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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 35736 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1175 on: December 07, 2017, 01:06:30 am »

do people like music theme games? because i want to do sufjan stevens next at some point which may have been clear

lolz
/in
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1176 on: December 07, 2017, 01:07:27 am »

do people like music theme games? because i want to do sufjan stevens next at some point which may have been clear

lolz
/in

although for real you should do a rock star themed one. Maybe even an RMM. fuck that would be fantastic. If you do it tell me I wanna help lol.
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1177 on: December 07, 2017, 01:09:07 am »

rmms are bad for the soul and moderating one would send me down a deathly path of apostasy
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1178 on: December 07, 2017, 01:17:41 am »

rmms are bad for the soul and moderating one would send me down a deathly path of apostasy

OK fine not an RMM. You can make all the PRs like Ringo and Cash and Neil Pert and then like omg!!! Yoko can be Traitor/SK!!!

VTs can be like... IDK a combo  the members of Nysnc that aren't JT and the guy that sang Gundam Style!

That is 30 seconds of work! cmon that would be great!
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1179 on: December 07, 2017, 01:18:11 am »

TeprocPerson was signed in when posted
11-24-2017
08:20 AM ET (US)
I propose we use Skum!py from now on.


From Speccy ^^^

This is happening.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1180 on: December 07, 2017, 01:26:45 am »

Also IDK if this is polite or not, so if it is not I am sorry:

Skum buddies - great game!

Skumpster I thought you did well, don't be hard on yourself man!
LL you called it perfectly haha "OK guys this is what is going to happen. At some point Faust is going to just be like 'no he is skum' so let me take the risk and fire tonight instead."
Teproc man I really thought you almost pulled it out. In hindsight, we actually probably could of saved you and gotten E! instead.

Reading the Speccy - I guess I did not do as well as I thought I did haha! I thought I was super under the radar but II calls out like exactly what I posted in my QT regarding putting skumpy at the top of my chum list after hedging him. Good read man!
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1181 on: December 07, 2017, 01:29:29 am »

i was thinking swan for mvp since he didn't get jailshot
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1182 on: December 07, 2017, 01:42:48 am »

i was thinking swan for mvp since he didn't get jailshot

Or viged!
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1183 on: December 07, 2017, 01:53:08 am »

i.e. the shot part of jailshot
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1184 on: December 07, 2017, 02:05:51 am »

Also IDK if this is polite or not, so if it is not I am sorry:

Skum buddies - great game!

Skumpster I thought you did well, don't be hard on yourself man!

Ditto this. And you're probably right, maybe I am a legend at this game.

i was thinking swan for mvp since he didn't get jailshot

Hey, it shouldn't count against me since it cancels out! But I concur. Would be well deserved.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1185 on: December 07, 2017, 08:16:16 am »

do people like music theme games? because i want to do sufjan stevens next at some point which may have been clear

lolz
/in

I would auto in sufjan.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1186 on: December 07, 2017, 08:39:29 am »

Congrats guys, you did strong work on day 3 especially. Happy my brief stint, though it didn't save me, didn't damn anyone either through interactions.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1187 on: December 07, 2017, 09:28:05 am »

do people like music theme games? because i want to do sufjan stevens next at some point which may have been clear

I didn't really pay attention to any of the flavor. Then again, I haven't really listened to any Led Zeppelin so I was never going to be that invested in flavor here.

schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1188 on: December 07, 2017, 12:03:01 pm »

do people like music theme games? because i want to do sufjan stevens next at some point which may have been clear

I didn't really pay attention to any of the flavor. Then again, I haven't really listened to any Led Zeppelin so I was never going to be that invested in flavor here.
but that's like the whole point is that you start listening!!
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1189 on: December 07, 2017, 12:03:10 pm »

because they're good!!!!
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1190 on: December 07, 2017, 02:33:10 pm »

Yeah that's pretty crazy you haven't really checked out Zeppelin. Even if you decide you don't like them you need to know what they're all about.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #1191 on: March 25, 2018, 06:30:20 pm »

Hey @schadd :-) hullo!

You said in the setup post that the roles summing up to whatever number you've picked are chosen from the list of six options, with no repeats. Were they randomly chosen with equal prior probability of coming up, or something else? Might you specify that part of the algorithm? Thanks!

10 decide to choose 2 roles, 3 roles or 4 roles
20 choose n roles, no repeats; any particular combination of n roles is equally likely (nothing happens here to regulate the sum)
30 if the sum of the role numbers isn't more than 3 and less than 9 scrap it and goto 10

It's interesting that this algorithm makes it so not all numbers of roles are equally likely.

For 2 roles, there are (6 choose 2) = 15 possible picks. Out of these, 5 lead to termination. I.e. if 2 is chosen in step 10, then there's a 1/3 chance of reset.
For 3 roles, there is no combination that causes a reset.
For 4 roles, there are also 15 possible picks. Total sum of picks is 12, so those that are larger than 8 are exactly those where the not-chosen ones are smaller than 4, i.e. the inverse settings of the 2 role scenario. So also a 1/3 chance of reset.

The chance of 2 or 4 being chosen is thus 1/3*2/3 + 1/3*1/3*1/3*2/3+(1/3)^4*1/3*2/3+... or put differently, 2/9*sum( (1/9)^i) = 2/9*9/8=1/4.

Thus the chance of 3 roles is 50%.
pretty sure this is wrong. Should be 3/7 chance of 3 roles and 2/7 each of 2 and 4. As you say, thereís a 1/3 chance of a reset if 2 is rolled. That makes it 1.5x as likely that 3 is rolled. Sorry if I missed someone else pointing it out.
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #1192 on: March 25, 2018, 08:49:09 pm »

Hey @schadd :-) hullo!

You said in the setup post that the roles summing up to whatever number you've picked are chosen from the list of six options, with no repeats. Were they randomly chosen with equal prior probability of coming up, or something else? Might you specify that part of the algorithm? Thanks!

10 decide to choose 2 roles, 3 roles or 4 roles
20 choose n roles, no repeats; any particular combination of n roles is equally likely (nothing happens here to regulate the sum)
30 if the sum of the role numbers isn't more than 3 and less than 9 scrap it and goto 10

It's interesting that this algorithm makes it so not all numbers of roles are equally likely.

For 2 roles, there are (6 choose 2) = 15 possible picks. Out of these, 5 lead to termination. I.e. if 2 is chosen in step 10, then there's a 1/3 chance of reset.
For 3 roles, there is no combination that causes a reset.
For 4 roles, there are also 15 possible picks. Total sum of picks is 12, so those that are larger than 8 are exactly those where the not-chosen ones are smaller than 4, i.e. the inverse settings of the 2 role scenario. So also a 1/3 chance of reset.

The chance of 2 or 4 being chosen is thus 1/3*2/3 + 1/3*1/3*1/3*2/3+(1/3)^4*1/3*2/3+... or put differently, 2/9*sum( (1/9)^i) = 2/9*9/8=1/4.

Thus the chance of 3 roles is 50%.
pretty sure this is wrong. Should be 3/7 chance of 3 roles and 2/7 each of 2 and 4. As you say, thereís a 1/3 chance of a reset if 2 is rolled. That makes it 1.5x as likely that 3 is rolled. Sorry if I missed someone else pointing it out.

I don't think anybody did point out...

 Another way: the infinite sum for getting 2 should just be sum((2/9)^n), since the odds of not settling on a configuration on any attempt are 1/3*2/3 (1/3 failure on a 2 or a 4) while the odds of success on specifically 2 are 2/3*1/3, and that sums to (2/9)/(7/9) = 2/7.
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