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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130879 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #875 on: November 21, 2017, 05:20:16 pm »

Vote: DatSwan

I'm gonna reread later but that whole thing from DatSwan doesn't really seem genuine to me.


please explain how that doesn't seem genuine? saying "well this sucks, how to do go from here?" isn't a genuine town perspective? Are you saying you think it is pro town to not try to come up with a plan to hunt skum?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #876 on: November 21, 2017, 05:23:08 pm »

Does anyone have a theory to use this info to our advantage? Based on the info presented to us I’m having trouble coming up with a plan. Any chance of two ICs in the hizouse?

Huh? What are you talking about? What plan? Where are you getting ICs from?

... yeah while you are re reading re read the set up andrew.... Neighborizor = 2 ICs...


In fairness, disregard this. I see the point about how with no other claimed roles Neighborizor could be a fake claim so it is not IC.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #877 on: November 21, 2017, 05:33:24 pm »

Vote: DatSwan

I'm gonna reread later but that whole thing from DatSwan doesn't really seem genuine to me.


please explain how that doesn't seem genuine? saying "well this sucks, how to do go from here?" isn't a genuine town perspective? Are you saying you think it is pro town to not try to come up with a plan to hunt skum?

No Awaclus that's not what I'm saying. What I am saying is that is something I'd expect scum to say after last night. But I'm also saying I need to reread interactions and such for a proper case.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #878 on: November 21, 2017, 06:27:44 pm »

Vote: DatSwan

I'm gonna reread later but that whole thing from DatSwan doesn't really seem genuine to me.


please explain how that doesn't seem genuine? saying "well this sucks, how to do go from here?" isn't a genuine town perspective? Are you saying you think it is pro town to not try to come up with a plan to hunt skum?

No Awaclus that's not what I'm saying. What I am saying is that is something I'd expect scum to say after last night. But I'm also saying I need to reread interactions and such for a proper case.

I just find it odd that out of all the seemingly pointless one liners, that everyone inevitably opens the day with - I am the only one you chose to call out.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #879 on: November 21, 2017, 07:08:22 pm »

Vote: Andrew
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #880 on: November 21, 2017, 07:38:42 pm »

Vote: Andrew

Good. Now disappear for the rest of day and don't change your vote just like you've been doing.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #881 on: November 22, 2017, 01:41:20 am »

Vote: Andrew

Good. Now disappear for the rest of day and don't change your vote just like you've been doing.

Vote: Awaclus
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #882 on: November 22, 2017, 02:25:04 am »

Final Count Day 1:

AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32 (Town)
Dylan32 (7): AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame faust (Town), Galzria (Town), Xxraptorslayer96 (Town), LaLight/Teproc (Skum)
not voting (1): Skumpy


Final Count Day 2:

SpaceAnemone (1): IDontPlayThisGame
Teproc (6): gkrieg13, DatSwan, 2.71828..., Skumpy, AndrewisFTTW, Faust (Town)
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus
2.71828... (2): Teproc (Skum), Xxraptorslayer96 (Town)
not voting (1) : SpaceAnemone


1) Only three remaining people to be on the train not lynching Town or lynching Skum have been GK, Skumpy and myself.
2) Awaclus was off of Dylan and off for Teproc (on Andrew)
3) Space was off of Dylan and off of Teproc (no vote)
4) Andrew was on Dylan (self preservation) and on Teproc.
5) E! was on Dylan and on Teproc
6) IDPTG was on Dylan and off of Teproc

D1 lynch is going to, most of the time at least, have both Skum and Town on the wagon. There is currently 1 confirmed Skum on that wagon already - Teproc. The other alive players on that wagon consist of Andrew, E!, and IDPTG.
Since we do not know at this point if Andrew is Skum or Town, we cannot gain much simply based on this. I suppose numbers would suggest that if Andrew is Skum then the last Skum probably would not also be on the Dylan Wagon. If Andrew is Town, then we really know nothing because they would just be sitting there happy with either lynch.

D2 lynch helps us put some more pieces together. My thought process by player here is that if you were Skum and on the D1 mis-lynch, you probably would want to make sure you were off the mis-lynch D2, or on the Bus, if one presented itself. This would bring to light two individuals - E! and IDPTG.

I am torn at this point. On one hand, I give E! some credit for being on Teproc yesterday because it was similar to Andrew on Day 1 (self preservation), but also the back and forth between him and Teproc would be fantastically constructed if they were both Skum.
Whereas with IDPTG, he kind of just parked his vote on Space, which isn't bad as we don't know their alignment at this point, but also follows the same logic in a way.

In the end I think my lynch pool going into today consists of E!, Andrew, Skumpy, IDPTG (in that order).

E!- Vote counts plus the aforementioned perfectness of the Teproc vs E! bits on D2

Andrew - Mainly because if he is Skum it all just makes perfect sense from a Vote Count perspective. Also, from my perspective, since I know I am Town, it really appears like he is trying to create random cases for me at every available point. Also, yesterdays hammer, while I could believe to be an accident given the circumstances, was quite odd.

Skumpy - Pulling off the vote on D1 is weird. Not really skummy and not really not, just weird. What was skummy was the last minute switch on D2. I mean he made a case for it and all, which is actually moderately believeable, but in the end if it is Skum!Skumpy (lol) he would be sure to be on that bus I think.

IDPTG - Pretty much just on the list because of Vote Counts. I would have to have someone make a pretty solid case over the 3 others for him to be an option today, but in the spirit of sticking to the theme of my re read, he belongs on the list.

It should also be mentioned that if my logic follows, and either Skumpy, IDPTG, or E! do ever flip as Skum, I think that it is very likely that we find the last Skum among them.

For now I will...

Vote: E!

(sorry about placement last time, don't want to make that mistake again)
PPE1
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #883 on: November 22, 2017, 02:32:38 am »

Also, upon my read through I went back looking at things under the knowledge that Faust was tracker and most likely had a result from N1. What I found was that he most likely Tracked LL N1, got the results he got, and then acted accordingly. However, I also think there may be more to find so if anyone else wants to take a crack at it please share.
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #884 on: November 22, 2017, 04:59:14 am »

Sorry, don't have time to delve into this now. I'll post something with more gusto in the next day or so. In the meantime, I can respond to more accusations, my favorite part of mafia.


Skumpy - Pulling off the vote on D1 is weird. Not really skummy and not really not, just weird. What was skummy was the last minute switch on D2. I mean he made a case for it and all, which is actually moderately believeable, but in the end if it is Skum!Skumpy (lol) he would be sure to be on that bus I think.

There are some questionable beliefs in this post (which I only skimmed; again, don't have time to disect this piece by piece now). But why you lumped me and gkrieg into the same category of not voting Dylan and voting Teproc, then put me in a lynchpool and not him, I don't know.

"Pulling off D1 vote is weird": People keep going after me for not voting when I was taking my time to decide who I'd rather lynch. I get that my name sticks out like a sore thumb on those votecounts, but there's seriously nothing to see there, please move along.

"Last minute switch": The vote was 4-4. I switch onto scum, basically forcing the lynch to go that way. Skummy Skumpy probably would love to be on that bus, you're right...but Skummy Skumpy would be driving it allllll night long.       

"a case for it and all, which is actually moderately believeable": I cannot begin to tell you how much this makes me want to strangle you (which franky is physically impossible, I understand, but I can dream). If I made a case that was 'actually moderately believable', I have no idea how you choose to trust me the rest of the time.

"Skum!Skumpy (lol): I have many self-given nicknames. You'll all figure out your favorites at some point.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #885 on: November 22, 2017, 07:37:26 am »

vote: Andrew
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #886 on: November 22, 2017, 09:53:10 am »

I missed the last deadline due to timezone/thinking we maybe had 24 hours more. Now I'm struggling for time, but I should get an hour or so later on for f.dsing, so please nobody prod me just yet...
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #887 on: November 22, 2017, 02:33:09 pm »

Vote: e

For now.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #888 on: November 22, 2017, 03:03:39 pm »

Teproc "reads"

Space (3): gkrieg, Swan, ANdrew
Andrew (3): IDPTG, Space, Skumpy
LL (2): Galz, Dylan
Dylan (2): faust, LL
faust (2): Raptor, Awaclus
IDPTG (1): e

Seems pretty safe to bet at least one scum has 2 votes on them.
Is there any reason for this assumption other than basic probability?

Most of it is the basic probability yes (though I have no idea what it actually is, if Space wants to have fun with that), but also what the game felt like rereading it. It fels like there was a certain tension: I think the game would have felt completely dead if all wagons were on town. Harder to tell rereading of course.

Re: e, I think I'm pretty good at reading e, and he usually gives me towntells, especially lately. You'll recall that I had a pretty strong town read on him all game in M108, and here he is giving me nothing. Even on day 2, he just basically feels like he's done nothing this game, and I think that's more of a scum!e trait. Town!e, even if he's not active, is impactful when he posts. He just hasn't been here.

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

vote: Swan

In other news, ANdrew, Skumpy and Space are town. Raptor and Awaclus are complete cyphers, faust is somewhere between scummy and null, gkrieg is kinda townie.

Who am I missing ? Right, IDPTG. Townie, I think, but not overly so.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #889 on: November 22, 2017, 03:07:27 pm »

Looking kinda towny for gkrieg.

I think LaLight was way scummier than e.

Definitely leaving my vote on Teproc.

DatSwan can you quote the interactions between Teproc and e you were talking about? I couldn't find them while skimming.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #890 on: November 22, 2017, 03:50:35 pm »

assuming 1 scum couldn't kill and RB different people. Although even if they can't, I'm realizing now that it actually does make a difference if they go for the vig since they don't get another shot off.

Scum knows the last PR in the game, so that's not great.

Scumslip? Or last-PR slip? Because we don't know if there's a 'last PR'.

I kind of like this level of scum-hunting from Skumpy. Though it is actually more likely that we do have an additional PR than that we don't, looking at the numbers.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #891 on: November 22, 2017, 04:29:51 pm »

So all in all it was just more of a thought regarding that he came into the game probably pretty certain he was a high priority lynch target. He kind of breadcrumbs "E! is skum" around here and there without ever really pushing him until the heat is on him. I think this would be a good plan if they were skum partners. Sounds like a read I suppose, but here are just some examples:

I'm not scumreading e for being inactive. I'm scumreading him for not being impactful.

-Pointing out he is skum reading E!. If E! is skum it will make him look good on re reads-


Re: e, I think I'm pretty good at reading e, and he usually gives me towntells, especially lately. You'll recall that I had a pretty strong town read on him all game in M108, and here he is giving me nothing. Even on day 2, he just basically feels like he's done nothing this game, and I think that's more of a scum!e trait. Town!e, even if he's not active, is impactful when he posts. He just hasn't been here.

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.


- Saying he thinks E! is skum again, but then ultimately voting for me instead. -

- #712 is his huge opening post, in which he clarifies he thinks E! is the skummiest. Next post finishes the re read and then he changes that to E! second, and me skummiest -


TBH I still need to look deeper into the D1 LL/E! interactions to see if the merit holds up, but most content came from Teproc so I looked at D2 first. But there you go. Not a lot, there are some more one liners in there somewhere, but this is the jist of what I was talking about.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (i really don't know, what time it wos)
« Reply #892 on: November 22, 2017, 04:38:37 pm »

assuming 1 scum couldn't kill and RB different people. Although even if they can't, I'm realizing now that it actually does make a difference if they go for the vig since they don't get another shot off.

Scum knows the last PR in the game, so that's not great.

Scumslip? Or last-PR slip? Because we don't know if there's a 'last PR'.

I kind of like this level of scum-hunting from Skumpy. Though it is actually more likely that we do have an additional PR than that we don't, looking at the numbers.

So just saying, and if I am disagreed with here please feel free to correct me, but I think the value of us keeping our PRs unknown at this point outweighs knowing which PRs Skum has in their possession. Since RB is the active one that we want to be aware of and we already know it exists, we probably should deter from pointing anything out regarding our Town PRs until we absolutely have to.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #893 on: November 22, 2017, 05:29:50 pm »

vote: Andrew for now. More on this later.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #894 on: November 22, 2017, 06:51:24 pm »

Thanks DatSwan. And I think him saying you're the scummiest person in the game means there's a good chance your town. What do you think of those Teproc quotes IDPTG?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #895 on: November 22, 2017, 06:54:03 pm »

vote: Andrew

How about some thoughts/reads/general scumhunting Teproc-related stuff?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #896 on: November 22, 2017, 07:15:55 pm »

What do you think of those Teproc quotes IDPTG?

Not really sure. I think reads lists from scum are more WIFOM than anything and that's not a rabbit hole I feel like jumping down.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #897 on: November 22, 2017, 07:25:17 pm »

Wagon analysis thoughts -- to help complement my other reads, rather than to replace them exactly. I hope this doesn't confuse people, but I'm just going to use current player names, even when talking about things that subbed-out players actually did. (My vote tracker makes this invisible to me).

2.71828.....: Boring D1 without being on a multi-person wagon till moving to Dylan right at the end. Spends most of D2 on Awaclus before moving to the Teproc wagon in 4th position.

Skumpy: Moves around a bit D1, but no big wagons till joining Andrew. Then shfts to Dylan before doing that annoying unvoting thing right before deadline, and ends the day not voting. Comfortably on Raptor for most of D2, before moving to Teproc in 5th place.

DatSwan: Spends a while not voting in D1, and then is one of the three on my wagon. Though he's also the first to leave and shifts to Dylan briefly before settling into Andrew. On Teprod early D2 behind faust, but switches to Awaclus for a little while before erjoining teh Teproc wagon behind gkrieg (3rd place overall).

AndrewisFTTW: Joins faust's town-on-town Dylan wagon, and is followed by Teproc (LL) till Andrew unvotes. Joins in 3rd place on my wagon, then spends time on Swan before ending up on the Dylan mislynch, presumably in self-preservation. There's a fair bit of time in D2 when my wagon consists of just Teproc and Andrew, which actually makes Andrew look a little more townie, since it seems less likely for two scum to sit on one town player like that. Towards the end of D2, Andrew is again right behind Teproc on a wagon, this time on e. I'm reasonably confident that that's a pretty unlikely pattern for Andrew to be scum.

gkrieg13: spends a lot of D1 at the head of my wagon, before finally joining the Andrew wagon, where he stays till the end of the day. Joins the Teproc wagon in 3rd place, and stays there for most of D2 in second place after Raptor moves away. I feel like that could be a really comfy spot for a bus, especially combined with the boring voting the rest of the time.

Awaclus: His D1 consists of Andrew, faust, and Andrew again, and his D2 is just Andrew.

IDontPlayThisGame: Raptor, Swan, Andrew, More Raptor, and then finally the Dylan mislynch D1. Spent the latter parts of D2 voting for me. I'm not feeling like his patterns are particularly scummy, though, especially since Teproc was already voting for me when he joined.

From that stuff, I think IDP and Andrew (and maybe even Skumpy) are less likely to be scum than I might have thought before, and I also think that I should pay closer attention to gkrieg, e and Swan. Awaclus is just doing his own thing as normal.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #898 on: November 22, 2017, 07:29:12 pm »

What do you think of those Teproc quotes IDPTG?

Not really sure. I think reads lists from scum are more WIFOM than anything and that's not a rabbit hole I feel like jumping down.

I'm not talking about just his reads. What about the way he talks about e?
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #899 on: November 22, 2017, 07:50:22 pm »

What do you think of those Teproc quotes IDPTG?

Not really sure. I think reads lists from scum are more WIFOM than anything and that's not a rabbit hole I feel like jumping down.

I'm not talking about just his reads. What about the way he talks about e?

What, the bit where he explains his read of e?
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