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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130916 times)

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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #650 on: November 13, 2017, 08:12:11 pm »

Vote count 2.2

Xxraptorslayer96 (1): IDontPlayThisGame
Awaclus (1): 2.71828...
SpaceAnemone (1): LaLight
LaLight (2): faust, DatSwan

not voting (6) : Skumpy, AndrewisFTTW, Xxraptorslayer96, gkrieg13, Awaclus, SpaceAnemone

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. day 2 ends saturday, november 18th at 00:00 forum time.

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« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 08:18:51 pm by schadd »
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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #651 on: November 13, 2017, 08:20:13 pm »

,apfgug
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'

Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #652 on: November 13, 2017, 08:42:47 pm »

So according to your logic everyone on the Dylan wagon is scum and everyone off it is town. GG everyone! Well done!

No, according to my logic, one person off it (myself) is town. Do you think we shouldn't place any value on wagon analysis when scumhunting?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #653 on: November 13, 2017, 08:46:21 pm »

I have a third set of possible numbers for the likelihoods of each of the costs 4-8 (which disagrees with both sets presented so far).

@IDP, your set seems most suspicious because of all those clean multiple-of-five likelihoods you got out of the scenario. Did you read schadd's algorithm as described at #212, and faust's nice breakdown at #222?

I got 20 possible set-ups left, hence multiples of 5.

You are correct that there are 20 setups left, but they're definitely not equiprobable. As faust pointed out at #222, certain states from the 2-option and 4-option pools were disallowed, and the effective probabilities of having 2, 3, or 4 roles get modified accordingly. It's only within each of those pools that all possible combinations remain equiprobable.

You need to do two rounds of re-normalization across the probabilities:

First, generate the full 40 possibilities that schadd might have generated using his proposal method. Probabilities in the 2-shot and 4-shot pools will be (1/3)*(1/15), and in the 3-shot pool it's (1/3)*(1/20)). Then multiply the ones whose costs sum to something outside 4-8 by zero, and redistribute all the other probabilities proportionally so that they still all sum to one.

Second, identify all the states that don't include Galz's flipped role. Set those states' probabilities to zero, and re-normalize again to get probabilities for the remaining 20 states.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #654 on: November 13, 2017, 09:19:14 pm »

So according to your logic everyone on the Dylan wagon is scum and everyone off it is town. GG everyone! Well done!

No, according to my logic, one person off it (myself) is town. Do you think we shouldn't place any value on wagon analysis when scumhunting?

Nowhere have I ever come remotely close to even hinting at that. You on the other hand concluded that because you were off of Dylan's wagon, are town. So case closed right? But not only that, that logic only applies to YOU. I just.... how... I... man this is exasperating.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #655 on: November 13, 2017, 09:21:38 pm »

Actual content coming soon, when I get home.
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #656 on: November 13, 2017, 09:25:54 pm »

Nowhere have I ever come remotely close to even hinting at that.

You just did that in your previous post.

You on the other hand concluded that because you were off of Dylan's wagon, are town. So case closed right? But not only that, that logic only applies to YOU. I just.... how... I... man this is exasperating.

And then you did it again.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #657 on: November 13, 2017, 09:41:58 pm »

Nowhere have I ever come remotely close to even hinting at that.

You just did that in your previous post.

You on the other hand concluded that because you were off of Dylan's wagon, are town. So case closed right? But not only that, that logic only applies to YOU. I just.... how... I... man this is exasperating.

And then you did it again.

Just because I think you're wrong doesn't mean I'm dismissing wagon analysis entirely.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #658 on: November 13, 2017, 09:43:46 pm »

Just because I think you're wrong doesn't mean I'm dismissing wagon analysis entirely.

In that case I would assume you agree that me being off wagon is a reason to think I'm town.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #659 on: November 13, 2017, 09:49:19 pm »

Just because I think you're wrong doesn't mean I'm dismissing wagon analysis entirely.

In that case I would assume you agree that me being off wagon is a reason to think I'm town.

Alright I'm tagging out. Somebody else take over, I can't handle it anymore.

Well what do we learn from Galz being JK:

1) Who was Galz likely to target for starters? Because that person did not carry the kill (unless skum has RB and skum decided to RB and kill Galz, which I find unlikely).
        - He was pushing LL hard so I wanna say its likely he went there. Doesn't absolve LL but def puts him in a more towny light than he was before. Also, he was pretty clear that he suspected XXR as his number 2 pick so probably drops him down the list a small amount.

2) JK/RC Role was worth 3 skum points. So among us we have the following options left:
     4 - Skum has "nada" and Town has either Neighborizor or Tracker
     5 - Skum has Role Cop and Town has either Vig or Doctor, or both Neighborizor and Tracker
     6 - Skum has Role Blocker and Town has Motion Detector or a combo of Vig/Doc and Neighborizor/Tracker
     7 - Skum has RC + RB and Town has Motion Detector and either Neighborizor or Tracker, or both Vig and Doc
     8 - Skum has Everything and Town has Motion Detector plus either Vig or Doctor, or Motion Detector and both Neighborizor and Tracker

3)
I am trying to find a way to use this to our advantage and all I am coming back with is... this is a shitty situation.
The idea of mass claiming kind of sucks because with Galz flipping as a "3" it significantly increased the liklihood of Skum having Day Chat.
The idea of having one role claim sucks as well IMO. I don't think any remaining role's info would outweigh the outting of themselves.
I was trying to come up with a scenario in which we could claim "skum point value" in order to try to isolate was Skum PR's could be out there. However, everything I think of is too easily manipulated.
The "if I was the neighborizor I would target.." idea seems like it would be an OK gameplan. Would like it if anyone has a downside to it speak up please.

4) Pretty much what I was left with was a Galz re-read.... which was surprisingly un-eventful. More surprisingly, he had like the #3 in post content and it was still the case. He saw LL as skummy, he saw Faust as town, and he mentioned one time (#50) that he read Skumpy as town. Other than that he kind of stayed out of the way - which I suppose makes sense given the power he had.

5) This comes from inexperience - but like.. if there is a Vig they would not of shot N1 right? Especially at Galz? Not anything worth considering there.


Blah. Whatever. More tomorrow. Sleep now.

Alright. ^I think this guy is town.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #660 on: November 13, 2017, 09:55:41 pm »

So Faust, your top two scum reads are dead, but it seems to not have phased you at all and you say that Dylan’s reads don’t matter?  If I were in your position, I would acknowledge that I have some things to reconsider, but it seems like you are just moving on.

I don't think this is really fair to faust. I wouldn't put much stock into Dylan's reads either and I don't think faust really needs to come out and apologize to everyone. All we can do is "move on".
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #661 on: November 13, 2017, 09:59:18 pm »

3. Actually makes me think Andrew's scum.

What does exactly?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #662 on: November 13, 2017, 10:01:20 pm »

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.
Where can I see you genuinely scumhunt?

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.

As a result, I eventually (correctly) identified Galzria as someone I didn't want to lynch.

I'm not sure that's exactly the kind of community-spirited scum-hunting that most people think of when describing particular behaviour as scum-hunting.

I kind of feel like you're being more of a parody of yourself here than you often are. But you're an easy-to-push mislynch target, too, so I won't jump on the wagon yet.

I don't think scum!Space talks to their scum!Awaclus partner in this way, just for future reference.
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #663 on: November 13, 2017, 10:05:09 pm »

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #664 on: November 13, 2017, 10:05:48 pm »

3. Is Andrew town, and scum didn't care who got lynched? If so, why Dylan and not Andrew? - They thought they could make an Andrew case today

Yes!

Quote
6. What do we make of faust accusing both Galzria and Dylan? - Nothing. He was wrong. Shit happens.

Yes!

Quote
8. Did Raptor genuinely not realize he was hammering? - I don't think he tries to pull that off given his image at the time.

Yes!
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #665 on: November 13, 2017, 10:06:47 pm »

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #666 on: November 13, 2017, 10:20:52 pm »

Also, in my head I'm getting really quite mixed up between Skumpy and Raptor, and also Swan a bit, because they're all quite new to me, and also some of them have the Galz "twin claim" thing. I still haven't quite understood what a twin claim actually means.

I really don't believe this. There is nothing at all similar about us, and I would not be surprised to see a scum team of Space/{Raptor,DatSwan} (or both). RR made a similar slip in my first game (!) that helped tell me Swan was town after RR flipped - this I could easily see being a bluff. Not voting yet.

I agree with Skumpy on this, not buying it. This seems really off for Space.

Vote: Space
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #668 on: November 13, 2017, 10:47:34 pm »

Alright, Dylan votes.

Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

Note: Not including the first two votes (faust and me) as they were on Pg. 4 and were RVS.

LL votes saying he thinks Dylan is scum without really backing it up.

well, I can see why people are voting for me, but what is really strange is that some of them stated scumread on another person and then voted for me, weird. I think Dylan is scum here and I want to vote: Dylan as I don't remember if I am still doing that. I would even say DatSwan is one of the partners.

Datswan vote. No original opinion on the wagon and includes the caveat of "def could change on that".

Can’t bwleive I’m saying it.... but I agree with Faust.
This actually makes me like the Andrew wagon a lot more then i did before.
Why?

Makes me think it could be skum buddy protection lowering  wagon count prior to the inevitable last minute piles that will soon ensue.
So, want to lynch Idplay? I mean this is stronger evidence on him than it is on Andrew.

Fair enough. I could go for that but doubt we gain much support.
vote: dylan seems like a better plan for the time being. Def could change on that but for now seems like a fine choice.

Galz vote.

I am not the biggest fan of this lynch, but I'll vote: Dylan for now. We're creeping up on deadline and are massively spread out. My LL vote is useless right now, Raptor/Awaclus don't seem to be happening, and I don't like the Faust wagon.

For those on Andrew: Why should I vote there over Dylan?

Me vote.

Really? Nobody into a DatSwan lynch?

I'll be around for a few more hours but not for deadline.

Andrew, what do you think of a raptor lynch? Would you move to Dylan if needed? Why should I vote DatSwan?

Raptor I don't feel one way or another about. Yes I'll move to Dylan now that faust isn't coming back and nobody else seems into DatSwan.

Vote: Dylan

e vote.

I won't participate in a last minute change.

Ok, fine. Spoil the party.

Vote: Dylan

IDPTG vote.

Just got back and caught up. I'll be here until deadline.

You want to lynch yourself?

If it would stop a no-lynch, yes, but I don't think we're there.

vote: Dylan L-1

Last time I lynched Dylan over Andrew, it didn't go well. I think this'll be better.

PPE 3

Raptor derp.

vote: Dylan I’ll try to be around but I’m workinh now.

Dylan just seemed more scummy compared to Andrew.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #669 on: November 13, 2017, 10:54:41 pm »

This is kinda tough. e wanted an alternate wagon. I think if he was scum he would've just gone along with the Dylan lynch without much fuss. The whole "I think this'll be better" comment about from IDPTG seems like a hopeful town comment to me but I could be wrong. The raptor and LL votes are the scummiest to me. raptor not announcing intent to hammer isn't scummy to me, but just the nonchalant "Dylan just seemed more scummy" seems like he was thinking "I better post something to explain why I'm voting" instead of simply voting to get a lynch, which I think is a thought process more common for scum. LL not moving his vote for pretty much the whole game is really strange to me but I'll have to go back and a do a reread on him.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #670 on: November 13, 2017, 11:42:01 pm »

vote: LL
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #671 on: November 13, 2017, 11:53:20 pm »

I have a third set of possible numbers for the likelihoods of each of the costs 4-8 (which disagrees with both sets presented so far).

@IDP, your set seems most suspicious because of all those clean multiple-of-five likelihoods you got out of the scenario. Did you read schadd's algorithm as described at #212, and faust's nice breakdown at #222?

I got 20 possible set-ups left, hence multiples of 5.

You are correct that there are 20 setups left, but they're definitely not equiprobable. As faust pointed out at #222, certain states from the 2-option and 4-option pools were disallowed, and the effective probabilities of having 2, 3, or 4 roles get modified accordingly. It's only within each of those pools that all possible combinations remain equiprobable.

You need to do two rounds of re-normalization across the probabilities:

First, generate the full 40 possibilities that schadd might have generated using his proposal method. Probabilities in the 2-shot and 4-shot pools will be (1/3)*(1/15), and in the 3-shot pool it's (1/3)*(1/20)). Then multiply the ones whose costs sum to something outside 4-8 by zero, and redistribute all the other probabilities proportionally so that they still all sum to one.

Second, identify all the states that don't include Galz's flipped role. Set those states' probabilities to zero, and re-normalize again to get probabilities for the remaining 20 states.

Fair enough. You can post yours or I can adjust mine.

raptor not announcing intent to hammer isn't scummy to me, but just the nonchalant "Dylan just seemed more scummy" seems like he was thinking "I better post something to explain why I'm voting" instead of simply voting to get a lynch, which I think is a thought process more common for scum.

Do you make anything of raptor's use of past tense about Dylan in relation to the derphammer?

PPE: OMGUS

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #672 on: November 14, 2017, 01:56:38 am »

This was intended to be short. It's not.



First, I think I know where I went wrong with my calculations - I assumed the chance of flipping a 2,3, or 4 were all the same; pretty sure that is not the case, 4 is more likely than 2 at this point (to prove this, if Dylan was a PR and there were 2 dead PR's now, it would be far more likely that there were more PRs left than they were all dead).

@DatSwan What I was said was unfair and overly snappy, reading back. I blame external stimuli. But: I like elimination, as you well know, and 1/4 isn't very useful. True, there could be more scum there, but you also left faust and Andrew off your minilist (although more on that in a second). The other problem is: if Andrew is town, then by your logic, there's probably a scum in the 5 that voted him. And two of them are Dylan and yourself. So if you trust Andrew is town (and heck, maybe even if you don't), there's a pool of 3 that probably has a scum. So why not do that?

@Space It''s not about knowing metas, it's about how my writing style shares no commonalities whatsoever with Raptor's (unless that is what a meta is). Yes, you don't know us, but nobody mixed up in our first game like you did (granted, I was probably posting more and he was posting less, but still!) To lump me in with the twins seems like a very convenient way of making the classic scum move "here are 4 potential scum. 1 of them actually is scum so that when they're caught, I don't look so bad!"


Since I have been very tentative to give towncred this game, I'll dip two toes into the water here.

1. DatSwan: I will reveal some of my hesitancy with him, but not all - I felt coming into this game that the longer the game went on, the more likely he would be scum until he proves otherwise. In regards to his D2 opening post, it seemed scummy to theorize about roleblocking a jail keeper that was killed, but the rest of that post reminds me of a lot of his 105 lategame stuff - lots of theorizing, most of which is probably not very helpful or necessary to know :P, but still putting ideas out there. Based off my grand total of 1 game with him, my gut tells me I can read him pretty well, and right now, my guts telling me my guts say he's town. Not going all in yet, but I'll go like halfway.

2. Andrew: Whaaaat? Didn't Skumpy vote him? Yes! I did! But his recent semantics and scum hunting overall have been a lot more familiar. This don't seem like an act to get him off the chopping block today. He managed to pick up 5 votes yesterday, and nobody (besides yours truly) flipped from him. Doesn't mean there wasn't bussing, but it is a point in favor of two town wagons. And if Awaclus was arguing with me, "TAGGING OUT" is exactly what I'm doing as town - scum might be more anxious to get the heat off them.


Everybody else:
LaLight: Have I mentioned big wagons scare me? This one does. He has not been townying it up this game, but again, I don't seem to recall anybody defending him (especially the dead dudes), that's a troubling fact. No way I can L-2 this with 5 days left.

Space: More comfortable L-3ing this. I like discussing probabilities and improving my putrid mathing skills, but it really is an incredibly empty 38 posts. Lalight and Andrew on already? I could see a bus (I know I said Andrew was town earlier, but when someone agrees with an idea of mine, that always concerns me). I'm tempted to vote here to see what happens, but I won't (there was a vote here, but it has since been edited out).

Awaclus: Pass. Not that I'm against a lynch, it gets a wildcard out of the way.

IDPTG: Like, I just forget you're there. There's something about your profile-picless-posting that makes me think you're town, then I read the content and I think "Welp...who knows? He does!"

gkrieg: The longer you're gone, the more I look elsewhere at active players for scum. Which is why I'm starting to look back at you. Your read lists do strike me on the townier side, certainly enough to get you out of the top 3 pool.

faust: Soooo many townreads on you. And I kinda feel like there's a lot of your posting that suggests you are town, this isn't stuff you can say with such a townie accent if you're scum. But I thought you were a really bad scum player once, which was a theory that ended up getting busted hard. I'm not going to make the same mistake in the other direction....yet. And I still haven't moved from null for you. That's curious too.

Raptor: I liked Swan's defense when he said it. But now, I keep coming back to "This is the same as 105". I'm now remembering why you lasted so long, because nobody can be sure with you. And there's still my (probably incorrect) Raptor/Space theory still out there, awaiting a good counter.

2.7: How are you still under the radar?!?! I ended D1 intending to get back to voting for you ASAP....then I just didn't, and let others slip ahead of you. I believe not all scum has eluded notice, but I believe some definitely has. You could very well be a part of that latter category.


So leaning now towards....Raptor/Space/2.7? This post was stream-of-conscioused, please don't hold me to this if I'm wrong, but please give me a lot of credit if I'm at least 2/3 right.

Vote: XX
Still haven't had a chance to comb D1 and pay attention to all the interactions, I'm operating off of memory and so-far impressions of D2. I reserve the rights to reverse all reads (I found an anagram!!)
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #673 on: November 14, 2017, 02:37:55 am »

Also, in my head I'm getting really quite mixed up between Skumpy and Raptor, and also Swan a bit, because they're all quite new to me, and also some of them have the Galz "twin claim" thing. I still haven't quite understood what a twin claim actually means.

I really don't believe this. There is nothing at all similar about us, and I would not be surprised to see a scum team of Space/{Raptor,DatSwan} (or both). RR made a similar slip in my first game (!) that helped tell me Swan was town after RR flipped - this I could easily see being a bluff. Not voting yet.

I agree with Skumpy on this, not buying it. This seems really off for Space.

Vote: Space
I don't understand why scum!Space would make something like this up. I mean Skumpy gives an explanation, but I am really not buying that. I think Space as any alignment wouldn't come up with this if it wasn't at least close to the truth.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #674 on: November 14, 2017, 02:38:46 am »

Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

Note: Not including the first two votes (faust and me) as they were on Pg. 4 and were RVS.
Speak for yourself. I don't do RVS.
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You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did
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