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WanderingWinder

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The When of the Matter
« on: February 15, 2012, 11:29:28 am »
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We often make lists of cards that are good and cards that are bad. And we look at openings, which openings are the best. But I think we don't often pay enough attention to WHEN cards are good and bad. Almost every card is better at some point in the game than at some other, form estates, which everybody knows get much much better over time (i.e. you want to trash them at the beginning and buy them at the end) to trading post, which is great on turn 1 and much worse later. And everything in between. There are hints of this analysis out there, but it's not well-developed.

Every card has this strength to some extent. Some aren't very interesting (silver, province, etc.). Some are incredibly important.

An example for you - the paradox of trashers
The most obvious application of this is to trashers. Chapel is by far the best it's going to be before the first reshuffle (I'll call this the zeroth reshuffle). To the extent that it's super-powered then, maybe average on the first reshuffle, and bad afterwards. The same goes for cards like trading post, steward, ambassador, remake, and even forge. The reason for this is that the purpose of these cards is to remove unwanted cards from your deck (well, not entirely, but most often), and in order to do that, you have to be able to get them in your hand together with those unwanted cards, which is by far easier early in the game, when a large percentage of the cards you draw these with will be unwanted.
Now, there's a whole bunch of trashers that I've left out, you might be thinking, and these are your trash-for-benefit cards. Why have I left them out? Because they function quite differently than the others. You use these cards to convert what are generally longer-term investments into immediate gains. What makes them different? The biggest thing is that they only trash one card at a time, which isn't really effective at trashing your deck into a compact engine. The other big thing is that they give you benefits in proportion to the cost of the trashed card. It's for this reason, along with the fact that when you trash those expensive cards, you want to do it at a time when you won't miss their presence as much, i.e. close to the last reshuffle, that trash-for-benefit cards achieve their highest power in the late game.

Time for a big list
Engine components are obviously most powerful later in the game, when you have sufficient density of them to be able to reliably chain them together in an engine.
Terminal draw tends to be stronger late in the game as well; not only are you drawing better things, but (assuming you've planned your deck well), your risk of collisions tend to be decreased then as well. And, these cards get 'caught in the reshuffle' much less later on, too.
Copper is best at the very beginning of the game and at the very end, when your money density is dreadful.

Gardens and Philosopher's stone obviously get stronger with time, as your deck gets bigger.

Venture gets stronger later too, as the average value of your treasure grows.

Silk Road, Fairgrounds, and Vineyards get better over time, as you get more and more likely to bump up to the next of their conditions (silk road especially, since it compounds on itself).

Sifters (e.g. warehouse) are best early, worst in the mid-late game, and decent again when you're greening late. The particular reason for their goodness early on is that not only do they skip your relatively high ratio of estates, they also help you get to your key one or two strong cards.

Duration cards should get a special note here, as they get significantly longer the later you are in the game, because they are much less likely to get 'caught in the reshuffle'


Then there are all kinds of 'interaction' cards.
Attacks
Cursing attacks have essentially two components. Curses are bad because they give you negative VP. This is unchanged throughout the game. Curses are also bad because they clog up your deck. The earlier you get the curse, the thinner your deck probably is, and the more times you're going to see it throughout the rest of the game. Combined with the compounding effect of earlier buys being more important than late ones, and cursing attacks are definitely early game cards.

Handsize-reduction attacks get to their strongest point just before greening happens. This is when you really need all of your cards, and you probably don't have all that much you'd be ok with discarding at that point.

Bureaucrat's attack is strongest when there's significant green in the deck, which is at the end but more especially the beginning of the game. And getting flooded with silver is generally better early than late, so it's pretty much an early game card.

Cutpurse is a huge early-game card; not only are you more likely to hit a copper earlier in the game, it's also much more likely to make a meaningful difference then, too.

Jester consistently gets stronger the later you go in the game, as there's better stuff to steal.

Inspection (i.e. spy-like) attacks remain fairly consistent throughout the game. Early on, you're more likely to be able to pin them to a dead card on top of the deck. But later, it's more painful.

Non-attack interaction
Possession is obviously strongest late in the game, when you can steal better stuff. On the other hand, you want to possess people as often as possible, and if you possess someone in the middle of the game, you do get the compounding effect of 'early buys are better than later'. So possession is actually fairly neutral time-wise - it's much more dependent on other factors, like what's in your opponent's deck, than time.

Masquerade is strong early in the game, because of the trashing effect. In certain circumstances, particularly if you can chain it with handsize-reduction attacks, or if your opponent has trashed even more than you, the passing effect can be like an attack, which gets more powerful with time.

theory

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2012, 11:48:46 am »
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The inspection attacks vary a bit: Rabble for instance is downright bad early game but brutal late game.

Jester is a weird case, because early on it is likely to hit junk and dish out junk, in the middle hit good stuff and give you good stuff, and late hit VP and dish out junk again.  When it hits a good card at the end, you're annoyed because you don't get a chance to draw the good card you just gained, but you also just milled a critical card for him too.  So I'm not really sure how Jester evolves over the course of a game.
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GendoIkari

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2012, 11:51:00 am »
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Where you mention that sifters (Warehouse) are better early on; I would add another reason to that as well: They help you shuffle much sooner, so your turn 1/2/3/4 buys are played sooner.
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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2012, 11:56:44 am »
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Quote
Handsize-reduction attacks get to their strongest point just before greening happens. This is when you really need all of your cards, and you probably don't have all that much you'd be ok with discarding at that point.

I would have thought they would be worse early on when being reduced cards means you have less chance to improve as well and kills the tempo of your deck, whereas later on, your deck has better chance to recover.

Obviously getting hit with a militia when you have 2 estates isnt that bad, but not getting the chance to buy a $5 card because of it on the third turn can be huge.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2012, 12:06:41 pm »
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The inspection attacks vary a bit: Rabble for instance is downright bad early game but brutal late game.

Jester is a weird case, because early on it is likely to hit junk and dish out junk, in the middle hit good stuff and give you good stuff, and late hit VP and dish out junk again.  When it hits a good card at the end, you're annoyed because you don't get a chance to draw the good card you just gained, but you also just milled a critical card for him too.  So I'm not really sure how Jester evolves over the course of a game.
I wasn't considering Rabble an inspection attack. My thoughts on it are going to be similar to the bureaucrat case, except the particular nature of the card makes it much more stackable later.
Jester IS a weird case. It's just that I find it's real power is with getting opponent's strong cards (especially because it means that that strong card has missed the reshuffle for them). And giving out a copper isn't much of an attack at all, and early on, the cycling is big. But that's just my impression of Jester.

WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2012, 12:09:24 pm »
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Where you mention that sifters (Warehouse) are better early on; I would add another reason to that as well: They help you shuffle much sooner, so your turn 1/2/3/4 buys are played sooner.
True. I should probably mention cycling more explicitly somewhere.

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2012, 12:13:57 pm »
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Quote
Handsize-reduction attacks get to their strongest point just before greening happens. This is when you really need all of your cards, and you probably don't have all that much you'd be ok with discarding at that point.

I would have thought they would be worse early on when being reduced cards means you have less chance to improve as well and kills the tempo of your deck, whereas later on, your deck has better chance to recover.

Obviously getting hit with a militia when you have 2 estates isnt that bad, but not getting the chance to buy a $5 card because of it on the third turn can be huge.

Well, yes and no. In general, your early turns are more important than the later ones because of a chaining effect. And I'm not saying that getting hit early doesn't hurt. Just getting hit late is a bigger deal.

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2012, 12:31:17 pm »
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Jester always makes me think of that other savagely swingy Attack, Swindler. What would you say about Swindler?

My guess would be Swindler is the opposite of Jester: it gets much worse as time goes on. Early on, you are likely to hit your opponent's Coppers (turning them into Curses), his useful stuff at the $3 and $4 level (turning them into less useful stuff), or his power $5 actions (turning them into Duchies). The only truly bad situation is hitting Estate.

Later on, you don't want to turn anything into Duchies, and though you can turn Duchies into non-VP cards, hitting Provinces and Gold is more likely and usually not useful. Hitting Province can be useful in some situations, but that's hard to plan for and most of the time not so good.
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chwhite

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2012, 12:40:26 pm »
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An example for you - the paradox of trashers
The most obvious application of this is to trashers. Chapel is by far the best it's going to be before the first reshuffle (I'll call this the zeroth reshuffle). To the extent that it's super-powered then, maybe average on the first reshuffle, and bad afterwards. The same goes for cards like trading post, steward, ambassador, remake, and even forge. The reason for this is that the purpose of these cards is to remove unwanted cards from your deck (well, not entirely, but most often), and in order to do that, you have to be able to get them in your hand together with those unwanted cards, which is by far easier early in the game, when a large percentage of the cards you draw these with will be unwanted.
Now, there's a whole bunch of trashers that I've left out, you might be thinking, and these are your trash-for-benefit cards. Why have I left them out? Because they function quite differently than the others. You use these cards to convert what are generally longer-term investments into immediate gains. What makes them different? The biggest thing is that they only trash one card at a time, which isn't really effective at trashing your deck into a compact engine. The other big thing is that they give you benefits in proportion to the cost of the trashed card. It's for this reason, along with the fact that when you trash those expensive cards, you want to do it at a time when you won't miss their presence as much, i.e. close to the last reshuffle, that trash-for-benefit cards achieve their highest power in the late game.

Upgrade probably belongs in the chapel/trading post/steward/remake group as a better early trasher.  Obviously, Upgrade and Remake can have more utility in the late game than chapel/steward/TP, if you're turning earlygame $4s into Duchies, or $7s into Provinces, or even other Upgrades into Gold; but on balance they're most commonly used to clear Coppers and turn Estates into Silvers (or equivalent).  So, earlygame. 

Trade Route is a weird one, since the "trash one card" bit is best early on, but the potential cash is best late.  I think it's the most interesting trasher in terms of the "when of the matter". 

Really, I'm not sure at all that it's right to say trash-for-benefit cards are best in the late game.  I mean, Mine and Moneylender are technically trash-for-benefit but you *really* want them early if at all.  Salvager can sometimes be a decent opening, albeit a risky one because Salvager/C/C/C/C is pretty bad, much like Baron.  Bishop is another one you often want to get early if you're going that route; since there's a flat benefit-no-matter-what and the points only go up by half the cost, trashing Coppers isn't that bad of a deal.  Apprentice is IMO the best example of a trasher which is weak early and strong late; I guess Salvager does fit that description as well despite its utility with Estates, but really just those two.
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DG

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2012, 12:41:35 pm »
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I suspect that although the article is correct in what it says, the attack section isn't so helpful since the kingdom itself will be more important in judging attack the strength of attacks. If I can see my opponent buying warehouses and hamlets then a militia is likely to be good in every stage of the game.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2012, 12:47:13 pm »
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An example for you - the paradox of trashers
The most obvious application of this is to trashers. Chapel is by far the best it's going to be before the first reshuffle (I'll call this the zeroth reshuffle). To the extent that it's super-powered then, maybe average on the first reshuffle, and bad afterwards. The same goes for cards like trading post, steward, ambassador, remake, and even forge. The reason for this is that the purpose of these cards is to remove unwanted cards from your deck (well, not entirely, but most often), and in order to do that, you have to be able to get them in your hand together with those unwanted cards, which is by far easier early in the game, when a large percentage of the cards you draw these with will be unwanted.
Now, there's a whole bunch of trashers that I've left out, you might be thinking, and these are your trash-for-benefit cards. Why have I left them out? Because they function quite differently than the others. You use these cards to convert what are generally longer-term investments into immediate gains. What makes them different? The biggest thing is that they only trash one card at a time, which isn't really effective at trashing your deck into a compact engine. The other big thing is that they give you benefits in proportion to the cost of the trashed card. It's for this reason, along with the fact that when you trash those expensive cards, you want to do it at a time when you won't miss their presence as much, i.e. close to the last reshuffle, that trash-for-benefit cards achieve their highest power in the late game.

Upgrade probably belongs in the chapel/trading post/steward/remake group as a better early trasher.  Obviously, Upgrade and Remake can have more utility in the late game than chapel/steward/TP, if you're turning earlygame $4s into Duchies, or $7s into Provinces, or even other Upgrades into Gold; but on balance they're most commonly used to clear Coppers and turn Estates into Silvers (or equivalent).  So, earlygame. 

Trade Route is a weird one, since the "trash one card" bit is best early on, but the potential cash is best late.  I think it's the most interesting trasher in terms of the "when of the matter". 

Really, I'm not sure at all that it's right to say trash-for-benefit cards are best in the late game.  I mean, Mine and Moneylender are technically trash-for-benefit but you *really* want them early if at all.  Salvager can sometimes be a decent opening, albeit a risky one because Salvager/C/C/C/C is pretty bad, much like Baron.  Bishop is another one you often want to get early if you're going that route; since there's a flat benefit-no-matter-what and the points only go up by half the cost, trashing Coppers isn't that bad of a deal.  Apprentice is IMO the best example of a trasher which is weak early and strong late; I guess Salvager does fit that description as well despite its utility with Estates, but really just those two.
Can't really disagree too much. Apprentice is the poster-child here. I guess, it's the trash-for benefit that give you something based on cost that gets better more than actual TFB. I do think bishop is a big deal here too, because the trashing your opponent gets is much less significant later. But you're right about static benefits. Salvager must be better late than early, I think - but that doesn't necessarily mean it's bad early. Salvager-cccc is disgusting though, so you have to weigh that, very very much like baron.
Remake is clearly an early-game card. Upgrade... it's hard to say. If you're using it to trash coppers/estates, you're probably not all that thrilled with it as a $5. You sorta need that utility benefit eventually for it to be good, though often yes, you do use it a long time trashing coppers/estates first.
Trade route is something I think is very clearly better later. Using it to trash one card at a time is really dreadful early. Like, oh-so bad.

WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2012, 12:50:39 pm »
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I suspect that although the article is correct in what it says, the attack section isn't so helpful since the kingdom itself will be more important in judging attack the strength of attacks. If I can see my opponent buying warehouses and hamlets then a militia is likely to be good in every stage of the game.
Sure. My point is that the card strengths are shifting throughout the game, that they aren't fixed. They also aren't fixed in relation to the rest of the board. Of course, there is some raw value too. No matter how much cutpurse is an amazing card early on and loses power, it's not going to overcome the raw power of JoaT, etc. etc.

HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2012, 02:37:22 pm »
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I'm pretty sure Jester is stronger early. If you hit a powerful card early, you get to play it a lot, and you skip a critical early play for your opponent. Later on, even though there is "better stuff to steal" in an absolute sense, it's not really any better relative to the stuff that's already in your deck.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2012, 02:50:43 pm »
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I'm pretty sure Jester is stronger early. If you hit a powerful card early, you get to play it a lot, and you skip a critical early play for your opponent. Later on, even though there is "better stuff to steal" in an absolute sense, it's not really any better relative to the stuff that's already in your deck.
But you're much less likely to hit that important card early.

HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2012, 02:55:46 pm »
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^You're not any more likely to hit an important card late, either. Since you have more good cards, each card is less important than the same card would have been early. Almost by definition, important card are rare.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2012, 03:02:25 pm »
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^You're not any more likely to hit an important card late, either. Since you have more good cards, each card is less important than the same card would have been early. Almost by definition, important card are rare.
Huh? Just because you have 4 doesn't mean gold isn't important....

HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2012, 03:18:59 pm »
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^It does. Each gold is less important. Adding/skipping one more gold when you have 4 is not really that big of a deal.

A little evidence in support of Jester being weaker later:
http://councilroom.com/win_weighted_accum_turn.html?cards=Jester
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 03:22:23 pm by HiveMindEmulator »
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Asklepios

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2012, 03:28:36 pm »
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I have to agree here: Jester is definitely stronger in the early game.

Early on, the curses and coppers it gives are more significant in slowing down the opposition. Later on, if you pull a Province off the top of your opponent's deck, you might give them a curse, but at cost of giving them a hand that is more likely to get the next province.

Early on, a copied gold or fishing village is an amazing prize. Later on, its nice, but not critical.

As for Possession: saying its better in the late game is a moot point. The presence of Possession in a deck means you've hit the late game. If you're playing for Possessions, you buy them as soon as you can, regardless of how far into the game you are. Indeed, you're more likely to turn down a Possession in the later game, as if you already have one you might be better off with Duchies. So essentially, Possession is a better buy in the late game than the endgame, and it doesn't exist in the early game.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 03:31:48 pm by Asklepios »
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2012, 03:45:16 pm »
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If you want to make that argument, like every single card is better earlier, because early game is more important than late game. I'm talking about relative power here.

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2012, 04:34:10 pm »
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^Not true. Victory cards are better late. Cities are better late. Menageries are better late. Most things that draw cards are still better late. I have no problem buying labs at turn 12-15, but I would never buy a Jester that late. Based on that, I think it's fair to say Jester is an early game card. You buy one in the first few turns if it's going to be one of those games where you race to mass up action cards, and that's it.

Maybe this clarifies the earlier win rate graph I linked:
http://councilroom.com/win_weighted_accum_turn.html?cards=Jester%2C%20witch%2C%20laboratory
Note that the shape is much more similar to Witch than to Laboratory. While Lab doesn't go up, it stays much flatter than Witch or Jester. Lab is a card that is stronger late, while Witch and Jester are stronger early.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 04:44:03 pm by HiveMindEmulator »
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Robz888

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2012, 06:27:24 pm »
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I have to agree here: Jester is definitely stronger in the early game.

Early on, the curses and coppers it gives are more significant in slowing down the opposition. Later on, if you pull a Province off the top of your opponent's deck, you might give them a curse, but at cost of giving them a hand that is more likely to get the next province.

Early on, a copied gold or fishing village is an amazing prize. Later on, its nice, but not critical.

It seems to me Jester is at least more powerful in the mid-game than it is at the beginning. When your deck is at its most ready to go green--when it is full of expensive treasures and great Actions--is when it is most vulnerable to Jester. It might slip a little bit in power when you cruise toward the end, though it's more likely to give out curses then, and in my view, would therefore still be more powerful than at the beginning of the game, when the most likely result is "your opponent gains a Copper."
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #21 on: February 15, 2012, 06:35:42 pm »
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Hitting a copper early is no worse than hitting a card with an exhausted supply, or a terminal, or a silver late. Half the time the Jester is going to do something of a no-op regardless of when you play it. But early on, you have a better chance of handing out curses or getting an engine card at a time when you are building your engine. If you hit smithies early, you can spend more buys on villages to take appropriate advantage of the Jester. If you already have your engine set up, how much good does a smithy really do you?
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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2012, 06:58:18 pm »
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Back to the OP, why is there less collision in the late game for terminal draws? I just don't see it.
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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2012, 07:33:04 pm »
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Back to the OP, why is there less collision in the late game for terminal draws? I just don't see it.

Um, because the Victory cards that you're buying space them out? I'm confused by your question.
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Re: The When of the Matter
« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2012, 09:32:25 pm »
0

Back to the OP, why is there less collision in the late game for terminal draws? I just don't see it.
Because there's more cards overall in your deck....
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