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Author Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER  (Read 237635 times)

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1850 on: October 09, 2017, 04:24:30 am »

Smart human. Such good question asking. If a player was essentially killed two different ways, this would be indicated in flavor, ie... “Player X died in the night. He succumbed to poison and was found shot in the head.”
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1851 on: October 09, 2017, 04:24:50 am »

Now I want to recheck all night actions.

Night 1:

X Poisons Jimmmmm
Y Kills Witherweaver
Space watches faust - no targeter
LaLight targets ??? and ??? (claimed Jailkeeping gkrieg)
e does nothing
Qvist does nothing
Eevee tracks e -  no target
gkrieg does ???

If two or more kills land on the same person, would this be indicated in flavor?

So first of all, here we have a missing SK kill. None of the claimed roles can account for that. Conclusion: Scum has a Roleblocker. It makes sense for them to use it on a claimed Jailkeeper. Roleblocker is something that a middlish slot probably went for. Claimed VTs in that range: RR, DatSwan.

Another note is that e can only be the Poisoner if Eevee is scum as well.

Night 2

X poisons chairs
Z kills ??? (presumably: a Candidate)
Space watches Galzria - no targeter
e does nothing (?)
Qvist uses Protector of the Island
Eevee tracks Qvist - targets are candidates
gkrieg redirects Galzria and someone (only indication for this is Space's result)

gkrieg redirecting away from Galzria makes sense. Question: Who did scum actually try to kill here?
e - I guess possible. e has a super high ratio of being nightkilled. But he hasn't been very active at that point.
DatSwan - very offbeat. Makes most sense if scum are afraid of watching, i.e. if Space is town.
Galzria - that would have been redirected, and to one of the Candidates too, and it would imply that one of Space/Eevee/Qvist is scum.
Eevee - possible.
Teproc- possible.
That doesn't tell much right now, but might be useful later on.

Another thing I don't understand is why do we not force e to full claim? Knowing what he did helps us figure things out, and I don't see how town benefits from keeping this in the dark - if e still has his power he can use it to try and block a kill and there's not much scum can do about it even if they know.

Finally, according to this Eevee knows that PotI has already been used N2. His D3 response doesn't reflect that:
It really does seem like Iguana wants to be lynched. Could there be other reasons than the protector of the island? I can't think of any.

Night 3

X poisons ???
A kills gkrieg
Space watches Galzria - no targeter
e does nothing (?)
Eevee tracks Space - target Galzria
gkrieg does ???

What this says... Galzria is unlikely to be Poisoned? It would require Space to lie about the Watcher, which seems kind of dangerous with Eevee's result. On the other hand, if Space IS the Poisoner and Eevee has a result, they would be forced into such a claim. That would make some other scumster the Watcher. Possible.

PPE: 1

I am quoting this for reference to a previous point I made a few days back that I believe was incorrectly overlooked.
#1) Best Scenario = Find POS and lynch them.
#2) Middle Scenario = Find Skum and lynch them.
#3) Bottom Scenario = Get the lynch wrong, but lynch the poisoned player.
#4) Losing Scenario = Lynch a non-poisoned Town player.

Obviously, we would love to have situation 1 happen and situation 4 is a loss.
I also accept that I will have very little persuasion on anyone at this point as I seem to be in all the "lynch pools". So please just take the concept FWIW:

If we lynch Skum every night from here on out - we win. (7-3 tonight, we lynch skum, one of us dies to poison, they kill one of us. We wake up tomorrow to 5-2. We lynch skum. One of us dies to poison, they kill one of us. We wake up 3-1. At this point, if we e fuck up they win. But... isn't that the same result as it has been advertised today. No difference right? Except you know, we are even today, the two potential days full of information, and whatever the bazillion other upsides for us are.)

Going to bed. Tomorrow I will go and look back to see who has been trying to play the quick lynch game.

The only other thing I want to leave with is regarding the Space!Skum thing. I think that either Space or Eevee essentially must be skum at this point. And I, like most here, are leaning Space. But the only current threat to Town currently is the Poisoner and then one of these two roles (or both I guess and we are fucked). Point is - skum will kill the other one tonight to ensure they cannot reveal info.

I get that Space seems easy, and I will be honest I am on the "I could go with a Skum!Space" wagon... but every lynch kinda counts a lot at this point. If we lynch him, then yeah, he may be skum, and yay for us. But if we pick another good target and are right, skum is going to have to kill the non - skum info role for safety tonight. I know that they could both be, or one could be lying, or we could get it wrong (all good reasons to lynch from the pool - myself included).. but like.. optimal win would seem to be to narrow down tomorrow's pool as much as possible. Maybe we should spend some time before last minute considering candidates other than Space/Eevee because that choice will be made for us tomorrow? - Think of it like Iguana Day 3. sort of. but not really. but you get it.

See you tomorrow. Or tonight. Or whatever time it is where you are... cuz it's late as hell here.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1852 on: October 09, 2017, 04:29:16 am »


So, I am completely sold on the TeamMason bit right now so there is no sarcasm here... but a further explanation of the Strongman idea when you get a chance please.

goon*

misspoke. In my head they mean similar things and I didn't really use those terms back then..
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1853 on: October 09, 2017, 05:06:18 am »

No lynch is bad when scum gets two kills a night.

Do I win the mylo/lylo analysis game ?

faust, you contend that there must be a scum roleblocker. I get that there's a missing NK from LL, but

oh and... I am not trolling you. I am town, played townie and did nothing that hurt town.

This lead me to think LL might have no killed. He has no incentive to lie at that point (post-hammer)... granted, he has no incentive to tell the truth either.

It sounds absurd to no kill as SK, but
a) It lets him support his JK claim (I think he did JK gkrieg)
b) He had no info on N1 on who the candidates were. I thought at the time this would lead him to kill iguana, but I guess he might have hoped iguana's existence would lead to Candidates dying and would help his cause, and then he decided that shooting randomly was not worth the risk of getting caught by a Tracker/Watcher

Combined with the fact that I don't really see why a scum!Roleblocker doesn't claim Roleblocker (it's kinda of a scummy claim yes, but so is VT), and I don't think there is a Roleblocker here.

I do agree e should full claim actually.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1854 on: October 09, 2017, 05:08:29 am »

And when I say "iguana's existence" I meant "a Poisoner's existence".
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1855 on: October 09, 2017, 09:42:18 am »

Space, while calling scum teams is almost always frowned upon it's definitely something that's been on my mind because somewhere the bids just... have to make sense. I believe what I've proposed for You/Swan/e/iguana does that.

I actually disagree that calling scumteams is a bad idea -- I've used interactions before to look for likely sets of people. It's actually more likely to be accurate than considering each person alone, because they're likely to acting as part of a team. However, the thing here is that you're proposing a team based not on interactions or mutual support or whatever, but on your personal aesthetic for what you think a desirable set of bids for a scumteam would be. The whole point of this sort of bidding game is that the unexpected bids perform better than the sheep-bids, so "this is a good spread of numbers that performed well" is not a strong premise for an entire case.

I'm not against reconsidering my position on Faust. The point that you've made regarding vote history is valid. I was 100% wrong on votes in M100 while you were 100% correct - and (I, as scum) argued you were too perfect to be town.

And you won that game for scum by getting me mislynched with exactly that argument.

Here, Faust is in that situation of being 100% wrong. That said, his sample size is far smaller (3 lynches), and Iguana was lynched primarily by those who logged on - so it's not quite fair to hold that one against him (I'm assuming he didn't post D3, but could be wrong).

Are you really saying that faust, strong player that he is, lives this long while acting this scummily, and is still more likely in your opinion to be town than I am, when your primary case against me is in number bids?

So what's the scum team that reasonably gets them Poisoner?

Am I being invited to join in your name-the-team game now, just so you can go back to telling us that it's frowned upon to call teams? :-P I'll bite anyway. I think faust/Eevee/e/Iguana works convincingly, with e as poisoner, faust as the RB/JOAT, and Eevee as scum!tracker.

faust: 73, got  #9, Barracks, claimed as iguana.
Eevee:  5, got #13, Tracker
e:   4/8?, got  #1, Poisoner, claimed as faust.
iguana  3, got #15, Goon, claimed as e.

Sorry if the formatting is weird.. it's pasted from my text buffer of ideas about the game, and I'm using a monospaced font over there to keep things lined up nicely. I think blanketing 3, 4 and 5, plus having an oddball bid is at least as plausible as your "they must have exactly n Lost numbers" theory, and I'm basing my scum team call on actual behaviour/votes in-game, rather than on the bids first and then fitting behavioural evidence retrospectively.

I'm also not saying that I don't believe any other suggestions about DatSwan being a good possibility, but given that your argument against him also incorrectly tars me at the same time, I remain sceptical.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1856 on: October 09, 2017, 09:44:37 am »

Who reasonably gets draft #1?

faust

Or any other scum! You're forgetting that the scum team gets to coordinate on their bids. I did a pretty good job picking my very own number in the first version even though I had the scum QT to talk to, but reasonably any scum team with faust on it gets to have him pick out numbers for everyone if they want to do it that way. No need for him to have the super-exposed high bid personally. That's why I think him bidding an oddball is totally reasonable.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1857 on: October 09, 2017, 09:47:18 am »

Space, the missing NK -could- also be explained by Gkrieg targeting me. He could've redirected an attempted kill to a dead player.

Does that mean that the attempted kill had to be from Qvist, or performed by a ninja, though? Otherwise I think I'd have seen a third player targeting you.

So... just saying.
GK re directs actions from Galz onto himself.
Qivst shields the Candidates giving Galz a shield.
The shield gets transferred from Galz to GK.
There was no NK so the assumption is that a kill was attempted on either GK or Galz - either way ending up on GK.

If we think the options are either NK went somewhere else, or it was Qivst, or it was a ninja I just want to throw out another option...
Team is Galz, Space , XXXX... Galz shot at GK, Space watched Galz.

Just the obvious thought that came to mind. I need to look back to consider if I actually think it is likely but yeah.

This makes very little sense. Why would a player like gkrieg, who gets killed early almost every game, want to direct possible night actions onto himself? If he had a scumread on Galz (he had voted that way, I think), he ought to be directing from himself to Galz, and not the other way around.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1858 on: October 09, 2017, 09:55:14 am »

Here, Faust is in that situation of being 100% wrong. That said, his sample size is far smaller (3 lynches), and Iguana was lynched primarily by those who logged on - so it's not quite fair to hold that one against him (I'm assuming he didn't post D3, but could be wrong).
I did post D3. But I did not want a quicklynch. Apparently now that makes me scummy. The worlds is upside down.

Teproc made a good case for quicklynching, based on the likelihood scum having PotI. It seemed credible enough to go along with at the time, especially since iguana's trolling left little doubt about how he was going to flip. In what way was it towny of you deliberately not to have joined that wagon?
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1859 on: October 09, 2017, 09:59:27 am »

Here, Faust is in that situation of being 100% wrong. That said, his sample size is far smaller (3 lynches), and Iguana was lynched primarily by those who logged on - so it's not quite fair to hold that one against him (I'm assuming he didn't post D3, but could be wrong).
I did post D3. But I did not want a quicklynch. Apparently now that makes me scummy. The worlds is upside down.

Teproc made a good case for quicklynching, based on the likelihood scum having PotI. It seemed credible enough to go along with at the time, especially since iguana's trolling left little doubt about how he was going to flip. In what way was it towny of you deliberately not to have joined that wagon?
The case was not good, it was awful. It was based to the two highly shaky assumptions that a) scum went for PotI b) we could manage to get a majority of living players to vote before a single scum player that would know he had to be online ASAP showed up c) iguana would taunt a quicklynch while his partner has yet to submit an order.

Anyone who tought about it should have been able to figure out that the way to go was either to just lynch iguana at regular speed and assume scum doesn't have PotI because why would they, or to be afraid of scum!PotI and in that case not lynch iguana at all on that day.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1860 on: October 09, 2017, 10:08:01 am »

There is the specific case of Space though. Space, why Watcher over Gunsmith ?

Ah, my selection should not be read as a comment on the absolute value of each role independent of the play of the person wielding it. I just know my own limitations pretty well, and prefer to play in my comfort zone. I do badly on gut reads, and Gunsmith is primarily useful when you have a definite suspicion. I'm okay at looking for people who might be a likely target of other PRs' actions, because there's metainfo from game to game that I don't have to reset, like gkrieg or faust being more likely than the average player to be an N1 target. I think my utility to town is better with Watcher than Gunsmith/Tracker or some other less passive information-gathering role.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1861 on: October 09, 2017, 10:17:22 am »

What do people think of Galz's reaction to my vote on him (and O's).

I thought he was townie D2 -- even enough to make him my watcher target for that night. Then D3 I townread him because of all the action around him the night before, but that day was all about Iguana anyway. Coming into D4 with zero new watcher results on him was odd, and definitely no longer as townie-looking. I don't know that I've actually come round to scumreading him beyond the inevitable omgus feelings resulting in his bad numerology case on me, but that might be residual bias.

Re-reading his actual reaction posts now, it could be scum under pressure. He showed actual anger/frustration, but I get the impression he's a wily enough scum player to be able to channel that either way around.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1862 on: October 09, 2017, 10:33:08 am »

Smart human. Such good question asking. If a player was essentially killed two different ways, this would be indicated in flavor, ie... “Player X died in the night. He succumbed to poison and was found shot in the head.”

Okay, this is good! We wake up tomorrow and prove I'm not the poisoner, because I can 100% guarantee that Galz won't die of poison, and even if he's NKd tonight, the rest of you will be able to see he wasn't also poisoned.

This means it's ridiculous to push for my lynch today, because there are actual scums out there and the only people wanting to risk a non-scum player over an obvious scummy one like faust are the ones who're pushing for me because I'm kind of a traditional mislynch. Even if faust isn't the poisoner, we still win if we take out a scum today and the poisoner tomorrow, once we've had one more night of info-gathering.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1863 on: October 09, 2017, 10:41:03 am »

Smart human. Such good question asking. If a player was essentially killed two different ways, this would be indicated in flavor, ie... “Player X died in the night. He succumbed to poison and was found shot in the head.”

Okay, this is good! We wake up tomorrow and prove I'm not the poisoner, because I can 100% guarantee that Galz won't die of poison, and even if he's NKd tonight, the rest of you will be able to see he wasn't also poisoned.

This means it's ridiculous to push for my lynch today, because there are actual scums out there and the only people wanting to risk a non-scum player over an obvious scummy one like faust are the ones who're pushing for me because I'm kind of a traditional mislynch. Even if faust isn't the poisoner, we still win if we take out a scum today and the poisoner tomorrow, once we've had one more night of info-gathering.
Why am I obviously scummy again?
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1864 on: October 09, 2017, 10:58:53 am »

Okay, last thing for my late lunch break and then I'm back to being on work time!

This LYLO/MYLO stuff isn't very useful terminology, because the different kill rates of the two factions make a difference in a kind of unexpected way.

At a normal LyLo, we have to be really careful who we vote for because one misplaced vote tends to risk scum quickhammers. That's absolutely not the case here, but Galz was really quick to sew the seeds of hesitation by coming into the day with his LyLo claim. We actually outnumber the scums seven to three, so rather than one careless town vote, it takes three for them to cause problems. That's significantly more comfortable for us, because the chance of any one of those three noticing the quickhammer effort is exponentially higher than just a single player noticing in time to remove their vote.

Anyway, I wanted to make sure people have noticed that because it hasn't jumped out at me while I was catching up. Below are a few helpful number chains of what might happen. While the top one is ideal, the bottom one isn't the end of the world, especially given that we have extra info like the fact that the masons are both on the same faction, or that the only real town evidence for e and Qvist comes via Eevee. The corner case is put there just because faust tried to make an argument about it earlier, so I wanted the numbers, and it's actually fine for us too.

BEST CASE SCENARIO:
D4: 7 town 3 scum (6 to lynch) -> correct lynch poisoner
N2: 7 town 2 scum
D5: 6 town 2 scum (5 to lynch) -> correct lynch
N5: 6 town 1 scum
D6: 5 town 1 scum (4 to lynch) -> correct lynch & win

WORST CASE SCENARIO:
D4: 7 town 3 scum (6 to lynch) -> mislynch
N4: 6 town 3 scum
D5: 4 town 3 scum (4 to lynch) -> mislynch
N5: 3 town 3 scum
D6: 1 town 3 scum (defeat)

UNLIKELY CORNER SCENARIO:
D4: 7 town 3 scum (6 to lynch) -> mislynch the N4 poison target
N4: 6 town 3 scum
D5: 5 town 3 scum (5 to lynch) -> correct non-poisoner lynch
N5: 5 town 2 scum
D6: 4 town 2 scum (3 to lynch) -> correct non-poisoner lynch
N6: 4 town 1 scum
D7: 4 town 1 scum (3 to lynch) -> lynch poisoner & win.

ACCEPTABLE CASE:
D4: 7 town 3 scum (6 to lynch) -> correct non-poisoner lynch
N4: 7 town 2 scum
D5: 5 town 2 scum (4 to lynch) -> correct non-poisoner lynch
N5: 5 town 1 scum
D6: 3 town 1 scum (3 to lynch) -> lynch poisoner & win.


PPE 1 that I'm not going to have time to respond to till later.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1865 on: October 09, 2017, 11:11:58 am »

PPE 1 that I'm not going to have time to respond to till later.
Surprise.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1866 on: October 09, 2017, 11:26:42 am »

Space, the major point to my LyLo (actually MyLo) analysis is what it appears you're overlooking:

"WORST CASE SCENARIO:
D4: 7 town 3 scum (6 to lynch) -> mislynch
N4: 6 town 3 scum
D5: 4 town 3 scum (4 to lynch) -> mislynch
N5: 3 town 3 scum
D6: 1 town 3 scum (defeat)"

Is incorrect. If today (D4) ends in a mislynch of the non-poisoned player, then there is no opportunity or middle ground to play tomorrow. We've already lost. See the same below where we perfectly lynch the Poisoner tomorrow:

D4: 7 Town 3 Scum (6 to lynch) -> mislynch
N4: 6 Town 3 Scum
D5: 4 Town 3 Scum (4 to lynch) -> Poisoner Lynch
N5: 4 Town 2 Scum
D6: 2 Town 2 Scum (Defeat)

Essentially that boils down to: We have a 4-in-10 chance of still playing tomorrow. 10% of the time we're strictly playing LyLo where we MUST lynch the Poisoner (poisoned player lynched today). 10% of the time we've taken control of the game back (Poisoner lynched today), and 20% of the time we're in the exact same situation (Non Poisoner Scum Lynched).

Regardless, none of it is truly relevant except that players should note and be aware of the situation.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 2
« Reply #1867 on: October 09, 2017, 11:28:58 am »

I tried to bury my bone. Mean one-armed man said I couldn't dig there, I would release a massive electromagnetic blast. I bit him.

Vote Count 4.4

faust (2): 2.71828, Qvist
Galzria (1): DatSwan
SpaceAnemone (1): Galzria

Not Voting (6): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, faust, Teproc, O

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on October 10 at 4:00 PM.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1868 on: October 09, 2017, 11:36:44 am »

Smart human. Such good question asking. If a player was essentially killed two different ways, this would be indicated in flavor, ie... “Player X died in the night. He succumbed to poison and was found shot in the head.”

Okay, this is good! We wake up tomorrow and prove I'm not the poisoner, because I can 100% guarantee that Galz won't die of poison, and even if he's NKd tonight, the rest of you will be able to see he wasn't also poisoned.

This means it's ridiculous to push for my lynch today, because there are actual scums out there and the only people wanting to risk a non-scum player over an obvious scummy one like faust are the ones who're pushing for me because I'm kind of a traditional mislynch. Even if faust isn't the poisoner, we still win if we take out a scum today and the poisoner tomorrow, once we've had one more night of info-gathering.

If you're scum I could still die of Poison - but I doubt you make a big deal over this if you or your team had me poisoned so I'm inclined to believe that I'm not.

The rest of your post circles back on itself. The inference is that we shouldn't lynch you because 'proof from tomorrow' that you're not the Poisoner, and should thus look for scum elsewhere - but you end with "Even if faust isn't the poisoner, we still win if we take out a scum today and the poisoner tomorrow".

I don't believe you're the Poisoner, no. I believe you're what you've claimed. But I also think you're scum, so lynching you isn't really bad.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1869 on: October 09, 2017, 11:40:47 am »

I don't ever remember having this many people I'm debating voting.

I wish I was more certain that the masons are town, but even if there is a worry in the back of my head, I can't say that I think they are our best bet. Still, doesn't feel good.

Initially I was scummier on Space, then for a while I thought we might just both be town, and now this recent flurry of posts has left me scummier again.

Galzria I've gone back and forth about 17 times. I think there is an ego bias where I think I'd feel more stupid if I was fooled by Galzria than I would if I was fooled by other forum players (because if he lives long you just got to lynch him, I learned this years ago). Still, while I'm extremely worried, I don't think I want to lynch him either.

RR I was feeling very scummy on, and now that's waning mostly through me becoming more paranoid about other players, RR himself really hasn't done much. Still wondering why he isn't more on the table as a lynch option.

I don't think I like lynching faust. One of the things that's making me townier on Galz is his analysis on faust, I agree 100% this is not how I'd expect him to play scum. Really looking forward to see where faust's vote lands.

It's always hard to read people you haven't played before (not that it's going well with the people I have played before here), I'm very lost with Swan. I kind of think they could very well be scum, but I have a hard time rationalizing why they'd be the most likely person.

e I've felt townier ever since my result, I've liked his reads (and I liked him not targetting anyone). But, you know, some light buddying and agreeing with my reads is always how scum gets me to trust him, so while I'm sure I don't want to lynch e today, I'm pretty paranoid he could be scum doing very well.

So, literally switching the target in my head among most of you, not sure who I want to vote.

Deadline is tomorrow at 4pm forum time, fwiw.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1870 on: October 09, 2017, 11:50:31 am »

No lynch is bad when scum gets two kills a night.

Do I win the mylo/lylo analysis game ?

faust, you contend that there must be a scum roleblocker. I get that there's a missing NK from LL, but

oh and... I am not trolling you. I am town, played townie and did nothing that hurt town.

This lead me to think LL might have no killed. He has no incentive to lie at that point (post-hammer)... granted, he has no incentive to tell the truth either.

It sounds absurd to no kill as SK, but
a) It lets him support his JK claim (I think he did JK gkrieg)
b) He had no info on N1 on who the candidates were. I thought at the time this would lead him to kill iguana, but I guess he might have hoped iguana's existence would lead to Candidates dying and would help his cause, and then he decided that shooting randomly was not worth the risk of getting caught by a Tracker/Watcher

Combined with the fact that I don't really see why a scum!Roleblocker doesn't claim Roleblocker (it's kinda of a scummy claim yes, but so is VT), and I don't think there is a Roleblocker here.

I do agree e should full claim actually.

I was not suggesting it, merely pointing out my oversight in terminology. It's incredibly bad not because scum gets 2 kills per night, but because we only continue playing on a Poisoner Lynch the following day. Even lynching regular scum ends in a loss. That's really a shot in the dark.

For more relevant convo though:

I think you're just wrong here. First off, LL was SK, not town - as stated in that same post you pulled to say he had no reason to lie. Second, while it's possible that he didn't shoot, it's strictly against his wincon to do so. It's not like we were unaware of a SK being in the game. A 1-16 chance to hit a candidate is still better than a 0-16 chance. Third, he could JK and Shoot simultaneously. Not like he had to choose one over the other to verify his JK claim. And what? He was going to get Gkrieg lynched as the "blocked SK"? Third, Mafia didn't NK or Poison him. A claimed JK not aligned with their faction. They had no way of knowing he was SK. As far as they knew he was town. I do not believe that they would have taken two random shots in the dark hoping to hit other PR's over taking the one claimed PR (and one that could potentially both block or doctor their kills) out unless they had a way to nullify him.

You think a RB would claim? One has. It's e. But you think he's town, so I don't know what to tell you.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1871 on: October 09, 2017, 11:56:35 am »

I'm also of the opinion that Space is probably the watcher, just the alignment is unclear.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1872 on: October 09, 2017, 12:13:05 pm »

Really looking forward to see where faust's vote lands.
Oh yeah me too.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1873 on: October 09, 2017, 12:24:14 pm »

I'm pretty sure that Eevee's not a Poisoner. The early claim does not make sense from a Poisoner!Eevee perspective. So among Space/Eevee I would definitely go for Space.

I just don't think there is any chance that the Masons get lynched at this point. They could well be scum, but there is little to do about that. The upside is that PoE is pretty strong if they are town. It may make sense to look for their most likely partner, as that is our only shot of winning if they are scum, and they are likely scum anyway if Teproc/O are town.

If I had to one single player that Teproc and O did not focus on at all, I'm landing on RR/e. I see no obvious reason why they are town. e more so because he is riding out his confirmation bias like there's no tomorrow, and that sort of conviction is not easily faked as scum.

Then there is DatSwan. I know he is posting a lot, but I cannot really recall any substance. The slot is a convenient one for scum to hide in, plus he's claimed VT. Galzria I'm suspicious of due to what role he went for... but on the other hand, scum!Galz would not be a VT I guess. And that means that Galz is less likely to be the Poisoner.

So I suppose my pool looks something like Space/DatSwan/RR.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 4
« Reply #1874 on: October 09, 2017, 12:40:14 pm »

RR is at that intersection of scummy player/possible fake!Mason partner, so let's look at that.

I don't want to lynch iguana D1.

Oh yeah, there the "flailing" thing mid D1. I remember that was pretty scummy. RR is concerned about what people think of him, and that is despite trying to explain at length that he doesn't care. It doesn't fit. Poisoner!RR would have to be pretty worried about being lynched D1 though. Let's look at wagon composition:

RR (7): Iguana, Qvist, Swan, Galz, Faust, Arche, Eevee

(taken from one of Galz's posts; maybe Space wants to double-check)

Neither of the Masons is on there. On the other hand, quite some of the living players remaining. Note that Galz unvotes after this. Space is not here, and e isn't, but it does limit the scumteam options somewhat.

Intent to put to L-1
That seems overly cautious.

Overall we don't have a lot of substance. I can very much see a Teproc/O/RR team. There are options for him being scum with other players, but they are rather limited.
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