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[Witherweaver]

He never said anything about a town read on Ash or anything about Ash at all until Ash died. And we discussed how frozen Ash could be scum at some.length.

This is a very good point.

[EFHW]

Shutting up for real now.

This seems weird to me, that Haddock would listen to scum!WW telling him to stop posting.

[EFHW]

He never said anything about a town read on Ash or anything about Ash at all until Ash died. And we discussed how frozen Ash could be scum at some.length.

This is a very good point.

[EFHW]

He never said anything about a town read on Ash or anything about Ash at all until Ash died. And we discussed how frozen Ash could be scum at some.length.

This is a very good point.

Sorry. He also misrepresented his role. He said he could only talk to a dead player N1, but the pm doesn't say that. That's a really powerful role that could be useful.

[iguanaiguana]

I don't think he said that.

[iguanaiguana]

I think if Dylan is town, time for you to put your tryhard face on dude. You've been lurking bad and haven't posted content in ages.

[Dylan32]

So I did distinguish with a slight (arguably too small) breadcrumb when talking about the frozen people being possible scum:

Night 2 looks less informative for the town set, but there are at most 5 town in {Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}.

Well, Gkrieg, Jake overlap from the previous set, as well as Silver and IG.

Are you saying that gkrieg, Jake, silver, and IG would be most likely to be scum based on overlapping in the sets?

Also, I'm not sure how much silver (or ash really) being frozen means they are town. If the freezing role was a traitor that didn't know who the rest of their team was, all it says it that the traitor thought they were town, and they could have been wrong.

I meant to convey that being frozen does not mean silver is town, and that technically being frozen isn't what means town, but not in the same breath as silver because he's town for this other reason.  Based on his comments N1, Ash didn't know my alignment. Also, I never said my talk to dead ability was N1 only. I only said I haven't used it yet.

[Dylan32]

I think if Dylan is town, time for you to put your tryhard face on dude. You've been lurking bad and haven't posted content in ages.

Yeah, I'm truly sorry. Even though I'm not in classes, working on a college campus gets significantly busier right before finals. On the bright side, I don't have exams to worry about, so I'm actually done a week earlier than students

[Dylan32]

Yeah, I didn't say really anything else about Ash, because there was never really any way he was going to get lynched or anything after he got frozen. I was actually planning on somehow conveying that I thought/knew he was going to flip town right before last night, but mixed up the timezones and completely missed EoD.

[Dylan32]

So I really need to take some time and read all of Haddock's stuff and the resulting claims/theories, because I've had a hard time following what we actually know from what people are speculating about/intentionally obfuscating in the case of scum. Hopefully I'll be able to do that tomorrow. I'll even give in and read on mobile if I have to, which I usually avoid like the plague.

[Dylan32]

Normal read wise- EFHW and Jake are probably two of my highest gut scumreads. Need to check those reads against night action things, cuz I don't remember what most people claimed already.

[EFHW]

Looks like I conflated chairs and dylan, sorry. But that talk to the dead power would be a lot of work to fake, and he hasn't used it. But then having me as his top scumread shows he isn't paying a lot of attention to the game, which could be a sign of towniness.

[EFHW]

Still concerned about cult. I played RMM32, and I remember the cult as pretty insidious. 

[chairs]

Conflating me with anybody is bad, since I post about once a day most of the time.

Space's stuff looks consistent and WW is non-town in all of them and that's good enough for me to vote: WW for now.

That said...

Space, can you re-run the simulations from a chairs-based POV where you aren't conf!town but I am?

Not that I think it will drastically swap the outcomes but maybe we'll find some surprises. Probably could find interesting data by restricting it with each non-conf!town player's POV in mind (assuming they're town) - maybe we can find a person where the outcomes don't make any sense, or there aren't any possible outcomes.

[Witherweaver]

Conflating me with anybody is bad, since I post about once a day most of the time.

Space's stuff looks consistent and WW is non-town in all of them and that's good enough for me to vote: WW for now.

That said...

Space, can you re-run the simulations from a chairs-based POV where you aren't conf!town but I am?

Not that I think it will drastically swap the outcomes but maybe we'll find some surprises. Probably could find interesting data by restricting it with each non-conf!town player's POV in mind (assuming they're town) - maybe we can find a person where the outcomes don't make any sense, or there aren't any possible outcomes.

This is absolutely terrible if you're town.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Conflating me with anybody is bad, since I post about once a day most of the time.

Space's stuff looks consistent and WW is non-town in all of them and that's good enough for me to vote: WW for now.

That said...

Space, can you re-run the simulations from a chairs-based POV where you aren't conf!town but I am?

Not that I think it will drastically swap the outcomes but maybe we'll find some surprises. Probably could find interesting data by restricting it with each non-conf!town player's POV in mind (assuming they're town) - maybe we can find a person where the outcomes don't make any sense, or there aren't any possible outcomes.

This is absolutely terrible if you're town.

I agree

[EFHW]

Conflating me with anybody is bad, since I post about once a day most of the time.

That's not very often.

[EFHW]

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

The 4th one down is Haddock's provided solution. The first two are less believable because it would mean PPS would have had to have shared a colour with somebody, and the last two seem to have a really big yellow team.. maybe valid if we really did have two traitor players, though? WW is non-town in all of them anyway, so that's quite a good place to look.

I don't think this solution works. We have 6 unknowns (from my perspective), 3 rw and 3 rr. One is yellow (chairs), 5 are red. If chairs is supposed to be red, then we have 5 people who aren't red who should be (chairs, galz, datswan, ash and space). After accounting for gkrieg and schadd, we need three more red mistakes in the group of unknowns. That leaves two red to be rr when we need three, and then chairs and the 3 mistakes make 4 rw, which is too many.

If chairs is yellow, it still doesn't work because then we have too many rr's.

[Witherweaver]

Spoilers: None of the solutions work with the actual game setup.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, can you re-run the simulations from a chairs-based POV where you aren't conf!town but I am?

The first one I ran had Haddock as conf!town as well, then when I moved him to the non-conf!town camp it didn't make any different to the outcome longer, it just made it take a lot longer to crunch through the possible outcomes. I'm running a version where I'm non-red but Haddock is conf!red now, because the combinatorics of it mean that I think making us both possibly-non-red will take too long. I'm happy to provide my little recursive checking function if you want to try it yourself, though!

For anyone else's town!them PoV, just discount the cases where they're a non-town colour... it's impossible for there to be cases that come up when I force your colour to be red that don't also come up when I allow the code to try all possible colours for you. (Or at least it is now that the bug I wrote on my flight the other day is slain!).

Update: that took ages, with a whole bunch of PPEs.

Code: [Select]

Results for cases where only Ash, Galz, DatSwan and Haddock are conf!town. This is all the configurations where the constraints for N1, N2 and N3 are satisfied, and where Awaclus, gkrieg and schadd are the same colour.

247128 options fit the bill for N1.

29285 options fit the bill for N2 with N1.

1440 options fit the bill for N3 with N1&N2.

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: Space, chairs, WW
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: Space, chairs, WW
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Space, Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Space, Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Iguana, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, silver
White: Space, Dylan, Iguana
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, silver
White: Space, Dylan, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Iguana, silver
White: Space, Jake, Dylan
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Iguana, silver
White: Space, Dylan, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Iguana, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, Space, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, Space, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: EFHW, Space, Iguana
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: EFHW, Space, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: EFHW, Space, Jake
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: EFHW, Space, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake

Red: Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: NONE
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, chairs
Blue: Iguana, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: NONE
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, chairs
Blue: Jake, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Space, chairs
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Space, chairs
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake, WW


[SpaceAnemone]

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

The 4th one down is Haddock's provided solution. The first two are less believable because it would mean PPS would have had to have shared a colour with somebody, and the last two seem to have a really big yellow team.. maybe valid if we really did have two traitor players, though? WW is non-town in all of them anyway, so that's quite a good place to look.

I don't think this solution works. We have 6 unknowns (from my perspective), 3 rw and 3 rr. One is yellow (chairs), 5 are red. If chairs is supposed to be red, then we have 5 people who aren't red who should be (chairs, galz, datswan, ash and space). After accounting for gkrieg and schadd, we need three more red mistakes in the group of unknowns. That leaves two red to be rr when we need three, and then chairs and the 3 mistakes make 4 rw, which is too many.

If chairs is yellow, it still doesn't work because then we have too many rr's.

I'm afraid I don't follow your logic here. Could you refer your thinking back to the original problem, and indicate which constraint are you saying it violates?

[EFHW]

At this point, I think I want to lynch Jake. I don't know if he is scum or another kind of non-town, but I can't imagine him as town at this point.

It's also possible the game will end today if silver is scum.

I don't feel good about the WW-Haddock interaction, where Haddock meekly obeyed WW's command to stop posting when the bulk of Haddock's posts were accusing WW of being scum. I have believed both of them to be town, though, so it would need to be something extreme like cult for them to share some other non-town alignment. I don't trust the puzzle enough to be voting WW based on those results and this speculation has no other evidence to support it, so I'm settling on Jake.

1 ppe

[EFHW]

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

The 4th one down is Haddock's provided solution. The first two are less believable because it would mean PPS would have had to have shared a colour with somebody, and the last two seem to have a really big yellow team.. maybe valid if we really did have two traitor players, though? WW is non-town in all of them anyway, so that's quite a good place to look.

I don't think this solution works. We have 6 unknowns (from my perspective), 3 rw and 3 rr. One is yellow (chairs), 5 are red. If chairs is supposed to be red, then we have 5 people who aren't red who should be (chairs, galz, datswan, ash and space). After accounting for gkrieg and schadd, we need three more red mistakes in the group of unknowns. That leaves two red to be rr when we need three, and then chairs and the 3 mistakes make 4 rw, which is too many.

If chairs is yellow, it still doesn't work because then we have too many rr's.

I'm afraid I don't follow your logic here. Could you refer your thinking back to the original problem, and indicate which constraint are you saying it violates?

I don't even know anymore. I could have made a mistake. But why not enter ash and yourself as confirmed town as well, and gkrieg, schadd and awaclus as confirmed scum?

[Witherweaver]

Space, can you re-run the simulations from a chairs-based POV where you aren't conf!town but I am?

The first one I ran had Haddock as conf!town as well, then when I moved him to the non-conf!town camp it didn't make any different to the outcome longer, it just made it take a lot longer to crunch through the possible outcomes. I'm running a version where I'm non-red but Haddock is conf!red now, because the combinatorics of it mean that I think making us both possibly-non-red will take too long. I'm happy to provide my little recursive checking function if you want to try it yourself, though!

For anyone else's town!them PoV, just discount the cases where they're a non-town colour... it's impossible for there to be cases that come up when I force your colour to be red that don't also come up when I allow the code to try all possible colours for you. (Or at least it is now that the bug I wrote on my flight the other day is slain!).

Update: that took ages, with a whole bunch of PPEs.

Code: [Select]

Results for cases where only Ash, Galz, DatSwan and Haddock are conf!town. This is all the configurations where the constraints for N1, N2 and N3 are satisfied, and where Awaclus, gkrieg and schadd are the same colour.

247128 options fit the bill for N1.

29285 options fit the bill for N2 with N1.

1440 options fit the bill for N3 with N1&N2.

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: Space, chairs, WW
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: Space, chairs, WW
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Space, Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Yellow: chairs, WW
Blue: Space, Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Iguana, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, Space, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, silver
White: Space, Dylan, Iguana
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, silver
White: Space, Dylan, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Iguana, silver
White: Space, Jake, Dylan
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Iguana, silver
White: Space, Dylan, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Iguana, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, Space, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: EFHW, Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Jake, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, Space, schadd
Blue: NONE

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: EFHW, Space, Iguana
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: EFHW, Space, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: EFHW, Space, Jake
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, chairs, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: EFHW, Space, WW
Yellow: Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake

Red: Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: NONE
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, chairs
Blue: Iguana, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, Space, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: NONE
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd, chairs
Blue: Jake, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Jake, Galz, Dylan, silver
White: Space, chairs
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Iguana, WW

Red: Ash, Haddock, e, DatSwan, Galz, Dylan, Iguana, silver
White: Space, chairs
Yellow: EFHW, Awaclus, gkrieg, schadd
Blue: Jake, WW


I suspect you will be very amused when you see all of these are incorrect.

[iguanaiguana]

At this point, I think I want to lynch Jake. I don't know if he is scum or another kind of non-town, but I can't imagine him as town at this point.

It's also possible the game will end today if silver is scum.

I don't feel good about the WW-Haddock interaction, where Haddock meekly obeyed WW's command to stop posting when the bulk of Haddock's posts were accusing WW of being scum. I have believed both of them to be town, though, so it would need to be something extreme like cult for them to share some other non-town alignment. I don't trust the puzzle enough to be voting WW based on those results and this speculation has no other evidence to support it, so I'm settling on Jake.

1 ppe

If you trust WW, you may want to trust his cop result on Jake too (innocent).