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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 39499 times)

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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1100 on: December 05, 2017, 04:31:52 pm »

It's not an appeal to emotion, it's just a statement of fact that it's lazy to try to cast me as scum when I've been just too busy to post a lot.

Who was doing that?

Sorry.. hadn't meant to leave this unanswered. I think the main way in which I've not played a strongly-townie enough game is that I've been too busy with work and life on the side. I couldn't do anything about the fact that most of the deadlines have been in the middle of the night for me, but the one I missed voting for entirely was at a point when I just wasn't engaged enough with the game because I had other stuff going on.

I get that real life gets in the way and yeah, those deadlines were horrible for EU players. But I still want to know who's saying you're scum for your lack of posts.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1101 on: December 05, 2017, 04:42:41 pm »

#974: Partner code? Town frustration at somebody who is actually scum? Who knows (Space does!)

Huh.. I thought I was really clear here, but both you and Swan have twisted/misrepresented it since. It was town frustration at someone else on the offchance they're town too, because if Swan is town, he's trying really hard but not necessarily pushing in a good direction. My conclusion now is that he's probably scum anyway, but at the time I was willing to believe he was just over-enthusiastic town.

To summarize, in post #971, Swan had gone through a whole list of possible scum pairings, and in it, he included the pairing that was him and me. Then he suggested for that particular pairing that "I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more", which is a ridiculous thing to suggest for something he must know for certain is not a worthwhile scum pairing to spend time on. If he's town, he knows for certain that it's a waste of time because he's town, so Swan-Space is impossible. If he's scum, he knows for certain I'm town anyway, but obviously there's at least some scum motivation for wanting to waste town's time by getting someone to spend time re-reading and commenting on the me-Swan interaction. At the time, I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of alignment, so I just suggest that he might be trying too hard to broadcast towniness without actually thinking about how best to use our limited resources.

Anyway, I now think he's my top scum pick, so it's easier to go back and ask who in their right town mind would suggest that other busy townies spend time considering a particular scum pairing that contains themselves as a known town and another player whose alignment they don't possibly have any way of knowing about.

So for the one line where I said "someone that is not me should look at this", is the same reason why I include myself in all pairings. I assume people are not looking at each pair potential as only an individual potential scenario. When I run down the list of remaining possibilities, especially at a time when there are so many remaining, the fundamental reason behind it is to find connections or similar themes among players that lead to suspicion or inconsistencies in their actions.

I consider my job as town to consist of essentially 3 things:
1) Try to lynch skum
2) Try not to lynch town
3) Try not to let yourself get lynched

If I think having people read over a set of information may lead to skum-catching conclusions while simultaneously helping town players remove me from their lynch pool... Yeah, I am gonna bring that up each and every time. To not do so would just be like an attempt at failing your wincon.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1102 on: December 05, 2017, 04:45:00 pm »

I think IDP was the one who had everything rounding to 5% endings.

I wouldn't intentionally post incorrect math. I got lazy when I was doing the numbers (I was at work and only had a phone to write things down on) and didn't adjust the probabilities properly, as you explained in your post refuting my numbers.

Yeah, but from my point of view, 2/3 of my lynch pool posted bad maths, and the one remaining person can't be both scums... so for me and town!Skumpy, someone who posted bad maths has to be scum, and I got the feeling that Skumpy was evaluating the same error from you and Swan differently to suit his narrative.
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1103 on: December 05, 2017, 07:54:27 pm »

I think IDP was the one who had everything rounding to 5% endings.

I wouldn't intentionally post incorrect math. I got lazy when I was doing the numbers (I was at work and only had a phone to write things down on) and didn't adjust the probabilities properly, as you explained in your post refuting my numbers.

Yeah, but from my point of view, 2/3 of my lynch pool posted bad maths, and the one remaining person can't be both scums... so for me and town!Skumpy, someone who posted bad maths has to be scum, and I got the feeling that Skumpy was evaluating the same error from you and Swan differently to suit his narrative.

It's actually 3/3 of your lynchpool; I screwed up the math on the start of day 2, thinking that all numbers of roles were equally likely. I tried though.

I'm not getting your point. You're saying that I should be making a decision between Swan and IDPTG solely based on who I think did a scummier job with the fake and/or wrong numbers? And there absolutely is a difference between the miscalculations.

Swan's post in #111 featuring not realizing there could be 2 or 4 PR's can't be a genuine mistake if he's scum. You (Space) are obviously going to crunch the numbers N0 with him if you're scum. Even with IDPTG's math mistakes and LL's busy schedule, I still have to imagine one of them would've too. And there's no way all 3 scum misread the setup. Scum!Swan knew the setup D1, so he was faking #97 and #111 in quick succession if he's scum. If he's town, then it was genuine. I do believe it could be a genuine town mistake from him. But I don't know if he would scheme that much as scum, you'd know better than me since you were scum with him 1.5 times. The point is: if I think Swan wouldn't intentionally misdo the setup, then I know he's my town partner. So do I think he would? Very hesitant, 'no, I think it's townie'. At any rate, it's not the make-or-break sign for me.

In #596 though (IDPTG's multiples of 5), Galzria was killed and scum wasn't able to discuss the new probabilities unless they planned for all 4 scenarios where they kill a VT, a 1, a 2, or a 3 (not to mention a vig shot or a Doc heal or a Jailkeeper Save). I know that wouldn't happen with a Swan/IDPTG team. Would you (Space) have done that? I'd hope not. Obviously wrong probabilities is so pointless to do if he's scum that I think it's an honest mistake from either alignment. I know as scum, I wouldn't post wrong probabilities when I'm trying to impress all you better math and sciencey people with my good reasoning skills (which never happens from townme anyways).

TL:DR - Swan's mistakes were calculated if he's scum. What does that tell me/us? Not sure now. IDPTG's mistakes were probably actual mistakes. I don't take away anything from that.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1104 on: December 05, 2017, 09:48:44 pm »

I feel like the accusations are getting more and more far fetched as we continue here. Which I suppose is good for town. Either way...

Andrew - do you see a downside in revealing your targets for vig kills?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1105 on: December 05, 2017, 09:54:30 pm »

I feel like the accusations are getting more and more far fetched as we continue here. Which I suppose is good for town. Either way...

Andrew - do you see a downside in revealing your targets for vig kills?

I'm not Andrew, but I don't. Scum knows who they killed and therefore who Andrew did. I think town can make some pretty good guesses though.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1106 on: December 05, 2017, 10:40:53 pm »

I feel like the accusations are getting more and more far fetched as we continue here. Which I suppose is good for town. Either way...

Andrew - do you see a downside in revealing your targets for vig kills?

I'm not Andrew, but I don't. Scum knows who they killed and therefore who Andrew did. I think town can make some pretty good guesses though.

Yeah just rather have a real answer if itís available
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1107 on: December 05, 2017, 10:53:51 pm »

Sorry I've been absent. Here's how I used my shots

N1 - Skumpy, obviously it didn't go through.
N2 - xxraptor
N3 - Awaclus (I was going to shoot Space originally, shouldnt've second guessed myself)

So are we lynching Space today? You guys wanna go ahead and yolo it (sorry for saying "yolo")?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1108 on: December 05, 2017, 11:26:37 pm »

Sorry I've been absent. Here's how I used my shots

N1 - Skumpy, obviously it didn't go through.
N2 - xxraptor
N3 - Awaclus (I was going to shoot Space originally, shouldnt've second guessed myself)

So are we lynching Space today? You guys wanna go ahead and yolo it (sorry for saying "yolo")?

Huh. I assumed you held your shot N1. Anyway, yeah, I'm willing to yolo it and if we lose, well, gg.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1109 on: December 05, 2017, 11:32:14 pm »

Anybody have a IDPTG town game handy?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1110 on: December 05, 2017, 11:33:13 pm »

Anybody have a IDPTG town game handy?

Every game of mine that wasn't my one scum game. Which one do you want?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1111 on: December 05, 2017, 11:33:34 pm »

Anybody have a IDPTG town game handy?

Every game of mine that wasn't my one scum game. Which one do you want?

My performance in NM10 was excellent.

^
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 11:35:40 pm by schadd »
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1112 on: December 05, 2017, 11:37:17 pm »

NM9, M94 (or whichever was Squid Girl), and M105 are ones I know I completed as town. I had some stuff going on that had me /outing from about half of my games, but things aren't like that now so I'm in games to stay. I can look through to see which other ones I was in. I can also find my scum game (you'll only need to read D1 since I was the first lynch).

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1113 on: December 05, 2017, 11:38:40 pm »

I wasn't in M105. It was M106 and M108.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1114 on: December 05, 2017, 11:41:32 pm »

M104 was my scum game. I was lynched on page 22.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1115 on: December 05, 2017, 11:45:21 pm »

I'll look at some games tomorrow. Gonna watch a movie right now.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1116 on: December 05, 2017, 11:47:18 pm »

Just wanted to give you some options as I remembered which games I was in. I didn't post there as much as I did here (I think) so a targeted reread wouldn't take too long.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1117 on: December 06, 2017, 12:07:38 am »

Sorry I've been absent. Here's how I used my shots

N1 - Skumpy, obviously it didn't go through.
N2 - xxraptor
N3 - Awaclus (I was going to shoot Space originally, shouldnt've second guessed myself)

So are we lynching Space today? You guys wanna go ahead and yolo it (sorry for saying "yolo")?

Hold the phone, what? Why on earth would you shoot N1? And more importantly, why on earth would you shoot ME N1? As an OMGUS for a D1, which I have repeatedly said I suck at? I honestly wish I had tried to lynch you now. Apology acceptance from before rescinded, since there wouldn't BE anybody left to apologize to had N1 gone through. I guess it's water under the bridge now, but sheesh, please don't ever try do that again.

(That was half-jest, half-serious. But I am not feeling particularly appreciative right now)


Huh. I assumed you held your shot N1. Anyway, yeah, I'm willing to yolo it and if we lose, well, gg.

Given that I now know Andrew has gone 0/3, plus would've tried to go for 2.7 over Teproc D2, I am now quite hesitant to follow here. Even though I ultimately probably will. If the team's IDPTG/Swan, nothing I can do about it once Andrew votes. I said this was the team I least suspect, I'll read back tomorrow and see if I feel the same way. Definitely wouldn't hammer tonight.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1118 on: December 06, 2017, 12:29:59 am »

Wow Skumpy. Dramatic much? You're right though, my reads have been awful this game. Maybe we should lynch you after all!
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1119 on: December 06, 2017, 12:41:16 am »

Wow Skumpy. Dramatic much? You're right though, my reads have been awful this game. Maybe we should lynch you after all!

Yep Yes Yep No.

Don't provoke me.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1120 on: December 06, 2017, 12:53:16 am »

Sorry I've been absent. Here's how I used my shots

N1 - Skumpy, obviously it didn't go through.
N2 - xxraptor
N3 - Awaclus (I was going to shoot Space originally, shouldnt've second guessed myself)

So are we lynching Space today? You guys wanna go ahead and yolo it (sorry for saying "yolo")?

So. I am OK with Space lynch, but still think IDP is the place to look.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1121 on: December 06, 2017, 02:27:07 am »

OK - thoughts regarding Vig kill choices thus far:

1) Even though aimed at 2 (possibly 3) towns, it is not the end of the world. XXR and Awaclus would of been prime targets for skum to try and lay up given the way the game was going prior to their deaths. If I, or any other town other than Space I guess, was shot instead of Awaclus last night, I almost think it certain everyone would be sitting around right now contemplating between one of those dead town players. As we now know they were Town, at least that scenario is removed. Just saying, whats done is done. We should not waste time dwelling on the past and try to make the most of what we have in front of us.

2) XXR - Whatever, I disagreed with this from D1. I don't think we really learn very much from him flipping town. I wanna politely point out I think it should earn me some cred for pretty much solo defending him based on reads, but whatever.

3) Skumpy no kill N1 - So... The only things in the game that could prevent this are Doc, Skum RB, and JK/Cop (Galz). At this point we know that Skum has an RB (3 for Galz, 1 for Faust, 2 for Andrew and 6+ has Skum RB in the mix). And then we clearly know that Galz was the JK/Cop. I guess we still don't know for 100% if there is a DOC/NEO, though I find it unlikely at this point.
I am trying to find a way to use this info, but without knowing who Galz targeted and who Skum blocked, or if there 100% is a doc or not, (though unlikely they would not of claimed by now in this situation) I just am finding too many variables to come to any solid conclusions on anything. Does anyone have anything they can think of?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1122 on: December 06, 2017, 02:32:23 am »

OK I will go back and quote block stuff later, but I have been doing a re read of Space/IDP and it is late. So pretty much here is my summary:

1) Space getting on Andrew for being "abrasive" in D1. I just... IDK, it could be a great play that is working on me, but since we know Andrew is Town, would Skum!Space really get all up in that? It just seems unlikely right?

2) IDP states the only person he would lynch on day 1 off a list that consists of all town confirmed players and Space ... is only Space.

3) and again... just ALLLLLLLLL the vote history. like just all of it. I think it is like super super likely it is both Space and IDP, but if it is one or the other I really am leaning on IDP here. Space being in andrews face, then disappearing D2 just seem like a lot of things that would happen if they were Town but if they were skum I already spoke to the first point and quite frankly I think they would make more of an effort to ensure they showed up on D2 to do like.... something.


My second choice is Space. So if that is where it is at, I am fine with that I guess. But I really think everyone should go back and re look at IDP.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1123 on: December 06, 2017, 09:38:26 am »

2) XXR - Whatever, I disagreed with this from D1. I don't think we really learn very much from him flipping town. I wanna politely point out I think it should earn me some cred for pretty much solo defending him based on reads, but whatever.

No.

OK I will go back and quote block stuff later, but I have been doing a re read of Space/IDP and it is late. So pretty much here is my summary:

1) Space getting on Andrew for being "abrasive" in D1. I just... IDK, it could be a great play that is working on me, but since we know Andrew is Town, would Skum!Space really get all up in that? It just seems unlikely right?

2) IDP states the only person he would lynch on day 1 off a list that consists of all town confirmed players and Space ... is only Space.

3) and again... just ALLLLLLLLL the vote history. like just all of it. I think it is like super super likely it is both Space and IDP, but if it is one or the other I really am leaning on IDP here. Space being in andrews face, then disappearing D2 just seem like a lot of things that would happen if they were Town but if they were skum I already spoke to the first point and quite frankly I think they would make more of an effort to ensure they showed up on D2 to do like.... something.


My second choice is Space. So if that is where it is at, I am fine with that I guess. But I really think everyone should go back and re look at IDP.

And this reads like scum getting cold feet about the bus.

1) So you're saying scum!Space plays nice with everyone?

2) What's your point?

3) If you really think "it is like super super likely it is both Space and IDP" then I don't understand your hesitation to vote for Space. Town!DatSwan doesn't need a scumread on me or Space to vote for us, just a strong townread on Skumpy. Scum!DatSwan, on the other hand, does care about who gets lynched even with a townread on Skumpy.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1124 on: December 06, 2017, 11:40:56 am »

Yeah, IDP's observations on Sean's change of primary target seem valid, however much I welcome a shift away from everyone in the game wanting to lynch me.

I know I appealed to everyone to look at how much I'm mismatched in at least one scum game I played, but out happens very frequently as town too, and it'd be remiss of me not to remind townirs of that.

I'm now at the start of my Absence.. currently awaiting a train to the airport; should be in Amsterdam in 3 or 4 hours. Still haven't finished writing my talk :-/
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