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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 43679 times)

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #200 on: November 03, 2017, 03:15:16 pm »

In other news, scum is totally hiding in people who aren't voting yet (looking at you, e)

Sorry Andrew. maybe this will be better:

After carefully weighing my options, I'm going to begin my mis-voting this game with a Vote: 2.718 (what is your preferred number of digits when people vote for you? Also hi)

Above feels very WIFOMmy to me. And that's pretty much it. Nothing else so far from him feels particularly townie.



Other people on who I've been looking at:

DatSwan: I don't know what to make of the first vote for me. I get it's RVS, I get it's supposed to funny, but I'm an interesting choice after you kept trying to get me lynched my first game. On the other hand, the setup post seems townie while the non-response to IDPTG does not.  Having said all that: I'm going to come out and say right now I don't want to or plan on lynching Swan on Day 1. Reasons I don't want to share for a while.

Raptor: I thought I'd be able to figure you out early based on knowing your 105scum play. I have not. I don't know if it's slightly more confidence as scum or a good coach or just plain town. Also wanting to leave you alone for a while.

Chairs: Agreed with faust, this isn't the scum Chairs I know. Still random, but it's not forced awkward random.

Faust & Galzria: There's something that feels off in this old married couple. Like faust is trying to start up the bickering and Galzria is shutting it down. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a scum coming out of this pair. It just doesn't feel natural. At the very least, I'm not joining everybody in townreading faust. Then again, not sure I ever will. I think for the most part, faust has been saying accurate stuff, but as I said before, that doesn't make me trust him more.


PPE Raptor's stuff (this took a while to write and edit)

Very good, thank you! I'm glad you're here to make these quality posts!
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Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #201 on: November 03, 2017, 03:21:27 pm »

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.
I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest.

Let me rephrase: I'd lynch faust for the time being.

Vote: faust

why not Galzria?

Because Galzria didn't reply to my post with "I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest".

Whatever faust says can and will be used against him in the court of Awaclus.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #202 on: November 03, 2017, 03:23:54 pm »

I see. I wasn't sure whether it was supposed to read (post and say) less than I have or post and (say less than I have).

FWIW, Dylan did not say anything in the posts that he did have.

Sorry for the confusion. It was meant to be read as the second one.

Andrew hasn't said anything either.

I'm saying things! It's just been a hectic couple of days for me.
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Galzria

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #203 on: November 03, 2017, 03:26:25 pm »

unvote

I've had enough there. Moving on to vote: Andrew for managing to post and say less than I have.
Why not Dylan?

Because he hasn't really posted. I've yet to see a lurker lynch go well. What makes you so certain we should follow LAL here?

People who post are consistently scum read far more than those who do not because, as is the case with say, Dylan, there's nothing of value to assign a read to. This is largely advantageous as scum. Further, it's hugely disadvantageous as town because not only are you not creating interactions now and helping to find scum, but in future days the lack of participation can castrate the ability of the town to find scum.

LAL is not always the most likely place to find scum, but it's often the most advantageous place to lynch early in the game - either to catch lurking scum or remove unhelpful (and even hurtful) town.

Scum doesn't get an advantage by lurking, scum gets an advantage by posting a ton until they convince town to vote for someone they want to lynch.

This is demonstrably and historically false in -most- (not all) cases. In most cases scum does enough to not be the target of LAL, while participating enough to make sure they have opinions posted and varied in nature. Most scum tend to fall below average in post count, but not at the bottom. Rarely does scum want to be the leading voice in the game pushing lynches through that they know will be mislynches - and this is especially true D1, when the odds of a lynch falling on town without their extreme help is particularly high anyway.

Further, even if scum is choosing to be a loud voice in the game, they're creating far more interactions than the quieter ones, increasing both the likelihood that they're caught down the line, and increasing the chances we can follow a trail from them back to their partners.

Yes, scum CAN be a top poster and a loud voice D1 - but it's far more likely to come from town, and even if it IS from scum they're generally not the best lynch choice anyway.

With that said, vote: LaLight. Scummiest (imo) of the "middle" posters (LaLight, e, Swan, Skumpy, IDPTG, Chairs).

On the lurker side, I still think Raptor is scummiest - his responses have felt on point identical to me from his last game when he was scum - but I have no basis on which to judge his town play. Dylan could be scum, but there's nothing there to judge by. Andrew could be scum, but I'm withholding judgment for now.

Faust is town. Skumpy is townie, but feels forced (he did last game too, and like Raptor, I have no basis for scum!Skumpy). Everybody else is middling to me.

I will not lynch Faust or Skumpy today. e would probably be my next most "don't want to lynch".

Why do you think Faust is town?

Personal opinion I suppose. Faust is a good player, but in LOST one of the things that persistently bothered me all game about him (and it was part of the final case on him) was that there were certain town!Faust ticks that were missing. I believe that he was less available than normal that game, yes. And I believe that impacted his play. I also believe he is certainly capable of making scum adjustments to match those town!ticks following a scum game where they were missing. I just don't believe that scum!Faust has done so here. He sounds and feels more normal to me, and it doesn't feel forced or faked.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #204 on: November 03, 2017, 03:40:58 pm »

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.
I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest.

Let me rephrase: I'd lynch faust for the time being.

Vote: faust

why not Galzria?

Because Galzria didn't reply to my post with "I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest".

Whatever faust says can and will be used against him in the court of Awaclus.

No, not really. I don't have to use anything against faust, he's scum until he proves that he's town.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #205 on: November 03, 2017, 04:04:57 pm »

I'd lynch faust or Galzria for the time being.
I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest.

Let me rephrase: I'd lynch faust for the time being.

Vote: faust

why not Galzria?

Because Galzria didn't reply to my post with "I mean, if you want tomorrow to go even slower, sure, be my guest".

Whatever faust says can and will be used against him in the court of Awaclus.

No, not really. I don't have to use anything against faust, he's scum until he proves that he's town.

SO glad this is a democracy.
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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #206 on: November 03, 2017, 04:12:02 pm »

Well okay, if you don't have reads, just vote Dylan. That way at least you'll do something helpful.

vote: Faust

Please don’t tell me what to do  :)

Why are you voting Faust for this?

1. I feel like he is trying to sway the vote of an unexperienced player (i.e. myself)

Are you saying we shouldn't be scumreading inexperienced players?

I don’t think you should tell someone how to vote. Especially without reason.
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #207 on: November 03, 2017, 04:32:57 pm »

SO glad this is a democracy.

But that's how it works. I can vote for him for no reason, he can't remove that vote unless he convinces me to remove it.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #208 on: November 03, 2017, 04:38:09 pm »

Well okay, if you don't have reads, just vote Dylan. That way at least you'll do something helpful.

vote: Faust

Please don’t tell me what to do  :)

Why are you voting Faust for this?

1. I feel like he is trying to sway the vote of an unexperienced player (i.e. myself)

Are you saying we shouldn't be scumreading inexperienced players?

I don’t think you should tell someone how to vote. Especially without reason.

Sorry I misread what you said originally. Disregard.
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faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #209 on: November 03, 2017, 04:58:33 pm »

unvote

I've had enough there. Moving on to vote: Andrew for managing to post and say less than I have.
Why not Dylan?

Because he hasn't really posted. I've yet to see a lurker lynch go well. What makes you so certain we should follow LAL here?

People who post are consistently scum read far more than those who do not because, as is the case with say, Dylan, there's nothing of value to assign a read to. This is largely advantageous as scum. Further, it's hugely disadvantageous as town because not only are you not creating interactions now and helping to find scum, but in future days the lack of participation can castrate the ability of the town to find scum.

LAL is not always the most likely place to find scum, but it's often the most advantageous place to lynch early in the game - either to catch lurking scum or remove unhelpful (and even hurtful) town.

Scum doesn't get an advantage by lurking, scum gets an advantage by posting a ton until they convince town to vote for someone they want to lynch.
That statement is still true if you substitute "scum" by "town".

Town can get an advantage by not sharing too much of their thought process.
That statement is still true if you substitute "town" by "scum".
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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #210 on: November 03, 2017, 05:06:16 pm »

SO glad this is a democracy.

But that's how it works. I can vote for him for no reason, he can't remove that vote unless he convinces me to remove it.

Fair enough, but you could make that statement for any player. Why did you choose Faust? Why not his "potential" PIC, Galz?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (now's the time, the time is now!)
« Reply #211 on: November 03, 2017, 05:36:47 pm »

Nope, this is our first encounter. Greetings! Experience of relevant nature = 1 game (105) in which I kept screaming that I have no idea what I'm doing, then stumbled into a victory.

Ah, cool.. I very rarely get around to reading games I'm not playing in, so you're still an unknown!


There's a setup (that I now think I actually do understand), let's see if anything can be done with it.

Yeah, I usually love mathsing out the setup, looking at distributions of probabilities and everything :-)


It seems a lot tougher for scum to come up with a plan than in my first game (which I am going to keep referencing because I have no other good sources, apologies in advance. The "I'm not the person to decide if a massclaim is good" is a tribute to that) because they don't really know what PRs are in play.

Yeah, I'm just troubled how you keep talking about planning for what scum would do, not any cool interactions that might help town. I know you said early on that you were sure you were going to be scum and therefore planned accordingly, but I still find it odd that someone with so much homework procrastination time hasn't now gone back and looked at things more from a townie point of view rather than keeping on mentioning the scum-sided view of the setup.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #212 on: November 03, 2017, 05:54:44 pm »

Hey @schadd :-) hullo!

You said in the setup post that the roles summing up to whatever number you've picked are chosen from the list of six options, with no repeats. Were they randomly chosen with equal prior probability of coming up, or something else? Might you specify that part of the algorithm? Thanks!

10 decide to choose 2 roles, 3 roles or 4 roles
20 choose n roles, no repeats; any particular combination of n roles is equally likely (nothing happens here to regulate the sum)
30 if the sum of the role numbers isn't more than 3 and less than 9 scrap it and goto 10
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 11:15:15 pm by schadd »
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #213 on: November 03, 2017, 06:07:20 pm »

Space Count

DatSwan (1): Dylan32
LaLight (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
Dylan32 (3): faust, AndrewisFTTW, LaLight
SpaceAnemone (1): Chairs
faust (2): Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828.....
2.71828..... (1): Skumpy
AndrewisFTTW (1): IDontPlayThisGame
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
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Awaclus

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #214 on: November 03, 2017, 06:13:05 pm »

Fair enough, but you could make that statement for any player. Why did you choose Faust? Why not his "potential" PIC, Galz?

Because reasons. I could go for Galz if others prefer him over faust.
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #215 on: November 03, 2017, 06:32:13 pm »

Lots of new posts to consider, don't have the energy or willingness to sit down and carefully comb through everything.

unvote

I've had enough there. Moving on to vote: Andrew for managing to post and say less than I have.
Why not Dylan?

Because he hasn't really posted. I've yet to see a lurker lynch go well. What makes you so certain we should follow LAL here?

People who post are consistently scum read far more than those who do not because, as is the case with say, Dylan, there's nothing of value to assign a read to. This is largely advantageous as scum. Further, it's hugely disadvantageous as town because not only are you not creating interactions now and helping to find scum, but in future days the lack of participation can castrate the ability of the town to find scum.

LAL is not always the most likely place to find scum, but it's often the most advantageous place to lynch early in the game - either to catch lurking scum or remove unhelpful (and even hurtful) town.

Scum doesn't get an advantage by lurking, scum gets an advantage by posting a ton until they convince town to vote for someone they want to lynch.

This is demonstrably and historically false in -most- (not all) cases. In most cases scum does enough to not be the target of LAL, while participating enough to make sure they have opinions posted and varied in nature. Most scum tend to fall below average in post count, but not at the bottom. Rarely does scum want to be the leading voice in the game pushing lynches through that they know will be mislynches - and this is especially true D1, when the odds of a lynch falling on town without their extreme help is particularly high anyway.

Further, even if scum is choosing to be a loud voice in the game, they're creating far more interactions than the quieter ones, increasing both the likelihood that they're caught down the line, and increasing the chances we can follow a trail from them back to their partners.

Yes, scum CAN be a top poster and a loud voice D1 - but it's far more likely to come from town, and even if it IS from scum they're generally not the best lynch choice anyway.

With that said, vote: LaLight. Scummiest (imo) of the "middle" posters (LaLight, e, Swan, Skumpy, IDPTG, Chairs).

On the lurker side, I still think Raptor is scummiest - his responses have felt on point identical to me from his last game when he was scum - but I have no basis on which to judge his town play. Dylan could be scum, but there's nothing there to judge by. Andrew could be scum, but I'm withholding judgment for now.

Faust is town. Skumpy is townie, but feels forced (he did last game too, and like Raptor, I have no basis for scum!Skumpy). Everybody else is middling to me.

I will not lynch Faust or Skumpy today. e would probably be my next most "don't want to lynch".

There's a lot here. Lots of thoughts come to mind.

1. I'm new, but I don't like LALling on day 1, if ever. Especially when the guy hasn't even been on f.ds in 2 days (what if he's really dead? How would we know?) I like the IDPTG stance on Dylan/Andrew (more on that in a sec)

2. Stuff on scum being loud vs middle: I'm inclined to agree on this stuff. But small problem that's actually not small at all. Who falls into your 'loud so probably not scum' category? Apparently, you, faust, and Awaclus. Would you all be posting this much if you were scum? I think I know the answer to that: yes, yes you would. Now if it was Swan or Raptor being really active and doing a lot of live discussing, that might be different. Point is, everybody's been posting an amount so far that I would not be surprised by were they scum (am I extrapolating? Yes. Do I know everybody well enough? No. Do I not care and am just saying that because I like to talk in absolutes? Absolutely!)

3: The Skumpy files: You said I'm townie, and I'm still offended because I want to be town. On the 'no basis for Skummy Skumpy' - here's your basis: anything that's not this. I know I'm not getting lynched today, so I guess I have time yet to convince you more.

More random thoughts:


Andrew: It was a lot of empty posting early. And you're not as belligerent or aggressive as I remember you being. Only reason I'm not voting for you now is for the 2.7 accusation, since you're the only person besides me who is currently wary of him. But that doesn't really convince me there's definitely a town amongst you two.

Awaclus: I was kind of expecting to have been voted for him by now, I am kinda surprised he has not addressed me at all yet (Yes, I know exactly what this means his next post is going to be. I am willing to live with those consequences). In addition to me being skum, I was also expecting to be on the other faction before this game started. And since I'm town, I just feel like it's all part of the plan for me to be against him. Concerns here are further reinforced by his determination there's a scum in faust and galz, which I understand. And speaking of which:

Faust and Galzria: I don't know how else to put this: I am extremely scared that there is a scum or 2 here, and that I have no way of ever figuring it out except by lynching, which means potentially mislynching them. There's suddenly no animosity here and they seem to be in unison on everything, which is an extremely stark contrast to 105. I think I want to leave them alone in hopes that scum will save me the trouble and nightkill them (faust I can't lynch because I can't read him, Galzria will probably be my default-lynch-if-everything-is-going-badly-and-I-need-some-explanation-why), but I beseech you all to keep this in mind: when there's trouble and mayhem afoot, it's coming from the head.

I feel so confident while I'm writing this stuff, and then I realize that makes it, what, 6 or 7 people I've accused now? If anybody else wants me to put some incorrect heat on them, give me a ring, happy to oblige!
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #216 on: November 03, 2017, 06:48:27 pm »

Reread IDP expecting to want to vote him through inactivity, but I'm not feeling that right now.
Skumpy is entertaining and new, so he can stay.
Galz and faust are fine as they are.
Awaclus is being Awaclusy.
Could quite happily vote Andrew; his contributions don't have much content. I tend to scum-read him anyway, though.
LL is being quiet mostly. His talking at corss-purposes to Awaclus about the weak neighbourizer make me think they're not a scum team.
Swan's fakable townslip then weird breakdown of not-the-setup are probably more from inattention than scumminess for now, I think. I was scum with him last time I played, and he doesn't feel quite the same.
Dylan isn't here. I usually like Dylan and his playstyle, so I'm happy not lynching him yet.
Raptor needs to put in some personal text somewhere that lets us isolate his posts for targeted re-reads!
chairs is lurky as usual. THe part where he's voting to lynch me is less good. Not averse to returning the favour, but there are better targets for now.
e is talkative. Would be nice if he engaged with discussions more. But the same complaint could be made about me too.

I'll vote: Andrew for tonight.
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (now's the time, the time is now!)
« Reply #217 on: November 03, 2017, 06:55:04 pm »

It seems a lot tougher for scum to come up with a plan than in my first game (which I am going to keep referencing because I have no other good sources, apologies in advance. The "I'm not the person to decide if a massclaim is good" is a tribute to that) because they don't really know what PRs are in play.

Yeah, I'm just troubled how you keep talking about planning for what scum would do, not any cool interactions that might help town. I know you said early on that you were sure you were going to be scum and therefore planned accordingly, but I still find it odd that someone with so much homework procrastination time hasn't now gone back and looked at things more from a townie point of view rather than keeping on mentioning the scum-sided view of the setup.

Yay! Accusations!

Firstly, good points have been made about the setup since. Just wanna throw it out there that I like faust's neighborizer plan for day2.

I wasn't preparing for skum setup strategy before the game start btw, setup stuff for me started after PM's were sent. The point is when I'm thinking about the setup: what do I know about town? Nothing - every role has a 50/50 shot (unless I'm a PR of course. But I'm definitely not one or anything). What do I know about scum? That thanks to my remembrance of dice games in 3rd grade, the middle values are more likely. The odds seem pretty good for 6 and very good for 6,7,8. I imagine that the best way to approach things is to assume the most likely scenario is indeed what is happening, and in this case, the most likely scenario(s) dictate we have a roleblocker. That should impact what town decides to do.

Honestly, the only decision town needs to make day 1 is whether to massclaim or not (and obviously it's not happening at this point, I get that). I don't see value in only partial claiming for any roles, it comes down to a desperate 50/50 on whether we have a doctor or not. The best part about mass claiming is that gives us potential to clear a bunch of townies. There is nothing scum can to do predict a safeclaim, unless they wait until the very end. If there's somebody who'll be on the chopping block with 5 hours to go and has to claim a role to save themselves, now we have to scramble. And quite frankly, I like having an IC around to manage the game and keep people in check.

The setup post anyways was more about me rejecting RVS than anything, I knew there wasn't going to be a massclaim. Until your last post, I hadn't thought about setup, I felt there was enough to go off to start casting votes. If we're still alive for it, you can believe the first thing I'll be doing day 2 is taking another look at the setup and situation.
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #218 on: November 03, 2017, 07:05:50 pm »

Reread IDP expecting to want to vote him through inactivity, but I'm not feeling that right now.

Did you expect that because of this game or previous games with me?

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #219 on: November 03, 2017, 07:17:02 pm »

Reread IDP expecting to want to vote him through inactivity, but I'm not feeling that right now.
Skumpy is entertaining and new, so he can stay.
Galz and faust are fine as they are.
Awaclus is being Awaclusy.
Could quite happily vote Andrew; his contributions don't have much content. I tend to scum-read him anyway, though.
LL is being quiet mostly. His talking at corss-purposes to Awaclus about the weak neighbourizer make me think they're not a scum team.
Swan's fakable townslip then weird breakdown of not-the-setup are probably more from inattention than scumminess for now, I think. I was scum with him last time I played, and he doesn't feel quite the same.
Dylan isn't here. I usually like Dylan and his playstyle, so I'm happy not lynching him yet.
Raptor needs to put in some personal text somewhere that lets us isolate his posts for targeted re-reads!
chairs is lurky as usual. THe part where he's voting to lynch me is less good. Not averse to returning the favour, but there are better targets for now.
e is talkative. Would be nice if he engaged with discussions more. But the same complaint could be made about me too.

I'll vote: Andrew for tonight.

If you want content all you gotta do is ask. Voting for me implies that you're scumreading me. Is that true?
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia
« Reply #220 on: November 03, 2017, 11:17:37 pm »

Vote count 1.2

DatSwan (1): Dylan32
AndrewisFTTW (2): IDontPlayThisGame, SpaceAnemone
LaLight (1): Galzria
Dylan32 (3): faust, AndrewisFTTW, LaLight
SpaceAnemone (1): chairs
faust (2): Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus
IDontPlayThisGame (1): 2.71828...
2.71828... (1): Skumpy

not voting (1): DatSwan

with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. day 1 ends tuesday, november 7th at 21:00 forum time.

mod notes
  • dylan has been prooded.
  • galzria & datswan are VLA.
mod quotes
What happens if a neighborizer gets roleblocked?

the action fails; no neighborhood opens, no dying happens.
To elaborate on this: if anybody wants to do my homework for me that was due last Sunday, shoot me a PM!

if it's math u need to do it urself because it's important to learn and if it's not math then i don't feel like it
Question - since this set up is different then 108 (no drafting) did skum find out about their PRs in like the “pre-twilight” game stage with time to talk about their game plan or after the game started?

scum were made aware of their factional abilities in N0 if they have them.
Hey @schadd :-) hullo!

You said in the setup post that the roles summing up to whatever number you've picked are chosen from the list of six options, with no repeats. Were they randomly chosen with equal prior probability of coming up, or something else? Might you specify that part of the algorithm? Thanks!

10 decide to choose 2 roles, 3 roles or 4 roles
20 choose n roles, no repeats; any particular combination of n roles is equally likely (nothing happens here to regulate the sum)
30 if the sum of the role numbers isn't more than 3 and less than 9 scrap it and goto 10

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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'
6-9
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beloved my john, i'll carry on

faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #221 on: November 04, 2017, 06:06:58 am »

I'll do a reread soon if I have time.

Do you really need to reread here, or are you just trying to give the illusion of participation? There's what? 100 posts so far? This has been the slowest D1 in my memory.

Good point. Vote: IDPTG

Lame. Don't like it. I feel like I hear someone complain about how slow D1 is every game.
I feel like every game these days has horribly slow D1s. Especially those where there isn't much setup talk to be done.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #222 on: November 04, 2017, 06:19:43 am »

Hey @schadd :-) hullo!

You said in the setup post that the roles summing up to whatever number you've picked are chosen from the list of six options, with no repeats. Were they randomly chosen with equal prior probability of coming up, or something else? Might you specify that part of the algorithm? Thanks!

10 decide to choose 2 roles, 3 roles or 4 roles
20 choose n roles, no repeats; any particular combination of n roles is equally likely (nothing happens here to regulate the sum)
30 if the sum of the role numbers isn't more than 3 and less than 9 scrap it and goto 10

It's interesting that this algorithm makes it so not all numbers of roles are equally likely.

For 2 roles, there are (6 choose 2) = 15 possible picks. Out of these, 5 lead to termination. I.e. if 2 is chosen in step 10, then there's a 1/3 chance of reset.
For 3 roles, there is no combination that causes a reset.
For 4 roles, there are also 15 possible picks. Total sum of picks is 12, so those that are larger than 8 are exactly those where the not-chosen ones are smaller than 4, i.e. the inverse settings of the 2 role scenario. So also a 1/3 chance of reset.

The chance of 2 or 4 being chosen is thus 1/3*2/3 + 1/3*1/3*1/3*2/3+(1/3)^4*1/3*2/3+... or put differently, 2/9*sum( (1/9)^i) = 2/9*9/8=1/4.

Thus the chance of 3 roles is 50%.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #223 on: November 04, 2017, 06:30:57 am »

1. I'm new, but I don't like LALling on day 1, if ever. Especially when the guy hasn't even been on f.ds in 2 days (what if he's really dead? How would we know?) I like the IDPTG stance on Dylan/Andrew (more on that in a sec)
Well, worst comes to worst, I hope we get a replacement. I should note that I am specifically not voting for him because of his absence, but because of what he posted before that, which was all hollow, but not with the townie kind of vibe that Andrew gives off.

2. Stuff on scum being loud vs middle: I'm inclined to agree on this stuff. But small problem that's actually not small at all. Who falls into your 'loud so probably not scum' category? Apparently, you, faust, and Awaclus. Would you all be posting this much if you were scum? I think I know the answer to that: yes, yes you would. Now if it was Swan or Raptor being really active and doing a lot of live discussing, that might be different. Point is, everybody's been posting an amount so far that I would not be surprised by were they scum (am I extrapolating? Yes. Do I know everybody well enough? No. Do I not care and am just saying that because I like to talk in absolutes? Absolutely!)
Well, Swan has actually been more active here than in M108's D1. He's just VLA now.

Faust and Galzria: I don't know how else to put this: I am extremely scared that there is a scum or 2 here, and that I have no way of ever figuring it out except by lynching, which means potentially mislynching them. There's suddenly no animosity here and they seem to be in unison on everything, which is an extremely stark contrast to 105. I think I want to leave them alone in hopes that scum will save me the trouble and nightkill them (faust I can't lynch because I can't read him, Galzria will probably be my default-lynch-if-everything-is-going-badly-and-I-need-some-explanation-why), but I beseech you all to keep this in mind: when there's trouble and mayhem afoot, it's coming from the head.

I feel so confident while I'm writing this stuff, and then I realize that makes it, what, 6 or 7 people I've accused now? If anybody else wants me to put some incorrect heat on them, give me a ring, happy to oblige!
Well you have a way, which is seeing if we're still alive later on, and seeing if we help lynch scum, and if so, how. That is usually the best way to deal with people that you cannot get a good read on otherwise.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 1 !)
« Reply #224 on: November 04, 2017, 01:54:52 pm »

I'm starting to feel like LaLight might be a better place to move my vote. His posts have been rather empty aside from a little bit about the Neighborizer, but that was all stuff from the Role PM rather than theory.
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