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[schadd]

Vote count 3.2

AndrewisFTTW (3): Awaclus, gkrieg13, IDontPlayThisGame
2.71828... (4): DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW, Skumpy, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): 2.71828...

not voting (0) :

with 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. day 2 ends wednesday, november 29th at 01:00 forum time.

mod notes

• it is no longer thanksgiving

[2.71828.....]

But seriously. All the wagons are terrible.

People should reread space

[Skumpy]

Unvote

Gonna do some more thinking right now. Pre-that, 2.7 is still a top pick. But we don't need to lynch with 4 days left.

[SpaceAnemone]

Voting snapshots for D1:

First three-person wagon of the game. Would Teproc jump onto Dylan right after Andrew if they're both scum? There's more of this Andrew-Teproc joint voting in D2, as well.
#165
DatSwan (1): Dylan32
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): Galzria
AndrewisFTTW (2): Awaclus, IDontPlayThisGame
Teproc (1): SpaceAnemone
Dylan32 (3): faust, AndrewisFTTW, Teproc
SpaceAnemone (1): gkrieg13
faust (1): Xxraptorslayer96
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828.....
2.71828..... (1): Skumpy
Not Voting (1): DatSwan


Now I've got a three-person wagon. Given the remaining distribution and people's flips, it's reasonably to assume at least one scum is on me. I don't think Andrew is scum, and I think gkrieg is more likely than DatSwan.
#283
Dylan32 (2): faust, Teproc
SpaceAnemone (3): gkrieg13, DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW
faust (2): Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828.....
AndrewisFTTW (2): IDontPlayThisGame, SpaceAnemone
Teproc (2): Galzria, Dylan32
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): Skumpy


Would Swan have jumped onto the deflating Dylan train as scum here right behind his scum-buddy?
#331
Dylan32 (3): faust, Teproc, DatSwan
SpaceAnemone (2): gkrieg13, AndrewisFTTW
faust (2): Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828.....
Teproc (2): Galzria, Dylan32
AndrewisFTTW (2): SpaceAnemone, Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): IDontPlayThisGame


Here's a point where Skumpy has just switched over from Andrew. The Dylan-wagon unknowns are Andrew and Skumpy. The Andrew-wagon unknowns are Swan, Awaclus and gkrieg. The not-on-either-wagon people are e and IDP.
#470
Dylan32 (5): faust, Teproc, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, Skumpy
faust (2): Xxraptorslayer96, Dylan32
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828.....
AndrewisFTTW (4): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): IDontPlayThisGame

End of D1. The most likely thing here is that there's one additional scum on Dylan (Andrew, e, IDP), and one on Andrew (Swan Awaclus, gkrieg). Given that e has pretty much been vig-hunting at IDP, and that Andrew seems more town that not, I think it's really likely that e is the other Dylan-wagon scum. 
#545
Dylan32 (7): faust, Teproc, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828....., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96
AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Not Voting (1): Skumpy



Voting snapshots for D2:

This is afew votes into the day. Doesn't looke partnery for IDP.
#621
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Teproc, IDontPlayThisGame
Awaclus (2): 2.71828....., faust
Not Voting (7): Skumpy, DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW, Xxraptorslayer96, gkrieg13, Awaclus, SpaceAnemone

Andrew follows Teproc onto me, and the two of them stay there for a while. This isn't a normal scum pattern of voting.
#666
Awaclus (1): 2.71828.....
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): IDontPlayThisGame
SpaceAnemone (2): Teproc, AndrewisFTTW
Teproc (2): faust, DatSwan
Not Voting (5): Skumpy, Xxraptorslayer96, gkrieg13, Awaclus, SpaceAnemone

This one is close to the lynch, where 3 has joined the Teproc wagon. It might point to gkrieg and e not being partners, because that's quite early (L-2) for both partners to be on the Teproc wagon. (I also think it makes gkrieg-Swan less likely, too).
#810
Teproc (4): faust, gkrieg13, DatSwan, 2.71828.....
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): Skumpy
SpaceAnemone (1): IDontPlayThisGame
2.71828..... (2): Teproc, AndrewisFTTW
Not Voting (2): SpaceAnemone, Xxraptorslayer96

[SpaceAnemone]

@schadd, can I post voting snapshots like that with colour next time? I know some mods are iffy about it so I wanted to be sure before doing so. They're much easier to interpret with all the green and red, though...

green and red are no problem. just don't use my luscious 21B35F

[SpaceAnemone]

Anyway, people I'm not feeling scummy at are Andrew, Swan, Skumpy and IDP for a combination of reads and weak voting evidence. I'm not interested in voting for any of those four for today. However, I should definitely still re-evaluate them, particularly Skumpy and IDP, in the light of whatever flip we get next.

Slightly scummy people are gkrieg and Awaclus, in terms of not having made useful town contributions combined with the fact their voting histories complemented/avoided our known scum's voting behaviour, meaning that they look like somewhat more likely partners.

The most scummy is e, for his positioning on many of the wagons, for his lack of cases on other players (other than his vague "hey, look at them" stuff), for his game-long lurkiness, recent role-fishing, and because trying to lump me in with Awaclus as his top pair of scum candidates actually sounds a lot like desperate scum flailing in the direction of popular mislynches.

[Skumpy]

@Space: Your vote tracker keeps missing my vote for 2.7 on day 2, just so you know. Also, the unlikely is likely to happen at some point; Scum not being together in the first 3 votes on someone is something that I know is not the case all the time. Twice is a heck of a coincidence in the case of Andrew, I wouldn't say it would clear DatSwan or IDPTG though.

@gkrieg: When you make your case against Andrew, be sure to include who you think his partner is. As a reminder, Andrew was nearly lynched D1. Teproc stayed as far away from Andrew as possible, so what was the partner up to?

@2.7 You liked my scumpary....then you decided that everyone on the Teproc wagon was town? Because that's what I keep coming back to. I think DatSwan is towny for the timing, I think Andrew is towny just overall. I think I'm towny, but not totally sure yet. Which leaves you and gkrieg. But gkrieg's town for that one post against LaLight?

I don't know if I fully trust Space after accusing me and backing away when it was clear that's not a wagon that's gonna happen, but I do think the 2.7/gkrieg team is a strong possibility. Count me in on the team that doesn't want Andrew lynched today. Awaclus and Space...possibly, but not right now. Though getting Awaclus off the table opens the door for a lot of better reading regardless of the flip, that's a lynch I know I'm never going to be against (me and 50 others I'm sure). IDPTG, I haven't forgotten the slip. Using 'None' as a 'last PR' seems to be a stretch. I don't have a lot to use against him though. Same goes for Swan.


Vote: gkrieg, 2.7 still in the running. The Space Case is convincing and 2.7 has not had a very towny D3. But I do wonder if I'm being hoodwinked by a good argument, because scum's not going to say something obviously wrong to convince me. In the end....yeah, I'd vote 2.7 closer to the deadline. gkrieg now because the wagon's smaller and because I do think scum wants to have a prime and select bus position on Teproc.

[2.71828.....]

My D3 has been incredibly townie

[Skumpy]

Since everybody's figured out my alignment by now (*golf claps*)...

...It's time for another round of Skumpy's-(patented)-Elimination-Wheel-of-Game! For all you newcomers, I pick a pair, prove the nonexistence of any other possible team, and narrow our lynch pool down to two people, at least one of whom is scum! I have a track of record of 1/1, with calling out both scum the first time!

Today's love match is: 2.7 and gkrieg!

Who else could the scum team be? It's Teproc and ....

Awaclus/Space
Awaclus/IDPTG
Awaclus/DatSwan
Awaclus/Andrew
Space/IDPTG
Space/DatSwan
Space/Andrew
IDPTG/DatSwan
IDPTG/Andrew
DatSwan/Andrew

(I actually didn't think this through all the way, and I don't have time to finish now  )

Let's knock out a couple right now!
If it's Awaclus/IDPTG....what, no bussing at all? C'mon, how do you go through 2.5 days without voting for a partnered Awaclus or Teproc?
If it's Awaclus/Space...see Awaclus/IDPTG. Though LL did vote for Space once. Maybe slightly more likely.

So 8 left. I will revisit this and continue and make better cases. Contributions are welcome if you don't clear yourself.


PPE: eh. I've seen townier D3's. I could be wrong!

[gkrieg13]

Can people explain to me how my voting history is scummy at all?

[IDontPlayThisGame]

IDPTG, I haven't forgotten the slip. Using 'None' as a 'last PR' seems to be a stretch.

When I wrote the initial message, I'd intended Vig as the "last PR" but went with "none" in the explanation as it fit the point totals for scum PRs.

Space, one problem I have with your D1 snapshot is that you use Teproc instead of LaLight. Despite occupying the same slot in this game, scum!LaLight almost certainly plays differently than scum!Teproc and analyzing LaLight's D1 through Teproc's meta can only lead to problems.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

By which I mean, "why would LaLight do this?", "why would Teproc do this?", and "why would scum do this?" are different enough questions that I don't think they should be lumped together.

[Skumpy]

Can people explain to me how my voting history is scummy at all?

Do you think LL or Teproc was bussed at all (not "Yeah, I'll vote for him" or a final Andrew-style-hammer, voting for them before it was cool)?

[2.71828.....]

Can people explain to me how my voting history is scummy at all?

Do you think LL or Teproc was bussed at all (not "Yeah, I'll vote for him" or a final Andrew-style-hammer, voting for them before it was cool)?

Do you think an absent partner comes back from lurking and posts a summary post about everyone and lands on their partner with a vote that was critical in enabling the teproc lynch?

Like, without gkrieg that lynch doesn't happen. It is WAY too easy for scum to come back and basically ignore their partner, vote town, get a mislynch.

While gkrieg may have not had the most fabulous game of mafia ever, he isn't scum

[2.71828.....]

The most scummy is e, for (1) his positioning on many of the wagons, for 2 his lack of cases on other players (other than his vague "hey, look at them" stuff), for 3 his game-long lurkiness, 4 recent role-fishing, and 5 because trying to lump me in with Awaclus as his top pair of scum candidates actually sounds a lot like desperate scum flailing in the direction of popular mislynches.

1) voting history is your thing, yeah, but sometimes your raw science approach to it is lacking. Also, your snapshot of votes and the conclusions are questionable at best. You take the data and draw the conclusions you want to draw, not the conclusions that are sitting right in front of you. For example, the last bit on D2 - instead of saying that at L-2 it is unlikely 2 scum are on the wagon, you say gkrieg and e aren't partners. You went in biased against me and gkrieg, and guess what you found! Amazing!

2) they can't all be the best cases

3) nothing I can do about it now. Except keep posting

4) this is a playstyle thing more than anything. I post some stuff that comes to mind and I get in trouble for it. Not the first time, won't be the last.

5) I am scum because I come to a conclusion that includes you as scum. That's called....wait for it.....OMGUS.

[2.71828.....]

Can people explain to me how my voting history is scummy at all?

Do you think LL or Teproc was bussed at all (not "Yeah, I'll vote for him" or a final Andrew-style-hammer, voting for them before it was cool)?

I think it is a very real possibility that they were not bussed. I don't want to rule that scenario completely out at least. Don't pigeon hole yourself

[Swowl]

promise I am still here guys/girls. I will be more at it this evening and back to normal as well. Had lots of family and such in town this weekend.

[gkrieg13]

Can people explain to me how my voting history is scummy at all?

Do you think LL or Teproc was bussed at all (not "Yeah, I'll vote for him" or a final Andrew-style-hammer, voting for them before it was cool)?

I h ent gone back and looked, but if I were lurking scum, like e said I wouldn’t have parked a very well thought out vote on someone I historically read well and not come back to switch my vote after other people had seen the light. You want to put flimsy cases on your partners as scum. I also don’t really bus as scum, and I don’t think there was much of a point to bus here.

Not having looked at it, it’s hard to say if he was bussed. How would a lynch play out in the case scum bussed and they didn’t bus?

[gkrieg13]

@skumpy. What do you mean Teproc stayed far away from Andrew?  Isn’t that what you do as partners?  What do you expect partners to do in mafia?

[Skumpy]

@skumpy. What do you mean Teproc stayed far away from Andrew?  Isn’t that what you do as partners?  What do you expect partners to do in mafia?

Usually stay away, but I wouldn't call it a truth universally acknowledged. And I'd expect at least some interaction between 2 scum somewhere. But what I was saying was: if youre going to make a case against Andrew, I think you should include a case for the third partner that tries to finish the puzzle, which includes a D1 featuring 1 correct wagon that at least 1 scum did not bus. And then we'll see if it explains everything.

[gkrieg13]

@skumpy. What do you mean Teproc stayed far away from Andrew?  Isn’t that what you do as partners?  What do you expect partners to do in mafia?

Usually stay away, but I wouldn't call it a truth universally acknowledged. And I'd expect at least some interaction between 2 scum somewhere. But what I was saying was: if youre going to make a case against Andrew, I think you should include a case for the third partner that tries to finish the puzzle, which includes a D1 featuring 1 correct wagon that at least 1 scum did not bus. And then we'll see if it explains everything.

I see your point, but that’s not always how it goes. I don’t like to call scum teams too early because then people discount the team because of the third teammate. Also scum then knows who I think the third one is which gives them a lot of information. So I won’t name a third person.

[Swowl]

Since everybody's figured out my alignment by now (*golf claps*)...

...It's time for another round of Skumpy's-(patented)-Elimination-Wheel-of-Game! For all you newcomers, I pick a pair, prove the nonexistence of any other possible team, and narrow our lynch pool down to two people, at least one of whom is scum! I have a track of record of 1/1, with calling out both scum the first time!

Today's love match is: 2.7 and gkrieg!

Who else could the scum team be? It's Teproc and ....

Awaclus/Space
Awaclus/IDPTG
Awaclus/DatSwan
Awaclus/Andrew
Space/IDPTG
Space/DatSwan
Space/Andrew
IDPTG/DatSwan
IDPTG/Andrew
DatSwan/Andrew

(I actually didn't think this through all the way, and I don't have time to finish now  )

Let's knock out a couple right now!
If it's Awaclus/IDPTG....what, no bussing at all? C'mon, how do you go through 2.5 days without voting for a partnered Awaclus or Teproc?
If it's Awaclus/Space...see Awaclus/IDPTG. Though LL did vote for Space once. Maybe slightly more likely.

So 8 left. I will revisit this and continue and make better cases. Contributions are welcome if you don't clear yourself.


PPE: eh. I've seen townier D3's. I could be wrong!

My input on the potential matchups:

Awaclus/Space - Voting history would dictate that this is unlikely. As well as content.  They avoid each other completely to double up on Andrew at the end of the Day 1. If Andrew is Town this looks fishy, if Andrew is Skum this looks fishy. I don't think a team of these two players would do this. And then there is D2... towards the end it was quite clear we were gonna get our guy with Teproc. In this situation, why wouldn't one of them switch over?

Awaclus/IDPTG - To Skumpy's point, I think it unlikely that both players managed to be off the bus of of ALL potential team mates over the course of 2+ days. That being said, they were split end of D1. If Andrew is town or skum this would be the play to make imo.

Awaclus/DatSwan - Not gonna say much as I am obviously bias. D1 we were one the same no lynch, D2 we were on different people.

Awaclus/Andrew - If they are both skum then they both knew Teproc was skum. Niether of them wanted to switch to him D2 for Town points? I find that un-likely. Also, Awaclus has been on Andrew like forevvveeerrrrr. I feel like it is too blatant of a push, D1 included, for this duo to make sense.

Space/IDPTG - Split on D1, see above for how I see that. Also, neither bus on D2 which again is odd. Don't think this one is likely.

Space/DatSwan - As before, gonna keep it brief on mine. D1 we were both on Andrew. Depending on what alliance Andrew is, this could be either skummy or not skummy. D2 I was the only one on the Teproc wagon, pushing it for most the day. I guess that is how Space!Swan would play it. Since it only makes sense if Andrew is also Town, I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more.

Space/Andrew - From a vote perspective this one makes the most sense to me so far. Space is on Andrew D1. Assuming Andrew is Skum, this would look good down the road if he were to be flipped. D2 Space is off Teproc and Andrew is the hammer. Big town point gain for the hammer normally, but it was pretty clear Teproc was going down so I would keep an eye on this thought.

IDPTG/DatSwan - Split on D1. I am on Teproc D2 and IDPTG is off. In a world where we know the skum team, making Andrew Town, this would make sense.

IDPTG/Andrew - This would mean all three were on the Dylan wagon D1. Normally I would rule it out right there, and I still find it unlikely, but with the whole "what was Andrew supposed to do" bit I guess maybe. Still down there though. D2 IDPTG was off Teproc and Andrew was the hammer. I guess that adds up, but D1 still is a pretty big disqualifier.

DatSwan/Andrew - I mean, I just don't see this being a thing in anyone's head, including mine. We were on each other. I was on Andrew all of D1 and he was on Dylan if not on me. Then, D2 I was Teproc and he ended up on Teproc. Based on interactions I feel far more towny of Andrew all together than I did originally.

Also adding in:

Skumpy/Awaclus - Not really much here. Separate wagons all the time. Not much interaction.

Skumpy/IDPTG - IDPTG switches onto dylan as Skumpy switches to no vote. Don't really see that making sense from a skum perspective. D2 they are both off of Teproc, which again I feel is unlikely no Skum on that wagon.

Skumpy/Space - Split on D1, both off on D2. Same logic as above.

Skumpy/Andrew - Don't understand why Skum!Skumpy would vote off of Dylan D1. Andrew hammer D2 skumpy on the off vote. D1 doesn't make sense and imo outweighs D2 add up.


Gonna go through and re read E! and IDPTG to finish this off, but that is what I have FWIW.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Sorry, busy weekend. I'll get back into this tomorrow.

[SpaceAnemone]

@skumpy and @Swan, if you're going to go through pairings and look at how likely they are to be the one true scum-pair left, you really have to be a lot more systematic and organised about it, or at least present your ramblings as something other than sensible elimination.

I mean, I do agree that having a set of likely third partners is nice when lynching a second scum. Ideally, we want to look at every possible trio that contains Teproc, assign a likelihood to each of his possible pairs of buddies, then marginalize to see which single player has the highest chance of being in a pairing, and go for the lynch on that one. But that only works if you're willing to consider all 21 pairs from your personal perspective, not just the 11 from Skumpy's post at #958. (He only posted e-gkrieg, then the 10 pairs not including himself, e or gkrieg).

[SpaceAnemone]

Space/DatSwan - As before, gonna keep it brief on mine. D1 we were both on Andrew. Depending on what alliance Andrew is, this could be either skummy or not skummy. D2 I was the only one on the Teproc wagon, pushing it for most the day. I guess that is how Space!Swan would play it. Since it only makes sense if Andrew is also Town, I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more.

You're trying too hard to look helpful. How about being helpful instead? "Someone who isn't me should look into this more" -- if you're town, you want town to spend its limited resources on actively finding scum, not waste time evaluating possibilities that you and I both know are dead ends.

Space/Andrew - From a vote perspective this one makes the most sense to me so far. Space is on Andrew D1. Assuming Andrew is Skum, this would look good down the road if he were to be flipped. D2 Space is off Teproc and Andrew is the hammer. Big town point gain for the hammer normally, but it was pretty clear Teproc was going down so I would keep an eye on this thought.

Okay, unlike the pairing above, at least here you've proven that you can reason about a scum team without worrying about whether any 4th players might also be scum. I can assure you I'm town, and I actually think Andrew is town now too, having looked at the votes after the Teproc flip. I've already posted my thoughts on that. But seriously, go and look at a pairing like e-Awaclus and tell me that's less likely in your opinion.