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Author Topic: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village  (Read 100444 times)

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Gherald

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #250 on: October 28, 2017, 09:55:24 pm »
0

The same is true for Hexes, you need those same skills in order to perform well in games with Dooms.
Out of what you posted this is the comparison I don't agree with, because Hexes include so many low-probability random events that you lack agency in being able to prepare and respond to.

If your opponent bought the only Goons or the only curser from the Black Market, that's a persistent effect on how the next 10+ turns of the game will play out, and something you can work to adapt and counter in a many different potential ways, some of which you may find in future black market diving of your own. Lots of cool decision-making to be had.

Locusts or War ate something crucial and hard to replace? Probably time to just resign rather than hope the same happens to your opponent.
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Jeebus

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #251 on: October 28, 2017, 10:49:55 pm »
0

how to prepare for it in advance

I don't want to debate it further, but I just want to say that at least that claim can't be true. How can you prepare in advance for a possible Attack card from your opponent (which you can never get a copy of) out of the 60 cards in the BM deck? Those probabilities are way worse than for Hexes.

Jeebus

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #252 on: October 28, 2017, 10:54:47 pm »
0

The same is true for Hexes, you need those same skills in order to perform well in games with Dooms.
Out of what you posted this is the comparison I don't agree with, because Hexes include so many low-probability random events that you lack agency in being able to prepare and respond to.

That's the thing exactly. The same thing is true for the BM deck, only even more so.
(You can't (usually) work to counter a curser if you don't get a curser or a trasher.)

Gherald

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #253 on: October 28, 2017, 11:15:38 pm »
0

The same is true for Hexes, you need those same skills in order to perform well in games with Dooms.
Out of what you posted this is the comparison I don't agree with, because Hexes include so many low-probability random events that you lack agency in being able to prepare and respond to.
That's the thing exactly. The same thing is true for the BM deck, only even more so.
(You can't (usually) work to counter a curser if you don't get a curser or a trasher.)
Well if you don't get them then perhaps you can't, but you don't know that immediately. You have many chances and much more agency in for example playing BM more often yourself. With Hexes, if you get one of those low-probability events, it can literally decide the game right then and there barring an extraordinary split in your own and your opponent's shuffle luck. So it's not the same at all, and much less of an immediate concern in Black Market games.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #254 on: October 28, 2017, 11:53:39 pm »
+6

The turn 5 treasure map example makes me realize that there's also something here where attacks just feel different than non-attacks, but in a very artificial way. If you think of the object of Dominion to be to build a great deck that does the things you want it to do, then yes, attacks are fundamentally different than other things your opponent does.

But if you think of Dominion in terms of the actual object, to end the game with more points than your opponent, then there's no fundamental difference between your deck getting worse through bad luck, and an opponent's deck getting better through good luck. Both will hurt your chances of winning in a similar way. The Lucky Chancellor is a good example of this as well, though obviously much less likely than a quick lucky Treasure Map. If your opponent gets all the right draws at all the right times, then he's going to beat you in the same way he will if you get attacked in all the wrong ways at all the wrong times.

I think a lot of the perceived difference is just about feelings. One of the reasons Saboteur was unpopular... people don't want their decks to be trashed. People feel like they are getting hurt by an attack card being played; even though they are being hurt just as much by an opponent buying a Province before you when you're at the greening stage.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2017, 11:55:01 pm by GendoIkari »
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Donald X.

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #255 on: October 29, 2017, 12:05:21 am »
+2

That’s not really fair. Sorry to be criticizing your work, but I think I've done so constructively -- not repetitiously. I thought the comparison/contrast to how Swindler plays was pretty useful.
I don't mind you criticizing the cards; this is like the perfect place on the internet to do that and everything. You replied to my post that was replying to Jeebus about perceived swinginess in e.g. Black Market, and well I have no points to argue with you, so I'm not trying; I don't like to try to convince people that they're wrong not to like something I made; that is not what I am here for. The Swindler bit did not break new ground for me; I don't want to go through and compare attacks and what happens in each situation, as if to argue that therefore such and such conclusion about hexes; it's not what I want to do with my time, and I have already pointed out that the result is moot, that perception is what matters. For you I already failed the perception test, and if you're wrong about how swingy hexes are or what have you, it just doesn't change anything.

So. Okay, you replied to me and said stuff about the hexes; I acknowledge that post, I didn't just not see it. I do not have a conversation I am looking for there. Tell it to someone else and I won't feel the need to reply and say that.
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Gherald

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #256 on: October 29, 2017, 12:11:27 am »
0

Ah. Well though I was replying to you good sir, expanding on the Swindler comparison was more me thinking out loud in response to you mentioning it and other cards' swinginess, and for the benefit of anyone else interested in the comparison of how to handle the attack (vs. how to handle Doom cards). I didn't expect to be breaking any new ground for you -- far from it, I'd be a bit disappointed if anything I said was news to you.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #257 on: October 29, 2017, 12:16:05 am »
+1

The turn 5 treasure map example makes me realize that there's also something here where attacks just feel different than non-attacks, but in a very artificial way. If you think of the object of Dominion to be to build a great deck that does the things you want it to do, then yes, attacks are fundamentally different than other things your opponent does.

But if you think of Dominion in terms of the actual object, to end the game with more points than your opponent, then there's no fundamental difference between your deck getting worse through bad luck, and an opponent's deck getting better through good luck. Both will hurt your chances of winning in a similar way. The Lucky Chancellor is a good example of this as well, though obviously much less likely than a quick lucky Treasure Map. If your opponent gets all the right draws at all the right times, then he's going to beat you in the same way he will if you get attacked in all the wrong ways at all the wrong times.

I think a lot of the perceived difference is just about feelings. One of the reasons Saboteur was unpopular... people don't want their decks to be trashed. People feel like they are getting hurt by an attack card being played; even though they are being hurt just as much by an opponent buying a Province before you when you're at the greening stage.

Very keen observation; I think you’re 100% right.
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Donald X.

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #258 on: October 29, 2017, 02:57:27 am »
+3

Yes, I've heard that before, but now I think I can give a clear response. I will assume that it's true. And it makes sense, because Black Market gives you many options to choose from, 3 each time you play it (well, on average less than 3, since you can't always afford all 3). So it's comparable to the "+" tokens from Adventures: many options that will reward the player who chooses wisely. But the thing is, can't it also be the case that Black Market introduces a lot of randomness into the game?
What rrenaud measured was very direct and clear: how much does the presence of a card in a kingdom influence our ability to predict the winner based on estimates of player skill.

The intention was to consider how luck-based cards were, but of course it helplessly includes other things. Maybe a card favors the better player because bad players don't know to buy it. Maybe the strategy around a card is intricate and favors the better player while the card itself does random things.

We could subtract the bad players by redoing the math using only games between two good players. I'm interested in seeing the results but not in doing the work. It seems really unlikely to be different for Black Market though.

We can't subtract strategy from what the card does. All I can say is that, if the card being in a game favors the better player, it's reducing luck overall, even if individual plays of it are random.
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Awaclus

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #259 on: October 29, 2017, 07:15:25 am »
0

how to prepare for it in advance

I don't want to debate it further, but I just want to say that at least that claim can't be true. How can you prepare in advance for a possible Attack card from your opponent (which you can never get a copy of) out of the 60 cards in the BM deck? Those probabilities are way worse than for Hexes.

By not building a deck that concedes against any junking attack, for example. The reason why you won't prepare against Enchantress is not that you can't, it's that you realize the odds of your opponent getting it are not that great so it's not worth it. Of course, as GendoIkari pointed out, there's nothing special about Attack cards in particular — you also have to prepare for your opponent getting a +buy in a game where that matters, etc.
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Asper

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #260 on: October 29, 2017, 09:35:16 am »
+5

I think it's very much as Donald said: The question isn't which card is luck-dependent or not, it's how much people perceive it to be, or actually not even that, but how much people like a card. People like Jester but are scared of Lookout. They are slightly annoyed by the -1 Card token, but they hate to have to discard to Minion, even though it's hardly worse, and the cycling probably benefits them. It's not important whether they are objectively wrong. From a game designers perspective, you don't want people to dislike stuff, not even for wrong reasons. You try to estimate perception as much as you can with playtesting, but there's always a chance that you may not get representative results. Sadly, you can always find out people like it less than you thought, but the opposite might happen less often. Which makes sense, as you wouldn't put something out if it's not popular when testing it. One thing we know however is that attacks have a bad stand. I don't mind you getting free chocolate nearly as much as me losing my chocolate. Sure, from a game perspective it's the same, but real life isn't a zero sum game and so we don't perceive it the same emotionally. I think that's the reason why the randomness of Boons hasn't dominated this discussion, but Hexes have.
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Jeebus

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #261 on: October 29, 2017, 02:32:55 pm »
+3

I drew Locusts and hit my opponent's Royal Blacksmith. There was no replacement. The debt was not even paid off yet. That is way swingier than Swindler.

I don't see this as a flaw with the Hexes. Your opponent knows Locusts is 1 of 12 possible attacks. They should not have bought Royal Blacksmith.

I stopped reading there.

Why even reply then?

"Lol I don't even read opposing viewpoints. Isn't my ignorance cute you guys?"

Let me help you by rephrasing my post in a less snarky way with the same meaning:

As others have already pointed out, you just can't forego getting a strong card on the off-chance that it gets trashed. That's just a way to lose more games. Since your premise is so obviously flawed, there's no reason for me to address the rest of your post.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 04:21:21 pm by Jeebus »
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gloures

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #262 on: October 29, 2017, 03:32:48 pm »
+5

About the thing rrenaud measured, while I find that statistics incredibly interesting, I would make two considerations when interpreting it:

First is the skill difference already mentioned, I find no surprise at all that Goons is first there, because if one player can't properly build an engine and the other can, the second one should have an almost 100% win rate against the first, and a lot of games of Dominion (specially online) are played with two players on opposite sides of that skill threshold. If you take only games with people on the same side of side threshold (but with still a difference in skill) I believe the difference of expected win rate with Goons, against expected win rate without Goons should be much lower. Other cards like Chapel and Donate also should have similar behavior. (even though turn 5 Chapel Syndrome and an exacerbated player 1 advantage with Donate are totally a thing).

The second point, which I will illustrate with completely arbitrary percentages is as follows: Suppose 10% of Dominion games you have the luck factor being considerably favored towards you, 10% of games towards your opponent and 80% of games the luck factors somewhat evens out between the two players. Now suppose I play against Dan with a card like Village, for example, I might win maybe 50% of the games where luck favored me, 25% of games where luck evens out, and 1% of games where luck favored Dan, now if that card was Black Market or Tournament, I would suppose these percentages might look a lot more like this: I could win maybe 90% of games luck favored me, 10% of games with even luck and 0% of games where Dan got lucky.

So overall Dan should win more often against me in games where there are BM/Tournament than in games with Village, but I would still say that BM/Tournament are swingier cards, because they tend to make getting lucky matter more, it's just that they being somewhat hard cards to play properly leads to the better player winning more often on the vast majority of games where the luck factor just isn't that big.


Sorry for the made up percentages, they're just a means to express my idea, I have absolutely no idea if they would be even close to correct.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 03:34:49 pm by gloures »
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Tozar

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #263 on: October 29, 2017, 08:21:09 pm »
+2

Sorry for the made up percentages, they're just a means to express my idea, I have absolutely no idea if they would be even close to correct.

Shoot, I make up percentages to express ideas about 47% of the time.
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dedicateddan

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #264 on: October 30, 2017, 02:17:35 am »
+4

Hexes are cool. I like the idea of drawing a penalty from a fixed deck.

There are 12 hexes total. You can figure out which ones are left based on which ones have come out already.

I had a game recently where I needed an additional point to win and had to figure out if it was better to play Werewolf for cards or try to get a point off of a Hex.

There are a lot of things I don't fully understand about hexes. How many times do you cycle through the Hex deck in a typical game? How much additional alt-VP do they add to engines. Does the threat of War and Locusts change the way you build? I'm sure the community will figure all of this out with time, but for now there's a lot of ground to explore with hexes.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #265 on: October 30, 2017, 02:24:58 am »
+1

I had a game recently where I needed an additional point to win and had to figure out if it was better to play Werewolf for cards or try to get a point off of a Hex.

Ah, cool! I was just imagining this exact scenario in thinking about which hexes are a priority to track.
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Gherald

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #266 on: October 30, 2017, 02:50:43 am »
0

I think it's very much as Donald said: The question isn't which card is luck-dependent or not, it's how much people perceive it to be, or actually not even that, but how much people like a card. People like Jester but are scared of Lookout. They are slightly annoyed by the -1 Card token, but they hate to have to discard to Minion, even though it's hardly worse, and the cycling probably benefits them. It's not important whether they are objectively wrong. From a game designers perspective, you don't want people to dislike stuff, not even for wrong reasons. You try to estimate perception as much as you can with playtesting, but there's always a chance that you may not get representative results. Sadly, you can always find out people like it less than you thought, but the opposite might happen less often. Which makes sense, as you wouldn't put something out if it's not popular when testing it. One thing we know however is that attacks have a bad stand. I don't mind you getting free chocolate nearly as much as me losing my chocolate. Sure, from a game perspective it's the same, but real life isn't a zero sum game and so we don't perceive it the same emotionally. I think that's the reason why the randomness of Boons hasn't dominated this discussion, but Hexes have.
So there's been a lot of talk here about perception here, and I get that its a super important consideration -- especially when it comes to getting people to like and enjoy playing a game or particular elements of that game. I get that perception is why people didn't like Saboteur, or don't like Minion, and (I'm assuming) is related to why some number don't like Hexes.

But perception has nothing to do with why I don't like hexes, so I just want to be clear about how I evaluate them and why. It's subjective to the things I value, but it's not about how I "perceive them emotionally" or anything like that.

You raise boons as a comparison -- boons are more straightforward to deal with. Once you're used to quickly evaluating whether you should discard that treasure for that $4 card or discard 3 for a gold, etc, their randomness becomes less annoying, more tractable. It's a problem that can be played around in the way shuffle luck is played around. Just some random powerups inserted here and there. We get it.

Hexes are not so innocuous. They interfere with what you're trying to do in quite random ways, ways that are very difficult to foresee or ameliorate without slowing down other parts of your deck economy. Very, very often (not always, depends on the board) all you can do is hope the really unfortunate combinations don't happen to you, and try to play Doom cards more often than your opponent so that those same really unfortunate things are more likely to happen to them than to you.

It's a spigot of destructive randomness that is a much less tractable problem than Swindler or Saboteur was. When I see/saw those on the boards, I know what's coming and how to deal with it.

Now either you value having this destructive randomness as an addition to your games, or you don't. I don't; it goes against and takes away from my enjoyment of everything else I like and value about Dominion.
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Asper

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #267 on: October 30, 2017, 08:34:50 am »
+2

I just realized that Locusts don't give you a Curse when they trash a Curse. That's... double-random?
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silverspawn

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #268 on: October 30, 2017, 08:35:56 am »
0

I just realized that Locusts don't give you a Curse when they trash a Curse. That's... double-random?

Yeah that's super weird.
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Asper

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #269 on: October 30, 2017, 09:08:49 am »
0

Hexes are not so innocuous. They interfere with what you're trying to do in quite random ways, ways that are very difficult to foresee or ameliorate without slowing down other parts of your deck economy. Very, very often (not always, depends on the board) all you can do is hope the really unfortunate combinations don't happen to you, and try to play Doom cards more often than your opponent so that those same really unfortunate things are more likely to happen to them than to you.

Hum. I see the point you make there. Few of the Boons are so useful to a strategy that I really need to be the one who gets them (in fact, I think only Will 'o Wisp comes closes to being strategy-relevant, and you won't ever have enough of them to be as important either way). However, making sure you're not hit by Locusts, War or Envy/Deluded is something that can be very important. So you blast out Doom cards as much as you can to raise your chances. And of course you might still fail. I still feel Werewolf is the only one that makes this come up as extremely, though. Well, for now.
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Jeebus

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #270 on: October 30, 2017, 09:25:27 am »
+1

They are slightly annoyed by the -1 Card token, but they hate to have to discard to Minion, even though it's hardly worse, and the cycling probably benefits them.

Not sure this goes against your wider point, but surely the randomness of a Minion attack is nothing like the -1 Card token. Yes, the effect on your hand is the same. But with Minion you can skip some of your good cards for the shuffle, or skip a hand that would have stalled you. This is the main random element, which is not present at all with the -1 Card token. (Not that I mind Minion that much.)

Asper

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #271 on: October 30, 2017, 09:31:27 am »
+2

They are slightly annoyed by the -1 Card token, but they hate to have to discard to Minion, even though it's hardly worse, and the cycling probably benefits them.

Not sure this goes against your wider point, but surely the randomness of a Minion attack is nothing like the -1 Card token. Yes, the effect on your hand is the same. But with Minion you can skip some of your good cards for the shuffle, or skip a hand that would have stalled you. This is the main random element, which is not present at all with the -1 Card token. (Not that I mind Minion that much.)

My point was that Minion is annoying because you already thought about what you had in hand and made plans, and now that's all for nothing. But you have a point that it's more random than the -1 card token.
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SuperHans

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #272 on: October 30, 2017, 01:22:46 pm »
0

I always preface this by saying I'm low on the totem pole for skilled players, but I seem to be having a somewhat different (perhaps more positive) experience with the Doom cards than others.

For at least the cards shown, hexing often seems cleverly mitigated. Leprechaun hexes yourself and can be avoided. Cursed Village also hexes yourself and only when gained. Werewolf hexing cannot be throned (based on the cards we know). Also, a lot of times the draw was the better option. Vampire cannot be throned and it alternates with Bats making it hard to send out a barrage of hexes.

Skulk, however, can quickly become degenerate in some kingdoms because it can be throned. Then again, a lot of kingdoms with throne variants can become degenerate with good attacks. At least it is terminal.

Overall, hexes aren't offensive to me. For the most part, I've enjoyed the kingdoms with them (Werewolf is great). It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the cards turn out, but it seems that intentional efforts were made with the doom cards shown to reduce how degenerate they can be in most kingdoms (compared with, e.g., Cultist, Mountebank, Swindler).

Only time will tell.
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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #273 on: October 30, 2017, 01:27:06 pm »
+2

Throneability isn't a great way to judge a card's strength because most of the time there are no throne variants. Werewolf is definitely a stronger Hexer than Skulk because it's non-terminal.
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SuperHans

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Re: Previews #4: Werewolf, Skulk, Cursed Village
« Reply #274 on: October 30, 2017, 01:36:54 pm »
0

Throneability isn't a great way to judge a card's strength because most of the time there are no throne variants. Werewolf is definitely a stronger Hexer than Skulk because it's non-terminal.
Completely agreed. I brought up throneability mostly in connection with how degenerate can the card be at it's worst.
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