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Author Topic: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Game over!)  (Read 227520 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2025 on: December 14, 2017, 06:34:48 pm »

Seems pointless in light of iguana's claim.  But sure:

schadd: Yellow
gkrieg: Yellow
Awaclus: Yellow
EFHW: Yellow
iguana: Yellow
Jake: White
Space: Red
Galz: Red
Swan: Red
e: Red
ash: Red
silver: Red
Haddock: Red
Dylan: Red
chairs: Red
WW: Red (but Framed Yellow on N3)

This gives (7,7) for N1, but (6,7) for N2, (7,2) for N3 (with WW reading Yellow for that night only), and (6,0) for N4.

PPE: interesting stuff from iguana to look at :-)

What?

No.
I mean. Without even checking it's obvious that it doesn't give (6,0) N4
Yeah your numbers here are wrong across the board.
My solution definitely gives (7,7) for N1,
(7,5) for N2
and
(5,1) for N4. 

So is consistent with those nights.

It's not the WW-Framed one though.  Sorry.  This is the solution I had figured out for if gkrieg was a 1-shot Godfather on N3.  Then N3 is correct.  Not with the Framing thing.  Sorry.

I still think we have a disagreement here, though the fact I'd missed EFHW as Yellow in your pattern meant that the numbers were a bit wrong. Of course, now I don't think it matches for N1!

Your proposed solution was:
Red (10): Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, WW, silver
White (1): Jake
Yellow (5): EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, Iguana
Blue (0): NONE

N1 puzzle results was:
Red (10): EFHW, Haddock, gkrieg, schadd, e, Jake, Dylan, Iguana, WW, silver
White (1): Space
Yellow (3): Ash, Awaclus, chairs
Blue (2): DatSwan, Galz

Giving
RCRP = {Haddock, e, Dylan WW, Silver, Awaclus} (5 red, one yellow) = 6
RCWP = 5 other red, 2 other yellow, 1 white = 8

Just to clarify how I get the RCWP score:
The 5 for red comes from the min number of reds guessed between the two, minus the number of reds that are part of the RCRP count, so that's min(10,10)-5 = 5.
The 2 for the yellows comes from min(5,3)-1 = 2 for similar reasons.
The 1 for the whites is  min(1,1)-0 = 1, but it's also intuitively obvious because both patterns have only one white, and they're on different people.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2026 on: December 14, 2017, 06:53:06 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here

Can you respond to my case that she is town?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2027 on: December 14, 2017, 06:59:46 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here

Can you respond to my case that she is town?
Wouldn’t scum already know that awaclus died?  If so then they could use the death for town cred.
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2028 on: December 14, 2017, 07:04:18 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here

Can you respond to my case that she is town?
Wouldn’t scum already know that awaclus died?  If so then they could use the death for town cred.

I don't think they would know for sure that DatSwan had the amulet in his possession and assume a mod error, no.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2029 on: December 14, 2017, 10:05:49 pm »

Reposting with better formatting and listing of proposed teams:

If yellow=scum and there has been framing I think I now get the same results as iguana and Dylan is scum.             

TOWN (red): e, EFHW, Haddock, DatSwan, silver, chairs, ashersky, Galzria, Jake, WW, Space
SCUM (yellow):  Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, Dylan
3rd Party (blue and blue/white): iguana, PPS   
                  
N1: 
7 RR:  e  EFHW  Haddock  Awa  silver  WW  Dylan/Jake
7 RW:  ash  iguana  schadd    Dat/Galz  chairs  Dylan/Jake   
2 WC:  Dat/Galz     Space
            
If town framed, chairs is yellow because 2 of {chairs, dylan, jake} would be RR.
If iguana framed, no change to results.
                     
N2:   
7 RR:   e  Haddock  Galz  silver  ash  Jake  chairs
5 RW:   EFHW  gkrieg  DatS  awa  WW
2 WC:   iguana (framed)  Dylan               
                     
N3:   
7 RR:   e  EFHW    Haddock  Iguana  DatS  silver  chairs
3 RW:   Galz  gkrieg  awa         
3 WC:   Jake  WW  Dylan    There is an extra red; two blues should be yellow
                     
N4:   
5 RR:   e  EFHW  Haddock  chairs  Jake (framed)
1 RW:   Dylan            
1 WC:   iguana
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EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2030 on: December 14, 2017, 10:08:36 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here

Can you respond to my case that she is town?
Wouldn’t scum already know that awaclus died?  If so then they could use the death for town cred.
I also saved iguana's life by offering to sacrifice myself instead. And I wouldn't vote you or WW. And I'll send you a note right now.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2031 on: December 14, 2017, 10:12:24 pm »

Also, my role stipulates that another player from walking dead is highly likely to exist - in case we needed one more reason to trust EFHW.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2032 on: December 15, 2017, 05:34:13 am »

Yeah this looks right. Weird, I definitely double checked it. Apparently I can't count to 7.
Not relevant anyway, this solution is impossible because of iguanas claim.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2033 on: December 15, 2017, 05:41:07 am »

EFHW, your solution looks reasonable and I will double check it. But I have no idea what you mean by:

 
If town framed, chairs is yellow because 2 of {chairs, dylan, jake} would be RR.
If iguana framed, no change to results.
               

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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2034 on: December 15, 2017, 05:43:52 am »

With my results clearing chairs N1 (even if he was godfather it can't work out unless someone was also framed n1.) and Efhw being clearly town for other reasons, I think we have to just vote for Dylan.

Theoretically Jake could be scum, but only if one of dylan/chairs/Efhw is as well anyway.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2035 on: December 15, 2017, 07:48:17 am »

EFHW, your solution looks reasonable and I will double check it. But I have no idea what you mean by:

 
If town framed, chairs is yellow because 2 of {chairs, dylan, jake} would be RR.
If iguana framed, no change to results.
               
Just keeping track of possible effects of framing. The rest worked with chairs as town, so I don't think a town player was framed N1.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2036 on: December 15, 2017, 09:59:38 am »

The analysis all seems good, but I do take issue with this part, even if just on the technicality of it.

But chairs is town according to N1 and N2's results, even when Godfather/framing is taken into account. (unless both Godfather and framing happened simultaneously on some night, which is possible, I guess, but I rate it very unlikely)

If Chairs' role is just straight up Godfather, then he would appear as town in your results every night. So I don't see how your results can ever completely clear him or anyone as town.

I DO think he is town, mostly based on how he reacted to my tunnel on him yesterday, his choice to jailkeep me, and his pretty towny reaction to the way this day has been unfolding. But if he is scum, he's Godfather and shows as red on your results. In that case, probably both he and Dylan are scum.

That would require, probably, both Godfather and some form of framing. So I would call it highly unlikely. I just don't want anyone to think that your results can somehow prove that someone isn't a Godfather, on the off chance that one of the remaining players is one.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2037 on: December 15, 2017, 10:19:57 am »

All in all, right now this game is reminding me of scholars arguing about the minutiae of an incredibly dense text. Everyone has a slightly different theory, and it's incredibly difficult to even understand one another's perspectives, but the overarching message is still pretty clear.

I did go back and reread Dylan. It doesn't take very long. I can make a reads based case if anyone would like to be convinced.

In his opening statement, he makes a scummy argument against silverspawn and a hedgy townread on Awaclus that both could easily come from scum, knowing what we know now.

This post, this post, and this post make a pretty scummy series, and are consistent with the theory that scum wanted to use the frozen players to achieve no lynches. If he is town, then IRL presumably got in the way of him participating in the game literally in any way on D3..... I think the stalling scum narrative is simpler.

His claim here in tandem with his two posts of stalling about his night action claim today I think are the scummiest of the claims. Dylan has essentially claimed that for the entire game (except last night, possibly) he's done nothing of any consequence. Also, he claimed a protective ability that he should have been able to use to protect the IC last night, but the IC still died.

Also, Chairs claims to have jailkept Dylan on N2. Were we missing a kill that night? I want to look into that. If so, that alone is a super good reason to lynch Dylan, now that I can also independently confirm Chairs' even night jailkeeping.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #2038 on: December 15, 2017, 10:25:41 am »

WHY NO HAMMER?

yuma, I know you withdrew this in your next comment, but why did you say it in the first place?

Day 2 Final Vote Count

DatSwan (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): gkrieg13
Dylan (2): Haddock, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, Witherweaver, EFHW, iguanaiguana, Galzria, silverspawn

Not Voting (5): ashersky, 2.71828....., JaketheBaseballGod22, Dylan32, chairs

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Enjoy some hours of twilight until I can get to this.

The biggest piece of evidence in favor of Dylan being town is that not a single scum bothered to vote for either him or Spaceanemone D2. You would think that if Dylan were a partner, they would have placed votes either on him for town cred or against him to keep him alive.

Although, the counterargument there is that maybe scum was standing by ready to vote for Space if enough people switched last minute to Dylan. The fact that Awaclus posted in the thread during twilight shortly after the deadline seems to be an indicator that this could be the case.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2039 on: December 15, 2017, 10:32:17 am »

The analysis all seems good, but I do take issue with this part, even if just on the technicality of it.

But chairs is town according to N1 and N2's results, even when Godfather/framing is taken into account. (unless both Godfather and framing happened simultaneously on some night, which is possible, I guess, but I rate it very unlikely)

If Chairs' role is just straight up Godfather, then he would appear as town in your results every night. So I don't see how your results can ever completely clear him or anyone as town.

I DO think he is town, mostly based on how he reacted to my tunnel on him yesterday, his choice to jailkeep me, and his pretty towny reaction to the way this day has been unfolding. But if he is scum, he's Godfather and shows as red on your results. In that case, probably both he and Dylan are scum.

That would require, probably, both Godfather and some form of framing. So I would call it highly unlikely. I just don't want anyone to think that your results can somehow prove that someone isn't a Godfather, on the off chance that one of the remaining players is one.
I think you've pretty much made my point for me.

We shouldn't be worrying about permanent godfathers right now. Because if chairs is a godfather (or someone else for that matter) then last night's results guarantee that one of Jake/Dylan/EFHW is scum as well, anyway.

I have made this point in about a million different ways but no-one seems to be listening.

We should ONLY be worrying about x-shot abilities right now.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2040 on: December 15, 2017, 10:35:52 am »

So there was no kill N1 or N2. Awaclus killed N3 and someone else killed N4.

The reigning explanation has been that scum shot Gkrieg N1, accidentally recruiting him as a full member of the mafia team. That would have forced them to choose between a normal kill N2 and a freeze, explaining the lack of a kill N2.

There's another possible explanation though. We know that scum didn't shoot Galzria N1 (because I shot him N2 and he was bulletproof), but silverspawn also claimed he could have prevented the mafia kill N1. If that's the case, then Chairs could have blocked the mafia kill N2 with his jailkeeping.

I haven't looked at silver's role yet. I'm going to go check that and see how likely it is that he blocked the N1 kill.

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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #2041 on: December 15, 2017, 10:36:42 am »

WHY NO HAMMER?

yuma, I know you withdrew this in your next comment, but why did you say it in the first place?

Day 2 Final Vote Count

DatSwan (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): gkrieg13
Dylan (2): Haddock, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (5): DatSwan, Witherweaver, EFHW, iguanaiguana, Galzria, silverspawn

Not Voting (5): ashersky, 2.71828....., JaketheBaseballGod22, Dylan32, chairs

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Enjoy some hours of twilight until I can get to this.

The biggest piece of evidence in favor of Dylan being town is that not a single scum bothered to vote for either him or Spaceanemone D2. You would think that if Dylan were a partner, they would have placed votes either on him for town cred or against him to keep him alive.

Although, the counterargument there is that maybe scum was standing by ready to vote for Space if enough people switched last minute to Dylan. The fact that Awaclus posted in the thread during twilight shortly after the deadline seems to be an indicator that this could be the case.
Also plurality lynch was possible that time, so no urgency to vote to get a lynch.
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2042 on: December 15, 2017, 10:37:32 am »

The analysis all seems good, but I do take issue with this part, even if just on the technicality of it.

But chairs is town according to N1 and N2's results, even when Godfather/framing is taken into account. (unless both Godfather and framing happened simultaneously on some night, which is possible, I guess, but I rate it very unlikely)

If Chairs' role is just straight up Godfather, then he would appear as town in your results every night. So I don't see how your results can ever completely clear him or anyone as town.

I DO think he is town, mostly based on how he reacted to my tunnel on him yesterday, his choice to jailkeep me, and his pretty towny reaction to the way this day has been unfolding. But if he is scum, he's Godfather and shows as red on your results. In that case, probably both he and Dylan are scum.

That would require, probably, both Godfather and some form of framing. So I would call it highly unlikely. I just don't want anyone to think that your results can somehow prove that someone isn't a Godfather, on the off chance that one of the remaining players is one.
I think you've pretty much made my point for me.

We shouldn't be worrying about permanent godfathers right now. Because if chairs is a godfather (or someone else for that matter) then last night's results guarantee that one of Jake/Dylan/EFHW is scum as well, anyway.

I have made this point in about a million different ways but no-one seems to be listening.

We should ONLY be worrying about x-shot abilities right now.
All in all, right now this game is reminding me of scholars arguing about the minutiae of an incredibly dense text.

I DO agree with you Haddock, and I am listening :) The only reason I made the post is because if someone thinks that chairs is confirmed town at LyLo (if this game even goes to LyLo), that would be a bad thing.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2043 on: December 15, 2017, 10:38:40 am »

I'm ready to vote dylan.
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2044 on: December 15, 2017, 10:38:52 am »

Oh man, that smiley is bad. Needs sunglasses  8)
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2045 on: December 15, 2017, 10:48:51 am »

silverspawn was not incredibly likely to have prevented the kill. Most likely he tried to redirect the kill onto Galzria.

I'm ready to vote Dylan too.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2046 on: December 15, 2017, 10:57:29 am »

I'm ready for it, I think we've talked it over pretty well as a group.

Let's vote Dylan.

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2047 on: December 15, 2017, 10:58:30 am »

I’m ready as well. I received EFHW’s note.
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2048 on: December 15, 2017, 10:59:21 am »

Vote: Dylan
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2049 on: December 15, 2017, 10:59:58 am »

EFHW, where is your claim?
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None
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