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Author Topic: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Game over!)  (Read 225805 times)

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EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2000 on: December 14, 2017, 02:53:25 pm »

I'm thinking you were framed last night, bc you have to be yellow from these results.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2001 on: December 14, 2017, 03:04:41 pm »

I'm thinking you were framed last night, bc you have to be yellow from these results.

No, one of Jake or I has to be yellow, or all 5 of you have to be town.

N4:
Red - Dylan, 2.7, EFHW, Haddock, chairs
Yellow - Jake, Iguana
Response:
Right colour right place 5
Right colour wrong place 1

If I'm yellow:

RCRP: 2.7, Haddock, Iguana, + 2 of [EFHW, Dylan, Chairs]
RCWP: Jake (town)

This means that yellow is the survivor color, or I was framed. It's also not consistent with previous night's results. So yeah, it means I was framed.

If I'm white or blue, and Jake + one of [EFHW, Dylan, Chairs] are yellow:

RCRP: Haddock, 2.7, Jake, 2 of [EFHW, Dylan, Chairs]
RCWP: The remaining one of [EFHW, Dylan, Chairs] who switches with me.

Both of those possibilities work.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2002 on: December 14, 2017, 03:06:28 pm »

Actually, it's not possible for all people who are listed as town to be town. If they were, there would be no RCWP because swapping would be impossible.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2003 on: December 14, 2017, 03:42:42 pm »

I'm thinking you were framed last night, bc you have to be yellow from these results.
And then N2 works.
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2004 on: December 14, 2017, 03:43:02 pm »

I'm thinking you were framed last night, bc you have to be yellow from these results.
And then N2 works.
I mean, N2 works if you were framed that night.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2005 on: December 14, 2017, 03:46:23 pm »

Can you post your full solution?

One kinda likely thing is that scum passed the miller T shirt onto someone else at some point.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2006 on: December 14, 2017, 04:05:30 pm »

I just realized that it wouldn't have to be WW who was framed N3, it could be Jake who was either framed or recruited.

To put it simply, if I am blue, Dylan is yellow, and Jake reads as yellow only for N3 & N4, and the rest of living players are red, then all results are consistent.

Everyone should go check this themselves.
N2 doesn't work because then there would be no wrong colors.

Maybe I am playing mastermind wrong. Here is my N2 solution with Dylan as yellow:

Yellow: EFHW, DatSwan, WW
Blue: Dylan
Red: ash, Haddock, Awaclus, gkrieg, chairs, e, Jake, Galz, iguana, silver

Right colour right place: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, Jake, Galz, silver (7)
Right colour wrong place: Awaclus <> DatSwan; Gkrieg <> WW; Dylan <> Iguana

If you can swap Dylan two times, then it fails. But I was going on the assumption that you can only swap once.
This is not how it works.
Take it from someone who's been working with this all game: thinking about "swapping people" is not a good way to think about the problem.


Seems pointless in light of iguana's claim.  But sure:

schadd: Yellow
gkrieg: Yellow
Awaclus: Yellow
EFHW: Yellow
iguana: Yellow
Jake: White
Space: Red
Galz: Red
Swan: Red
e: Red
ash: Red
silver: Red
Haddock: Red
Dylan: Red
chairs: Red
WW: Red (but Framed Yellow on N3)

This gives (7,7) for N1, but (6,7) for N2, (7,2) for N3 (with WW reading Yellow for that night only), and (6,0) for N4.

PPE: interesting stuff from iguana to look at :-)

What?

No.
I mean. Without even checking it's obvious that it doesn't give (6,0) N4
Yeah your numbers here are wrong across the board.
My solution definitely gives (7,7) for N1,
(7,5) for N2
and
(5,1) for N4. 

So is consistent with those nights.

It's not the WW-Framed one though.  Sorry.  This is the solution I had figured out for if gkrieg was a 1-shot Godfather on N3.  Then N3 is correct.  Not with the Framing thing.  Sorry.




Jake shouldn't have been framed N3 anyway, because that's the night that WW copped him innocent. So at least for that one night Jake should be red.
Does it have to be Jake? Anybody being framed would meddle with our results.

I generated an explanation for why we have correct that isn't "everyone Haddock listed as town is town" and isn't "Iguana is yellow."

If you still need to know why I'm not yellow, ask Awaclus or Gkrieg.
Yeah I'm pretty sure N1 on its own tells us that yellow is the scum colour.
Which then guarantees that Jake is scum or framed.  Or iguana was Framed. 
Framing seems very likely at this point.  Working on it.


Lots of other people's analysis to look at.  Catching up.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2007 on: December 14, 2017, 04:06:10 pm »

Can you post your full solution?

One kinda likely thing is that scum passed the miller T shirt onto someone else at some point.
Wouldn't we know about this?
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2008 on: December 14, 2017, 04:08:31 pm »

Actually, it's not possible for all people who are listed as town to be town. If they were, there would be no RCWP because swapping would be impossible.
Correct.  The options are:

1) You yellow, Jake Red, someone else some other non-town colour.

2) You blue/white, Jake yellow, someone else yellow. (Maybe with Jake framed)

3) You yellow, Jake blue/white, someone else yellow (I think this would mean you were framed, in which case Jake is 3rd party and I would have expected him to have counterclaimed by now).
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2009 on: December 14, 2017, 04:12:25 pm »

Can anyone else at least confirm that if Do results are accurate, then chairs is town or at least godfather?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2010 on: December 14, 2017, 04:12:42 pm »

D1*
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2011 on: December 14, 2017, 04:18:45 pm »

If yellow=scum and there has been framing I think I now get the same results as iguana    and Dylan is scum. Not accounting for possible Miller T-shirt passing.               
                     
N1:    7 RR:    e   EFHW   Hadd   Awa    silver   WW   Dylan/Jake
   7 RW:   ash   iguana   schadd   Dat/Galz   chairs   Dylan/Jake
   2 WC:   Dat/Galz   Space            
If town framed, chairs is yellow because 2 of {chairs, dylan, jake} would be RR.
If iguana framed, no change to results.
                     
N2:   7 RR:   e   Hadd       Galz   silver   ash   Jake chairs
   5 RW   EFHW   gkrieg   DatS    awa   WW
   2 WC   iguana (framed), Dylan               
                     
N3:   7 RR:   e   EFHW   Haddock   Iguana   DatS    silver  chairs
   3 RW:   Galz   gkrieg   awa         
   3 WC:   Jake   WW    Dylan       There is an extra red;  two blues should be yellow
                     
N4:   5 RR:   e   EFHW   Hadd      chairs   Jake   (framed)
   1 RW:   Dylan            
   1 WC:   iguana      
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EFHW

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2012 on: December 14, 2017, 04:20:43 pm »

This isn't a rigorous proof, just a solution that matches the data.
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Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2013 on: December 14, 2017, 04:41:30 pm »

Can anyone else at least confirm that if Do results are accurate, then chairs is town or at least godfather?
I think so.
I've made an excel document that lets me trial things pretty super fast.  I'll try to make it a googledoc so other people can fiddle.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2014 on: December 14, 2017, 04:45:42 pm »

Can anyone else at least confirm that if Do results are accurate, then chairs is town or at least godfather?
I think so.
I've made an excel document that lets me trial things pretty super fast.  I'll try to make it a googledoc so other people can fiddle.
Mmm can't make it work.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2015 on: December 14, 2017, 05:11:00 pm »

OK I'm happy with all my excel fiddling now.

I can come up with several examples of where framing and Godfather makes things work.

But chairs is town according to N1 and N2's results, even when Godfather/framing is taken into account.  (unless both Godfather and framing happened simultaneously on some night, which is possible, I guess, but I rate it very unlikely)

So it's Dylan, EFHW, or Jake.

If we assume Jake is framed!town, then Dylan and EFHW are both equally likely scum by the results: both of them would have to be godfather on N2 for it to work.  In that case I would definitely vote Dylan on the back of other things.

If Jake is scum, well, not much more to say there.  I can't really make this work, though. Someone else would have to be scum, too, and I can't make anything work.

Fwiw, I have a solution where Jake is town and there's been a godfather and framing every night.  Which might well be the case at this point.
(It goes: Dylan/EFHW is yellow, used a Godfather shot on N2, gkrieg used a godfather shot night 3, and Jake was framed N4.    And iguana is W.
Could also have somebody like Galz or Swan Framed N1, makes no difference to the result.)

Trying to find some solutions which have no godfathers, just framings.



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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2016 on: December 14, 2017, 05:15:38 pm »

Trying to find some solutions which have no godfathers, just framings.
I can't find one with only framings.  Godfather seems to be required, to make sense of N3.  Unless Jake and Dylan are both scum, in which case there might be things that work, but N1+N2 will need some massaging.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2017 on: December 14, 2017, 05:17:51 pm »

Interestingly, scum!Dylan + scum!Jake is possible if schadd or gkrieg used a Godfather shot on N1 and EFHW or Swan or WW was framed on N2.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2018 on: December 14, 2017, 05:22:11 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2019 on: December 14, 2017, 05:23:33 pm »

I think what I'm learning from my Excel fiddling is that there are just WAY too many possibilities.

Now that we know that X-shot Godfathers and/or Framings are guaranteed to exist, there are too many solutions to the puzzle.


But there is definitely scum in Dylan/EFHW/Jake/chairs, and we have WW's cop result on Jake and N1's result is inconsistent with scum!chairs unless Godfather AND Framing was done N1.  Which just seems inconceivable.

EFHW is town for other reasons.

So yes I would be very happy to lynch Dylan here.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2020 on: December 14, 2017, 05:24:16 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here
EFHW incriminated Awaclus, remember?  Plus, for scum!EFHW you'd need to find me a scum role which has the ability to send messages to other players nightly.  I'm assuming that others have received messages from EFHW by now?
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2021 on: December 14, 2017, 05:26:16 pm »

I think what I'm learning from my Excel fiddling is that there are just WAY too many possibilities.

Now that we know that X-shot Godfathers and/or Framings are guaranteed to exist, there are too many solutions to the puzzle.


But there is definitely scum in Dylan/EFHW/Jake/chairs, and we have WW's cop result on Jake and N1's result is inconsistent with scum!chairs unless Godfather AND Framing was done N1.  Which just seems inconceivable.

EFHW is town for other reasons.

So yes I would be very happy to lynch Dylan here.
The bolded bit isn't quite what I meant to say.

In fact, we know there is scum in Dylan/EFHW/chairs by N4's result alone.  So we don't even need WW's cop result to narrow it down to EFHW/Dylan.

I will reread both.  At some point.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2022 on: December 14, 2017, 05:49:24 pm »

Trying to find some solutions which have no godfathers, just framings.
I can't find one with only framings.  Godfather seems to be required, to make sense of N3.  Unless Jake and Dylan are both scum, in which case there might be things that work, but N1+N2 will need some massaging.
Did you look at mine?
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2023 on: December 14, 2017, 05:50:09 pm »

Leaning scum EFHW here
EFHW incriminated Awaclus, remember?  Plus, for scum!EFHW you'd need to find me a scum role which has the ability to send messages to other players nightly.  I'm assuming that others have received messages from EFHW by now?
I didn't send one yesterday. Could drop Jake a note.
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Re: RMM47: Rewind Mafia 2 (Day 5)
« Reply #2024 on: December 14, 2017, 06:12:53 pm »

Trying to find some solutions which have no godfathers, just framings.
I can't find one with only framings.  Godfather seems to be required, to make sense of N3.  Unless Jake and Dylan are both scum, in which case there might be things that work, but N1+N2 will need some massaging.
Did you look at mine?
I did, but I didn't understand it.
What are your proposed alignments/framing patterns?
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87
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