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Author Topic: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (GAME OVER - EVIL PLAYERS WIN)  (Read 126312 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #675 on: January 03, 2018, 11:42:54 am »

I don't agree, I think O's actions make lots of sense for town!O, right down to not understanding what ascetic does.

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did. I'm venturing a guess that the O/Teproc thing is a giant town on town debacle, with gkrieg's refusal to claim making sense for town!him as well (why me pointing this out made Teproc think I'm scum I don't quite understand, but it doesn't make me read Teproc as scum).

I don't really know what to think of Galz, alignment wise, I've got a big null read on him. He could be scum. I'm worried he's calling the me/mcmc situation correctly because he's trying to buddy me. On the other hand, maybe he's calling it right because he's town and he's reading things correctly. That's what I want it to be!

Still confident on my mcmc case. I could also lynch somewhere in the chairs or DatSwan department, those guys are lurking.
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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #676 on: January 03, 2018, 11:45:36 am »

Oh, and IDP has done nothing to mitigate my Day 1 suspicion, and he may even be in "hard to lynch because he's scum" territory, but I guess his PR possibility works against wanting to lynch him.

Also I fully believe Arch would put like a bunch of PRs in this game, he only said there's at least one VT. I think it would be a little nuts to have fewer than 3 VTs, but beyond that... so yes, I think Galz is wrong about that. I think Arch likes crazy PR action, didn't he invent the DoMafia game?
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #677 on: January 03, 2018, 12:07:59 pm »

You pointing that Gkrieg's recation made more sense as town didn't make me think you were scum, it simply made me agree, and you were the other person I suspected the most. Make sense ?
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #678 on: January 03, 2018, 12:08:51 pm »

I agree the scum!O scenarios make sense enough on a PR level, but the way he went about it... less so. Scum!O can just hang back and let me push gkrieg all day/game by claiming not to have targeted me, seems like a much easier way to do things no ?
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Mafia play advice: If you are not content with the way the game is going, always assume that it is your fault.

Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #679 on: January 03, 2018, 12:17:28 pm »

You pointing that Gkrieg's recation made more sense as town didn't make me think you were scum, it simply made me agree, and you were the other person I suspected the most. Make sense ?

Yes, that makes sense, thank you.
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #680 on: January 03, 2018, 01:01:04 pm »

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

It's maybe unlikely there are so many PR's, but O blocking Teproc's doctor shot is not long odds at all. O knew he was roleblocker, so the chances of that are not relevant. He knew, I presume, that faust would be the most likely nk, so that's not long odds. Teproc was the only one with possible power to protect faust. His ascetic power was not that dangerous to town - who did O think Teproc would be targeting?

O brought up long odds as part of his defense. But it isn't really a defense in my mind at all. It makes me suspicious when people try to persuade me with illogical arguments.

O: Who did you think Teproc would target?

Galz: I followed your what ifs for the different combination of scum/town O/Teproc, but I'm wondering why you ended up on Teproc. The town!O/scum!Teproc combination didn't work, whereas all the scum!O scenarios seem plausible.

vote: O

You claim that town!O should have known this was a likely outcome. This assumes prior knowledge that

1) Faust is town (I scumread Faust)
2) Teproc is town (I scumread Teproc)
3) Teproc is a PR
4) Scum fear doctor over tracker (which is wrong, IMO) or that tracker is scum (oh hey look)
5) No other PR interrupts this flow

You assume that I should make two assumptions about alignment that completely contradict the reads I made yesterday.

You also assume I should default think all of this when I learned I was Roleblocker only the night of, in the middle of holiday season


Beyond that, there's some odd circular logic in what you're proposing. You claim it was obvious to me that Teproc would Doctor Faust, and that scum would NK Faust, and that I'm lying about the low odds in my mind. You then claim that implies I'm scum. Why would I run such a ridiculously stupid gambit, putting myself in the hotseat like that? If was as omniscient as you claim, it would be clear to me that blocking Teproc would either be useless or would be net harmful. There's loads of WIFOM in your argument in that I'm smart enough to make all the deductions which you have so brilliantly made after the fact (truly amazing deductive skills)... but not smart enough to keep myself out of the hotseat after making those deductions.


Actually I have another theory -- that you aren't considering the alignment assumptions you make in your analysis because you know their alignments.


P.S.:
my math major background cries at the bastardization of the meaning of the words "logical" and "illogical" that you perpetuate.
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #681 on: January 03, 2018, 01:08:46 pm »

oh, throw in another one:

After assuming Teprocs alignment, and then assuming that he is actually a PR, I should then assume that he choses the Doctor instead of the Tracker (more likely) or Ascetic (less likely) ability.

There is some magical levels of hindsight bias here.
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #682 on: January 03, 2018, 02:04:23 pm »

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did.

Why? I strongly disagree with EFHW that it was "all obvious N1 who's actions would target who". And there are plenty of reasonable (more so then them all being town, I would argue) scenarios for one (or more) of them to be scum.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #683 on: January 03, 2018, 02:06:55 pm »

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

It's maybe unlikely there are so many PR's, but O blocking Teproc's doctor shot is not long odds at all. O knew he was roleblocker, so the chances of that are not relevant. He knew, I presume, that faust would be the most likely nk, so that's not long odds. Teproc was the only one with possible power to protect faust. His ascetic power was not that dangerous to town - who did O think Teproc would be targeting?

O brought up long odds as part of his defense. But it isn't really a defense in my mind at all. It makes me suspicious when people try to persuade me with illogical arguments.

O: Who did you think Teproc would target?

Galz: I followed your what ifs for the different combination of scum/town O/Teproc, but I'm wondering why you ended up on Teproc. The town!O/scum!Teproc combination didn't work, whereas all the scum!O scenarios seem plausible.

vote: O

I could vote O as well. I ended on Teproc because at the end of it I have a bigger scum read on him PR related stuff aside, and Faust was also scum reading him which is worth something.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #684 on: January 03, 2018, 02:07:57 pm »

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

Yes.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #685 on: January 03, 2018, 02:14:13 pm »

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did.

Why? I strongly disagree with EFHW that it was "all obvious N1 who's actions would target who". And there are plenty of reasonable (more so then them all being town, I would argue) scenarios for one (or more) of them to be scum.

why is MCMC relevant here though?
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #686 on: January 03, 2018, 02:20:46 pm »

vote: Galz

How is any of this unlikely ? There are only 2 PRs being claimed here (myself and O). I guess there's mcmc too, that's 3... how is that even close to RMM ? You including Joseph in this is ludicrous since Joseph has flipped... there being 4 PRs in a 13-player game (including O who may very well be scum claiming entirely truthfully) is nowhere near RMM or unbelievable. But you know that, so I can only assume this incredibly forced line of reasoning is not genuine because you're scum.

My point, as Eevee noted, is that it's highly unlikely that:

{Joseph, Teproc, O, Mcmc} are all PR's
&
{Joseph, Teproc, O, Faust!NK} all collided NIGHT 1
&
{Joseph, Teproc, O, Mcmc} are all town

----------

What it boils down to is that I don't believe that all 4 of you are both {PR, Town}. As the entire series of events surrounding Faust's kill are highly suspect {Joseph dies -> O Inherits PR -> O Blocks Teproc -> Teproc fails to Doctor Faust -> Scum kill Faust), I'm more inclined to lynch between you and O than Mcmc (who, at a very least, can have his PR confirmed). I scum read you more than O, but that's not to say I find O townie. If people would prefer I'm good with that lynch too.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #687 on: January 03, 2018, 02:22:37 pm »

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did.

Why? I strongly disagree with EFHW that it was "all obvious N1 who's actions would target who". And there are plenty of reasonable (more so then them all being town, I would argue) scenarios for one (or more) of them to be scum.

why is MCMC relevant here though?

He's relevant simply to the argument of {Joseph, Mcmc, Teproc, O} all being both {Town, PR} in a 13 player normal game seems unlikely.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #688 on: January 03, 2018, 02:25:06 pm »

Galz's case on Teproc confuses the heck out of me. It seems pretty clear to me, bordering on inarguable, that gkrieg/Teproc/O/mcmc all have the powers they claim they had, and all did what they say they did.

Why? I strongly disagree with EFHW that it was "all obvious N1 who's actions would target who". And there are plenty of reasonable (more so then them all being town, I would argue) scenarios for one (or more) of them to be scum.

why is MCMC relevant here though?

He's relevant simply to the argument of {Joseph, Mcmc, Teproc, O} all being both {Town, PR} in a 13 player normal game seems unlikely.

the roles are pretty low impact, and I bet scum has at least 2, probs 3 PRs. Not sure I'd agree even if the result wasnt pointing a finger at me
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #689 on: January 03, 2018, 02:28:17 pm »

More importantly why is MCMC being able to confirm he's a... neighborizer... at all relevant here?

he can confirm his role but do you think I could be lying about being a roleblocker even if I was scum? Why would I? I consider myself mostly confirmed here too.
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #690 on: January 03, 2018, 02:32:05 pm »

You claim that town!O should have known this was a likely outcome. This assumes prior knowledge that

1) Faust is town (I scumread Faust)
2) Teproc is town (I scumread Teproc)
3) Teproc is a PR
4) Scum fear doctor over tracker (which is wrong, IMO) or that tracker is scum (oh hey look)
5) No other PR interrupts this flow

This is all a fine defense if you're town. But if you're scum (and Teproc Town):

1) Yes, you knew that.
2) Yes, you know that.
3) No, you didn't know that, but you had to block somebody.
4) You would be blocking Teproc anyway. What's to fear?
5) That's an ok argument. Aside from DatSwan (irrelevant) and Gkrieg, who could interrupt this chain?

You're right that from a town!O perspective this all doesn't add up. But it kinda does from a scum!O perspective.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #691 on: January 03, 2018, 02:36:27 pm »

You claim that town!O should have known this was a likely outcome. This assumes prior knowledge that

1) Faust is town (I scumread Faust)
2) Teproc is town (I scumread Teproc)
3) Teproc is a PR
4) Scum fear doctor over tracker (which is wrong, IMO) or that tracker is scum (oh hey look)
5) No other PR interrupts this flow

This is all a fine defense if you're town. But if you're scum (and Teproc Town):

1) Yes, you knew that.
2) Yes, you know that.
3) No, you didn't know that, but you had to block somebody.
4) You would be blocking Teproc anyway. What's to fear?
5) That's an ok argument. Aside from DatSwan (irrelevant) and Gkrieg, who could interrupt this chain?

You're right that from a town!O perspective this all doesn't add up. But it kinda does from a scum!O perspective.

Huh?

His argument is that since town!O wouldn't have roleblocked Teproc, since he should know all of this.
My argument is that his argument doesn't hold up that town!O should have known all of this. The conclusion being that it's not alignment indicative, not that it must be towny.

I'm not ""proving"" my towniness. I'm ""disproving"" a ""proof"" of my scuminess.
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #692 on: January 03, 2018, 02:37:04 pm »

This is such pseudo-statistical bullshit. I could say "well it's very unlikely that all of {any group of 6 players} are town, so we must lynch there !" There's nothing unlikely at all in what's being claimed here... if anything strikes you as unlikely go ahead and point it out, but juust putting random things in a bundle and saying "this is all unlikely taken together" is nonsensical.

PPE: 2
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #693 on: January 03, 2018, 02:38:25 pm »

Galz, you're missing that full Tracker is possible in the game (EFHW).
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #694 on: January 03, 2018, 02:39:41 pm »

More importantly why is MCMC being able to confirm he's a... neighborizer... at all relevant here?

he can confirm his role but do you think I could be lying about being a roleblocker even if I was scum? Why would I? I consider myself mostly confirmed here too.

If you're scum I think you're telling the truth. The play to kill one Doctor and RB another is decently strong as scum. It makes that whole interaction make sense. The only outlying piece is that Teproc also guessed correctly at Doctoring Faust, which isn't unreasonable.

Scum!O {PR}
Town!Teproc {PR}
Town!Joseph {PR}
??!Mcmc {PR}

Isn't all that farfetched. All 4 of you being town is. Dropping Mcmc (as he's irrelevant here), it's still a bit farfetched that all 3 of {O, Joseph, Teproc} are both {Town, PR} and collided with the scum NK N1, which has been my argument from the start. Not that you can't all be PR's. Just that it's highly unlikely that you're all both PR's AND town.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #695 on: January 03, 2018, 02:40:44 pm »

Galzria's being quite atypically sloppy today. He completely missed the mark on what my response meant and is doing weird stuff with MCMC's role confirmation on already dubious probability chains

PPE: now was with MCMC.
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #696 on: January 03, 2018, 02:41:18 pm »

You claim that town!O should have known this was a likely outcome. This assumes prior knowledge that

1) Faust is town (I scumread Faust)
2) Teproc is town (I scumread Teproc)
3) Teproc is a PR
4) Scum fear doctor over tracker (which is wrong, IMO) or that tracker is scum (oh hey look)
5) No other PR interrupts this flow

This is all a fine defense if you're town. But if you're scum (and Teproc Town):

1) Yes, you knew that.
2) Yes, you know that.
3) No, you didn't know that, but you had to block somebody.
4) You would be blocking Teproc anyway. What's to fear?
5) That's an ok argument. Aside from DatSwan (irrelevant) and Gkrieg, who could interrupt this chain?

You're right that from a town!O perspective this all doesn't add up. But it kinda does from a scum!O perspective.

Huh?

His argument is that since town!O wouldn't have roleblocked Teproc, since he should know all of this.
My argument is that his argument doesn't hold up that town!O should have known all of this. The conclusion being that it's not alignment indicative, not that it must be towny.

I'm not ""proving"" my towniness. I'm ""disproving"" a ""proof"" of my scuminess.

Sorry, taken out of context. I missed most of EFHW's argument on that.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #697 on: January 03, 2018, 02:43:03 pm »

More importantly why is MCMC being able to confirm he's a... neighborizer... at all relevant here?

he can confirm his role but do you think I could be lying about being a roleblocker even if I was scum? Why would I? I consider myself mostly confirmed here too.

If you're scum I think you're telling the truth. The play to kill one Doctor and RB another is decently strong as scum. It makes that whole interaction make sense. The only outlying piece is that Teproc also guessed correctly at Doctoring Faust, which isn't unreasonable.

Scum!O {PR}
Town!Teproc {PR}
Town!Joseph {PR}
??!Mcmc {PR}

Isn't all that farfetched. All 4 of you being town is. Dropping Mcmc (as he's irrelevant here), it's still a bit farfetched that all 3 of {O, Joseph, Teproc} are both {Town, PR} and collided with the scum NK N1, which has been my argument from the start. Not that you can't all be PR's. Just that it's highly unlikely that you're all both PR's AND town.

It's a 1/3600 chance that you posted with :41 seconds on the F.DS timer and that I posted with :44.

I'm pretty sure we're colluding IRL to post with those times.
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #698 on: January 03, 2018, 02:48:50 pm »

This is such pseudo-statistical bullshit. I could say "well it's very unlikely that all of {any group of 6 players} are town, so we must lynch there !" There's nothing unlikely at all in what's being claimed here... if anything strikes you as unlikely go ahead and point it out, but juust putting random things in a bundle and saying "this is all unlikely taken together" is nonsensical.

PPE: 2

You're completely disregarding the point of what makes it unlikely. It's not "some random grouping of players". It's a grouping that follows an unlikely series of events.

Your argument is that {Town!PR} Joseph got lynched, and {Town!PR} O inherited his power, then choose to block {Town!PR} Teproc, who just so happened to be attempting to Doctor Town!Faust, who scum were also killing.

THAT'S not a reasonable scenario of events on N1 where there are 12 people alive. The odds that all of you are both active PR's and town with no insight into the rest of that chain and yet it all falls together like that is ridiculous.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #699 on: January 03, 2018, 02:52:07 pm »

This is such pseudo-statistical bullshit. I could say "well it's very unlikely that all of {any group of 6 players} are town, so we must lynch there !" There's nothing unlikely at all in what's being claimed here... if anything strikes you as unlikely go ahead and point it out, but juust putting random things in a bundle and saying "this is all unlikely taken together" is nonsensical.

PPE: 2

You're completely disregarding the point of what makes it unlikely. It's not "some random grouping of players". It's a grouping that follows an unlikely series of events.

Your argument is that {Town!PR} Joseph got lynched, and {Town!PR} O inherited his power, then choose to block {Town!PR} Teproc, who just so happened to be attempting to Doctor Town!Faust, who scum were also killing.

THAT'S not a reasonable scenario of events on N1 where there are 12 people alive. The odds that all of you are both active PR's and town with no insight into the rest of that chain and yet it all falls together like that is ridiculous.

Can you make a statistical argument as to why any one of the possibilities with scum are actually more likely?

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