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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 130909 times)

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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #225 on: November 04, 2017, 02:01:03 pm »

Right now I'm looking at lack of content rather than outright scumminess because I haven't seen anything that stands out D1. I think the longer posts will be more telling D2. Leaning town on Skumpy and DatSwan.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #226 on: November 04, 2017, 06:36:32 pm »

Well, because no one was talking, I ran some numbers on scum roles.

4: Nothing: 17.5%
5: Rolecop: 20%
6: Roleblocker: 37.5%
7: Rolecop and Roleblocker: 17.5%
8: Daytalk, Rolecop, and Roleblocker: 7.5%

Therefore,
Rolecop: 45%
Roleblocker: 62.5%
Rolecop and Roleblocker: 25%

Not entirely sure what it gets us, but it's something.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #227 on: November 04, 2017, 06:45:32 pm »

I could look into which roles we're most likely to have, but I don't know if that'll help scum more than town.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #228 on: November 04, 2017, 06:59:31 pm »

I could look into which roles we're most likely to have, but I don't know if that'll help scum more than town.

I did it anyway. They're all equally likely.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #229 on: November 04, 2017, 07:57:45 pm »

Hey raptor. Any opinions yet?

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #230 on: November 04, 2017, 08:13:12 pm »

Reread IDP expecting to want to vote him through inactivity, but I'm not feeling that right now.

Did you expect that because of this game or previous games with me?

I'd gotten the impression from my brief skim-read earlier that people were pointing out your inactivity/lack of content, but I didn't feel that your posts were particularly scummy-indicative when I re-read you. Which was marginally disappointing, because it would have made my job easier if there was someone being kind of clearly not-pro-town :-P

Oh, and @Andrew, you were scum in our very first encounter, so maybe you'll always be a bit scummy to me.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #231 on: November 04, 2017, 08:22:02 pm »

Thus the chance of 3 roles is 50%.

Nice result :-)  schadd's method is not what I would have assumed was the most obvious way to sort out the disallowed states, so I'd have come up with different numbers without that clarification. As it is, I haven't yet had time to work the rest of the role probabilities through myself yet, which was what I wanted to do with the algorithm overall, but it looks like IDP has done a pass :-)

ur mom is an obvious way to sort out disallowed states

uhh

yeah i'm just gonna click save
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 08:24:55 pm by schadd »
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Galzria

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #232 on: November 04, 2017, 08:23:07 pm »

Oh, and @Andrew, you were scum in our very first encounter, so maybe you'll always be a bit scummy to me.

I think you're a better player than that. Skumpy doesn't like that Faust and I aren't at odds because we were so much in his first game. I would expect that line of thought from newer players. But you've been around long enough and are good enough to make adjustment; to not let past biases influence current reads.

What had Andrew said that reads scummy to you?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #233 on: November 04, 2017, 08:38:59 pm »

To make that a little more clear:

I don't believe that you, Space, find Andrew scummy just because your first game with him he was scum. That's a weak reason. Tell me why, here, he's LIKE that first game - sure. I'll buy it. But you're much too analytical a thinker to see somebody scummily(?) because they happened to be scum before. Tell me why they're scum now, not that they're sum because of personal bias. I believe you can do that if you truly feel that he's scum.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #234 on: November 04, 2017, 08:45:43 pm »

Thus the chance of 3 roles is 50%.

Nice result :-)  schadd's method is not what I would have assumed was the most obvious way to sort out the disallowed states, so I'd have come up with different numbers without that clarification. As it is, I haven't yet had time to work the rest of the role probabilities through myself yet, which was what I wanted to do with the algorithm overall, but it looks like IDP has done a pass :-)

I also got a 50% chance of three roles.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #235 on: November 05, 2017, 01:03:43 am »

Sorry I was absent today. I'll post some more tomorrow.
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Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #236 on: November 05, 2017, 01:21:07 am »

Hm. Typical D1 so far. People trying to be useful. I hope we end up lynching scum, that usually helps alot
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #237 on: November 05, 2017, 03:00:12 am »

Is everyone in this game posting the bare minimum?

Request prods on Dylan and Raptor
@schadd: This was more than 2 days ago and Dylan still hasn't posted. Can we get a replacement please?

no
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 01:05:49 pm by schadd »
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #238 on: November 05, 2017, 03:02:36 am »

Not much more happening, huh? Shame. The people I'd look to for scum today are Dylan, Space, Galzria, Awaclus.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #239 on: November 05, 2017, 09:11:26 am »

Not much more happening, huh? Shame. The people I'd look to for scum today are Dylan, Space, Galzria, Awaclus.

The only person on your list I could support lynching today is Space but I'm not sure how much. Why not LaLight?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #240 on: November 05, 2017, 09:20:13 am »

Request prod on chairs

sent
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 01:06:20 pm by schadd »
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #241 on: November 05, 2017, 09:57:07 am »

Not much more happening, huh? Shame. The people I'd look to for scum today are Dylan, Space, Galzria, Awaclus.

The only person on your list I could support lynching today is Space but I'm not sure how much. Why not LaLight?
Why LaLight?
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #242 on: November 05, 2017, 10:11:45 am »

Not much more happening, huh? Shame. The people I'd look to for scum today are Dylan, Space, Galzria, Awaclus.

The only person on your list I could support lynching today is Space but I'm not sure how much. Why not LaLight?
Why LaLight?

He's used a bunch of posts to say nothing, his defense of the chairs vote, and his reason for voting DatSwan. I agree with your calling him out on the two votes.

Dylan32

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #243 on: November 05, 2017, 01:00:44 pm »

Hey guys. I'm really sorry I forgot to post a VLA! I was at a conference with basically no time for internet use. I'll try get caught up have some thoughts later, but we are just now about to start the drive back home.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #244 on: November 05, 2017, 01:25:52 pm »

To make that a little more clear:

I don't believe that you, Space, find Andrew scummy just because your first game with him he was scum. That's a weak reason. Tell me why, here, he's LIKE that first game - sure. I'll buy it. But you're much too analytical a thinker to see somebody scummily(?) because they happened to be scum before. Tell me why they're scum now, not that they're sum because of personal bias. I believe you can do that if you truly feel that he's scum.

I agree, I'd expect more from Space. Not sure if that's really scummy but it's not really how I'd expect them to play.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #245 on: November 05, 2017, 02:07:27 pm »

Not much more happening, huh? Shame. The people I'd look to for scum today are Dylan, Space, Galzria, Awaclus.

The only person on your list I could support lynching today is Space but I'm not sure how much. Why not LaLight?
Why LaLight?

He's used a bunch of posts to say nothing, his defense of the chairs vote, and his reason for voting DatSwan. I agree with your calling him out on the two votes.

After reading back...this.
I don't know if these are incredibly telling signs for scum or SCUMIDPTG cherry picking what should be really telling signs, or a bus even, but the fact that I didn't consider LaLight as scum in my first two reads sets of blaring alarms for me that he's scum. Not voting for him this second because a) he's always been courteous with me b) the man is engaged for crying out loud and c) I think there are better options....

Because I've had an epiphany!

I'm doing a Vote: XX. I would like to know how the triplets feel about his play here, but so far, there's a lot of similarities between this and 105. Assuming he is scum, I think this makes a good narrative for a faust/XX team - a good coach, with instructions to bus. And I think faust would very much be willing to get combatant with a teamed newisher player (not voting for faust because in the 99% chance I'm wrong with calling a D1 team, I'm mislynching him D1 when that was one of my like 2 pledges, and because I'm OK to wait him and Galzria out and see where the game takes us/them).

My non-lynch pool
DatSwan (Not the towniest, not the scummiest, but I'm exercising patience)
Galzria and Faust (I hate automatically giving them a pass, especially when I'm extremely distrusting of them so far. But as said, I'll hope they find a way to bury themselves if they're scum, because they're valuable assets as town)
Chairs (Lurky, but also townie. Not actually so sure on that anymore, but townie enough that I'm not doing it now)

My more-willing-tolynch-pool, in no particular order:
XX (see above)
LaLight (see above)
2.7 (Nothing he's done has changed my thoughts. And it bothers me he's gotten no attention)
Awaclus (Instincts)
Andrew (Empty townposting)
Sorry for accusing you 2+ townsfolk!

*Above is all subject to unforeseen change, also kinda expecting there to be scum in both lists and in those who I left off.

Last point: I'm still not sure how I'd expect players who didn't know me before to read me. Probably not going to try myself because it's worked out so poorly for me in the past.

(I'm still wall-of-texting, but at least it's more occasional!)
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #246 on: November 05, 2017, 02:45:01 pm »

Hey raptor. Any opinions yet?

yes, sorry i will do a full read list later this evening. I apologize for i can't get to it sooner, my weekends are hectic. 
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Galzria

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #247 on: November 05, 2017, 02:46:30 pm »

I'm doing a Vote: XX. I would like to know how the triplets feel about his play here

On the lurker side, I still think Raptor is scummiest - his responses have felt on point identical to me from his last game when he was scum - but I have no basis on which to judge his town play. Dylan could be scum, but there's nothing there to judge by. Andrew could be scum, but I'm withholding judgment for now.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #248 on: November 05, 2017, 02:56:22 pm »

I'm doing a Vote: XX. I would like to know how the triplets feel about his play here


[/quote]


I think he is playing similarly but IDK what that means exactly. I have only played that one game with him (105). While he flipped skum there on a "answer when asked" kind of demeanor, just because he is doing the same now doesn't sell me all the way on a XXR.
XXR!Faust seems like it would be likely if one flipped skum, but I kind of agree with GAlz on the Town!Faust read, so I don't think I can park on XXR today. 
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Galzria

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (now's the time, the time is now!)
« Reply #249 on: November 05, 2017, 02:56:56 pm »

Examples, fwiw:

First post 105:
Hey all, sorry I'm late to the party


Andrew's semantics argument reminds me of my own argument on Reggie D1 of M100, where Reggie was town and I was scum.

Once scum always scum.

vote:Galzria

First post 110:
Good evening everybody. For those that don't know, Triplets claim for Raptor, Swan and Me.

That said, vote: Raptor. He cracks easily when scum.

Hello all!

Oh the pressure is unreal...  vote: galzria

105:
Request prod on Xx
Sorry just a slow D1. Waiting for a slip up or something truly scummy. Still just trying who to find the scum amongst the rest.

110:
Is everyone in this game posting the bare minimum?

Request prods on Dylan and Raptor

Yeah I’m here and up to date. I just don’t feel like I have any useful info at this time. I’ll try to contribute more.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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