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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 74752 times)

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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #575 on: November 11, 2017, 12:27:43 am »

does anybody know their vocal ranges and if so please spill the beans

i'm g2/b4 (it's kind of hard to tell when it starts being falsetto i guess, especially when i don't want to be loud in living space)

g5 with falsetto which is only sometimes but also really satisfying during those times
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #576 on: November 11, 2017, 04:12:56 am »

Well what do we learn from Galz being JK:

1) Who was Galz likely to target for starters? Because that person did not carry the kill (unless skum has RB and skum decided to RB and kill Galz, which I find unlikely).
        - He was pushing LL hard so I wanna say its likely he went there. Doesn't absolve LL but def puts him in a more towny light than he was before. Also, he was pretty clear that he suspected XXR as his number 2 pick so probably drops him down the list a small amount.

2) JK/RC Role was worth 3 skum points. So among us we have the following options left:
     4 - Skum has "nada" and Town has either Neighborizor or Tracker
     5 - Skum has Role Cop and Town has either Vig or Doctor, or both Neighborizor and Tracker
     6 - Skum has Role Blocker and Town has Motion Detector or a combo of Vig/Doc and Neighborizor/Tracker
     7 - Skum has RC + RB and Town has Motion Detector and either Neighborizor or Tracker, or both Vig and Doc
     8 - Skum has Everything and Town has Motion Detector plus either Vig or Doctor, or Motion Detector and both Neighborizor and Tracker

3)
I am trying to find a way to use this to our advantage and all I am coming back with is... this is a shitty situation.
The idea of mass claiming kind of sucks because with Galz flipping as a "3" it significantly increased the liklihood of Skum having Day Chat.
The idea of having one role claim sucks as well IMO. I don't think any remaining role's info would outweigh the outting of themselves.
I was trying to come up with a scenario in which we could claim "skum point value" in order to try to isolate was Skum PR's could be out there. However, everything I think of is too easily manipulated.
The "if I was the neighborizor I would target.." idea seems like it would be an OK gameplan. Would like it if anyone has a downside to it speak up please.

4) Pretty much what I was left with was a Galz re-read.... which was surprisingly un-eventful. More surprisingly, he had like the #3 in post content and it was still the case. He saw LL as skummy, he saw Faust as town, and he mentioned one time (#50) that he read Skumpy as town. Other than that he kind of stayed out of the way - which I suppose makes sense given the power he had.

5) This comes from inexperience - but like.. if there is a Vig they would not of shot N1 right? Especially at Galz? Not anything worth considering there.


Blah. Whatever. More tomorrow. Sleep now.

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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #577 on: November 11, 2017, 04:13:44 am »

does anybody know their vocal ranges and if so please spill the beans

i'm g2/b4 (it's kind of hard to tell when it starts being falsetto i guess, especially when i don't want to be loud in living space)

g5 with falsetto which is only sometimes but also really satisfying during those times

G2 Baritone!
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #578 on: November 11, 2017, 04:15:41 am »

Well, thatís quite bad
Really? I thought it was a splendid outcome myself.

So there's a lot of talk to be had. I haven't had a chance yet to go back carefully through day 1, and I haven't really processed Galzria's murder. All I have done is snipe simulating privileges to come up with probabilities of

4: 16%
5: 20%
6: 24%
7: 20%
8: 20%

...which seem really wrong, so somebody might want to check me on that.

Ten questions which might be of interest!
1. Why did scum kill Galzria?
2. Who did Galzria jailkeep?
3. Is Andrew town, and scum didn't care who got lynched? If so, why Dylan and not Andrew?
4. Is Andrew scum, and scum buddies got him off the lynch? If so, were they bussing and left?
5. With what significance can we attribute to the faust, LaLight, and Space miniwagons?
6. What do we make of faust accusing both Galzria and Dylan?
7. What do we make of both Galzria and Dylan accusing LaLight?
8. Did Raptor genuinely not realize he was hammering?
9. Do and when we proceed with the neighborizing plan?
10. What is Space's secret?

If you don't know the answer to any of these, then maybe an 11th? Like 'How did Skumpy manage to come up with 10 questions ranging from useless to maybe potentially useful, and why was he not voting on the final wagons?'


Ten questions is not a coincidence by the way, I just watched MOTOE so it's still fresh in my mind. We will see if my little grey cells are feeling up to the task at hand. I'll be more free and less delirious/insatiated to make said conclusions later.

PPE something by DatSwan which I probably won't read or respond to.
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LaLight

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #579 on: November 11, 2017, 05:09:06 am »

SO, scum tried to both frame and unframe me?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #580 on: November 11, 2017, 05:14:33 am »

Ah, they didnít know Galzí role so yeah, i feel framed
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #581 on: November 11, 2017, 05:23:49 am »

1. Why did scum kill Galzria?
2. Who did Galzria jailkeep?
3. Is Andrew town, and scum didn't care who got lynched? If so, why Dylan and not Andrew?
4. Is Andrew scum, and scum buddies got him off the lynch? If so, were they bussing and left?
5. With what significance can we attribute to the faust, LaLight, and Space miniwagons?
6. What do we make of faust accusing both Galzria and Dylan?
7. What do we make of both Galzria and Dylan accusing LaLight?
8. Did Raptor genuinely not realize he was hammering?
9. Do and when we proceed with the neighborizing plan?
10. What is Space's secret?

If you don't know the answer to any of these, then maybe an 11th? Like 'How did Skumpy manage to come up with 10 questions ranging from useless to maybe potentially useful, and why was he not voting on the final wagons?'

1. Because it's Galzria.
2. Someone. We have no real way of knowing. Probably someone he scumread, I'd have to go check, I only remember he townread me.
3. Probably. Coincidence.
4. Unlikely. Maybe.
5. I think there is something off with your grammar. Probably not much, at least yet.
6. You have a pretty good reason for why I'm not dead yet.
7. Galzria is the more interesting case here.
8. Most likely yes, I don't see how scum!Raptor benefits from a derphammer here.
9. Probably a good idea.
10. I actually don't think there's much of a mystery there.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #582 on: November 11, 2017, 05:24:53 am »

5) This comes from inexperience - but like.. if there is a Vig they would not of shot N1 right? Especially at Galz? Not anything worth considering there.
This is not a useful discussion to be had.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #583 on: November 11, 2017, 09:00:21 am »

So Faust, your top two scum reads are dead, but it seems to not have phased you at all and you say that Dylanís reads donít matter?  If I were in your position, I would acknowledge that I have some things to reconsider, but it seems like you are just moving on.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #584 on: November 11, 2017, 09:02:04 am »

5) This comes from inexperience - but like.. if there is a Vig they would not of shot N1 right? Especially at Galz? Not anything worth considering there.
This is not a useful discussion to be had.

But it kind of is. If a vig shot galz, that means a kill was possibly blocked.

On  another note, we probably want to all claim who we would neighborize before the day is over. Or is it N3?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #585 on: November 11, 2017, 09:03:02 am »

It is N2, so Iíll go first.  I would neighborize Faust.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #586 on: November 11, 2017, 09:34:32 am »

I don't see why we would claim neighborizing right now. If I were the Neighborizer, I'd certainly want more time to consider.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #587 on: November 11, 2017, 09:36:11 am »

So Faust, your top two scum reads are dead, but it seems to not have phased you at all and you say that Dylanís reads donít matter?  If I were in your position, I would acknowledge that I have some things to reconsider, but it seems like you are just moving on.
Well I have things to reconsider. I'm also moving on. I don't see how these two are mutually exclusive. And of course Dylan's reads are less important than Galzria's because Galzria was killed maybe for his reads, and Dylan wasn't. That is not controversial stuff.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #588 on: November 11, 2017, 09:40:18 am »

Right now townies are Andrew, Idplay, DatSwan. I don't think I want to lynch them today.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #589 on: November 11, 2017, 10:53:26 am »

Faust has a townie start to the day.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #590 on: November 11, 2017, 11:10:08 am »

Read D1.

Skumpy and faust are town

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #591 on: November 11, 2017, 12:30:10 pm »

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #592 on: November 11, 2017, 01:09:32 pm »

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.
Where can I see you genuinely scumhunt?
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #593 on: November 11, 2017, 02:11:08 pm »

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.
Where can I see you genuinely scumhunt?

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.

As a result, I eventually (correctly) identified Galzria as someone I didn't want to lynch.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #594 on: November 11, 2017, 03:30:20 pm »

5) This comes from inexperience - but like.. if there is a Vig they would not of shot N1 right? Especially at Galz? Not anything worth considering there.
This is not a useful discussion to be had.

yeah agreed. I was just thinking out loud. Couldn't sleep.
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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #595 on: November 11, 2017, 03:48:37 pm »

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #596 on: November 11, 2017, 03:49:45 pm »

All I have done is snipe simulating privileges to come up with probabilities of

4: 16%
5: 20%
6: 24%
7: 20%
8: 20%

...which seem really wrong, so somebody might want to check me on that.

Ten questions which might be of interest!
1. Why did scum kill Galzria?
2. Who did Galzria jailkeep?
3. Is Andrew town, and scum didn't care who got lynched? If so, why Dylan and not Andrew?
4. Is Andrew scum, and scum buddies got him off the lynch? If so, were they bussing and left?
5. With what significance can we attribute to the faust, LaLight, and Space miniwagons?
6. What do we make of faust accusing both Galzria and Dylan?
7. What do we make of both Galzria and Dylan accusing LaLight?
8. Did Raptor genuinely not realize he was hammering?
9. Do and when we proceed with the neighborizing plan?
10. What is Space's secret?

I got different numbers:

4: 10%
5: 15%
6: 30%
7: 20%
8: 25%

1. He either had good reads now or would have good reads later.
2. No idea.
3. Actually makes me think Andrew's scum.
4. See 3.
5. Probably not much.
6. He was wrong.
7. They both had scumreads on LaLight.
8. Not sure.
9. Yes and much closer to the deadline.
10. ...it's a secret?

PPE: 1

vote: Xx

Why?


Why not?

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #597 on: November 11, 2017, 03:53:26 pm »

Also, the probability of a given role being in the game has changed but I don't know if we talk about that. I was willing to when they were equal because, well, they were equal.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #598 on: November 11, 2017, 06:43:45 pm »

Awaclus and datswan are scum

Vote: Awaclus

That's not true. I promoted pro-town play for the entire duration of the day, you can see me genuinely scumhunt and I was off wagon for the town lynch.
Where can I see you genuinely scumhunt?

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.

As a result, I eventually (correctly) identified Galzria as someone I didn't want to lynch.

I'm not sure that's exactly the kind of community-spirited scum-hunting that most people think of when describing particular behaviour as scum-hunting.

I kind of feel like you're being more of a parody of yourself here than you often are. But you're an easy-to-push mislynch target, too, so I won't jump on the wagon yet.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 2 !)
« Reply #599 on: November 11, 2017, 06:47:30 pm »

I intend to have my own fun with the probabilities when I have spare time, which will be Monday night my time. We'll see whether I agree with any of the numbers already posted. I don't think extensive debate about probabilities will be super-helpful, but I at least want to check that nobody's trying to mislead everyone with bad numbers.

I'm going to be semi-VLA tomorrow, because my super-secret new partner and I are spending a day in London doing tourist things. @gkrieg, you and kkrieg would be utterly bewildered at how few things we're planning on cramming into our day.
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