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Author Topic: M110: led zeppelin mafia (guess i'll keep on ramblin)  (Read 39314 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1075 on: December 04, 2017, 06:35:32 pm »

Now we're down to just three possible pairings, so pair-wise analysis works much better.

1) Swan-Skumpy
 * It kind of makes sense that these guys would get upset about me lumping them together if the actually are the scumteam.
 * Swan is voting for Skumpy from #63 up until he unvotes at #122.
 * They're both on the Andrew wagon in places 2 and 3 from #356 to #470 where Skumpy wavers. Might be slightly non-partnerish, given how much our scum team must be avoiding each other in general.

2) Skumpy-IDP
 * Skumpy and IDP are both on the Andrew wagon at #309, but IDP (who started it) moves off pretty much as soon as Skumpy joins.
 * At #672, IDP and Skumpy are the only two on the Raptor train. Non-partnerish.

3) IDP-Swan
 * IDP votes Swan from #103 to #153
 * There are pretty much no other instances of their voting histories intersecting at all.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1076 on: December 04, 2017, 06:36:05 pm »

Individual evidence/partner tells for each with Teproc
 
Swan:
 * He's briefly 3rd on the Andrew wagon behind Teproc in D1 (#331-#356).
 * He's the only non-conf-town (to me) person on the Andrew wagon at the end of D1.
 * Votes Teproc at #635, but then when the wagon is at 3 poeople, he bails and moves to Awaclus at #684. Skumbells.
 * Teproc votes him at #753, and stays there till voting e at #757. Could be giving Swan cover to join the lynch in a good position.
 * Swan votes Teproc from #780 to the lynch.
 
Skumpy:
 * Is on Teproc in the L-1 position for the lynch.

IDP:
 * Immediately follows Teproc onto the Raptor wagon at the start of D2, but then Teproc shifts to me only 5 posts later.
 * Briefly on the same wagon as Teproc #702-#753.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1077 on: December 04, 2017, 06:39:39 pm »

I think my vote states read makes me strongly favour Swan as the best scum candidate. The individual evidence on voting alone definitely leans that way, and the two possible Swan pairings seem stronger than the third possible pair, leading me to think he's a better bet overall.

Just for completeness, I think I'd favour IDP as his partner, but I'd want do a targeted re-read of both to look for interactions/mentions/responses to one another, and I don't have time for that right now.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1078 on: December 04, 2017, 06:52:55 pm »

Individual evidence/partner tells for each with Teproc

IDP:
 * Immediately follows Teproc onto the Raptor wagon at the start of D2, but then Teproc shifts to me only 5 posts later.
 * Briefly on the same wagon as Teproc #702-#753.

I tend to start D2 voting for my top choice from D1. Which was raptor. However, this game, since I didn't remember LaLight having much of a scumread on raptor but he was suddenly willing to vote him, I assumed LaLight was the Tracker/Motion Detector and saw something, so I was very willing to vote. And then LaLight wasn't the Tracker/Motion Detector, so that's also a thing. So yes, I followed LaLight, but that was because I mistook his vote for a PR and would have voted there anyway. As for when he moved his vote, I assumed he didn't want to be too obvious.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1079 on: December 04, 2017, 10:26:45 pm »

Basically, I equate Space's repeated "if you vote me, the game ends" with that post's "mafia-food" bit. Whether that's AtE is up for debate.

What does AtE stand for in this context?
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1080 on: December 04, 2017, 10:29:26 pm »

Now we're down to just three possible pairings, so pair-wise analysis works much better.

1) Swan-Skumpy
 * It kind of makes sense that these guys would get upset about me lumping them together if the actually are the scumteam.
 * Swan is voting for Skumpy from #63 up until he unvotes at #122.
 * They're both on the Andrew wagon in places 2 and 3 from #356 to #470 where Skumpy wavers. Might be slightly non-partnerish, given how much our scum team must be avoiding each other in general.

2) Skumpy-IDP
 * Skumpy and IDP are both on the Andrew wagon at #309, but IDP (who started it) moves off pretty much as soon as Skumpy joins.
 * At #672, IDP and Skumpy are the only two on the Raptor train. Non-partnerish.

3) IDP-Swan
 * IDP votes Swan from #103 to #153
 * There are pretty much no other instances of their voting histories intersecting at all.

* It kind of makes sense that these guys would get upset about me lumping them together if the actually are the scumteam. - literally the only comment I ever made on this was defending you saying I thought people were reading too far into your comment. In THIS context, please don't lump me in with Skumpy. He did make a deal out of it with Teproc and Andrew and whoever, I absolutely did not.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1081 on: December 04, 2017, 10:30:45 pm »

Basically, I equate Space's repeated "if you vote me, the game ends" with that post's "mafia-food" bit. Whether that's AtE is up for debate.

What does AtE stand for in this context?

I was going for "Appeal to Emotion" but people seem to disagree on whether it's applicable. I felt that my emotions were appealed to.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1082 on: December 04, 2017, 10:34:06 pm »

It's not an appeal to emotion, it's just a statement of fact that it's lazy to try to cast me as scum when I've been just too busy to post a lot.

Who was doing that?

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1083 on: December 04, 2017, 10:40:57 pm »

Individual evidence/partner tells for each with Teproc
 
Swan:
 * He's briefly 3rd on the Andrew wagon behind Teproc in D1 (#331-#356).
 * He's the only non-conf-town (to me) person on the Andrew wagon at the end of D1.
 * Votes Teproc at #635, but then when the wagon is at 3 poeople, he bails and moves to Awaclus at #684. Skumbells.
 * Teproc votes him at #753, and stays there till voting e at #757. Could be giving Swan cover to join the lynch in a good position.
 * Swan votes Teproc from #780 to the lynch.
 
Skumpy:
 * Is on Teproc in the L-1 position for the lynch.

IDP:
 * Immediately follows Teproc onto the Raptor wagon at the start of D2, but then Teproc shifts to me only 5 posts later.
 * Briefly on the same wagon as Teproc #702-#753.
I think my vote states read makes me strongly favour Swan as the best scum candidate. The individual evidence on voting alone definitely leans that way, and the two possible Swan pairings seem stronger than the third possible pair, leading me to think he's a better bet overall.

Just for completeness, I think I'd favour IDP as his partner, but I'd want do a targeted re-read of both to look for interactions/mentions/responses to one another, and I don't have time for that right now.

I don't like either of these posts. Not just because they are targeted at me, but because it is incomplete work and I find that strange from Space.

First off, it is clear it was gone into with a bias for making a case against me, not just looking at information. I am the only person that has any noted interaction for D1 at all. Complete disregard of the fact that while I am the only D1 "non confirmed town" on Andrew, that also Skumply obviously was not on anyone.

Additionally, as the only day we have actually lynched Skum was D2... The fact that Space had like no vote history is annoying. IRL stuff happens so like I am not holding lack of play against in any way, but it is kind of a large part of a puzzle that we cannot use to piece stuff together.

I am strongly leaning towards a Space-IDP duo. Since some seem to believe that Space flipping skum would absolve me, I am going to go ahead and update my list to say I would be fine lynching IDP or Space.
I prefer IDP, because I think that it is more likely.

Day 1) i am in fact NOT the "only non confirmed town on Andrew". Space was also on Andrew. IDP was on Dylan. Since we now know they were/are both town, makes sense for Skum to be split over 2 town wagons.

Day 2)  Nothing to be gained from duo pair because space didn't do anything.

Day 3) Again Space and IDP split over what we now know to be 2 Town wagons.

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Swowl

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1084 on: December 04, 2017, 10:58:17 pm »

also just pieced together Space's need to point out "i am the only non town confirmed player on Andrew" but a better point might be that we have to assume that there were 2 players on one of the wagons (or with a skumpy non vote, at least 1 player on each wagon).

Andrew = Swan and Space
Dylan =  IDP and Andrew (Obv, Andrew is removed from pool. Also, LL/Teproc here as well)
None = Skumpy


So. Just one day vote end, but focusing on this for a moment -

1) If Skumpy is skum = Myself or Space likely last skum
2) If Skumpy is town = IDP + either Space or myself as last skum

3) If Swan is town = IDP and either Skumpy or Space
4) If Swan is skum = probably either IDP or Skumpy

5) If Space is skum = IDP or Skumpy
6) If Space is town = IDP and either Skumpy or Swan

7) If IDP is skum = probably either Skumpy/Swan or Skumpy/Space
8) If IDP is town = guess kind of a toss up between Space, Swan and Skumpy (most likely Space or Swan, then looking at skumpy)


The Skumpy unvote kind of messes up everything, draws a lot of attention. Makes me think it is a townier play on that end. The rest of it kind of evens out. But then there is D2. The lack of vote from Space along with IDP being rando camped on Space with his vote.

And then there is D3 - with Space and IDP being again on separate town wagons!

I know I sound like a broken record here, but I think Space or IDP is where we should be looking.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1085 on: December 04, 2017, 11:14:25 pm »

I know I sound like a broken record here, but I think Space or IDP is where we should be looking.

I'm okay with this.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1086 on: December 04, 2017, 11:52:08 pm »

Definitely don't agree with Space that scum's going to try to distance themselves around lynches. Usually? Sure. Always? No way.


Reading, important thoughts relating to teams as I go. Super important in bold. Please open another tab so you can follow along. Or just townread me and spare yourselves the agony, I don't care.

#61: As an aside to dead faust: 2/3 correct. It's passing I suppose. Was wrong though about scum supporting me. Then again, so was I.

#66: The Space/LL banter. Not gonna try to read into that.

#92: Space tests the water with me. Good way for scum to distance themselves around, as Space keeps preaching, since nobody had started on me yet.

#97: The Swan-setup question, which IDPTG quickly pounces on. Fake setup misunderstandings are definitely not something I would or could do as scum, but I'm not going to extend that to scum!Swan. I'd agree with Awaclus in #107, that by itself doesn't tell much. #115 could very well be partnery stuff. Check the pronouns (what, was I no good for you? Also since nobody ever asked me, it/it/its is also acceptable in my case), hint to a newbee buddee that it's too much, get in a justified bus vote. If not teamed and only 1 is scum: justified votes are music to scum's ears, but it's not a terrible accusation from TOWNIDPTG. Nobody else piles on for what that's worth.

#111: Swan talks setup and misunderstands it. Another confusion so soon? Would he play that dumb? ...I still don't know. There's no way its genuine if he's scum, definitely Space and probably LL or IDPTG would've broken down the setup in N0. schadd did change the setup later on, could've been Swan already planning from way before the game started? I really don't know, I can definitely believe the setup change was overlooked. Would Swan put that much work into something that he knew was wrong? I'd really hope he wouldn't waste the time to do that. So I'd lean town on this, but maybe I underestimate the will to win. A Swan's gotta do what a Swan's gotta do.

#122: Unvotes me when there's no pressing need to (Galzria, #137). He explains it...eh. I also wonder why town!Swan would come after me again when he was after me the whole game our first time. I knew I was going to be much more cautious with respect to my scumreads from before. For good reason!

#128: People criticized IDPTG wanting to do a reread so soon, I didn't really understand. When it's easy to get caught up, you might as well.

#144: I didn't notice the error the first time around, so I'm not going to put much weight on this. I need to keep reminding myself that with the partner interactions left, there's always going to be a scum there, so maybe I should be looking for something, like SCUMIDPTG skipped over the post hoping for something juicier to use against somebody? That was pulled out of nowhere.

#150: I mean, not far off from me my first game. Could've been inspired by me ( :) ). Could've fallen into the same trap.

#153: IDPTG's convinced it's genuine. I suppose it's easier to give in when you're looking for 3 scum out of 12 than 2 out of 3. If I was scum bussing, I know I'd ride that out for much longer. Or it could be, like, get your partner to talk and be loud, then go after the middle-lurky people, like Galzria said later.

#176: Reeeallly agree with this. Which worries me. Scum wants to be sensible.

#183: DatSwan went to a conference. That's sketchy (I promise I won't do that again!)

#216: SpaceReads: Null towards LL. Null towards DatSwan. Null towards IDPTG. Great. The comment on IDPTG (wanting to vote through inactivity, not feeling that) kinda feels like a cutesy team post. I don't know what I'm saying.

#224-225: IDPTG willing to go to LL. Doesn't, even when more attention comes his way later (more = Dylan). Plans to put if off until D2. Leans town on DatSwan. In the words of Cha Cha Slide, "REVERSE, REVERSE!" (that takes me back). Does Scum throw one partner under the bus one post, give the other town cred after accusing them earlier. I'm cool with that logic.

#230: I could see this as partnery. I'm giving nobody the benefit of the doubt apparently...

#239: But THAT does not seen right to do. Good sign for nonteam IDPTG/Space.

#242: Maybe there is some mustard behind the threat after all. D1 unneeded bus against a 6+ PR's is a risk. Do need to remember LL isn't actually voted for by IPDTG.

#251: And that's a shot against Swan/IDPTG. IDPTG's willing to vote LL, Swan does it first inviting IDPTG to join him. Note that IDPTG does not, in fact, join. Scum Swan would be basically forcing his partner to join him because boy, that would look bad if LL flips and IDPTG doesn't participate immediately.

#260: Vote, don't prod!

#267: Swan switches away from LL, whose wagon is growing...onto Space, and acknowledges willingness to vote for IDPTG too. So ScumSwan was voting a scum, and is willing to vote another. I could see a Swan/Space team, switch from the scar y wagon to the safe wagon. Get Dat Bus in Dat Swan.

#274: LL making small talk with IDPTG. Willing to vote Swan. Null on Space. There's 3 partners there. I don't know where though.

Random: Only 2.7 has really pushed IDPTG. I never like those above suspicion, which is why I'm so self-loathing.

#331: Swan acknowledges he could go for IDPTG. Doesn't. I'm null on this at this point in the day, the lynch wasn't happening..

#338: That Space mixup post again. My favorite. Now there are possibilities for the Space/Swan team.

#340: One scum in scum reads vs 4 town in scum reads and both scum in town reads? Ewwww. No to the Space/IDPTG team. Or town Space is really wrong.

#356 Swan puts 1 scum in scum reads, splits last 2 potential scum betewen null/scum and scum. Think I like the Swan/Space team a little more than Space/IDPTG.

Overall: As an aside, IDPTG pushing Raptor. Turns out to be incorrect, but I see it as justified. Could go either way.

No need to push each other once it's clear it's going to be Andrew or Dylan. Now seeing that Andrew didn't want to claim to save himself unless absolutely necessary. Makes sense, I remember being awkward when people were trying to get my role out of me. Speaking of which, since I never actually claimed VT, just not-vig: I'm VT. It's a lot less fun than having a role, but it's much less stressful too.

In the end, 2 scum on 1 wagon, 1 scum on the other. Nothing doing there. Space and Swan being together isn't making me discount that team more.

Order of teams after D1 in order of suspicion:
1) Swan/Space
2) Space/IDPTG
3) Swan/IDPTG

I'm really glad I waited until Andrew claimed.




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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1087 on: December 05, 2017, 12:39:01 am »

Well this is fun. We have four people semi-scumreading Space.

Quote fail. This did not mean to be quoted:

The D2 final vote is interesting. The only not confirmed town on the Teproc lynch are DatSwan and Skumpy. I think one of them is likely to be scum and then that would leave Space or IDPTG. I think we should start with an off wagon lynch, so I want to reread IDPTG as well.

Andrew lumping me and Space together as a 50-50.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but I think Space or IDP is where we should be looking.

DatSwan doing the same thing.

Order of teams after D1 in order of suspicion:
1) Swan/Space
2) Space/IDPTG
3) Swan/IDPTG

Skumpy putting Space in his top two scum teams.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1088 on: December 05, 2017, 12:45:29 am »

I don't think we should totally discount a Swan/Skumpy team though as this would be a perfect spot for them to be.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1089 on: December 05, 2017, 01:00:31 am »

Hey off note, on note thought I just want to clear here - We are like in silent agreement that we are not voting until the end for obvious reasons? Or what is the situation there? Do we declare when we are like really really OK to vote. Do we clear it with Andrew because he is IC? What is like the "protocol"? I have never been in this situation before.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1090 on: December 05, 2017, 01:01:01 am »

I don't think we should totally discount a Swan/Skumpy team though as this would be a perfect spot for them to be.

Whatever, I obviously would say this as skum too, but don't waste too much time on this idea. I am not skum this game.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1091 on: December 05, 2017, 01:03:34 am »

Day 2 time

#576: That townie Swan opening post. Maybe not as townie as I once remembered, and a lot less willing to give the benef o'doubt here with 3 left. But I'll keep it in mind.

#608: Swan, LL, IDPTG all talking around XX. Not accusatory enough for me to discount a team of 3, but it does have a weird feel to it. IDK!

#621: The second XX vote by 2 scum early. I'm really not going to read into this that much. XX was not towny day 1, IDPTG leaving that just because LL is already there would actually be more scummy, I feel. But it's also scummy to stay, naturally. Or at least untownie.

#626: A really weird post from by-now-really-distracted LL. Like's IDPTG"s scumhunting, it's sincere....then goes to Space? Trying to distance self from IDPTG off Raptor? Trying to throw in some busses? Like, one of them is scum, so at least one of those is right. But I don't know which.

#635: Swan votes scum for being on Andrew, might have one other scum in his lynchpool of 3. Again, an early bus. A little more serious because a faust read is serious. Still too early to make judgment calls I think.

#646: Space explains the newbie mixup. Doesn't push me much one way or the other

Discounting Space/IDPTG banter about setup. I would hope IDPTG naturally screwed up, because it's pointless if he didn't (watch it be a brilliant play for some mystery reason).

#671: IDPTG sneaking in some LL defense.

#683-684: Swan and Space both discounting the LL post that gkrieg harped on so much that would lead to LL's lynch. In retrospect, yeah that's a scummy shrugman. Both gloss over it (I feel that this kind of reading is super advantageous, but super timewasting). Swan even goes away from the vote.

#702: A nice casual vote of IDPTG onto Space, when both are under the radar.

#705: Space with reads of me (a still incorrect one), LL (a really weak townread that allows the possibility of future bussing) and Swan (reads him as 'really confused' - I kinda wanna see scum!Swan having done stuff intentionally and town!Space discounting it as idiocy)

I still haven't really read Teproc's reads. Not now, because I'm looking at teams. Is the line I'm going to use to defend my inertia.

#723: Swan saying he finds LL scummy. I wanna say this is a prime bus, but I keep assuming everybody's scum. If I go ahead and say Swan's town, then yeah, good job Swan. So null? This feels like a waste of time now.

Neighborizing targets:
faust: Andrew (Awaclus)
Swan: Raptor (faust)
Skumpy: faust (Space)
gkrieg: faust (Space)
2.7: IDPTG (Swan)
Raptor: faust (Swan)
Space: 2.7 (gkrieg)
Awaclus: faust (Space)
Andrew: Swan (gkrieg)
IDPTG: Teproc (gkrieg)
Teproc: gkrieg (faust)

We haven't actually discussed this at all. Here's a thought though. Let's assume a neighborizer would've stuck to the plan of neighborizing top alive target. I don't read too much into who scum says they'd neighborize. Scum kills faust (almost certainly) to blow up as many neighbor pairs as possible, not knowing if there's a neighbor or not. Here's the question: who gets roleblocked N2? What neighbors might have found scum? Only two: Andrew and 2.7. And one of them was guaranteed to neighborize a scum, if they were a neighbor. Unless scum has a rolecop, which it looks like they don't (gonna assume no neighbors or Neos at this point), how might scum choose to roleblock? Probably based on doing what they can to stop a neighborizer from dying. Who's roleblocked? Not Andrew, since he shot. If the team is Space/DatSwan, wouldn't Andrew have been roleblocked so as to make sure the neighborizer doesn't find scum? If it's IDPTG/Swan or IDPTG/Space, Andrew's not getting roleblocked. So that's interesting....

....or Andrew ruins it in #743. Still if the only potential person who can die to scum is Andrew, no matter how unlikely...why would he not get roleblocked?

#753: Teproc ends his reads with a vote on Swan (Idk what came before, I don't care THAT much). One or no scum in top two?

#769: IDPTG inquiring about a Teproc/Space team..I kinda like a WIFOM here.

#775: Now its Swan willing to switch to Teproc when the going gets tough.

#780: And he does. If I have the votecount correct, it's Teproc 2, Space 2. A Swan/IDPTG team, Swan goes for Space here.

Space, IDPTG, nowhere to be in sight at the end. That's not much help to the vote or to me now.

New order:
1. IDPTG/Space
2. Space/Swan
3. IDPTG/Swan

It's weird, because I think Swan is scummy for being the only unknown left voting Teproc. But I also think his teams are the least likely at this point. And it's not like IDPTG and Space being away gives them towncred.

PPE IDPTG's stuff: I am reading it, but I'm going chronological. Later.
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schadd

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (night 1 !)
« Reply #1092 on: December 05, 2017, 01:28:34 am »

Vote count 4.1

not voting (5) : Skumpy, DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW, SpaceAnemone, IDontPlayThisGame

with 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. day 4 ends thursday, december 7th at 23:00 forum time. few days.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1093 on: December 05, 2017, 01:34:58 am »

Day 3! I know you all love this

#864: (Apparently) I stand corrected. My first scumhunt, all for naught.

#882: Swan going after IDPTG for suspicious final voting. D1 turned out to be meaningless, we're not getting anything from that. D2...I still don't know. Is scum both off or is one on?

#886: I believe it, especially with the weird deadline time for Europeans. Not townie persay, but I don't think the missed deadline was intentional.

#897: Space gives IDPTG towncred. I remember in my first game faust (or somebody) saying scum is usually more decisive. So scum went out of their way that game to be as indecisive as possible. So not sure if I'm ready to appreciate IDPTG's wagon hopping.

#900's: Scum's chatting about Awaclus. I did it as town, so I don't care.

#905: Swan on Space's reads. IDPTG's town there too. Agreement on scummy gkrieg. Both cagey towards me. Other stuff. I forgot my conclusion.

#924: I kinda want to put my faith in 2.7 and go for Space. If I'm right, I pay my dues for going after him all game long. If I'm wrong, it's all his fault.

It's just a brawl over anyone that's not Space, IDPTG, or Swan. How comfy for 'em.

#955: Speaking of which, either town Space misses the mark or scum Space defends a teammate. Which is more likely?

#974: Partner code? Town frustration at somebody who is actually scum? Who knows (Space does!)

#992: Shots fired back to Space.

#993:: IDPTG willing to vote Space...who probably isn't getting lynched. Going to stay away from Awaclus, not that it matters much.

I'm tired.


#997: Smores

Well that accomplished nothing. Some back and forth between Swan and Space. That's it. Really bad 8-day day, which I hold blame related to.

Same order as Day 2, nothing pushing one way or the other strongly

1. IDPTG/Space
2. Swan/Space
3. Swan/IDPTG
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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1094 on: December 05, 2017, 02:39:32 am »

Present:

#1031: IDPTG saying vig should claim. I do. He pauses.

#1039: Scum can counter claim if they want. They don't. The longer the day goes, the more time they have to think about it (though I'm sure claiming was discussed). Swan stalls here. Which I would say is scummy....but so does everybody else. I don't know why we waited.

#1040: Don't forget the slip. Never forget a slip.

#1047: Now that is overly pro-vig. Also, easier to read if we have one less suspect, I do think proposing to wait makes it harder.

#1048: Just for the record: the role-fishing had nothing to do with it for me, though I tried to use it to justify. For me, it was the overall lurkiness and general unhelpfulness. Apparently, it was out of character for him, so should we play again, I'll give 2.7 the benefit of doubt next time around.

#1052: Hey, you try a 10 question list from D1 that doesn't incorporate Andrew! 'After being criticized for not being towncred, I give towncred': this is true. I realized that not going out on a limb at all wasn't going to help. Better to be wrong than to never try at all, except in the cases of certain tests and competitions and also nuclear warfare. 'LL vote': This is my crowning achievement this game. It was 4-4. I'm on town, Teproc's scum. I flip. I get scum lynched. We go home happily and then Andrew shoots Raptor in the head (I assume)

Which reminds me: Andrew: Who did you kill and why? I don't know how that helps, but it's info!

(Still replying to Swan) 'On D3 role confusion': It wasn't that I was confused, I just didn't think it mattered because it doesn't matter if scum roleblocks their victim or not because they wouldn't be alive to do anything. Which I realize isn't true because a vig could've shot otherwise or a doctor could heal them.

'Skumpys-(patented)-something': I was trusting you and tunneling the Teproc-bus idea, so I dived in without really considering. Stopped because I didn't have time to finish, glad I did because it wasn't going to be accurate.

'Case for Awaclus': He wasn't getting lynched. So I moved my vote.

I feel like my votes are much less calculated than 105, but I'll take the compliment. 66% chance you're scum ignoring previous team reads...I don't know. All you have to do is give one townie towncred to get them on the mislynch. And I'm gullible, so I'm a good option.

#1059: No reaction to the vig claim?

#1069: A reminder that Swan should be my top pick, despite the team-reads, thanks Andrew! Then again, even if Swan is scum, I still need to pick right between IDPTG and Space sooner or later, doesn't do much to wait another day to figure it out.

Hey, AtE is my shtick! Although it's always been genuine so far.

#1075: The Skumpy-Swan team: This is in my defense, but still....just don't agree with scum ALWAYS keeping distance between each other. Please don't reevaluate this team though.

#1082: That is true. I haven't given Town points for Space being away a la D2, but I've never accused people of being scum for away either. I even defended Dylan many years ago when he was getting lynched.

#1083: See the end of #1052 above. Good on you if you're town! Emphasis on the if. Emphasis on the Emphasis.

#1084: I don't understand why everybody cares about the D1 wagons. Both were on town. Hooplah, congrats to us! My first time, all 3 scum were on the main wagon. I know it was 2 and 1 one way or another here, and that's the extent of my interest.

#1085: Hmm (that's my whole reaction)

#1087: This does scare me. A lot. Because there's a scum who's willing to vote Space. It is worth remembering a bus doesn't end the game for scum. And if Space is town, then I'm sorry for encouraging a sorry ending.

Now moving to quotes (idk why)

I don't think we should totally discount a Swan/Skumpy team though as this would be a perfect spot for them to be.

I agree

Hey off note, on note thought I just want to clear here - We are like in silent agreement that we are not voting until the end for obvious reasons? Or what is the situation there? Do we declare when we are like really really OK to vote. Do we clear it with Andrew because he is IC? What is like the "protocol"? I have never been in this situation before.

Ditto the confusion, (alarms are up again), but I'd say declare the vote, and don't start too late. Here's the thing: Andrew hates sheep. He's not going to do the first vote. I don't want to do the first vote because I'm allergic to responsibility (unless Andrew makes me and I have no other option). We have 3 days to deadline. Somebody has to take the plunge, preferably not me. But the longer the game goes on, the more advantageous for scum. I guess I'll get it started in like 48 hours if nobody else has yet.





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Skumpy

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1095 on: December 05, 2017, 02:47:24 am »

I just ruined my entire Monday afternoon/evening/night accomplishing nigh.

All 3 suspects are likely to be scum, so when I talk, I need to assume the worst of them. It goes against my principles.

Final ordering was:
1. IDPTG/Space
2. Swan/Space
3. Swan/IDPTG

I started the journey neutral, I'm pretty sure some bias against Space kicked in at some point. Doesn't make it wrong though. The team is probably IDPTG/Swan knowing my luck/skill, I'd still be willing to vote for Space most.

Between Swan and IDPTG: the list suggests IDPTG should be more suspicious for me than Swan...but it's strange to talk to Swan trying to view him as town. I don't know how to explain that better. So Space first choice, and if I have to choose between the others, I can read back everything I just wrote and try to come up with something. Tentative don't wanna lynch IDPTG for now.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1096 on: December 05, 2017, 10:00:48 am »

Definitely don't agree with Space that scum's going to try to distance themselves around lynches. Usually? Sure. Always? No way.

This is why I go through systematically and try to note all the times across the whole game where the interactions happen, or point out where they're conspicuously missing. That way we expect to see some kind of a pattern on the whole.

What I've gathered from that exercise is that this scum team is really very reluctant to bus overall, because any possible pair of the three of you are giving us very little to look at.

#111: Swan talks setup and misunderstands it. Another confusion so soon? Would he play that dumb? ...I still don't know. There's no way its genuine if he's scum, definitely Space and probably LL or IDPTG would've broken down the setup in N0. schadd did change the setup later on, could've been Swan already planning from way before the game started? I really don't know, I can definitely believe the setup change was overlooked. Would Swan put that much work into something that he knew was wrong? I'd really hope he wouldn't waste the time to do that. So I'd lean town on this, but maybe I underestimate the will to win. A Swan's gotta do what a Swan's gotta do.

Okay, so at least two of you (that's "you" as in my three-person lynchpool) posted nonsense likelihood numbers in-thread earlier in the game, right? Was it Swan and IDP? I think IDP was the one who had everything rounding to 5% endings. However if you're town (that's Skumpy-you), then from your point of view either the scumteam has to be Swan-IDP, in which case they're both faking a misunderstanding of the numbers, or (again, just from your point of view) I'm scum with one or other of them, in which case one of them is going to great lengths with me to fake a misunderstanding and invent a load of bad maths. So why are you pointing at Swan and saying he's likely to be less scummy because of his corner of the misunderstanding?

[Sorry if I'm misremembering who posted what set of numbers; I don't have time to go check right this minute!]
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1097 on: December 05, 2017, 12:14:44 pm »

#974: Partner code? Town frustration at somebody who is actually scum? Who knows (Space does!)

Huh.. I thought I was really clear here, but both you and Swan have twisted/misrepresented it since. It was town frustration at someone else on the offchance they're town too, because if Swan is town, he's trying really hard but not necessarily pushing in a good direction. My conclusion now is that he's probably scum anyway, but at the time I was willing to believe he was just over-enthusiastic town.

To summarize, in post #971, Swan had gone through a whole list of possible scum pairings, and in it, he included the pairing that was him and me. Then he suggested for that particular pairing that "I guess someone who isn't me should look into this more", which is a ridiculous thing to suggest for something he must know for certain is not a worthwhile scum pairing to spend time on. If he's town, he knows for certain that it's a waste of time because he's town, so Swan-Space is impossible. If he's scum, he knows for certain I'm town anyway, but obviously there's at least some scum motivation for wanting to waste town's time by getting someone to spend time re-reading and commenting on the me-Swan interaction. At the time, I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of alignment, so I just suggest that he might be trying too hard to broadcast towniness without actually thinking about how best to use our limited resources.

Anyway, I now think he's my top scum pick, so it's easier to go back and ask who in their right town mind would suggest that other busy townies spend time considering a particular scum pairing that contains themself as a known town and another player whose alignment they don't possibly have any way of knowing about.
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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 4)
« Reply #1098 on: December 05, 2017, 01:00:33 pm »

I think IDP was the one who had everything rounding to 5% endings.

I wouldn't intentionally post incorrect math. I got lazy when I was doing the numbers (I was at work and only had a phone to write things down on) and didn't adjust the probabilities properly, as you explained in your post refuting my numbers.

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Re: M110: led zeppelin mafia (day 3)
« Reply #1099 on: December 05, 2017, 04:26:25 pm »

It's not an appeal to emotion, it's just a statement of fact that it's lazy to try to cast me as scum when I've been just too busy to post a lot.

Who was doing that?

Sorry.. hadn't meant to leave this unanswered. I think the main way in which I've not played a strongly-townie enough game is that I've been too busy with work and life on the side. I couldn't do anything about the fact that most of the deadlines have been in the middle of the night for me, but the one I missed voting for entirely was at a point when I just wasn't engaged enough with the game because I had other stuff going on.
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