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Author Topic: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (GAME OVER - EVIL PLAYERS WIN)  (Read 126349 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #625 on: January 02, 2018, 10:39:55 am »

Scum!Teproc could be saying he was roleblocked to cover for not having protected faust.

So I’ve been mulling this idea over as well and my thoughts have rested on this. Teproc was not under much suspicion yesterday, many people finding him townie, scum!teproc gains from this a potential mislynch of town!gkrieg who could be inactive or even worse gkrieg could have taken an action that is provable (redirecting me for example). Scum!teproc would not be under any suspicion for not doctoring Faust because without him bringing this up likely no one would push for him to reveal if he is even active.

Scum!gkrieg has strong insentive to redirect town!teproc onto a vanilla scum who took no action last night. If teproc doctors it protect the vanilla scum from a potential vig shot and if he is tracking someone he sees nothing. The risk there is if town!teproc tracked someone who took an action and teproc became aware of that, gkrieg would be completely caught. I think here it’s just a case of risk assessment and it was more likely teproc doctored then tracked, and it’s unlikely he becomes aware his track target took an action.

The presence of O throws a wrench into all of this as it increases the chance both scum!teproc and scum!gkrieg do the things described above. For scum!teproc, if we lynch gkrieg who flips town he can tomorrow say well o must have blocked me. For scum!gkrieg similarly when town!teprocs action fails he can say it wasn’t me must have been O. On a balance note, I doubt O is both scum and active. A scum UB varies wildly in how much it can help or hurt scum (gaining a vig adds kill power, gaining a death proof adds literal lynch numbers vs. gaining a weak cop or tracker who need to be lying about results and potentially clearing townies)

All that being said combined with my scum read of gkrieg yesterday, combined with him being a primary proponent of the awful Joseph lynch, combined with robz who is a scum read of mine voting gkrieg only briefly yesterday (because of my great ability to catch scum!gkrieg in his words) and then ditching that vote to move to Joseph I am pretty happy leaving my vote on gkrieg.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #626 on: January 02, 2018, 10:44:30 am »

Mcmc, how would you describe the course of your chats with Robz?

I was enthusiastic to discuss reads. I did analyze his role and discuss the idea that because the setup allows for one no lynch (if 3 scum one no lynch keeps the same number of number of potential mislynches) it might be a good idea for town to burn robz potential 1-shot death proof. If town it’s a Good Power, if scum it’s an insanely strong Power that a fact. Add in what I said about no lynches, burning a town!robz 1sdp doesn’t change the number of potential mislynches we can do. That paranoid him reasonably so but as far as my read thoughts, he felt forced and overly concerned about my alignment. It came across to me as “I have to be wary of your alignment to seem like I don’t know you are town”. I am fully aware that could be because we have both taken some games off but truly it felt forced. That led to my scum read on him growing as the day went on.
Why do you want to burn his deathproof? He will just get nk'd that night if he's town.  Is it to prevent possible scum!him from having it?

I think I see. You were trying to get town!Robz to sacrifice his power -- IF he has it --  for the cause and to prove he wasn't scum by agreeing to the plan. I can see why he was irked. What have you concluded from it?

What was there in what you said that he would need to know your alignment? Your alignment isn't really relevant to the value of the plan for town.

Why did you pick Robz? It was N0, before any claims. His being your brother creates complications for the rest of us in interpreting what the two of you report about the conversation.

Ppe: Long post from mcmc I didn't read yet.
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #627 on: January 02, 2018, 10:56:02 am »

Robz, can you while only paraphrasing demonstrate to us what you mean by continuously goading? How many times, how directly?

I also don't see why scum!mcmc would be so intensely interested in your deathproof,  or so blatant in probing about it.
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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #628 on: January 02, 2018, 11:05:02 am »

All that being said combined with my scum read of gkrieg yesterday, combined with him being a primary proponent of the awful Joseph lynch, combined with robz who is a scum read of mine voting gkrieg only briefly yesterday (because of my great ability to catch scum!gkrieg in his words) and then ditching that vote to move to Joseph I am pretty happy leaving my vote on gkrieg.

You also ditched gkrieg to move to Joseph, because that's what had to happen to get a lynch.

Robz, can you while only paraphrasing demonstrate to us what you mean by continuously goading? How many times, how directly?

I also don't see why scum!mcmc would be so intensely interested in your deathproof,  or so blatant in probing about it.

This is not really something I feel like doing, and is also a recipe for getting in to trouble. Not sure what the rules here are, I'd rather just make the entire thread publicly available, is that an option Arch?

Scum mcmc wants to know if I'm going to actually die if they take a shot/lynch me, I think that's pretty useful info. I'm not sure if "blatant" is the word I would use, it was more like he couldn't help himself. He just kept saying "if" you are Deathproof we should do this, you should think this, "if" you are Deathproof, in such rapid succession that it was almost like whatever I would say in response would give it away.
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Eevee

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #629 on: January 02, 2018, 12:02:04 pm »

I'm behind a page, but a thought just occured to me: I'm pretty suspicious of people who are pushing for lynches based on (potential) roles instead of reads.
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Teproc

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #630 on: January 02, 2018, 12:30:55 pm »

I'm behind a page, but a thought just occured to me: I'm pretty suspicious of people who are pushing for lynches based on (potential) roles instead of reads.

I'm pushing gkrieg for both reasons. And to answer him: no it's not about your ash defense gkrieg, it's about you generally being scummy in ways I can't really define. Yes, that is not helpful, but there you are.

I'm unsure about the mcmc v Robz thing. mcmc neighborizing Robz is what he'd do as either alignment I believe. I tend to think rolefishing is not something scum actually does all that much, but I do buy that town:Robz would be freaked out by it.
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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #631 on: January 02, 2018, 12:39:20 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #632 on: January 02, 2018, 12:44:03 pm »

I think Teproc is telling the truth? Not 100% though. He could have had a tracker shot blocked
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Eevee

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #633 on: January 02, 2018, 12:44:10 pm »

On the topic of Robz and mcmc, my opinion has reversed from yesterday. Robz is looking quite towny to me, mcmc increasingly more scummy (but these reads are tied to each other somewhat - getting to see the QT might change things).
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #634 on: January 02, 2018, 12:47:35 pm »

I'm missing a part while rereading -- did Robz!MCMC have conversations about the game, post setup + roles, IRL?. That's pretty bad form.

Not trying to accuse anything underhanded here -- I get the temptation. But it always leads to shitty outside read influences that should not be in the game
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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #635 on: January 02, 2018, 12:48:31 pm »

Ah --- MCMC is neighborizer
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #636 on: January 02, 2018, 01:01:02 pm »

I would be happy to make the qt public. My burning of robz 1-short dp as could be seen in the qt is 199% not based primarily on the fact that 1-shot dp is strong it has to do with the way the numbers and lynches work out.

With 14 players 11 town, 3 mafia assuming 1 mislynch and  1 nk.
D1 11/3, D2 9/3, D3 7/3, D4 5/3, a mislynch on D4 loses the game. 3 mislynches allowed.

My analysis began with what happens if we no lynch.
D1 11/3, D2 10/3, D3 8/3, D4, 6/3, D5 4/3, a mislynch in D5 loses the game. Still 3 mislynches allowed.

Then when analyzing everyone’s powers I realized burning robz 1-shot dp has the same effect as a no-lynch.

So if active scum!robz poses an EXTREME threat to town that is undeniable, if town robz is quite helpful but not as dangerous, it’s just a number game, adding an additional lynch required to end scum is much worse for town than one blocked night kill is good for town.

So In my mind the knowledge scum 1-shot deathproof robz does not exist may be worth it to town in exchange for burning a town 1-shot deathproof robz dp. Add in the fact that we had potential doctors and redirector and a potential cop and tracker an additional night of night actions could prove vastly more useful than a day of low activity and a necessity lynch of Joseph due to said low activity.

Had robz offered himself we would still have a town roleblocker in Joseph, we would know we are not dealing with a death proof scum, and we might still have Faust who was very active.

Now on top of all of that, never did I think oh because robz isn’t willing to burn his 1-shot dp which he might not even have he must be scum. Never, I understood his concern and I believe that would come across in our qt as well.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #637 on: January 02, 2018, 01:07:15 pm »

So on to the scum read I have in robz, it was not stronger then my read on gkrieg yesterday but it grew as the day went on. I agree that the game is about “being concerned about alignments” robz game off to me in the qt as overly hemming and hawing about man I’m just not sure I can trust you because you might be scum, I agree with what your saying but man you could just be scum trying to put me. To me I felt like I am aware you can’t trust me, I’m aware you have to take things I’m saying with a grain of salt, why do you feel the need to keep reminding me you can’t trust me. Overcompensating and wanting to make me absolutely sure he doesn’t know my alignment is how it came across.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #638 on: January 02, 2018, 01:09:04 pm »

Now that O has confirmed blocking teproc I don’t think this lets gkrieg off the hook for his scummines yesterday and his pushing of the Joseph wagon, but I think we should be back to not limiting the lynch pool to teproc/gkrieg/O and look into robz and galzria as well who alongside gkrieg created the Joseph wagon and has been very much less active then normal.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #639 on: January 02, 2018, 01:46:35 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...

I’m confused by your explanation of why you blocked teproc. Are you aware he has a 1shot doc, one shot track, and one shot ascetic. Also are you aware


where does the joat’s 1-Shot ascetic go in the resolution chain and is it targetable on someone or only self targeted?
It occurs in the Blocking phase of the action resolution (so after Sidekick but before Redirector). It is not a targeted action - the user simply 'becomes' Ascetic for that night a la Falco's ability.

Meaning teproc can doctor someone, track them, or make himself immune to non killing actions. So why again did you block him?

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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #640 on: January 02, 2018, 01:57:37 pm »

Well. I doubt mcmc and Robz are both scum. I don't really see how this benefits them if they are.

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #641 on: January 02, 2018, 01:58:46 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...

I’m confused by your explanation of why you blocked teproc. Are you aware he has a 1shot doc, one shot track, and one shot ascetic. Also are you aware


where does the joat’s 1-Shot ascetic go in the resolution chain and is it targetable on someone or only self targeted?
It occurs in the Blocking phase of the action resolution (so after Sidekick but before Redirector). It is not a targeted action - the user simply 'becomes' Ascetic for that night a la Falco's ability.

Meaning teproc can doctor someone, track them, or make himself immune to non killing actions. So why again did you block him?

it seems i misread ascetic's ability
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #642 on: January 02, 2018, 02:04:01 pm »

Quote
1-shot Ascetic (Block all non-killing actions)

i took this literally. did not read your clarification question
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #643 on: January 02, 2018, 02:11:03 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?
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Archetype

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #644 on: January 02, 2018, 02:11:39 pm »

This is not really something I feel like doing, and is also a recipe for getting in to trouble. Not sure what the rules here are, I'd rather just make the entire thread publicly available, is that an option Arch?
No
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #645 on: January 02, 2018, 02:18:20 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

Did I miss Faust's claim he wasn't a PR? He was a much more likely doctor.

its low odds that he 1) uses the shot and 2) hits the correct target

Teproc was the biggest PR scumread I had. Faust and Ashersky were also scumreads, but neither of their PRs make sense to block. the kill is probably? a 1/3 shot (doubtfully 1/4) even after hitting scum so I felt like blocking harmful PRs + possible scumkills was smarter than just scumkills

I did suggest I didn't find Teproc towny yesterday.
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EFHW

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #646 on: January 02, 2018, 02:19:29 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

The nk is the most anti-town ability in the game. 
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O

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #647 on: January 02, 2018, 02:21:55 pm »

I blocked Teproc. Blocking all non-killing actions seemed like the most anti-town ability in the game, and I didn't think redirector would have a high usage or success rate D1.

This is obviously a shitty outcome, assuming Teproc is telling the truth... pretty low odds that I block a successful doctor shot D1...
It's not really low odds. He was the only one with a potential doctor power. Did you have a scum read on him for some reason?

The nk is the most anti-town ability in the game.

Good thing I used my roleblock on one of my three scumreads then
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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #648 on: January 02, 2018, 02:40:28 pm »

I would be happy to make the qt public. My burning of robz 1-short dp as could be seen in the qt is 199% not based primarily on the fact that 1-shot dp is strong it has to do with the way the numbers and lynches work out.

With 14 players 11 town, 3 mafia assuming 1 mislynch and  1 nk.
D1 11/3, D2 9/3, D3 7/3, D4 5/3, a mislynch on D4 loses the game. 3 mislynches allowed.

My analysis began with what happens if we no lynch.
D1 11/3, D2 10/3, D3 8/3, D4, 6/3, D5 4/3, a mislynch in D5 loses the game. Still 3 mislynches allowed.

Then when analyzing everyone’s powers I realized burning robz 1-shot dp has the same effect as a no-lynch.

So if active scum!robz poses an EXTREME threat to town that is undeniable, if town robz is quite helpful but not as dangerous, it’s just a number game, adding an additional lynch required to end scum is much worse for town than one blocked night kill is good for town.

So In my mind the knowledge scum 1-shot deathproof robz does not exist may be worth it to town in exchange for burning a town 1-shot deathproof robz dp. Add in the fact that we had potential doctors and redirector and a potential cop and tracker an additional night of night actions could prove vastly more useful than a day of low activity and a necessity lynch of Joseph due to said low activity.

Had robz offered himself we would still have a town roleblocker in Joseph, we would know we are not dealing with a death proof scum, and we might still have Faust who was very active.

Now on top of all of that, never did I think oh because robz isn’t willing to burn his 1-shot dp which he might not even have he must be scum. Never, I understood his concern and I believe that would come across in our qt as well.

I wasn't scumreading you for the above analysis. It was several posts later when you said something like "well, I don't actually think we should do this until you tell us if you are 1-shot DP..." in a very leading way. That's when I started getting scum vibes from you. And then you later concede that if you were scum, that's exactly what you'd be doing!
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Robz888

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Re: M111: Super Smash Bros Melee (Day 2)
« Reply #649 on: January 02, 2018, 02:42:03 pm »

Now that O has confirmed blocking teproc I don’t think this lets gkrieg off the hook for his scummines yesterday and his pushing of the Joseph wagon, but I think we should be back to not limiting the lynch pool to teproc/gkrieg/O and look into robz and galzria as well who alongside gkrieg created the Joseph wagon and has been very much less active then normal.

Okay, so did you hammer Joseph so you could, to quote another player, setup a subsequent mislynch among the people you claim originated it?
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