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[chairs]

Well, vote: iguanaiguana seems to be the right play here.

[SpaceAnemone]

This is correct.

Also note my post #1618, where I summarise the "all-possible outcomes" provided by my Excel checking,  and my next few posts where (having discarded 2 outcomes based on their being total nonsense in terms of game design) I reach some more specific conclusions.

Thanks! I saw there was extra stuff too, but it's more fun to do my own independent check first :-) Assuming I don't just zonk out and sleep on this flight to make my journey subjectively shorter. Bad weather and delays are making it fun...

[iguanaiguana]

Realized that it's actually my turn to claim.

I am Clark Kent from Smallville Mafia (RMM 43).

I am an unlimited vigilante with a 1-shot commute. I can use any two abilities at night. In the original run of Smallville mafia, Clark Kent gained abilities as the game went on. However, I have not gotten any new abilities. Also, it also specifies that if I am lynched, there will be negative consequences for town.

N1 I didn't have strong enough scum reads to shoot - I had basically been focused all day on lynching PPS and had no other strong reads.

N2 I shot Galzria. My logic was that if he was town, he should be bulletproof and survive. Whereas if he was scum, he may not be bulletproof and I could kill him.

When he survived that kill shot and Space also confirmed that they had lost their item (and he said it was just the item he needed), it seemed that he must be the role he was claiming and I had a strong townread on him from that point on.

N3 I shot Gkrieg and redirected people targeting Haddock onto Datswan using my item. As a result, Awaclus died.

So I was responsble for both scum deaths last night.

My plan will be to both commute and shoot tonight. That way I can guarantee to get off at least two more shots before I die, unless we just win.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Will only lynch Dylan, chairs or WW today.

[Witherweaver]

Iguana's claim sounds pretty believable.

[Witherweaver]

Haddock, any thoughts on my Night 3 analysis?

[iguanaiguana]

 Vote: Chairs

OMG, your OMGUS sucks.

[Haddock]

I don't think Iguana can be town. If he's town, then he's not correct at Blue, so the four correct have to be Silver, EFHW, Dylan, Chairs.

I don't follow. Should I just claim?

There were 7 correct on Night 3, and three of them are e, Haddock, DatSwan. There must be four more correct guesses. Galz, Jake, and me were not correct.  What's left is you (Blue) and Silver, EFHW, Dylan, Chairs (Red).

If you are town, then your color is not correct, so all of Silver, EFHW, Dylan, Chairs, must be correct, so they are town. But then we don't have any scum left.

Something seems dodgy (not suspicious, just... I dunno) with this reasoning, can't put my finger on it.  I'm super tired, will think tomorrow.

[chairs]

Vote: Chairs

OMG, your OMGUS sucks.

It wasn't OMGUS, it just seemed that the analysis was that either I was scum or you were. I guess I'm misunderstanding though (also I'm really jealous if you really are an unlimited vig it's my favorite role).

I could go for lynching someone else, if that's not the case.

[Dylan32]

I don't really understand the point of the experiment thing, but if people know what it is supposed to accomplish, I'll go ahead and Vote: iguana.

I'll go ahead and claim.

I was Ashersky's neighbor, and I'm Wesley Windham-Prince from RMM 25. I have a passive ability called Watcher's Council that confirmed at the beginning of the game that Ash shared the same win-con as me.

I have 3 one shot abilities I can use through the game called Demon-hunting Practices. I can talk to a dead person (for 1 game phase), do magic detection (check if someone was redirected one night), and shield (divide game into 2 groups, can't target anyone in the other group).

N2 I tried to see if Datswan was redirected, but got no result.

Guys, uh, I already claimed like 5 pages ago.

[Haddock]

Firstly: please everyone stop thinking godfather can mess with my results.   It cannot.
It can make scum look red, but not the converse. If my results implicate someone as scum, godfather cannot somehow make that person not-scum.

Secondly: WW makes a good point but it is incomplete.

In fact, thanks to a version of his n3 analysis about number of corrects, we now know the following:

Precisely 2 of WW, Jake and iguana are White, whatever that means.
Everyone else is either town or a godfather.

I lean towards WW and Jake being the scums: emphasised by WW's saving of Jake yesterday. My theory is that it was WW's vote that didn't count, and he knew this and was trying to force a no lynch. Have a look at his behaviour. It fits.

That said, White is be third party, so if whichever 2 of those 3 folks wants to come out and claim that they are not a threat to town, maybe we'll lynch someone else today, though I doubt it.

[Haddock]

vote: WW

No-one should be voting for anyone other than WW iguana or Jake for the rest of today.

[Haddock]

Vote: Chairs

OMG, your OMGUS sucks.

It wasn't OMGUS, it just seemed that the analysis was that either I was scum or you were. I guess I'm misunderstanding though (also I'm really jealous if you really are an unlimited vig it's my favorite role).

I could go for lynching someone else, if that's not the case.

See my last for clarification on this. Iguana is not guaranteed scum from your perspective.

[Haddock]

If we believe that (3 scum, 2 something else, PPS) was the starting setup, then chairs is guaranteed town.

Also if we believe this then exactly one of WW/EFHW/Dylan is White.

Oh here we go. Cool.

I nearly forgot about this.
We are now guaranteed to be in this situation, and Efhw is Red.
Therefore WW is not town.

100% guaranteed. Everyone vote ww please.

[Haddock]

If we believe that (3 scum, 2 something else, PPS) was the starting setup, then chairs is guaranteed town.

Also if we believe this then exactly one of WW/EFHW/Dylan is White.

Oh here we go. Cool.

I nearly forgot about this.
We are now guaranteed to be in this situation, and Efhw is Red.
Therefore WW is not town.

100% guaranteed. Everyone vote ww please.

(And Dylan. Dylan is also red)

[EFHW]

When did you discard the 5-2-pps theory?

[Haddock]

When did you discard the 5-2-pps theory?

Ironically, when WW pointed out the N3 thing:
Because there are no blues in the game any more (see earlier analysis), and Galz wasn't yellow, that means last night's 7 correct results can only be the exactly 7 people who I guessed were red and who haven't yet flipped scum.


Haddock: RED
e: RED
silver: RED
EFHW: RED
Galz: YELLOW
gkrieg: RED
Awaclus: RED
Swan: RED
Dylan: RED
chairs: RED
WW: BLUE
Iguana: BLUE
Jake: BLUE

(Ie since Galz, Awa and gkrieg were all wrong, and the blues are wrong, the remaining reds must be correct - I had 7 guesses correct in total)

That means there are at most 3 non town left, which voids the 5/2 theory.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

If we believe that (3 scum, 2 something else, PPS) was the starting setup, then chairs is guaranteed town.

Also if we believe this then exactly one of WW/EFHW/Dylan is White.

Oh here we go. Cool.

I nearly forgot about this.
We are now guaranteed to be in this situation, and Efhw is Red.
Therefore WW is not town.

100% guaranteed. Everyone vote ww please.

Thats what I’ve been saying the whole time. Vote: WW

[iguanaiguana]

If we believe that (3 scum, 2 something else, PPS) was the starting setup, then chairs is guaranteed town.

Also if we believe this then exactly one of WW/EFHW/Dylan is White.

Oh here we go. Cool.

I nearly forgot about this.
We are now guaranteed to be in this situation, and Efhw is Red.
Therefore WW is not town.

100% guaranteed. Everyone vote ww please.

But mafia is yellow, and white is survivor or SK?

If it's 3/2/PPS, then that would mean no more mafia. We already killed 3 mafia and PPS. The game isn't over (survivor wincon would have been met).

So that would mean this game is 3 mafia, 3 serial killers?

The problem with that is that Faust didn't put us in the crappiest setup ever made.

So you must be wrong. Sorry.

[iguanaiguana]

Firstly: please everyone stop thinking godfather can mess with my results.   It cannot.
It can make scum look red, but not the converse. If my results implicate someone as scum, godfather cannot somehow make that person not-scum.

What it means is that Chairs or Dylan can be red in your little puzzle and still be scum. Why should we ignore that? Particularly when your puzzle is telling us the game only had 3 mafia apparently... Two traitors and a standard? Seriously?

Please please don't get so wrapped up in mastermind that we forget how to scum hunt.

[iguanaiguana]

I don't really understand the point of the experiment thing, but if people know what it is supposed to accomplish, I'll go ahead and Vote: iguana.

I'll go ahead and claim.

I was Ashersky's neighbor, and I'm Wesley Windham-Prince from RMM 25. I have a passive ability called Watcher's Council that confirmed at the beginning of the game that Ash shared the same win-con as me.

I have 3 one shot abilities I can use through the game called Demon-hunting Practices. I can talk to a dead person (for 1 game phase), do magic detection (check if someone was redirected one night), and shield (divide game into 2 groups, can't target anyone in the other group).

N2 I tried to see if Datswan was redirected, but got no result.

Guys, uh, I already claimed like 5 pages ago.

Yup, and I found it, so I claimed too. My bad.

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: Chairs

OMG, your OMGUS sucks.

It wasn't OMGUS, it just seemed that the analysis was that either I was scum or you were. I guess I'm misunderstanding though (also I'm really jealous if you really are an unlimited vig it's my favorite role).

I could go for lynching someone else, if that's not the case.

You are voting for the dude who killed two scum in one night. Another good reason you are scum.

[iguanaiguana]

Let's not forget that Chairs claimed that he will not die if he hides behind a player who dies or a scum player. But that is in no way part of Robbie Valentino's role. That is 100% NOT part of Robbie Valentino's role in Gravity Falls mafia.

Chairs, can you explain that more? Why do you think that is the case? Can you confirm that with Faust?

The only hider I remember ever ever that didn't die behind scum was Faust's role in RMM28, the rolecopping hiding traitor.

Not likely to be in the game because of my high draft after bidding for RMM28, but still.

[Witherweaver]

Firstly: please everyone stop thinking godfather can mess with my results.   It cannot.
It can make scum look red, but not the converse. If my results implicate someone as scum, godfather cannot somehow make that person not-scum.

Secondly: WW makes a good point but it is incomplete.

In fact, thanks to a version of his n3 analysis about number of corrects, we now know the following:

Precisely 2 of WW, Jake and iguana are White, whatever that means.
Everyone else is either town or a godfather.

I lean towards WW and Jake being the scums: emphasised by WW's saving of Jake yesterday. My theory is that it was WW's vote that didn't count, and he knew this and was trying to force a no lynch. Have a look at his behaviour. It fits.

That said, White is be third party, so if whichever 2 of those 3 folks wants to come out and claim that they are not a threat to town, maybe we'll lynch someone else today, though I doubt it.

Wait, what?  How is two white possible?

I did not save Jake.. I tried to lynch Jake. Please go reread yesterday.

[Witherweaver]

Do not lynch me. That's just terrible.