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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130852 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #975 on: November 27, 2017, 11:58:55 am »

@skumpy and @Swan, if you're going to go through pairings and look at how likely they are to be the one true scum-pair left, you really have to be a lot more systematic and organised about it, or at least present your ramblings as something other than sensible elimination.

I mean, I do agree that having a set of likely third partners is nice when lynching a second scum. Ideally, we want to look at every possible trio that contains Teproc, assign a likelihood to each of his possible pairs of buddies, then marginalize to see which single player has the highest chance of being in a pairing, and go for the lynch on that one. But that only works if you're willing to consider all 21 pairs from your personal perspective, not just the 11 from Skumpy's post at #958. (He only posted e-gkrieg, then the 10 pairs not including himself, e or gkrieg).

I can do it however iplease thank very much :)
But also yeah didn’t realize list was in finished until i was done filling it out and then it was time for bed.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #976 on: November 27, 2017, 12:02:05 pm »

Space/DatSwan - As before, gonna keep it brief on mine. D1 we were both on Andrew. Depending on what alliance Andrew is, this could be either skummy or not skummy. D2 I was the only one on the Teproc wagon, pushing it for most the day. I guess that is how Space!Swan would play it. Since it only makes sense if Andrew is also Town, I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more.

You're trying too hard to look helpful. How about being helpful instead? "Someone who isn't me should look into this more" -- if you're town, you want town to spend its limited resources on actively finding scum, not waste time evaluating possibilities that you and I both know are dead ends.


Finding Town and finding skum are both important to town, not a waste of time to suggest Town players analyze s situation.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

gkrieg13

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #977 on: November 27, 2017, 12:19:37 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #978 on: November 27, 2017, 12:55:31 pm »

Space/DatSwan - As before, gonna keep it brief on mine. D1 we were both on Andrew. Depending on what alliance Andrew is, this could be either skummy or not skummy. D2 I was the only one on the Teproc wagon, pushing it for most the day. I guess that is how Space!Swan would play it. Since it only makes sense if Andrew is also Town, I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more.

You're trying too hard to look helpful. How about being helpful instead? "Someone who isn't me should look into this more" -- if you're town, you want town to spend its limited resources on actively finding scum, not waste time evaluating possibilities that you and I both know are dead ends.


Finding Town and finding skum are both important to town, not a waste of time to suggest Town players analyze s situation.

Huh? You're literally telling people that they should spend time working out whether you and I are the remaining two scums, when you must know for a fact that it can't possibly be the case, because either you're scum and therefore know I'm not, or you're town, and therefore know for certain that not both of us are scums.

People are posting things like "I'll get to this tomorrow" or generally not having a lot of time for this game, so what motivation is there for you to encourage them to look at us as a pair, rather than looking over pairings you have some belief could in any way possibly be the scum-pair?
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #979 on: November 27, 2017, 01:04:56 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #980 on: November 27, 2017, 01:08:09 pm »

Space, one problem I have with your D1 snapshot is that you use Teproc instead of LaLight. Despite occupying the same slot in this game, scum!LaLight almost certainly plays differently than scum!Teproc and analyzing LaLight's D1 through Teproc's meta can only lead to problems.

Yeah, I agree that it's better to remember where one ended and the other began. My formatting there is just because of a limitation of the current implementation of my vote-counter: I didn't design it to handle people subbing in/out, but I did have to spend time considering how to make it handle player aliases comfortably, so I've basically just told it that "LaLight" is now a variant spelling of "Teproc" and it's happy.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

gkrieg13

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #981 on: November 27, 2017, 01:21:18 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.

What I am saying is that gives scum a lot of information over who will be lynched if someone flips scum, and it is wayyyy too early to be talking about entire scumteams at this point.  It also gives scum an opportunity to pair people together to try to line up bad lynches.  I think you want to save your time and just do targeted rereads and look at interactions, instead of trying to exhaustively look at every single pair of scumteams, which tells scum who they should kill.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #982 on: November 27, 2017, 02:35:00 pm »

I agree with gkrieg. The only reason I call scum teams is because I think it is a fun thing to do. I have yet to actually be completely right about any sort of prediction about scum teams though. Maybe this will be that magical game where I actually call the right team....
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #983 on: November 27, 2017, 03:14:44 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.

What I am saying is that gives scum a lot of information over who will be lynched if someone flips scum, and it is wayyyy too early to be talking about entire scumteams at this point.  It also gives scum an opportunity to pair people together to try to line up bad lynches.  I think you want to save your time and just do targeted rereads and look at interactions, instead of trying to exhaustively look at every single pair of scumteams, which tells scum who they should kill.

I agree with this, it's not worth it right now. Besides, we have (had?) a great lynch candidate today! e!
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #984 on: November 27, 2017, 03:56:35 pm »

Behind. Responding as I go.

@skumpy and @Swan, if you're going to go through pairings and look at how likely they are to be the one true scum-pair left, you really have to be a lot more systematic and organised about it, or at least present your ramblings as something other than sensible elimination.

I mean, I do agree that having a set of likely third partners is nice when lynching a second scum. Ideally, we want to look at every possible trio that contains Teproc, assign a likelihood to each of his possible pairs of buddies, then marginalize to see which single player has the highest chance of being in a pairing, and go for the lynch on that one. But that only works if you're willing to consider all 21 pairs from your personal perspective, not just the 11 from Skumpy's post at #958. (He only posted e-gkrieg, then the 10 pairs not including himself, e or gkrieg).

Not sure what 'something other than sensible eliimination' entails.
I'm not going to actually finish this because
a) time. It's going to take a lot of work to present solid cases against all 10 pairs, which I'm not willing or have access to at this point
b) I got overzealous, I don't think I can get rid of all 10. I got eager because there were a bunch that seemed easy to get rid of (such as Awaclus/Andrew), but there are a bunch that it's going to be a stretch to get rid of.

My first (rather successful!) attempt was #1154 in M105. I took the 10 potential teams of 3 from a group of 5 that excluded myself, the IC, and 2 unknowns I wanted to isolate, and tried to show none made sense. What I was trying to do with that was avoid getting shutout my first time playing, and make a lynch pool of 2 that would guarantee 1 correct lynch on the next 2 days. But since I'm not going to be finishing it, I agree that the next best thing is to eliminate as many teams as possible and lynch the greatest common denominator. That is something I think I can manage at least some of. For instance, Awaclus/Andrew reminds me of Andrew's arguing semantics, and I don't think it's a bluffed argument. I don't know Awaclus' history with tunnel bussing, but I would imagine it's low. And as I alluded to earlier, I don't see why scum!Andrew stays off the Teproc wagon only to join another wagon against scum!e, and then flip to the other, so Andrew/2.7 seems unlikely as well.

@skumpy. What do you mean Teproc stayed far away from Andrew?  Isn’t that what you do as partners?  What do you expect partners to do in mafia?

Usually stay away, but I wouldn't call it a truth universally acknowledged. And I'd expect at least some interaction between 2 scum somewhere. But what I was saying was: if youre going to make a case against Andrew, I think you should include a case for the third partner that tries to finish the puzzle, which includes a D1 featuring 1 correct wagon that at least 1 scum did not bus. And then we'll see if it explains everything.

I see your point, but that’s not always how it goes. I don’t like to call scum teams too early because then people discount the team because of the third teammate. Also scum then knows who I think the third one is which gives them a lot of information. So I won’t name a third person.

I held back the one key reason why I wanted the third person: if Andrew is scum, then who could possibly be the partner, based on the fact that a lot of Andrew teams are unlikely? In my brief thinking, without much rereading admittedly, I felt the most likely partner for scum!Andrew....is you! (and maybe IDPTG, which sadly ruins the dramatic emphasis).


Now that I'm seeing Space vs. World, I'm teamSpace. It's D3, with a successful lynch behind us. That's more than enough information to knock out quite a few possibilities. It doesn't have to narrow all the way down to a correct pair, or even a pool of two as I once planned, but it gives probabilities to lynches, which is helpful. Will it err sometimes and a scumteam will figure out how to disguise themselves. Sure. But if it's accurate, say, 60% of the time...I'd take a 60% winrate any day of the week. I guess I'm a progressive when it comes to mafia strategy.

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.

What I am saying is that gives scum a lot of information over who will be lynched if someone flips scum, and it is wayyyy too early to be talking about entire scumteams at this point.  It also gives scum an opportunity to pair people together to try to line up bad lynches.  I think you want to save your time and just do targeted rereads and look at interactions, instead of trying to exhaustively look at every single pair of scumteams, which tells scum who they should kill.

...except there's a Vig with IC potential still alive. And maybe more (Doc/Neo).


2ish days left. Ok with voting 2.7, not ok with Andrew until someone makes a solid, all-inclusive case.

Vote: Awaclus
I'm done giving this a pass. There's gain even he's town with regards to above-enumerated-interactons-list. Is that a terrible perspective on D3? Probably! But people talk and I'm gullible and I believe them. I wasn't feeling them before...now I am starting to sense some marionette strings. And I do not appreciate it. Gut still tells me a scum's under the radar.
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

2.71828.....

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #985 on: November 27, 2017, 03:57:43 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.

What I am saying is that gives scum a lot of information over who will be lynched if someone flips scum, and it is wayyyy too early to be talking about entire scumteams at this point.  It also gives scum an opportunity to pair people together to try to line up bad lynches.  I think you want to save your time and just do targeted rereads and look at interactions, instead of trying to exhaustively look at every single pair of scumteams, which tells scum who they should kill.

I agree with this, it's not worth it right now. Besides, we have (had?) a great lynch candidate today! e!

Had is the better word there. Ever since he became an active part of the discussion he has proven his towniness over and over.

We should look at someone like, say, awaclus.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #986 on: November 27, 2017, 03:58:16 pm »

Vote: Awaclus
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #987 on: November 27, 2017, 04:03:44 pm »

Vote: Awaclus
I'm done giving this a pass. There's gain even he's town with regards to above-enumerated-interactons-list. Is that a terrible perspective on D3? Probably! But people talk and I'm gullible and I believe them. I wasn't feeling them before...now I am starting to sense some marionette strings. And I do not appreciate it. Gut still tells me a scum's under the radar.

Had is the better word there. Ever since he became an active part of the discussion he has proven his towniness over and over.

We should look at someone like, say, awaclus.


Vote: Awaclus

The face I'm making now features squinting eyes, a mouth moved upwards in a half smirk, a more-exposed-than-usual chin thanks to a tucked lower lip, a deep breath/sign through my nose, and I wonder if I just made a really bad decision.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #988 on: November 27, 2017, 04:12:37 pm »

I agree with gkrieg. The only reason I call scum teams is because I think it is a fun thing to do. I have yet to actually be completely right about any sort of prediction about scum teams though. Maybe this will be that magical game where I actually call the right team....

I mean the point of skum team creation would be to find the lcd player that matches with your reads and target that player.... I don't think anyone is actually going for the curry half line shot at this point...
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #989 on: November 27, 2017, 04:13:03 pm »

Vote: Awaclus
I'm done giving this a pass. There's gain even he's town with regards to above-enumerated-interactons-list. Is that a terrible perspective on D3? Probably! But people talk and I'm gullible and I believe them. I wasn't feeling them before...now I am starting to sense some marionette strings. And I do not appreciate it. Gut still tells me a scum's under the radar.

Had is the better word there. Ever since he became an active part of the discussion he has proven his towniness over and over.

We should look at someone like, say, awaclus.


Vote: Awaclus

The face I'm making now features squinting eyes, a mouth moved upwards in a half smirk, a more-exposed-than-usual chin thanks to a tucked lower lip, a deep breath/sign through my nose, and I wonder if I just made a really bad decision.

I have been voting awaclus all game. You know this. I temporarily went to space to see if anyone would join me there. I see your vote on awaclus and go back to him. Like I said earlier, I will lynch either of them today
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #990 on: November 27, 2017, 04:14:10 pm »

I agree with gkrieg. The only reason I call scum teams is because I think it is a fun thing to do. I have yet to actually be completely right about any sort of prediction about scum teams though. Maybe this will be that magical game where I actually call the right team....

I mean the point of skum team creation would be to find the lcd player that matches with your reads and target that player.... I don't think anyone is actually going for the curry half line shot at this point...

Curry's half court shots are way more accurate than my reads
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #991 on: November 27, 2017, 04:21:51 pm »

Vote: Awaclus
I'm done giving this a pass. There's gain even he's town with regards to above-enumerated-interactons-list. Is that a terrible perspective on D3? Probably! But people talk and I'm gullible and I believe them. I wasn't feeling them before...now I am starting to sense some marionette strings. And I do not appreciate it. Gut still tells me a scum's under the radar.

Had is the better word there. Ever since he became an active part of the discussion he has proven his towniness over and over.

We should look at someone like, say, awaclus.


Vote: Awaclus

The face I'm making now features squinting eyes, a mouth moved upwards in a half smirk, a more-exposed-than-usual chin thanks to a tucked lower lip, a deep breath/sign through my nose, and I wonder if I just made a really bad decision.

I have been voting awaclus all game. You know this. I temporarily went to space to see if anyone would join me there. I see your vote on awaclus and go back to him. Like I said earlier, I will lynch either of them today

I guess I did know that, but my recency bias kicked into gear when I see my vote for a scummy player is immediately followed by another scummy player's vote. That's rarely a good sign.

I agree with gkrieg. The only reason I call scum teams is because I think it is a fun thing to do. I have yet to actually be completely right about any sort of prediction about scum teams though. Maybe this will be that magical game where I actually call the right team....

I mean the point of skum team creation would be to find the lcd player that matches with your reads and target that player.... I don't think anyone is actually going for the curry half line shot at this point...

I was gonna comment on your basketball terminology, but I have a quota of being rude to people once a game each (I'm sure I've violated that by now though with somebody here). How do you feel about 2.7's case against Space and/or Awaclus?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #992 on: November 27, 2017, 04:38:54 pm »

Does anyone want to even comment on what I am saying about talking about specific pairings???

I kind of did.. I said that I think marginalizing over all possible pairs containing a player is actually what would be good. Your example about disregarding a scum pair based on the identity of the third person kind of missed the point, because you were worrying about thinkinking player A might not be scum just because pair A-B wasn't good, but really we'd have to consider A likely to be scum in A-B, A-C, A-D etc too in order for A to be a good lynch. Enumerating the rest of those pairings is exactly what Skumpy and DatSwan were doing particularly badly, so I agree with you in that limited respect, but I don't agree that it's a bad approach in general.

I think probably time to stop telling people they are doing a bad job hunting and start doing some hunting yourself :)

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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #993 on: November 27, 2017, 08:20:34 pm »

I could see voting Space. I really don't like this Awaclus wagon. As far as I can tell, he's just being Awaclus. I've yet to see a compelling reason as to why this is scum!Awaclus and not town!Awaclus.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #994 on: November 27, 2017, 09:03:45 pm »

I could see voting Space. I really don't like this Awaclus wagon. As far as I can tell, he's just being Awaclus. I've yet to see a compelling reason as to why this is scum!Awaclus and not town!Awaclus.


Can you expand on why Space?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #995 on: November 28, 2017, 03:00:35 am »

I thought we had 2 days left. I was wrong. Lynch is in 22 hours. It feels like everybody at this point is really apathetic, myself included.

My top picks remain 2.7 and Awaclus, and I don't think another wagon is going to get big enough to rival those.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #996 on: November 28, 2017, 03:39:58 am »

Ok here is the thing - there was like a majority of a day window when E was at L-1 today when Awaclus could of voted off Andrew onto E and hammered. We are 6-2 right now. If skum could of hammered a Town E in that spot and bring the game to 3-2 to start the next day i feel like they would of.

This forces me to give quite a few points to the three players off of E! At the time, as well to think the most likely scenario is skum E!

This comes off as a case against E!, which i guess it is, but it is intended as a case for Town Awaclus.

I will be around for the majority of the day until deadline, but let it be known i am not seeing a huge Awaclus case at this point.

We also need to accept that if we lynch incorrectly we move to win or go home so hedging the section towards a player we don’t lean that much from worries me slightly.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #997 on: November 28, 2017, 04:33:31 am »

Ok here is the thing - there was like a majority of a day window when E was at L-1 today when Awaclus could of voted off Andrew onto E and hammered. We are 6-2 right now. If skum could of hammered a Town E in that spot and bring the game to 3-2 to start the next day i feel like they would of.

This forces me to give quite a few points to the three players off of E! At the time, as well to think the most likely scenario is skum E!

This comes off as a case against E!, which i guess it is, but it is intended as a case for Town Awaclus.

I will be around for the majority of the day until deadline, but let it be known i am not seeing a huge Awaclus case at this point.

We also need to accept that if we lynch incorrectly we move to win or go home so hedging the section towards a player we don’t lean that much from worries me slightly.

But town wouldn't hammer needlessly halfway though a day no matter how convinced they are (or at least I wouldn't, as we all know), so why would scum? That puts more suspicion on themselves for no reason. And where is the 3-2 coming from? The vig might not shoot (or get roleblocked) or they might shoot scum.

There's also the possibility that 2.7 is teamed with somebody not voting him. There's also the possibility that there's already 2 scum on his wagon. A lot of wine in this game, I keep reminding myself. Honestly, there probably is something in what you're saying that gives us a clue to the alignments...but I can't do more analysis of that right now. I'll also be around for deadline, but I don't know how much time I'll have to make good cases.

I do like the point that lynching 2.7 gives more info than lynching Awaclus, regardless of alignment, but if I'm alive for a final lynch, I don't want my decision to come down to "Is everybody besides Awaclus town or no?" because I know that if I can make a case against anybody no matter how flimsy, I'd probably vote them over Awaclus. There's gain to be had from getting rid of a coin flip. And more importantly, there's not much of a case for him being town besides him not voting someone whose alignment we don't know.



Btw if anyone needs a distraction from the affairs of mafia and life in general: somewhere in my response above, a delectable treat is embedded (after you concatenate all the words together).
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #998 on: November 28, 2017, 09:21:04 am »

If think we learn quite a lot from lynching awaclus
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #999 on: November 28, 2017, 09:22:08 am »

If think we learn quite a lot from lynching awaclus

Yeah, we learn that you have spent the whole game pushing a town lynch.
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