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Author Topic: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (GAME OVER - EVIL PLAYERS WIN)  (Read 126276 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #650 on: January 02, 2018, 02:42:29 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

Nah, faust was the main potential doctor.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #651 on: January 02, 2018, 02:43:34 pm »

O, can you explain exactly what you thought ascetic did?
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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #652 on: January 02, 2018, 02:47:07 pm »

Anyway, we know O is responsible for blocking Teproc. This means scum!gkrieg would have had no reason to avoid answering Teproc's question--I think scum!gkrieg is likely to have answered it right away, knowing he has nothing to hide. Way more likely IMO that town!gkrieg puts up the resistance we saw from him.

I also fully believe town!O could make this error. I mean, it's a terible thing, shame on you, but per Littlefinger I always try to imagine what's the worst thing for town that can happen, and it's usually that thing which happened.

Teproc seems likely to be town, though. Town, town, town, all three.
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #653 on: January 02, 2018, 02:50:42 pm »

literally what is says

"block all non killing actions"

for everyone
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #654 on: January 02, 2018, 03:14:14 pm »

Snipped
I wasn't scumreading you for the above analysis. It was several posts later when you said something like "well, I don't actually think we should do this until you tell us if you are 1-shot DP..." in a very leading way. That's when I started getting scum vibes from you. And then you later concede that if you were scum, that's exactly what you'd be doing!

Robz misconstruing here. I gave robz the same analysis I posted about number of mislynches and explained how in the long run as far as day one plans go, burning robz deathproof if active is probably net good for town. I then explained that I did not think it was worth blindly lynching robz solely based on the theory that if he’s active it’s a net positive play. So yes I hoped town robz if active saw the benefits to burning his dp and proving his towniness and if scum I’m gonna keep pushing his lynch regardless. I’m also not an idiot and understand if I was scum and robz town I would hopefully have put in as much pro town effort to come to the same conclusion and be trying to force robz to offer himself up on a platter.

Hence why day one my read on robz was not super strong, it was as he continued pandering and being worried about trusting me while also making statements like he should probably take my gkrieg read seriously because of how well I read him in a past game but then not really publicly supporting that case and ditching it to jump on the Joseph wagon at 5.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #655 on: January 02, 2018, 03:18:41 pm »

Oh an vote: robz

Also just think that if town scum is probably worried about robz, they would love a lynch, no one picked up on my robz vote day one at all.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #656 on: January 02, 2018, 03:19:39 pm »

So O misread Ascetic, which was the whole reason I thought town!O would definitely not roleblock me ?

Great. Just great. Read the freaking rules, people.
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #657 on: January 02, 2018, 03:20:31 pm »

Also, O could be lying... I don't know though, playing dumb doesn't seem like scum!O ? Could be wrong.

Oh well, I still like lynching gkrieg anyway.
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #658 on: January 02, 2018, 03:25:30 pm »

Anyway, we know O is responsible for blocking Teproc. This means scum!gkrieg would have had no reason to avoid answering Teproc's question--I think scum!gkrieg is likely to have answered it right away, knowing he has nothing to hide. Way more likely IMO that town!gkrieg puts up the resistance we saw from him.

That makes sense, loathe as I am to admit it.

Unfortunately for you, that means...

vote: Robz
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #659 on: January 02, 2018, 04:06:11 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

Nah, faust was the main potential doctor.
But faust couldn't protect himself and was a very likely nk target. Teproc was the only dr who could protect faust.
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #660 on: January 02, 2018, 04:19:30 pm »

Also, O could be lying... I don't know though, playing dumb doesn't seem like scum!O ? Could be wrong.

Oh well, I still like lynching gkrieg anyway.

as you were mason with me i'm pretty confident you can confirm not reading shit is part of my town MO  8)
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Archetype

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (N0)
« Reply #661 on: January 02, 2018, 09:24:22 pm »

Vote Count 2.2

Teproc (2): gkrieg13, DatSwan
O (1): ashersky
mcmcsalot (1): Robz888
Robz888 (3): chairs, mcmcsalot, Teproc

Not Voting (5): Galzria, O, Eevee, IDontPlayThisGame, EFHW
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 will end January 8th at 7:00 PM
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #662 on: January 02, 2018, 10:14:21 pm »

Is Galz vla?
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #663 on: January 02, 2018, 10:15:21 pm »

Also, O could be lying... I don't know though, playing dumb doesn't seem like scum!O ? Could be wrong.

Oh well, I still like lynching gkrieg anyway.

as you were mason with me i'm pretty confident you can confirm not reading shit is part of my town MO  8)
What's your scum!MO?
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #664 on: January 02, 2018, 10:58:48 pm »

Also, O could be lying... I don't know though, playing dumb doesn't seem like scum!O ? Could be wrong.

Oh well, I still like lynching gkrieg anyway.

as you were mason with me i'm pretty confident you can confirm not reading shit is part of my town MO  8)
What's your scum!MO?

it used to be similar, but I botched it pretty hard in that one scum game I had since returning. Generally came off as forced and unconvincing.
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #665 on: January 02, 2018, 10:58:59 pm »

How new is O? Would he be unaware that faust would be the likely nk target?

O, you haven't said why you thought Teproc was scum.
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #666 on: January 02, 2018, 11:02:52 pm »

How new is O? Would he be unaware that faust would be the likely nk target?

O, you haven't said why you thought Teproc was scum.

I'm tied for oldest around here -- check Mafia 1  :P

Teproc's near explanationless gkrieg vote felt convenient. I said as much here.

These arbitrary "eh I guess I could vote for Gkrieg" votes seem fishy. Don't see why people are townreading teproc
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Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #667 on: January 02, 2018, 11:51:48 pm »

Is Galz vla?

More that I'm enjoying my last few days off before work begins again on the 4th. :P

Sorry - I'm up to date on everything. I'll post thoughts and opinions tomorrow.

The odds that scum target Faust to kill, town!Teproc targets Faust to Doctor, and town!O targets Teproc to Roleblock seem pretty extreme. There's a lot of people in this game. And we must remember this IS classified as Normal, not Role Madness. So Joseph (PR) dies, passing his power to O (PR), who uses it on Teproc (PR), who targeted Faust. And in the midst of this, Mcmc and Robz have clearly claimed that Mcmc is a PR.

That's 4 PR's. And that all collides N1? Not impossible. But also reeeeeally not likely.

Starting at the back:

If O is scum and Teproc town:
- Then Teproc was blocked or redirected. Gkrieg could be in play here as a potential O partner, or O could've inherited Roleblocker. Killing one potential Doctor while blocking/redirecting another is a solid scum play.

If O is town and Teproc is scum:
- Then Teproc never intended (or couldn't) to try and save Faust. So why drag Gkrieg into this? Because he needed to know if the Oracle result got flipped. So he fake claimed the Doctor on Faust to try and get Gkrieg to spill beans. This points towards town!Gkrieg, as it's unlikely a play they're making together. The problem is... what if Gkrieg says he didn't redirect Teproc, and O claims to have not blocked anybody? That sets up a Teproc/O/Gkrieg lynch scenario because somebody must be lying. Which brings us to:

If O is scum AND Teproc is scum:
The play is to claim to have Doctored Faust (Teproc), trying to pull information from Gkrieg on if he's active or not. In the event Gkrieg refuses to respond or says he didn't redirect, O can come in and claim to have blocked Teproc. "I didn't know the roles" is an easy cover for O to make here to explain away a small detail.

And then there's Robz and Mcmc. Robz has read townie to me so far this game. Mcmc has not. I'm inclined to believe that Mcmc IS an active PR though, and unless he targeted Faust as well last night then there should be somebody else in game that can confirm that he is. It's quite possible they're both town. It's unlikely they're both scum. Right now I'm inclined to lynch neither of them.

From D1, I was town on Gkrieg, null-ish on O, and scummy on Teproc. Faust too found Teproc scummy, which says something as his reads are usually pretty good. I think with what's happened today I still prefer a vote: Teproc.

I don't believe that all of {Joseph, O, Teproc, Mcmc} are PR's. And given Joseph is confirmed town, I believe there's at least one scum amongst the remainder there. I don't believe lynching Mcmc makes sense today, and of the two remaining I find Teproc more suspicious.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #668 on: January 02, 2018, 11:52:29 pm »

Is Galz vla?
Sorry - I'm up to date on everything. I'll post thoughts and opinions tomorrow.

I'm bad at this lol.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

ashersky

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #669 on: January 03, 2018, 02:24:39 am »

Glad to see I was right about O.
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #670 on: January 03, 2018, 09:40:03 am »

vote: Galz

How is any of this unlikely ? There are only 2 PRs being claimed here (myself and O). I guess there's mcmc too, that's 3... how is that even close to RMM ? You including Joseph in this is ludicrous since Joseph has flipped... there being 4 PRs in a 13-player game (including O who may very well be scum claiming entirely truthfully) is nowhere near RMM or unbelievable. But you know that, so I can only assume this incredibly forced line of reasoning is not genuine because you're scum.
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Eevee

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #671 on: January 03, 2018, 10:13:21 am »

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #672 on: January 03, 2018, 10:57:10 am »

Glad to see I was right about O.

Sounds like you're posting to the speccy!  I know you're v/la, so maybe that's how it is right now.
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #673 on: January 03, 2018, 11:06:37 am »

I think the point is that it's pretty unlikely for all these pr's to interact like you (plural) claim they have. Much simpler explanation is that someone's lying.

It's maybe unlikely there are so many PR's, but O blocking Teproc's doctor shot is not long odds at all. O knew he was roleblocker, so the chances of that are not relevant. He knew, I presume, that faust would be the most likely nk, so that's not long odds. Teproc was the only one with possible power to protect faust. His ascetic power was not that dangerous to town - who did O think Teproc would be targeting?

O brought up long odds as part of his defense. But it isn't really a defense in my mind at all. It makes me suspicious when people try to persuade me with illogical arguments.

O: Who did you think Teproc would target?

Galz: I followed your what ifs for the different combination of scum/town O/Teproc, but I'm wondering why you ended up on Teproc. The town!O/scum!Teproc combination didn't work, whereas all the scum!O scenarios seem plausible.

vote: O
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Eevee

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #674 on: January 03, 2018, 11:19:30 am »

I'm feeling Vote: O as well. His actions make much more sense for scum.
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