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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130889 times)

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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1050 on: December 01, 2017, 06:33:49 pm »

Will get started on the rereads later.
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1051 on: December 02, 2017, 02:42:50 am »

OK, let the re reads begin. In attempt to keep it from being a novel, I am going to summarize by player and day. My plan is tomorrow to do vote history analysis and actually come up with some solid connections. For now, this is what I have:


IDPTG
Day 1:
- Does the whole set up inference thing for a while. Standard. On and off a bunch of people early. Raptor, me, and then sits with Andrew for a while (for lurking).
- Halfway through day really starts getting on Raptor about a number of reasons, not bad ones, but really doesn't want to let it go.
- Switches opinions on Andrew when the double wagon starts up. Eventually L-1s Dylan towards the end. Calls XXR out for skummy hammer.

Day 2:
- Starts up with more set up related role hunting stuff.
- Gets back on the Raptor train halfway through the day.
- Switches to Space and then is VLA through deadline.

Day 3:
- Starts with a similar point he made on D1 regarding read lists. States to think that there will be much to deduce from them later in the game again. Stuff about how it is crafted by skum (based on knowledge of alignments) vs paranoid by Town because of unknown information. While I agree with this theory, I have yet to find anything where he actually applies his own theory towards a read in this game. Doesn't really "tell me" anything, just kind of odd.
- Really does not like the Awaclus wagon. Could go for Space.
- Vote wise he pretty much sits on Andrew the whole day until deadline.

Day 4:
- Still early but points would be..
- Wants to do vig claim. IDK how to interperate interactions. It seems thought out, which could be from a skum or town perspective. The idea he brings forth of limiting to 50/50 with a counter claim really seems thought out. Additionally, pointing out the obvious flaw in a mass claim - being that it would be easy to fake claim - comes off at least to me as if he could know what skum has already so why get all that info out. On the other hand it could also be what he said, that is - it is easy to fake claim so there is no point in doing it because there is no reason to put merit into it.

All in all for IDPTG - #1 move around player on my Skum-To-Chum list. Was very strong reading him as Town before, and now with the Andrew votes and the start to Day 4 he has moved up to suspect #1 for me.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1052 on: December 02, 2017, 02:43:15 am »

Skumpy

Day 1:
- Usual Skumpy start. Now I am basing that off of all of one other game played with him, but he does the set up break down thing and block posts and etc.
- Literally accuses like... everyone at one point or another. Which to me comes off as towny. But then....
- Gets on XXR, then on Dylan/Andrew split, and then like 2 hours out does that whole weird unvote thing. Brings the 5-5 split to a 5 Andrew - 4 Dylan. Dunno what to make of this. We know now that Dylan was Town, so I think it looks mildly suspicious that he didn't go for voting Andrew instead of an unvote or just not changing at all. But more than anything it really comes off as towny, because if he were skum buddies with Andrew I think the options were to get on the bus for Andrew or to stay on Dylan... Unvoting all together just reeks of uncertainty, and imo uncertainty a lot of the time can = Town.

Day 2:
- Opens with the "10 Questions" bit. Lots of different angles but the one he pursues is the Andrew Town vs Andrew Skum and what does that mean scenario.
- Does a huge re read list - gives lurkers a lot of credit, unsure of pretty much everyone, votes for XXR in the end.
- #696 comes off as skummy to me. I don't really have like a reason for it, it just like reads oddly and overly crafted.
- Claims he would Neighbor Faust, give me a huge town read. This is directly after the post where he ends with defending not giving town cred to anyone.
- More town points given to me, but more importantly, in this middle bit of Day 2, he makes a case for E!. I find this important, because I think that LL switching out to Teproc caused a lot of confusion. Teproc landed on me, but also made a huge case for E!. It speaks town cred to Skumpy imo that he beat Teproc to the punch in regards to making a case vs E! (even though E! was town).
- Spends the end of the day kind of defending the LL/Teproc switch and saying it makes him not want to vote Teproc all that much. This goes on over quite some time to be fair, and then he eventually puts Teproc at L-1.
- Should be noted that 2 days in a row he was the first one to point out the vote count mistakes prior to the "accidental" hammer.

Day 3:
- Usual Skumpy start to day. Looks over the probabilities of roles, talks about the pros and cons of claims, etc.
- #868 stands out for the opening line where he talks about the uncertainty of "one skum being able to carry out multiple actions". while the rules are clearly stated in the set up, I do feel like Skum!Skumpy would of been aware of the situation.
- Starts to show like genuine frustration at the amount his unvote on day 1 was being looked into by everyone (specifically Space and myself).
- Another big re read post. Ends it by going back on the E! train.
- When the E! wagon gets to L-1 he unvotes. States he is still good with it (and of course he was the hammer in the end). Goes to GK in the interim.
- Starts up the whole Skum Team pairing thing while he is on GK and we are at a stall. Comes off as towny, trying to skum hunt when people are being quiet.
- Starts to make a case for Awaclus, then goes with the "more info to be gained from E!", and eventually hammers E!.

Day 4:
- Opens with the relaxed posts about Vig/Not Vig. Andrew is reading as skummy, and I see his point, but I don't want to disregard all the previous town reads I have on him from previous days because of this.
- And lastly, I think that I totally disagree with his recent post regarding the fact that he is still alive today. If anything I would of expected him to wake up alive today. I feel like Skum could use the string of odd vote patterns and responses to set him up quite well. That being said, he could also be skum and that is why he is alive, and the odd vote patterns are in fact actually skummy :P

All in all for Skumpy - I am just confused. He is like my definition of my middle man at this point. I can find good reasons and bad reasons for like all of his actions. When he talks he seems to genuinely try to be skum hunting the majority of the time, but when he votes, given the info we have now of flips, it seems extremely well calculated.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1053 on: December 02, 2017, 02:43:46 am »

Space

Day 1:
- Quiet as usual in the beginning.
- Votes for Andrew early on and sticks there for the day.
- Whole bit in the middle where they are fixated on how Andrew conducts themselves in game.
- Comment about getting myself, Skumpy, and XXR mixed up because of Twin Claim or whatever. I didn't read into this as much as some, but worth putting in here.
- Makes a side case for E!. Never votes off Andrew though.

Day 2:
- Usual probability breakdowns of potential roles and such.
- Skumpy calls Space out in regards to getting us mixed up and how it seems odd because of different play styles.
- Called out for not being "normal self". This is equated to not posting lots of information with confidence and etc. Space defends by dismissing it and saying that is not their style really and they tend to stick to the numbers.
- #706 - This feels like an extremely forced attempt to contribute something after being called out on not posting enough content. Additionally, I tend to find it skummy whenever any calls out people for thinking in the "if I were skum mindset". I have never quite understood that. I feel like thinking in the "if I were skum" mindset is one of the more effective ways of using WIFOM in this game. When people accuse others because of it, it just comes off as an easy out to me.
- Finishes with more summarized re reads. Points out potential flaw in Neighbor target claiming plan far too late for it to matter.
- Is not around at deadline and ends day not voting.

Day 3:
- #898 feels more like a Town!Space to me. Good content, good observations. Obv lots of time put into this read. Lists out not only who was on what wagon, but also at what position then switched on and off. TBH I saved it and posted to my QT so I could reference it in my own reads down the road.
- Puts E! at L-1
- Another good post regarding voting patterns right after the E! vote.
- Posts most recent reads in #956. All skum reads are currently dead.
- Gets on me and Skumpy for trying to create skum teams. TBF there was merit to their reasoning as it was an incomplete list.
- Gets on me for suggesting that someone that is not me re reads my skum pairings for the sake of being un bias. This came off as extremely out of character and overly aggressive for Space. Continues on to tell me not to waste town's time with requesting they read further into these things.
- Ends the day still voting for E!. Not willing to switch. Does not like the idea of an Awaclus lynch both based on play style and potential information gathered from their flip.

Day 4:
- Opens with my exact thoughts to the day which were "it is odd that Andrew is alive".
- Follows up with thoughts on claiming. Towny thoughts too imo. No rush in doing the vig claim, though it should be done. No need to potentially claim other roles because they are unknown etc etc.

All in all for Space - I have jumped around a bit in my read here. Null to start, skummy in the middle, but has consistently gone up and up in towniness with only minor suspicions for like 2 full game days now.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1054 on: December 02, 2017, 02:44:11 am »

Andrew

Day 1:
- Spends a lot of the beginning of the day giving people a hard time for their posts. Skumpy for block posting, Awaclus for being what I now to believe "just Awaclus", general skum hunting tactics of people. While it came off to me D1 as a little overly direct, I suppose being so is an effective measure of skum hunting in its own.
- When he speaks for most of the middle it is in regards to his play style and how people are taking his comments. Ends with the whole bit where he claims we are all voting for him for being overly harsh and doing the whole "it is no fun to get lynched Day 1 all the time" thing.
- Votes for me mid day for being "overly helpful" and then immediately states he does not think I am being helpful.
- Really really spends a lot of the day trying to wagon people on to me. It is unsuccessful and as the wagon builds on him, he switches his vote to Dylan.
- End of the day continually refuses to give a defense as to why he is town. States the only case against him is that he is "playing different" from other games and that shouldn't be held against him.
- Points out that he is at L-1, then like 5 posts later when asked to claim, after E! switches from Andrew to Dylan, responds with "normally people only claim at L-1"...
- Ends the day on the Dylan lynch.

Day 2:
- Not there at first and when he comes back he has the back and forth with Awaclus that ends in him "tagging out".
- Jumps on Skumpy's point of out Space's twin claim confusion and votes for Space.
- For the Neighbor target he picks me, which I found odd.
- Gives a brief skum to chum list and then votes for E!
- States that he would be OK with Teproc vote as well. Hour passes, where he is online, it is pointed out that there is a mis count, and then he "accidentally hammers" thinking he is voting Teproc to L-1. As Teproc flipped skum, I don't really know what to make of this, and as I mentioned after it happened, I am inclined to believe this was a genuine accident. I think.

Day 3:
- Starts with again another reached vote. This time for me based on things not seeming "genuine"... again.
- Then posts some blank stuff, followed by a E! read with a vote switch to E!
- Again, as his wagon picks up alongside E!'s he starts pummeling E! pretty hard. First for reads, then for role fishing.
- The mid day wagon drops off of L-1. Andrew continues to try to push for the E! lynch. Kind of a "why are we postponing the inevitable" vibe thing.
- Ends the day on the E! lynch.

Day 4:
-Again, opens with skum theory based on non-genuine/out of character post content. This time for Skumpy.


All in all for Andrew: OK so he is tied with IDPTG pretty much for my top pick. I don't want to go into details right now why he is #2 to IDPTG, but I will later in the day. His theme throughout the game seems to be targeting players not based on skummy actions but on ways players say things trying to spin them in a skummy way. Additionally, he disappears for large gaps, temporarily filled with scattered empty posts, throughout the game. Life is life, work, family, whatever, so that on its own is not skummy to me I guess. However, he does have this habit of coming back and steaming tons of actual posts specifically only when wagons seem to be picking up on him (see day 1 and day 3). I also, as previously stated, find it very odd that he is alive today.






So all that was a lot of words in a row. But essentially Skum to Chum =
IDPTG
Andrew
Space
Skumpy
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1055 on: December 02, 2017, 06:31:19 pm »

I'm liking the Swan posts, though I need to re-read actual words (as opposed to voting histories) in more detail to be sure I agree with his points.

Today has been shattering.. some of you can have a good laugh at me, but I hadn't been swimming in months before last weekend, and this weekend an hour doing lengths in the "medium speed" (as fast as I can go!) lane was enough to wipe me out for the rest of the day, when combined with walking home from the pool (~40 mins) and a 1.5-hour christmas carol rehearsal on the way :-P Tomorrow I'm hosting a party, so if I'm not posting by 10am forum time, I might not be on till really late (like early evening forum time), or Monday daytime.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1056 on: December 02, 2017, 07:21:13 pm »

I think the vig claiming here is fine, if they want to own up. I'm also fine with them holding off till Monday or so, if they want to observe how everyone else is interacting and force everyone to make reads and stuff, given that chances are the vig will be tonight's NK once they're outed. The benefit of an IC in this situation is in reducing the lynch pool, rather than leading town in a claim or other trust-based exercise, so I don't think having them revealed for more than a couple of days before the deadline buys us a lot, except for targeting town's reads a bit better. And this is the sort of stage in the game that I think is really hard as scum, because they've got to come up with decent and consisted arguments that don't incriminate themselves, so making them jump through all the hoops isn't actually a bad plan, much as it means extra homework for the rest of us.

Sorry, why are we waiting on the Vig claim if you think the Vig should claim? All that does is give scum extra time to decide if it's a good idea to fake claim. If scum is going to fake claim, I want as much time left in the day as possible to sort it out, not some 2-days-before-deadline scramble, especially given how slow the game is.

So yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and claim VT, and I think it's time the Vig steps forward because any more Vig shots is a bad idea. The game only continues if we lynch scum, so there'll be a 66% chance of missing on a random shot and, should you miss, it's a scum victory.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1057 on: December 02, 2017, 07:55:38 pm »

One benefit for me and the other townie of the Vig claiming: of the 3 people whose alignments are unknown, two are scum so any team of two is guaranteed to include scum. This assumes no counterclaim. So I really don't see any reason to delay this.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1058 on: December 02, 2017, 10:55:45 pm »

One benefit for me and the other townie of the Vig claiming: of the 3 people whose alignments are unknown, two are scum so any team of two is guaranteed to include scum. This assumes no counterclaim. So I really don't see any reason to delay this.

Not really because you're not an IC. So if/when the vig claims that still leaves a lynchpool of 4, barring a counterclaim of course.

Oh and I'm the vig by the way. Sorry for the sucking and all that.

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1059 on: December 02, 2017, 11:23:05 pm »

One benefit for me and the other townie of the Vig claiming: of the 3 people whose alignments are unknown, two are scum so any team of two is guaranteed to include scum. This assumes no counterclaim. So I really don't see any reason to delay this.

Not really because you're not an IC. So if/when the vig claims that still leaves a lynchpool of 4, barring a counterclaim of course.

Oh and I'm the vig by the way. Sorry for the sucking and all that.

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.

When you are back from your weekend, please elaborate on why Space.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1060 on: December 03, 2017, 12:10:44 am »

One benefit for me and the other townie of the Vig claiming: of the 3 people whose alignments are unknown, two are scum so any team of two is guaranteed to include scum. This assumes no counterclaim. So I really don't see any reason to delay this.

Not really because you're not an IC. So if/when the vig claims that still leaves a lynchpool of 4, barring a counterclaim of course.

I meant for the remaining townie who isn't the Vig. Given that you're the Vig and I'm not going to lynch myself, my lynch pool is now DatSwan, Skumpy, and Space. That's what I meant by a three person lynch pool. Yes, yours is still four, but everyone else's got smaller.

Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1061 on: December 03, 2017, 05:26:41 am »

Hey all. Wanted to apologize twice.

First, for lying and being slow these last couple days. I promise tomorrow, I'll put it all together.

Second, for my last post (or second-to-last). It was honest, but I don't wanna be known as Salty Skumpy. It was childish of me to get that defensive. Even if my head's lying in the guillotine today with the blade about to fall down and thwack me, I promise to at least make the effort to be more accepting of my fate and first loss.

One benefit for me and the other townie of the Vig claiming: of the 3 people whose alignments are unknown, two are scum so any team of two is guaranteed to include scum. This assumes no counterclaim. So I really don't see any reason to delay this.

Not really because you're not an IC. So if/when the vig claims that still leaves a lynchpool of 4, barring a counterclaim of course.

Oh and I'm the vig by the way. Sorry for the sucking and all that.

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.

I knew you were going to be vig. Just how I'd expect my luck to work out, both because Andrew was going for me and because Andrew disapproves of sheep, which is likely what I'll succumb into. But good to know my defense worked though! I'm still pleasantly amazed by how effective they are.

@your sucking: Well...yeah. Apology not totally accepted yet, but at least there's a 66% chance (as I know, anyways) that you've improved based on that post.

Will do my rereads tomorrow, and look more carefully through Swan's reads. Goal will be to knock out 1 of the 3 potential teams and guarantee a scum lynch vote. Also, because it's something else I keep forgetting to bring up: I'm now happy I didn't finish Skumpy's-(patented)-whatever-I-called-it-before since it was not going to produce a correct result.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1062 on: December 04, 2017, 12:40:40 pm »

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.

Huh.. I actually hadn't had you figured for the vig at all. Is anyone counterclaiming?

Lynching me would be a mistake, because I'm definitely townie. Right now, my gut says Skumpy, but I also have to do re-reading. I'm not free tonight, but I'll find some time in the next 24 hours.

Some slightly-advanced notice: I'm going to be VLA on a business trip from Wednesday to Friday. I'm out of the country, so I'm not even sure I'll have phone posting as a possibility, though both my hotels allegedly have wifi. This assumes you manage not to lynch me in the meantime, in which case the game will be over before I go.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1063 on: December 04, 2017, 03:45:56 pm »

First, for lying and being slow these last couple days. I promise tomorrow, I'll put it all together.

I lied again. T minus a couple hours, or something like that.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1064 on: December 04, 2017, 04:08:15 pm »

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.

Huh.. I actually hadn't had you figured for the vig at all. Is anyone counterclaiming?

Lynching me would be a mistake, because I'm definitely townie. Right now, my gut says Skumpy, but I also have to do re-reading. I'm not free tonight, but I'll find some time in the next 24 hours.

Some slightly-advanced notice: I'm going to be VLA on a business trip from Wednesday to Friday. I'm out of the country, so I'm not even sure I'll have phone posting as a possibility, though both my hotels allegedly have wifi. This assumes you manage not to lynch me in the meantime, in which case the game will be over before I go.

This? This just makes me want to lynch you.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1065 on: December 04, 2017, 04:14:59 pm »

Also, I can't read any of you guys whatsoever so that's cool. Right now I'd like to lynch Space but I still want to reread. No time this weekend though.

Huh.. I actually hadn't had you figured for the vig at all. Is anyone counterclaiming?

Lynching me would be a mistake, because I'm definitely townie. Right now, my gut says Skumpy, but I also have to do re-reading. I'm not free tonight, but I'll find some time in the next 24 hours.

Some slightly-advanced notice: I'm going to be VLA on a business trip from Wednesday to Friday. I'm out of the country, so I'm not even sure I'll have phone posting as a possibility, though both my hotels allegedly have wifi. This assumes you manage not to lynch me in the meantime, in which case the game will be over before I go.


1) Everyone has posted since the claim. If town were going to counterclaim, they would have done it. The only reason to wait would be to sow confusion, which only helps scum.

2) The rest of the post is "I don't have time and I'm going to be VLA, but don't lynch me because you'll lose if you do." The game ends if town is lynched. We all know that. The fact that you feel the need to reiterate it...it doesn't read genuine to me. Why would town say that? Why not just give your VLA notice?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1066 on: December 04, 2017, 04:16:27 pm »

First post, vote for LL (Teproc):

Good morning all!

Vote: LL Great to be in a game with you again!

How's things? Feeling scummy this time round?

An early LL read:

LL is being quiet mostly. His talking at corss-purposes to Awaclus about the weak neighbourizer make me think they're not a scum team.

Some early LL "reads"

well, I can see why people are voting for me, but what is really strange is that some of them stated scumread on another person and then voted for me, weird. I think Dylan is scum here and I want to vote: Dylan as I don't remember if I am still doing that. I would even say DatSwan is one of the partners.

Skumpy is really giving me towny vibes as well as faust, though in the case of faust I will indeed think twice. Space is as always null on D1. I am sorry I was not very active, I struggle to do things D1, like, always.

Also I think that IDPTG have some bias thinking I am scum in every game :) by the way, I am really sorry about your lynch in Lost, I needed to survive but I still felt bad.

I prefer Dylan or DatSwan lynch here I think.

^This could point to DatSwan being town. He says Space is null.

More reads from Space:

In that case, who else is on your "not-definitely-town" list?

Everyone other than me. But at your end of it I guess Swanraptorpy and maybe e is creeping that way. Dylan, faust and Galz are in middle ground. IDP and LL are at the townier end of things. I can't do anything about reading Awaclus for now, and I want to see more from gkrieg before judging.

I think e is a problem for me because I'm beginning to feel he's maybe a bit scummy, but that usually happens if he's being a town with wildly different ideas than I have.

^IDP and LL are their towniest.

Sidenote:

OK so with the deadline move, if we play down to the wire I will be at work. I will still have limited access, but all the same here is this FWIW:

Towny:
XXR
Galz
Skumpy

Null/Towny:
Faust
GK

Null/Skummy:
Awaclus
Dylan
Space

Skummy:
Andrew
IDPTG
LL
E!


And, with those re considerations, plus I just don't see me coming off as skummy right now so I kind of don't get it - vote:Andrew
I don't want it to come off as OMGUS, even though I know it will. I just believe a Town!Andrew vote at this point on someone more likely to be lynched. Vote for me just feels off. I don't really like the Dylan lynch anymore either.

I think if we lynch Space and they're scum then DatSwan is cleared.

That's it for D1.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1067 on: December 04, 2017, 04:25:54 pm »

LL starting the day (again) with a Space vote:

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all :P

Space reads:

I was going to try to do a targeted re-read of everyone tonight, but I'm only through the first four in the list so far, and I'm feeling too tired to focus on more already, so I'll put what I've got here. Of these four, Skumpy feels the most scummy, but I was going through in sign-up order, so I haven't reached Andrew yet, and I'm still feeling the wagon there from D1.

e (46 posts): Lots of empty early stuff, but really active at the deadline. Wants to push IDPTG a lot. Joins the Dylan mislynch quite close to deadline when people are already starting not to be available for the night. Tentative townread. Though his most recent post says he thinks I'm probably town, so maybe I subconsciously got buddied, though it's not like I actually remembered that at the start of my re-read!

Skumpy (44 posts): I still find the "If I were skum" mindset a bit worrying. Also, what's with all that "don't want to vote Swan for reasons I'm not talking about" stuff? Wow, he writes long posts.. I think I've mostly only skimmed things of his before. Very few townies in his reads post at #245, and he misses out IDP and me completely for some reason. Very big on over-explaining his votes: could be a scum thing or could just be a verbosity thing. Made a bit of a show of being willing to switch to Andrew at the end of D1, but actually voting and staying on Dylan. Why is his top scum read at #484 a secret? The unvote at #490 was extra-super-unhelpful because it took a potential vote out of the game at a time when I and probably others on my side of the Atlantic were struggling to be present and about to have to call it a night. Comes into D2 with fishy-looking distributions over the cost numbers for the combinations of possible town roles. Admist at #672 that he hasn't given a lot of towncred... could be something possible scum-buddies mentioned in the night, though.

LL/Teproc (44 posts): Hard to get a read on LL. He seems genuine enough, but equally I could convince myself there's a little hint of the LL I saw when he and I were scum together, so I'm not townreading him as hard as I feel like I otherwise could. Let's see what Teproc says.

DatSwan (63 posts): Lots of early setup speculation founded on something incorrect. Then a bunch of middle posts that seem focused on Faust and Raptor kind of oddly. He gets more helpful towards the deadline, with town-to-scum lists that don't miss people off, and do offer plenty at the town end of the spectrum. He has a confusing number of posts where he seems to be misquoting or something.

PPE 1: Cool, now both of e's two most recent posts support me :-)

^Hedgy on Teproc.

Teproc calling Space town:

Space (3): gkrieg, Swan, ANdrew
Andrew (3): IDPTG, Space, Skumpy
LL (2): Galz, Dylan
Dylan (2): faust, LL
faust (2): Raptor, Awaclus
IDPTG (1): e

Seems pretty safe to bet at least one scum has 2 votes on them.
Is there any reason for this assumption other than basic probability?

Most of it is the basic probability yes (though I have no idea what it actually is, if Space wants to have fun with that), but also what the game felt like rereading it. It fels like there was a certain tension: I think the game would have felt completely dead if all wagons were on town. Harder to tell rereading of course.

Re: e, I think I'm pretty good at reading e, and he usually gives me towntells, especially lately. You'll recall that I had a pretty strong town read on him all game in M108, and here he is giving me nothing. Even on day 2, he just basically feels like he's done nothing this game, and I think that's more of a scum!e trait. Town!e, even if he's not active, is impactful when he posts. He just hasn't been here.

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

vote: Swan

In other news, ANdrew, Skumpy and Space are town. Raptor and Awaclus are complete cyphers, faust is somewhere between scummy and null, gkrieg is kinda townie.

Who am I missing ? Right, IDPTG. Townie, I think, but not overly so.

That's D2.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1068 on: December 04, 2017, 04:37:46 pm »

Final vote counts:

thread looooocked

D1 Final Vote count


AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1): Skumpy

with 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch. day 1 ends wednesday, november 8th at 21:00 forum time, in like 0 seconds

mod notes
  • phone

Vote count 2.6

SpaceAnemone (1): IDontPlayThisGame
Teproc (6*): faust, gkrieg13, DatSwan, 2.71828..., Skumpy, AndrewisFTTW
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus
2.71828... (2): Teproc, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1) : SpaceAnemone

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. day 2 ends sunday, november 19th at 00:00 forum time, in a few minutes

mod notes
  • andrew has the option to rescind the hammer vote since i did the vote count erroneously. if he doesn't within uh 5 minutes it'll just count.
  • note the first mod quote: please put votes where it's easy for me to find them!
mod quotes:
Schadd, DatSwan is on Teproc (I think)
noted. for the future: i missed datswan's vote because it was at the end of a line in the middle of a big post. to make it easier for me to find your votes, please put them ideally at the start of a line and at the start or end of a post.

D3 Final Vote Count

AndrewisFTTW (2): Awaclus, IDontPlayThisGame
2.71828... (5): DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW, SpaceAnemone, gkrieg13, Skumpy
Awaclus (1): 2.71828...

not voting (0) :

with 8 alive, it took 5 to lynch. lmao it said "day 2 ends..." the whole time

The D2 final vote is interesting. The only not confirmed town on the Teproc lynch are DatSwan and Skumpy. I think one of them is likely to be scum and then that would leave Space or IDPTG. I think we should start with an off wagon lynch, so I want to reread IDPTG as well.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1069 on: December 04, 2017, 04:41:53 pm »

Quote fail. This did not mean to be quoted:

The D2 final vote is interesting. The only not confirmed town on the Teproc lynch are DatSwan and Skumpy. I think one of them is likely to be scum and then that would leave Space or IDPTG. I think we should start with an off wagon lynch, so I want to reread IDPTG as well.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1070 on: December 04, 2017, 06:04:24 pm »

Scum!Space had a similar AtE post at the end of D4 in NM10 (which was also the second to last day. D4 ended in a no-lynch and D5 ended with Space's lynch).

I feel best about no lynching today and committing to lynching Space if I'm alive the next day. So if I don't die tonight, I'm voting Space tomorrow.
Well since you want to no lynch and SA doesn't want to vote for themselves, I think we have to no lynch.
Do you feel good about lynching today?
It's fine, doesn't really matter to me.

Gah! Seriously people, you're not even trying! :-(

Are either of you actually going to post any cases, or just sleepwalk through this and end up as mafia-food? Or whatever it is scums want the bodies for...

Coincidentally, Andrew was the mod for that game.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1071 on: December 04, 2017, 06:07:01 pm »

Where is Space using AtE here?
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1072 on: December 04, 2017, 06:08:27 pm »

Where is Space using AtE here?

In this game or that one? I also might be using the phrase incorrectly.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1073 on: December 04, 2017, 06:18:57 pm »

Basically, I equate Space's repeated "if you vote me, the game ends" with that post's "mafia-food" bit. Whether that's AtE is up for debate.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1074 on: December 04, 2017, 06:30:30 pm »

It's not an appeal to emotion, it's just a statement of fact that it's lazy to try to cast me as scum when I've been just too busy to post a lot.

I think the posting I've had time for has been on-point at least to some extent. My trawling of the voting records at least showed up seemingly correctly that Andrew is townie in D3. I thought that was compelling enough that I was suspicious that scum kept him alive. Further consideration tells me he's also more likely than the average townie to be alive now given that he's been the source of two town kills himself and was never going to be the vig target.

Anyway, more thoughts incoming.
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