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Author Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER  (Read 22638 times)

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1825 on: October 08, 2017, 05:51:49 pm »

I do think e is town btw. Just based on play. His claim is a bit worrisome I'll admit.
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Mafia play advice: If you are not content with the way the game is going, always assume that it is your fault.

DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1826 on: October 08, 2017, 06:01:11 pm »

And what are thoses cases against people being scum again ? That DatSwan is a poisoner because he bid 4 the last game ?

Now THAT is nonsensical.

Scum decide their bids collectively, so a pattern over the two games is indicative of town if anything.

If you want to be useful: what do you think of Space's pick of Watcher, given where they were in the draft ?

My argument on Swan is based largely on that yes. More it's based on a collective of things:

A) Somebody on scum went 4 or 8. This player is likely now claiming Iguanas spot. That's going to narrow it down to the mid-range claims (most likely).

B) I don't believe Swan would've chosen 23 as their bid if town.

C) Swan has spent a lot of the game speculating about what he wouldn't do as scum. I didn't see that much in 105. Moreover, he's spent little time attempting to find scum - something I think is significantly harder to do in your first scum game.

A) Agreed. Unless there is a multi switch.
B) Why would I not choose 23 as  Town? I did choose 23 as town, first off, and secondly, I still stand by my logic behind it. Not just because it was exactly correct, but because I believe it would be over and over again INDEPENDENT of players in the game as long as the rules were the same. The fact that you know me, combined with the fact that you are holding this over me so much, is actually the primary reason why I switched from saying "it must be a Town!Galz" to reading back on you.
C) Swan spent a lot of time speculating about what he WOULD do as skum because this game setup is confusing as shit (awesome, but confusing for a second game) and I needed to try to map out who was likely skum for when claiming started. Because of that, when you accused me of doing things that did not come up in my "what I would do as skum" set up, it kind of stood out. I did not know that defending yourself was an Anti-Town play in LYLO so my bad on that. In which case I would like to point out the only person that has spent more time defending themselves than me... is you.

I am done trying to talk myself out of this.

Vote: Galz
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1827 on: October 08, 2017, 06:06:49 pm »

DatSwna, you say bidding 23 was "correct": how ? Getting #10 is not terrible, but it's not exactly a success ?
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DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1828 on: October 08, 2017, 06:57:09 pm »

DatSwna, you say bidding 23 was "correct": how ? Getting #10 is not terrible, but it's not exactly a success ?

I am referencing a back and forth Galz and I had the other day when he first accused me of being skum based on what I did the previous game.

I said my theory was go for 23 as town because it seemed to be a somewhat GTD middle of the pack number. I expected to come in ahead of where 23 landed on the previous game (because people on Skum would react to 23 being picked so much and I assumed stay away from it), but also not be very high up. When I say I was "Correct" I am referencing that so far we can determine less people bid 23 than they did on the re roll and I had a slightly high draft position then those in the previous game.

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DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1829 on: October 08, 2017, 07:37:13 pm »

DatSwna, you say bidding 23 was "correct": how ? Getting #10 is not terrible, but it's not exactly a success ?

Also you gotta remember that you all play a lot with one and other and this is my first draft with any of you. So while 10 may not be super awesome fantastic... game plan was to stay out of the BS and go for middle rank area... 10 isn’t perfect but I would have considered “success” anything under 12.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1830 on: October 08, 2017, 07:40:16 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1831 on: October 08, 2017, 07:45:03 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

And of course the very outside chance we lynch the poisoned player, reducing the death count on any given cycle from 3 to 2.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1832 on: October 08, 2017, 07:59:23 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

And of course the very outside chance we lynch the poisoned player, reducing the death count on any given cycle from 3 to 2.

Actually, that "out" is gone in a no lynch situation as well. The only reason it works today is because it effectively creates a No Lynch by reducing today's cycle to 2 deaths.

So today we have a 4-10 chance to make it to tomorrow still playing. If we no-lynch or lynch the poisoned player, we drop to 1-8 to continue past tomorrow. At any point prior to the Poisoner dying a mislynch means we lose.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1833 on: October 08, 2017, 08:09:15 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

Convenient timing to point out the no lunch solution you “overlooked”
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1834 on: October 08, 2017, 08:23:45 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

Convenient timing to point out the no lunch solution you “overlooked”

Why?
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1835 on: October 08, 2017, 09:31:19 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

Convenient timing to point out the no lunch solution you “overlooked”

Why?

Because you hate lunch obviously
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1836 on: October 08, 2017, 09:50:12 pm »

Just noticed a small oversight in my math. We're technically in MyLo, not LyLo - but our outs tomorrow following a no lynch would be 1-in-8, compared to 3-in-10 now.:

Right now there's 10 Alive. I'm going to factor 2 NK's until the Poisoner dies.

Mislynch: We drop to 7. Even a correct Poisoner Lynch then leaves us at 4 with 2 scum. We lose.

No Lynch: We drop to 8. Mislynch here and we lose. Same situation we're currently in. But have we lost? If we correctly lynch regular scum here, we'll drop to 5 with 2 scum. Still playing. If we lynch scum (either) again, we drop to 2 with 1 Scum. We lose. So in this scenario we could still win if (and only if) we lynch the Poisoner tomorrow.

Convenient timing to point out the no lunch solution you “overlooked”

Why?

Because you hate lunch obviously

You like no lunch? Obvscum.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1837 on: October 09, 2017, 12:25:16 am »

Unvote
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1838 on: October 09, 2017, 12:41:02 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.

Galzria? Pushing Datswan over Space. Galzria!Space very possible.

e? Says not to policy lynch, which could . e!Space is very possible.

Faust? Entirely useless and unpleasant! But also said nothing about Space and spent most of his time poking Teproc, Galzria and RR. Faust!Space is very possible.

RR? Left Space off his lynch list. Hasn't posted extensively about anyone, so this is about as meaningful as we can get for "RR ignoring someone". RR!Space is very possible.

Eevee? Forces the claim out of Space! An interaction! It proves that either Eevee is scum, or Space isn't the one who fired the main shot last night. Fair enough. Eevee!Space is quite possible though, the claims could just as easily be set up.

Datswan: Has voted Galzria, which is understandable by either alignment. Says "he honestly does not see the Space case here". Also lists Space as a hypothetical scumteam with Galz... overall Datswan!Space is quite possible.

Qvist: Probably town himself. No particularly notable mention of space.


Downsides to lynching space:
Eevee is vouching that she did not perform the NK last night
Galzria being alive tomorrow would be Eevee vouching that Space did not perform the Poison last night.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1839 on: October 09, 2017, 12:43:16 am »

"which could be a passive deflection" ---> line about e
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1840 on: October 09, 2017, 01:08:39 am »

I support this lynch.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1841 on: October 09, 2017, 01:10:02 am »

vote: space
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1842 on: October 09, 2017, 01:27:11 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.
A major downside would be that scum!Space is quite unlikely to be the Poisoner. But otherwise, it's not the worst lynch ever.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1843 on: October 09, 2017, 01:33:03 am »

iguana reread...

Hm.

Vote: RR

First vote.

Eevee seems pretty town.
I'm going VLA for the next few days. Don't want to be on RR anymore so why not sheep him?

Vote: Datswan for spelling scum with a k.
This before going VLA is significant in particular. Putting the vote on the Poisoner would be risky.

Well uh. Then, there is just nothing D2, only voting for LaLight and such. Only significant things are that Eevee is a bit scummier and DatSwan is a bit townier.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1844 on: October 09, 2017, 01:46:12 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.
A major downside would be that scum!Space is quite unlikely to be the Poisoner. But otherwise, it's not the worst lynch ever.

Why not exactly..?

Scum!Space is more likely the poisoner with Galz poisoned than she is the strongman who shot.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1845 on: October 09, 2017, 02:10:07 am »

Now I want to recheck all night actions.

Night 1:

X Poisons Jimmmmm
Y Kills Witherweaver
Space watches faust - no targeter
LaLight targets ??? and ??? (claimed Jailkeeping gkrieg)
e does nothing
Qvist does nothing
Eevee tracks e -  no target
gkrieg does ???

If two or more kills land on the same person, would this be indicated in flavor?

So first of all, here we have a missing SK kill. None of the claimed roles can account for that. Conclusion: Scum has a Roleblocker. It makes sense for them to use it on a claimed Jailkeeper. Roleblocker is something that a middlish slot probably went for. Claimed VTs in that range: RR, DatSwan.

Another note is that e can only be the Poisoner if Eevee is scum as well.

Night 2

X poisons chairs
Z kills ??? (presumably: a Candidate)
Space watches Galzria - no targeter
e does nothing (?)
Qvist uses Protector of the Island
Eevee tracks Qvist - targets are candidates
gkrieg redirects Galzria and someone (only indication for this is Space's result)

gkrieg redirecting away from Galzria makes sense. Question: Who did scum actually try to kill here?
e - I guess possible. e has a super high ratio of being nightkilled. But he hasn't been very active at that point.
DatSwan - very offbeat. Makes most sense if scum are afraid of watching, i.e. if Space is town.
Galzria - that would have been redirected, and to one of the Candidates too, and it would imply that one of Space/Eevee/Qvist is scum.
Eevee - possible.
Teproc- possible.
That doesn't tell much right now, but might be useful later on.

Another thing I don't understand is why do we not force e to full claim? Knowing what he did helps us figure things out, and I don't see how town benefits from keeping this in the dark - if e still has his power he can use it to try and block a kill and there's not much scum can do about it even if they know.

Finally, according to this Eevee knows that PotI has already been used N2. His D3 response doesn't reflect that:
It really does seem like Iguana wants to be lynched. Could there be other reasons than the protector of the island? I can't think of any.

Night 3

X poisons ???
A kills gkrieg
Space watches Galzria - no targeter
e does nothing (?)
Eevee tracks Space - target Galzria
gkrieg does ???

What this says... Galzria is unlikely to be Poisoned? It would require Space to lie about the Watcher, which seems kind of dangerous with Eevee's result. On the other hand, if Space IS the Poisoner and Eevee has a result, they would be forced into such a claim. That would make some other scumster the Watcher. Possible.

PPE: 1
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1846 on: October 09, 2017, 02:11:19 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.
A major downside would be that scum!Space is quite unlikely to be the Poisoner. But otherwise, it's not the worst lynch ever.

Why not exactly..?

Scum!Space is more likely the poisoner with Galz poisoned than she is the strongman who shot.
Strongman? I'm not sure I follow you here.

I do agree that upon further evaluation, Space could still be the Poisoner.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

O

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1847 on: October 09, 2017, 02:16:50 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.
A major downside would be that scum!Space is quite unlikely to be the Poisoner. But otherwise, it's not the worst lynch ever.

Why not exactly..?

Scum!Space is more likely the poisoner with Galz poisoned than she is the strongman who shot.
Strongman? I'm not sure I follow you here.

I do agree that upon further evaluation, Space could still be the Poisoner.

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DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1848 on: October 09, 2017, 02:19:48 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.

Galzria? Pushing Datswan over Space. Galzria!Space very possible.

e? Says not to policy lynch, which could . e!Space is very possible.

Faust? Entirely useless and unpleasant! But also said nothing about Space and spent most of his time poking Teproc, Galzria and RR. Faust!Space is very possible.

RR? Left Space off his lynch list. Hasn't posted extensively about anyone, so this is about as meaningful as we can get for "RR ignoring someone". RR!Space is very possible.

Eevee? Forces the claim out of Space! An interaction! It proves that either Eevee is scum, or Space isn't the one who fired the main shot last night. Fair enough. Eevee!Space is quite possible though, the claims could just as easily be set up.

Datswan: Has voted Galzria, which is understandable by either alignment. Says "he honestly does not see the Space case here". Also lists Space as a hypothetical scumteam with Galz... overall Datswan!Space is quite possible.

Qvist: Probably town himself. No particularly notable mention of space.


Downsides to lynching space:
Eevee is vouching that she did not perform the NK last night
Galzria being alive tomorrow would be Eevee vouching that Space did not perform the Poison last night.

A small thing but just so no one gets my lynch Pool wrong. Where ever the comment was reading “I don’t see the Space case” was well before the More recent post suggesting Space!Galz instead of whatever the ninja kill nonsense was.

I absolutely believe the lynch Pool includes either the tracker/watcher (leaning Space actually) and some combo of E!, Galz, and Faust. Probably Faust and Galz/E! To be more specific. From there I think Galz is more likely and I would like to lynch there.

My vote is probably not moving from Galz at this point unless I am keeping us from lynchig someone is a clear potential poisoner.  I will NOT vote for Qivst, O, Teproc, Eevee, or Space at this point. There is like 99% one skum there and they are probably not the poisoner so I don’t see the point in the risk.

The simplest selection for poisoner is me or Galz. Plain and simple. I don’t think we should waste time considering other candidates at this point. Pick one of us. Either we will win or I will flip VT. Then RB Galz if you can, town lives to fight another day. Lynch him then, and the pool consists of Faust and either the Tracker orneatcher. Game set match.


PPE 5 - still read them. They don’t change my opinion.
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DatSwan

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1849 on: October 09, 2017, 03:41:02 am »

I think I want to lynch Space.

1) Space has given actually pretty useless and behind-on-info infodumps compared to M100, a town!Space game
2) Space has given no reads whatsoever and not contributed beyond said infodumps.
3) Most of the other possible scum candidates have directed me away from Space.
A major downside would be that scum!Space is quite unlikely to be the Poisoner. But otherwise, it's not the worst lynch ever.

Why not exactly..?

Scum!Space is more likely the poisoner with Galz poisoned than she is the strongman who shot.
Strongman? I'm not sure I follow you here.

I do agree that upon further evaluation, Space could still be the Poisoner.

So, I am completely sold on the TeamMason bit right now so there is no sarcasm here... but a further explanation of the Strongman idea when you get a chance please.
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