many PR's, but O blocking Teproc's doctor shot is not long odds at all. O knew he was roleblocker, so the chances of that are not relevant. He knew, I presume, that faust would be the most likely nk, so that's not long odds. Teproc was the only one with possible power to protect faust. His ascetic power was not that dangerous to town - who did O think Teproc would be targeting?

O brought up long odds as part of his defense. But it isn't really a defense in my mind at all. It makes me suspicious when people try to persuade me with illogical arguments.

O: Who did you think Teproc would target?

Galz: I followed your what ifs for the different combination of scum/town O/Teproc, but I'm wondering why you ended up on Teproc. The town!O/scum!Teproc combination didn't work, whereas all the scum!O scenarios seem plausible.

vote: O

You claim that town!O should have known this was a likely outcome. This assumes prior knowledge that

1) Faust is town (I scumread Faust)
2) Teproc is town (I scumread Teproc)
3) Teproc is a PR
4) Scum fear doctor over tracker (which is wrong, IMO) or that tracker is scum (oh hey look)
5) No other PR interrupts this flow

You assume that I should make two assumptions about alignment that completely contradict the reads I made yesterday.

You also assume I should default think all of this when I learned I was Roleblocker only the night of, in the middle of holiday season


Beyond that, there's some odd circular logic in what you're proposing. You claim it was obvious to me that Teproc would Doctor Faust, and that scum would NK Faust, and that I'm lying about the low odds in my mind. You then claim that implies I'm scum. Why would I run such a ridiculously stupid gambit, putting myself in the hotseat like that? If was as omniscient as you claim, it would be clear to me that blocking Teproc would either be useless or would be net harmful. There's loads of WIFOM in your argument in that I'm smart enough to make all the deductions which you have so brilliantly made after the fact (truly amazing deductive skills)... but not smart enough to keep myself out of the hotseat after making those deductions.


Actually I have another theory -- that you aren't considering the alignment assumptions you make in your analysis because you know their alignments.


P.S.:
my math major background cries at the bastardization of the meaning of the words "logical" and "illogical" that you perpetuate.

Kind of what I was trying to say earlier, but a little differently stated.

[gkrieg13]

vote: Galz

How is any of this unlikely ? There are only 2 PRs being claimed here (myself and O). I guess there's mcmc too, that's 3... how is that even close to RMM ? You including Joseph in this is ludicrous since Joseph has flipped... there being 4 PRs in a 13-player game (including O who may very well be scum claiming entirely truthfully) is nowhere near RMM or unbelievable. But you know that, so I can only assume this incredibly forced line of reasoning is not genuine because you're scum.

My point, as Eevee noted, is that it's highly unlikely that:

{Joseph, Teproc, O, Mcmc} are all PR's
&
{Joseph, Teproc, O, Faust!NK} all collided NIGHT 1
&
{Joseph, Teproc, O, Mcmc} are all town

----------

What it boils down to is that I don't believe that all 4 of you are both {PR, Town}. As the entire series of events surrounding Faust's kill are highly suspect {Joseph dies -> O Inherits PR -> O Blocks Teproc -> Teproc fails to Doctor Faust -> Scum kill Faust), I'm more inclined to lynch between you and O than Mcmc (who, at a very least, can have his PR confirmed). I scum read you more than O, but that's not to say I find O townie. If people would prefer I'm good with that lynch too.

Makes sense, disregard my previous statement to you

[gkrieg13]

Galz being frustrated scum would make me even more confident Teproc/O/gkrieg are all town, because that's something that could frustrate him, realizing all these townies have PRs. It undercuts my scum!mcmc read a bit though, because to be fair he would belong in that list too. Hmm.

The most unlikely thing of all is that you (Galz) would make this crappy an argument.

So, you know, lynch Galz, people.

Yes, people, do. And when Galz flips yet another town PR you can all realize what idiots you've been and go back and MAYBE salvage this game by lynching Teproc/O.

Or, you know, maybe you can realize that my arguments against the unlikely nature of ALL these players being town and PR's are because I myself am a town PR and this is a NORMAL game, so with 13 players alive there aren't freaking 5 Town PR's - and all this crap with Teproc and O is ridiculously unlikely to begin with!

Well, claiming waaaaaaaaaay too early is actually a very town!Galz thing to do. (I remember watching his insanely premature candidate claim in Lost Mafia.)

Scum Galz does the same thing. Don't artificially assign town points places they don't belong to make yourself seem more reasonable.

Was just about to come here and say this.  There is no reason for Galz not to claim as either alignment at this point.  It gives some credibility to his argument as either scum knowing that Teproc/O are both town, and as town thinking that Teproc/O has a scum in it.

[gkrieg13]

It seems like fancy play syndrome to me, for scum partners O and Teproc to do this.

I agree with this with respect to Galz's theory on Teproc/O team.

[gkrieg13]

I guess you'd say I used Tracker and somehow knew I got interferred with ? That assumes scum!me is using Tracker instead of the safe play (Ascetic kill), AND that I got to know my tracking was interferred with, which isn't that easy.

To be fair, you could've ascetic killed, then claimed to have doctored faust, but I agree with you that it isn't very likely.

[gkrieg13]

can we go back to more reasonable insane conspiracy theories, like my still yet to be disproven ashersky-robz lynch bait

I'm torn because I want to say under-the-radar-ash is scum!ash, but he's VLA-ish, so meh. Robz has been kinda townie today, too.

I'd be more inclined to lynch the people completely avoiding this whole conversation, like Swan or IDPTG.

Why don't you include chairs?

[gkrieg13]

Please carefully explain to me what I did last night if I'm scum, and why I did what I did today then.

You did nothing you goon. But town!You COULD have. Which made you claiming to have been unable to save Faust the perfect cover to try and reveal if Gkrieg is active. In the scenario where O is scum as well, it provides a backup claim to protect you if Gkrieg won't cooperate.

I think you are putting too much stock into getting the result of their oracle right.  Oracle isn't amazing, it is just OK.

[gkrieg13]

Vote: Galzria

pretty bizarre galzria i've seen today. I think he smelled blood in the water and now is panicking when it didn't pan out

Look everybody, I'm 2 for 2 on the scum buddies OMGUS'inh me. Quite entertaining.

I'm very confused why you are so worked up about all of this.

[gkrieg13]

Vote: Galzria

pretty bizarre galzria i've seen today. I think he smelled blood in the water and now is panicking when it didn't pan out

That might be.

Panicking over... what? Exactly? O being at 4 votes and the leading wagon is an interesting definition of "not panning out".

I wasn't even your primary lynch target. But despite being the leading wagon, I don't think I'm actually getting lynched today.

Panicking over the rejection of your rhetoric for what you thought would be an easy mislynch

Rejected by you, and Teproc... surprise! Robz too, but that's not surprising. Everybody else that's been active has more or less been in agreement. We just need more of those people.

I didn't get the feeling that everyone else that has been active has been in agreement.

[gkrieg13]

Vote: Galzria

pretty bizarre galzria i've seen today. I think he smelled blood in the water and now is panicking when it didn't pan out

That might be.

Panicking over... what? Exactly? O being at 4 votes and the leading wagon is an interesting definition of "not panning out".

I wasn't even your primary lynch target. But despite being the leading wagon, I don't think I'm actually getting lynched today.

Panicking over the rejection of your rhetoric for what you thought would be an easy mislynch

Rejected by you, and Teproc... surprise! Robz too, but that's not surprising. Everybody else that's been active has more or less been in agreement. We just need more of those people.

nobody else has been active, Galz. Except MCMC. Who doesn't appear to agree with you.

This assumes we're ignoring Ashersky's "activity" of course

That's weird. Pretty sure I recall EFHW, Eevee, Gkrieg, DatSwan and Ashersky all being on you or Teproc.

Eevee and Datswan and Gkrieg all have negative post counts

I was also already voting for Teproc before.

[gkrieg13]

Okay so caught up. I think agree with robz and o and teproc scum!teproc doesn’t do all of this just to learn about oracle. The only thing that works is scum!teproc A) tracked someone and failed so he knows he was blocked, or B) is scum with O. In A) scum!teproc Knows he was blocked but pretends somehow his doc failed and tries to put gkrieg while knowing o will eventually claim to have blocked him. In B) both teproc and o take way to much heat and I don’t believe they do it. O being lone scum makes no sense because he just wouldn’t say anything and let this play out. I don’t think he’s super afraid of tracker efhw.

Add in to all of this I thought teproc was towny day one I don’t think A is the case. I would much rather lynch robz who made the terrible case on me and was scummy yesterday. If robz flips scum I do think that paints galz in a scummy light. Also chairs has been like nowhere same with eevee.

What about the case he made on you was terrible?