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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130859 times)

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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #625 on: November 13, 2017, 12:50:53 am »

Thanks for not prodding me.

Went to back to read through Day 1 on an empty stomach, so naturally, I found basically nothing. I'd like to try again, but I just don't have the time these days to pick everything apart, and I really do want to. But I just can't pay close enough attention right now. Only thing that particularly caught my eye (again) was:

Also, in my head I'm getting really quite mixed up between Skumpy and Raptor, and also Swan a bit, because they're all quite new to me, and also some of them have the Galz "twin claim" thing. I still haven't quite understood what a twin claim actually means.

I really don't believe this. There is nothing at all similar about us, and I would not be surprised to see a scum team of Space/{Raptor,DatSwan} (or both). RR made a similar slip in my first game (!) that helped tell me Swan was town after RR flipped - this I could easily see being a bluff. Not voting yet.

Nobody really came off as townie to me, I need to either reread or wait for more info. Probably the latter. I don't feel that all 3 scum have slipped under the radar, I think at least 1 has had a wagon of some significance. New Awaclus wagon concerns me somewhat? Him defending himself makes me a bit more suspicious, but I don't think I can nor will I ever be able to get a good read on his madness.

Last 2 things:
I was not actually expecting anyone to answer the 10 questions, they were either obvious or we don't have enough information yet to say anything past the obvious answers.

My probabilities are almost certainly wrong, just trust IDPTG on this one (even though they're pretty close and it's not like the extra 10% is going to affect anything).
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LaLight

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #626 on: November 13, 2017, 01:49:34 am »

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all :P
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #627 on: November 13, 2017, 02:18:53 am »

Vote: LaLight
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #628 on: November 13, 2017, 02:19:04 am »

Happy birthday!
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #629 on: November 13, 2017, 02:20:24 am »

Happy birthday!

Aw thanks! Is it the only reason you voted for me? :)
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #630 on: November 13, 2017, 02:21:31 am »

Happy birthday!

Aw thanks! Is it the only reason you voted for me? :)
No, mostly your last post.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #631 on: November 13, 2017, 02:40:38 am »

What?

NVM.. I was trying to be funny and failed.
Read briefly through RR in 105. Didn't see any L1 scheming.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #632 on: November 13, 2017, 02:41:30 am »

What?

NVM.. I was trying to be funny and failed.
Read briefly through RR in 105. Didn't see any L1 scheming.

Wow I am just horrible lately.

Should read "I read briefly through XXR in 105. Didn't see any L1 scheming".
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #633 on: November 13, 2017, 02:42:00 am »

So: Wagons on Andrew, LaLight and me are bad, wagons on Space and Dylan are good.

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all :P


Vote: LaLight

We're getting topsy-turvy now? (Oh yeah, since I've never said it yet: thank you all non-native English speakers for making my life so much easier).

Happy birthday!
Ditto! A quarter of the way to 100 (that's when you die).
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #634 on: November 13, 2017, 02:45:56 am »

So: Wagons on Andrew, LaLight and me are bad, wagons on Space and Dylan are good.

I like IDPTG’s amount of scumhunting and think it is sincere. I’d like to vote: Space for not posting anything of substance at all :P


Vote: LaLight

We're getting topsy-turvy now? (Oh yeah, since I've never said it yet: thank you all non-native English speakers for making my life so much easier).

Happy birthday!
Ditto! A quarter of the way to 100 (that's when you die).
I am not beholden to opinions I posted early D1. You wouldn't want me to still suspect Dylan.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #635 on: November 13, 2017, 02:54:50 am »

thread looooocked

D1 Final Vote count


AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1): Skumpy

with 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch. day 1 ends wednesday, november 8th at 21:00 forum time, in like 0 seconds

mod notes
  • phone

Question of realness - How many skum, or what range of skum, do we believe to be on the D1 Dylan Wagon?

Once we remove Galz, we are left with:
Faust
LL
Andrew
E!
IDPTG
XXR

IMO I think it is likely 1-2 skum in this set up.
I think that whether Andrew is Skum or Town they would of voted here. Skum for proc, Town for self preservation.
I also, am quite sold that Faust is Town at this point. Would take into considerations arguments on that, but it is my read right now.

I am trying to deduce something from the Andrew wagon in regards to skum hunting but I can't come up with anything. There was so much attention draw I don't see why they wouldn't of just came up with some reason and switched if need be. I guess that brings Andrew back into the pool a little, but I am disregarding that for now.

Leaves my lynch pool currently at LL, E!, IDPTG, XXR (in that order).

Sorry :P Happy birthday!
Vote: LL
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #636 on: November 13, 2017, 03:34:32 am »

thread looooocked

D1 Final Vote count


AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1): Skumpy

with 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch. day 1 ends wednesday, november 8th at 21:00 forum time, in like 0 seconds

mod notes
  • phone

Question of realness - How many skum, or what range of skum, do we believe to be on the D1 Dylan Wagon?

Once we remove Galz, we are left with:
Faust
LL
Andrew
E!
IDPTG
XXR

IMO I think it is likely 1-2 skum in this set up.
I think that whether Andrew is Skum or Town they would of voted here. Skum for proc, Town for self preservation.
I also, am quite sold that Faust is Town at this point. Would take into considerations arguments on that, but it is my read right now.

I am trying to deduce something from the Andrew wagon in regards to skum hunting but I can't come up with anything. There was so much attention draw I don't see why they wouldn't of just came up with some reason and switched if need be. I guess that brings Andrew back into the pool a little, but I am disregarding that for now.

Leaves my lynch pool currently at LL, E!, IDPTG, XXR (in that order).

Sorry :P Happy birthday!
Vote: LL

A whole number between -1 and 4, exclusive.

Andrew = town:
Then scum doesn't care who gets lynched. Unlikely to find 3 scum in {Space, Awaclus, Gkrieg, you}.

Andrew = scum:
Then scum almost certainly weren't both on. It's a good look for Space, especially when they didn't switch. Not a good look for Raptor and IDPTG. But if Andrew's scum, then nobody flipped (besides me, but I just so happen to be town, and when I said 'I have a decision' it was for Andrew even though I then went instantly back to null based on something-I-don't-remember). So sure, really doubtful that there were 2 bussers among the 4.

So...yeah? Probably at least 1 scum who voted for Dylan?

But...

 a) You've got a lot more talking to do to convince me faust is town (I get that it's not smart for a scummer's top 2 scum reads to flip town, but this isn't pat-on-the-back-worthy material here folks!)

b) You said nothing to validate leaving Andrew out of it.

And c) If you're town, you just listed a subset of 4 out of 10 unknowns. Statistically, there is most likely a scum there. The last 4 people to post besides myself were you, faust, Lalight, and IDPTG. Guys, I found a scum! (The scary part is I don't know if I found 3 or 0)


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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #637 on: November 13, 2017, 03:42:57 am »

thread looooocked

D1 Final Vote count


AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1): Skumpy

kind of... except the whole bit where mine is based on the logic of a Town player getting lynched and who was there to contribute to that vs yours which is based on birthday posts and nonsense...

with 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch. day 1 ends wednesday, november 8th at 21:00 forum time, in like 0 seconds

mod notes
  • phone

Question of realness - How many skum, or what range of skum, do we believe to be on the D1 Dylan Wagon?

Once we remove Galz, we are left with:
Faust
LL
Andrew
E!
IDPTG
XXR

IMO I think it is likely 1-2 skum in this set up.
I think that whether Andrew is Skum or Town they would of voted here. Skum for proc, Town for self preservation.
I also, am quite sold that Faust is Town at this point. Would take into considerations arguments on that, but it is my read right now.

I am trying to deduce something from the Andrew wagon in regards to skum hunting but I can't come up with anything. There was so much attention draw I don't see why they wouldn't of just came up with some reason and switched if need be. I guess that brings Andrew back into the pool a little, but I am disregarding that for now.

Leaves my lynch pool currently at LL, E!, IDPTG, XXR (in that order).

Sorry :P Happy birthday!
Vote: LL

A whole number between -1 and 4, exclusive.

Andrew = town:
Then scum doesn't care who gets lynched. Unlikely to find 3 scum in {Space, Awaclus, Gkrieg, you}.

Andrew = scum:
Then scum almost certainly weren't both on. It's a good look for Space, especially when they didn't switch. Not a good look for Raptor and IDPTG. But if Andrew's scum, then nobody flipped (besides me, but I just so happen to be town, and when I said 'I have a decision' it was for Andrew even though I then went instantly back to null based on something-I-don't-remember). So sure, really doubtful that there were 2 bussers among the 4.

So...yeah? Probably at least 1 scum who voted for Dylan?

But...

 a) You've got a lot more talking to do to convince me faust is town (I get that it's not smart for a scummer's top 2 scum reads to flip town, but this isn't pat-on-the-back-worthy material here folks!)

b) You said nothing to validate leaving Andrew out of it.

And c) If you're town, you just listed a subset of 4 out of 10 unknowns. Statistically, there is most likely a scum there. The last 4 people to post besides myself were you, faust, Lalight, and IDPTG. Guys, I found a scum! (The scary part is I don't know if I found 3 or 0)
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #638 on: November 13, 2017, 03:43:57 am »

thread looooocked

D1 Final Vote count


AndrewisFTTW (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Dylan32
Dylan32 (7): faust, LaLight, Galzria, AndrewisFTTW, 2.71828..., IDontPlayThisGame, Xxraptorslayer96

not voting (1): Skumpy

with 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch. day 1 ends wednesday, november 8th at 21:00 forum time, in like 0 seconds

mod notes
  • phone

Question of realness - How many skum, or what range of skum, do we believe to be on the D1 Dylan Wagon?

Once we remove Galz, we are left with:
Faust
LL
Andrew
E!
IDPTG
XXR

IMO I think it is likely 1-2 skum in this set up.
I think that whether Andrew is Skum or Town they would of voted here. Skum for proc, Town for self preservation.
I also, am quite sold that Faust is Town at this point. Would take into considerations arguments on that, but it is my read right now.

I am trying to deduce something from the Andrew wagon in regards to skum hunting but I can't come up with anything. There was so much attention draw I don't see why they wouldn't of just came up with some reason and switched if need be. I guess that brings Andrew back into the pool a little, but I am disregarding that for now.

Leaves my lynch pool currently at LL, E!, IDPTG, XXR (in that order).

Sorry :P Happy birthday!
Vote: LL

A whole number between -1 and 4, exclusive.

Andrew = town:
Then scum doesn't care who gets lynched. Unlikely to find 3 scum in {Space, Awaclus, Gkrieg, you}.

Andrew = scum:
Then scum almost certainly weren't both on. It's a good look for Space, especially when they didn't switch. Not a good look for Raptor and IDPTG. But if Andrew's scum, then nobody flipped (besides me, but I just so happen to be town, and when I said 'I have a decision' it was for Andrew even though I then went instantly back to null based on something-I-don't-remember). So sure, really doubtful that there were 2 bussers among the 4.

So...yeah? Probably at least 1 scum who voted for Dylan?

But...

 a) You've got a lot more talking to do to convince me faust is town (I get that it's not smart for a scummer's top 2 scum reads to flip town, but this isn't pat-on-the-back-worthy material here folks!)

b) You said nothing to validate leaving Andrew out of it.

And c) If you're town, you just listed a subset of 4 out of 10 unknowns. Statistically, there is most likely a scum there. The last 4 people to post besides myself were you, faust, Lalight, and IDPTG. Guys, I found a scum! (The scary part is I don't know if I found 3 or 0)

***kind of... except the whole bit where mine is based on the logic of a Town player getting lynched and who was there to contribute to that vs yours which is based on birthday posts and nonsense...
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #639 on: November 13, 2017, 03:50:36 am »

Furthermore - we have to work with what we got. We have D1 to now (so mainly D1). The most useful piece of info from D1 is the lynch followed by subsequent wagons. I am choosing to focus on the lynch.
Are you saying we should not be considering that there was a skum on the lynch wagon?
I mean I guess it could of been all town, shit happens, but yesterdays lynch feels like the best jumping off point currently.

If you don't want to attempt to skum hunt based on the lynch from yesterday, what is it you propose we do?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #640 on: November 13, 2017, 09:35:44 am »

But I think his response here is more indicative of being scum

Which of the following statements do you think are not true, or not indicative of me being town?

 - I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day
 - you can see me genuinely scumhunt
 - I was off wagon for the town lynch

Individually they are nothing. But what they do is
1) ambiguously identify you as town
2) show how helpful you are so we can't lynch you
3) let you hide behind a mislynch to protect yourself

So scum
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #641 on: November 13, 2017, 01:02:14 pm »

Sorry, will actually get to this later, and find all the scums.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #642 on: November 13, 2017, 01:22:34 pm »

Individually they are nothing. But what they do is
1) ambiguously identify you as town
2) show how helpful you are so we can't lynch you
3) let you hide behind a mislynch to protect yourself

So scum

Town, not scum. It's a case for me being town. Everything about it suggests that I'm town and not scum.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #643 on: November 13, 2017, 02:17:15 pm »

Individually they are nothing. But what they do is
1) ambiguously identify you as town
2) show how helpful you are so we can't lynch you
3) let you hide behind a mislynch to protect yourself

So scum

Town, not scum. It's a case for me being town. Everything about it suggests that I'm town and not scum.

Would skum!you not use being off the mislynch wagon to come off as towny?  Not saying it’s the case, but to say “everything about the above argues that you are Town” is incorrect.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #644 on: November 13, 2017, 02:50:42 pm »

Ok I got a day off today so I'll be reading over the last few pages.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #645 on: November 13, 2017, 05:01:39 pm »

Individually they are nothing. But what they do is
1) ambiguously identify you as town
2) show how helpful you are so we can't lynch you
3) let you hide behind a mislynch to protect yourself

So scum

Town, not scum. It's a case for me being town. Everything about it suggests that I'm town and not scum.

Would skum!you not use being off the mislynch wagon to come off as towny?  Not saying it’s the case, but to say “everything about the above argues that you are Town” is incorrect.

No, scum!me would be on the mislynch.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #646 on: November 13, 2017, 06:30:58 pm »

Also, in my head I'm getting really quite mixed up between Skumpy and Raptor, and also Swan a bit, because they're all quite new to me, and also some of them have the Galz "twin claim" thing. I still haven't quite understood what a twin claim actually means.

I really don't believe this. There is nothing at all similar about us, and I would not be surprised to see a scum team of Space/{Raptor,DatSwan} (or both).

Meh. You don't have to believe it for it to be true. You're the people who're new to me here, which is the major thing you have in common. You're largely unaware of people's personal metas, and we're largely unaware of yours with the exception of the twin/triplet claim stuff. I know most of you have played one other game around here, and I was on the scumteam with Swan in the last game I played in, but I still don't feel like I have a good measure of him.

Anyway, my reads summary back at #340 lumped all three of you together in the less-towny end of my feelings about people. I've said I'm happy enough with a wagon on any of you, so I don't really think that my pointing out that I'm prone to getting confused between you is helping supposed scum buddies. I mainly said it to give town a hand understanding me, and also for help understanding the "twin claim" thing, since the only place I'd come across it before was Swan in the game where we were both scum, and other there, there seemed to be more pressing stuff to discuss. I think without having had it explained, I'd have assumed it would mean that the involved people have similar thought processes or metas, rather than just that they know each other IRL.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #647 on: November 13, 2017, 07:46:23 pm »

I have a third set of possible numbers for the likelihoods of each of the costs 4-8 (which disagrees with both sets presented so far).

@IDP, your set seems most suspicious because of all those clean multiple-of-five likelihoods you got out of the scenario. Did you read schadd's algorithm as described at #212, and faust's nice breakdown at #222?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #648 on: November 13, 2017, 07:54:31 pm »

Individually they are nothing. But what they do is
1) ambiguously identify you as town
2) show how helpful you are so we can't lynch you
3) let you hide behind a mislynch to protect yourself

So scum

Town, not scum. It's a case for me being town. Everything about it suggests that I'm town and not scum.

Would skum!you not use being off the mislynch wagon to come off as towny?  Not saying it’s the case, but to say “everything about the above argues that you are Town” is incorrect.

No, scum!me would be on the mislynch.

So according to your logic everyone on the Dylan wagon is scum and everyone off it is town. GG everyone! Well done!
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #649 on: November 13, 2017, 08:02:04 pm »

I have a third set of possible numbers for the likelihoods of each of the costs 4-8 (which disagrees with both sets presented so far).

@IDP, your set seems most suspicious because of all those clean multiple-of-five likelihoods you got out of the scenario. Did you read schadd's algorithm as described at #212, and faust's nice breakdown at #222?

I got 20 possible set-ups left, hence multiples of 5.
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