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[schadd]

https://youtu.be/HZ4uzD_hLds?t=26s

it is the springtime of my lovin
the second season i am to know
you are the sunlight in my growin
so little warmth i've felt before
it isn't hard to feel me glowin
i watch the fire, that grew so low, oh

Vote count 2.4

Xxraptorslayer96 (1): Skumpy
Awaclus (2): 2.71828..., DatSwan
SpaceAnemone (3): Teproc, AndrewisFTTW, IDontPlayThisGame
Teproc (2): faust, gkrieg13
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus

not voting (2) : SpaceAnemone, Xxraptorslayer96

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. day 2 ends sunday, november 19th at 00:00 forum time.

mod notes

• idptg will be VLA tomorrow - sunday

mod quotes:

deadline extended by 24hr again.

why?

replacement

[AndrewisFTTW]

First choice: DatSwan
Second choice: gkrieg

What's the point of this again?

So that if the neighborizer dies, we know who they targeted.

And why is that important?

It's a weak Neigborizer, so if they target scum, they die.

Ah.

But you don't have to participate, now everyone knows it's not you anyway...

Or maybe it is and I'm trying to throw everyone off my trail! #mafia #wifom #blessed

[Teproc]

Ok, day 2 now

Swan doing a bunch of NK analysis. It's fine. I don't think it's clear enough who Galz targeted to learn much, and he's a pretty vanilla kill target.

Skumpy's big post is pretty townie, trying to do what  worked in M105.

faust is prickly, which is generally townie right ?

#590: e finally doing stuff. Though an Awaclus vote is pretty meh.

#598: Space being super hedgy, which I think is scummy for them.

I have no idea what my vocal range or whatever is btw.

Swan asking why Galz was killed feels strange, given that he was in a scumteam that almost killed Galz for typical reasons (ie not PR-related) in M108.

#609: faust following e on Awaclus, which I find surprising.

#612: e describing why an Awaclus lynch is a coin toss (with weighted odds for whatever the ratio is at that point in the game, you get what I mean). But finds him scummy for his response. His response to what ? e ? To your vote on him ?

Andrew is being funny again. I actually think it's relevant, he seems really relaxed, which I think means town. His work is also better directed than other people's (read: Swan) early D2.

Yep, more good stuff from Andrew (in the #670s), though I don't agree with much of it.

#684: Swan votes for Awaclus, which, alright, I guess he might get a pass for not having played with Awaclus before, but still. It's not that I particularly think Awaclus is town (again, a weighted coinflip), it's just that if he is, he's a veeeery nice place to have your vote as scum.

gkrieg is very Lost-like, which I thought was scummy then but it was apparently not, so I guess it's townie.

#692: e trying to bribe me with a "X is town" post. I see what you're doing, e.

And this is where I replace in.

[Teproc]

Space (3): gkrieg, Swan, ANdrew
Andrew (3): IDPTG, Space, Skumpy
LL (2): Galz, Dylan
Dylan (2): faust, LL
faust (2): Raptor, Awaclus
IDPTG (1): e

Seems pretty safe to bet at least one scum has 2 votes on them.

Is there any reason for this assumption other than basic probability?

Most of it is the basic probability yes (though I have no idea what it actually is, if Space wants to have fun with that), but also what the game felt like rereading it. It fels like there was a certain tension: I think the game would have felt completely dead if all wagons were on town. Harder to tell rereading of course.

Re: e, I think I'm pretty good at reading e, and he usually gives me towntells, especially lately. You'll recall that I had a pretty strong town read on him all game in M108, and here he is giving me nothing. Even on day 2, he just basically feels like he's done nothing this game, and I think that's more of a scum!e trait. Town!e, even if he's not active, is impactful when he posts. He just hasn't been here.

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

vote: Swan

In other news, ANdrew, Skumpy and Space are town. Raptor and Awaclus are complete cyphers, faust is somewhere between scummy and null, gkrieg is kinda townie.

Who am I missing ? Right, IDPTG. Townie, I think, but not overly so.

[Teproc]

Oh, the Neighborizer thing.

First choice: gkrieg
Second choice: faust

[AndrewisFTTW]

How do you go from this:

#598: Space being super hedgy, which I think is scummy for them.

To this:

In other news, ANdrew, Skumpy and Space are town.

?

[Teproc]

Space posted other stuff in between, that was just regaular townie constructive stuff, I guess I forgot to note it, but it reminded me that I had already seen that from them on D1, and judging by M108, Space is all hedge all the time. Here, they hedged that one post, but had more decisive reads in not even a quarter of the posts they had in M108.

[Teproc]

Reread IDP expecting to want to vote him through inactivity, but I'm not feeling that right now.
Skumpy is entertaining and new, so he can stay.
Galz and faust are fine as they are.
Awaclus is being Awaclusy.
Could quite happily vote Andrew; his contributions don't have much content. I tend to scum-read him anyway, though.
LL is being quiet mostly. His talking at corss-purposes to Awaclus about the weak neighbourizer make me think they're not a scum team.
Swan's fakable townslip then weird breakdown of not-the-setup are probably more from inattention than scumminess for now, I think. I was scum with him last time I played, and he doesn't feel quite the same.
Dylan isn't here. I usually like Dylan and his playstyle, so I'm happy not lynching him yet.
Raptor needs to put in some personal text somewhere that lets us isolate his posts for targeted re-reads!
chairs is lurky as usual. THe part where he's voting to lynch me is less good. Not averse to returning the favour, but there are better targets for now.
e is talkative. Would be nice if he engaged with discussions more. But the same complaint could be made about me too.

I'll vote: Andrew for tonight.

Just a post like this one (early day 1) has more reads than a whole day of scum!Spacein M108.

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.

Where can I see you genuinely scumhunt?

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.

As a result, I eventually (correctly) identified Galzria as someone I didn't want to lynch.

I'm not sure that's exactly the kind of community-spirited scum-hunting that most people think of when describing particular behaviour as scum-hunting.

I kind of feel like you're being more of a parody of yourself here than you often are. But you're an easy-to-push mislynch target, too, so I won't jump on the wagon yet.

Also, in my head I'm getting really quite mixed up between Skumpy and Raptor, and also Swan a bit, because they're all quite new to me, and also some of them have the Galz "twin claim" thing. I still haven't quite understood what a twin claim actually means.

I really don't believe this. There is nothing at all similar about us, and I would not be surprised to see a scum team of Space/{Raptor,DatSwan} (or both).

Meh. You don't have to believe it for it to be true. You're the people who're new to me here, which is the major thing you have in common. You're largely unaware of people's personal metas, and we're largely unaware of yours with the exception of the twin/triplet claim stuff. I know most of you have played one other game around here, and I was on the scumteam with Swan in the last game I played in, but I still don't feel like I have a good measure of him.

Anyway, my reads summary back at #340 lumped all three of you together in the less-towny end of my feelings about people. I've said I'm happy enough with a wagon on any of you, so I don't really think that my pointing out that I'm prone to getting confused between you is helping supposed scum buddies. I mainly said it to give town a hand understanding me, and also for help understanding the "twin claim" thing, since the only place I'd come across it before was Swan in the game where we were both scum, and other there, there seemed to be more pressing stuff to discuss. I think without having had it explained, I'd have assumed it would mean that the involved people have similar thought processes or metas, rather than just that they know each other IRL.

This (both posts) feels pretty stright-forward in ways that they didn't feel in M108 either.

It's not much, but considering Space's scum!meta I think it's pretty indicative.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Space, why haven't you given us your probabilities for scum roles after coming up with a result that disagrees with the previously presented numbers?

[Swowl]

Hey guys this is like wayyyyyyyy ahead of schedule but I wanted to bring it up - Next Thursday is American Thanksgiving (there is a Canadian one too I think). To be specific it falls on November 23rd.
Just noting right now I will be cooking for like 48 straight hours during that time so I will be VLA from 23rd-25th.
Was also wondering how many other would be similarly unavailable and if possibly an extension would be in order for that day (assuming those players still in the game). Don't really know what the rules are on that.

[Swowl]

People with more context than I  - Are Teproc and LL normally on the same page with reads, off the same page, or not a factor?

[Skumpy]

Has anybody else besides me gotten no neighborly love? I think that's a good sign for me?

DatSwan's still my biggest townread, I don't see him forging the interactions and responses that he has been. Next is still Andrew, the attitude's more familiar now. Interesting that I’m completely at odds with Space on this.

Faust agreeing on my two biggest townreads but not townreading me, I think I like. Since I give him town support, this makes his scum though. Oh well. One way or another, I've got an "I told you so" argument. I'll probably give him another day anyhow, against my better judgment.

Raptor posted reads - that's new. He did no bussing at all his first game. I think if he's scum, there has to be a scum in the scum reads. I could see it being Awaclus or 2.7 if this is the case.

Teproc: On the one hand, I really disagree with the Swan read. On the other...I can't help but think of him as my innocent child and I really want to townread him and his laundry list reads. But I think he's another person who I'm always going to misread. And he's so different from Lalight that I keep forgetting it's the same role/slot/person. And LaLight was not very helpful (although now that he's outed, I don't know if it's a scumtell, him unable to focus because of IRL shenanigans, or me just being unfamiliar with his play. Maybe all 3). I don't really want to vote Teproc because he might be able to clean his name from LaLight's blight, but I also really want to because I'm worried he's scum and he will do so.

Space: There's scum townreading me for sure, but I'd imagine scum likes to keep their reads diverse. So if scumSpace sees two partners not accusing me, they might think "hey, there's somebody different I can go after", not knowing that when I'm town, I'm apparently reallllly good at convincing everybody in a handful of postings. [another deleted vote formerly resided here] Was there some OMGUS there? Probably 

And all in all, back to Vote 2.7. There is scum who says they think I'm town, and I'm going with e out of a really large pool. The accusation of IDPTG feels weird - I know he wasn't at the top of my charts D1, and 2.7 has to see that nobody else is making a case against him and nobody else was willing to lynch him. Could also see a forged interaction with Awaclus (whoever said they could see one between Awaclus and Andrew, I think I'm gonna reject that notion).

If decision comes down to Teproc or Space, I think I'd go with Space, for now anyways. I had more written that I was trying a definite-scum-in-Space-or-Teproc, but I deleted it. Partially because I like the 2.7 vote more, partially because I don't have a good track record with D2 elimination. Lynch pool for me stands at {2.7, Teproc, Space, Awaclus, Raptor}. I keep forgetting to seriously read into gkrieg and IDPTG as scum (so probably scum there, of course), still not quite ready to go for faust, definitely not doing Swan or Andrew again.

[faust]

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

Does he feel not similar to a town game of his?

[Skumpy]

Right now, I feel like the kid at the corner table at lunch talking to myself, alone with my juicebox and mother-made PB&J, while all the other students fight and die around me.

If anybody wants to ask me stuff, I'll be around, doing work at like 4 in the morning again. 

[faust]

Hey guys this is like wayyyyyyyy ahead of schedule but I wanted to bring it up - Next Thursday is American Thanksgiving (there is a Canadian one too I think). To be specific it falls on November 23rd.
Just noting right now I will be cooking for like 48 straight hours during that time so I will be VLA from 23rd-25th.
Was also wondering how many other would be similarly unavailable and if possibly an extension would be in order for that day (assuming those players still in the game). Don't really know what the rules are on that.

The rules is whatever schadd says. There are a decent amount of US people in the game, I think over half of them, so it might be a good thing.

[faust]

Right now, I feel like the kid at the corner table at lunch talking to myself, alone with my juicebox and mother-made PB&J, while all the other students fight and die around me.

What school did you go to?!

[faust]

Skumpy: I'm not really getting why you don't want to lynch Teproc as much as others. Is there anything in his play that makes it so? Or is it just that he's new to the game?

[Skumpy]

Skumpy: I'm not really getting why you don't want to lynch Teproc as much as others. Is there anything in his play that makes it so? Or is it just that he's new to the game?

Don't know if you're referring to Teproc or LaLight/Teproc, so I'll answer both.

LaLight/Teproc: Other people seemed scummier, even though it was a consistent like 3rd/4th from the top. I never cast a vote for LaLight, but there was never anything that said 'town' to me. I agreed with the people who said he was being unhelpful, but now, as I said, I don't know how much of it was caused by his IRL issues. Then again, that and being scum aren't mutually exclusive events. I was the one who suggested we lynch him to solve the problems before he got replaced, you may recall.

Teproc: Partially the current wagon, though it I know it does trickle from LaLight. To be perfectly honest, even though I write really long posts, I'm too lazy to actually read them by other people  I skimmed it without really double-checking for context, nothing stood out besides the scum read on 2.7 (which I agreed with) and the scum read on Swan (which I vehemently disagreed with). Other than Swan and Space, none of the reads particularly struck me as questionable, though that's easy to do when everybody's at null. I think he reads me as town regardless of alignment.

And also, above all else, it's my instincts that tell me 'Ok, he's new, let's see what he's up to' while I forget that this is still the LaLight account. I guess it just doesn't seem fair to lynch someone after 2 days of playtime? And maybe I also still think of him as confirmed town subconsciously? Honestly, I should do another reread of the long posts and see how I feel after it. But that is still a lynch I am more willing to support than a lot of others, and I don't dismiss the possibility that of the two current wagons of Space and Teproc, one is correct.

Will do said reread at some point in...the next few hours?

[faust]

Alright, let's do a LaLight reread, see where it gets us.

Let’s discuss something even if it’s a terrible idea

This is regarding some theory issue. I don't like it, why push for theory discussion if you think it's terrible? It only serves to out town PRs.

Why are you voting Chairs?

Rvs and his first post which was weird

Conflating RVS with real reads is never good.

Let’s see where vote: DatSwan will get us

Nowhere, probably. Do you think DatSwan is scum?

I think he is acting weird compared to other games is all. Do you think Dylan is scum? I am not opposed to voting for Dylan, but I don't remember a single thing he said

Well he has only two posts, so you did not miss much. None of them contains even a hint of a read. Early on that was sufficient reason to vote already. Now the case is strengthened by LAL.

okay, let's do this then. vote: Dylan32

Super careful wagon hopping.

well, I can see why people are voting for me

Scummy.

I'm trying to find a reason to vote for someone else, but nothing is sticking out.

super scummy. I feel very same when I am scum.

Hm. Compare to:

Rvs and his first post which was weird

It cannot be both.

Second more than first. To be sincere i thoufht “i need to vote for someone” then I saw his post and thought, that’s more scummy than anything before it

Why did you feel the need to vote for someone?

I didn’t. I like to start game with vote so when the person is scum i can say  i told you

Day 2 starts like this:

vote: Xx

Completely out of nowhere.

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all

I don't like this vote one bit.

LL not moving his vote for pretty much the whole game is really strange to me but I'll have to go back and a do a reread on him.

Well, I pretty much thought for the whole D1 that Dylan was scum ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And that, as gkrieg said, just doesn't come from town!LaLight. Dylan was VLA for most of D1 too, and LaLight only jumped the wagon after my encouragement, so it's demonstrably false.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Alright, let's do a LaLight reread, see where it gets us.

Let’s discuss something even if it’s a terrible idea

This is regarding some theory issue. I don't like it, why push for theory discussion if you think it's terrible? It only serves to out town PRs.

Why are you voting Chairs?

Rvs and his first post which was weird

Conflating RVS with real reads is never good.

Let’s see where vote: DatSwan will get us

Nowhere, probably. Do you think DatSwan is scum?

I think he is acting weird compared to other games is all. Do you think Dylan is scum? I am not opposed to voting for Dylan, but I don't remember a single thing he said

Well he has only two posts, so you did not miss much. None of them contains even a hint of a read. Early on that was sufficient reason to vote already. Now the case is strengthened by LAL.

okay, let's do this then. vote: Dylan32

Super careful wagon hopping.

well, I can see why people are voting for me

Scummy.

I'm trying to find a reason to vote for someone else, but nothing is sticking out.

super scummy. I feel very same when I am scum.

Hm. Compare to:

Rvs and his first post which was weird

It cannot be both.

Second more than first. To be sincere i thoufht “i need to vote for someone” then I saw his post and thought, that’s more scummy than anything before it

Why did you feel the need to vote for someone?

I didn’t. I like to start game with vote so when the person is scum i can say  i told you

Day 2 starts like this:

vote: Xx

Completely out of nowhere.

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all

I don't like this vote one bit.

LL not moving his vote for pretty much the whole game is really strange to me but I'll have to go back and a do a reread on him.

Well, I pretty much thought for the whole D1 that Dylan was scum ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And that, as gkrieg said, just doesn't come from town!LaLight. Dylan was VLA for most of D1 too, and LaLight only jumped the wagon after my encouragement, so it's demonstrably false.

What do you think of a LaLight (Teproc)/Space team?

[faust]

What do you think of a LaLight (Teproc)/Space team?

I don't think Space is scum, and I have not spent a lot of time thinking about partner interactions.

[gkrieg13]

I like faust's post about LaLight/Teproc.  That is seriously where people should be voting right now.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, why haven't you given us your probabilities for scum roles after coming up with a result that disagrees with the previously presented numbers?

I didn't to spoiler you guys if someone else wanted to attempt the exercise before I provided solutions. That, plus the numbers are on my laptop and I didn't even bother taking it home from work overnight last night because of the work social, so I was just phone-posting. Oh, and a third reason was that I pulled out all sorts of numbers but wanted to see if anyone expressed interest in particular sorts of numbers before I post things.

I'll post things now, though. I'm putting it in a code block so it doesn't take up too much thread-space. Unless people have specifically game-useful stuff to discuss on the back of this, it's maybe best not to have a whole numbers-theory discussion in response, since this crawling enough as it is :-/

Code: [Select]

Current possible roles and likelihoods:
Cost 4, prob 0.0571 Neigh, JK+RC
Cost 4, prob 0.0571 Tra, JK+RC
Cost 5, prob 0.0571 Vig, JK+RC
Cost 5, prob 0.0571 Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 6, prob 0.0571 JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 5, prob 0.0429 Neigh, Tra, JK+RC
Cost 6, prob 0.0429 Neigh, Vig, JK+RC
Cost 6, prob 0.0429 Neigh, Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 7, prob 0.0429 Neigh, JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 6, prob 0.0429 Tra, Vig, JK+RC
Cost 6, prob 0.0429 Tra, Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 7, prob 0.0429 Tra, JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 7, prob 0.0429 Vig, Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 8, prob 0.0429 Vig, JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 8, prob 0.0429 Doc/Nea, JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 7, prob 0.0571 Neigh, Tra, Vig, JK+RC
Cost 7, prob 0.0571 Neigh, Tra, Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 8, prob 0.0571 Neigh, Tra, JK+RC, MoDet
Cost 8, prob 0.0571 Neigh, Vig, Doc/Nea, JK+RC
Cost 8, prob 0.0571 Tra, Vig, Doc/Nea, JK+RC


Current probability of having each cost:
Cost 4 -> prob 0.1143
Cost 5 -> prob 0.1571
Cost 6 -> prob 0.2286
Cost 7 -> prob 0.2429
Cost 8 -> prob 0.2571


Current probability of having each role:
0.4571 chance of having Neigh.
0.4571 chance of having Tra.
0.4000 chance of having Vig.
0.4000 chance of having Doc/Nea.
1.0000 chance of having JK+RC.
0.2857 chance of having MoDet.

[Teproc]

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

Does he feel not similar to a town game of his?

No, he doesn't. Does this Swan look like M105!Swan to you ?

[Swowl]

That being said, I think the scummiest player around is Swan. He feels super similar to M108, especially on D2 with the big analysis posts that come to not much.

Does he feel not similar to a town game of his?

No, he doesn't. Does this Swan look like M105!Swan to you ?

I feel like Swan from 110 TBH.