Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[faust]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

Why why why why why why why why why why why why why why

[Roadrunner7671]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

Why why why why why why why why why why why why why why

What's yours?

[faust]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

Why why why why why why why why why why why why why why

What's yours?

You don't seriously expect me to answer your questions when you ignore mine?

[Galzria]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

It's absolutely, 100%, not bogus, no. Scum made bids. Those bids were designed to get them high draft spots. Deciphering what bids they made is completely relevant to who they are.

Then why did you not argue for a massclaim D1?

Because there's no reason to give scum knowledge of where PR's are? That's not rocket science man, c'mon.

Early claiming benefits scum. Late claiming benefits town. That's why that's standard practice. Town WANTS the knowledge, but it hurts them to acquire it. Early on the loses don't overcome the gains. Later on they do.

[Roadrunner7671]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

Why why why why why why why why why why why why why why

What's yours?

You don't seriously expect me to answer your questions when you ignore mine?

Yes?

[Galzria]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

I personally believe you've got 2 scum in there, not 3. But I think the Poisoner is one of them, so as long as we lynch there, it's all gravy.

[Roadrunner7671]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

I personally believe you've got 2 scum in there, not 3. But I think the Poisoner is one of them, so as long as we lynch there, it's all gravy.

So you think the third scum is me? Or you think one of Eevee/Space are scum?

[faust]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

It's absolutely, 100%, not bogus, no. Scum made bids. Those bids were designed to get them high draft spots. Deciphering what bids they made is completely relevant to who they are.

Then why did you not argue for a massclaim D1?

Because there's no reason to give scum knowledge of where PR's are? That's not rocket science man, c'mon.

Early claiming benefits scum. Late claiming benefits town. That's why that's standard practice. Town WANTS the knowledge, but it hurts them to acquire it. Early on the loses don't overcome the gains. Later on they do.

Mostly I think you are assuming way too much about how scum would play. Yes, likely they'd pick a Lost number to secure a high spot. But they did that with iguana's counterpart, and so that wasn't claimed. They could have gone for another Lost number, or not. Beyond here it's really hard to say what they would do since getting high bids and not playing them in a townie manner outs scum pretty quickly. Plus bidding Lost numbers runs a high chance of ending up low, so they'd want to bid at least some non-Lost numbers. Overall it's just a sea of WIFOM with almost no information to navigate.

I mean, we have the claims, and we should do things with them, but not this way. For example we have two claimed investigative roles that operated for 3 nights without a single incriminating result. I strongly suspect there's at least one scum in there.

[faust]

We should also think about the fact that scum likely has a Rolecop, and what that meas with regards to the claims.

[Galzria]

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

You might want to put some work into your reads then. And by developing reads I don't mean wildly speculating about bids which does not lead anywhere at all.

I don't think I need advice from you on how to successfully play as town, thanks.

Sorry Faust, this was sharper than intended.

We obviously have very different play styles. This wss apparent in 105, and it's apparent here. I'm not going to argue that your way is wrong. It's simply different. I'm also not going to argue my way is right. But it's effective for me. Breaking down the game from a numbers perspective, and removing meta or bias allows me to better understand what's happening.

I play scum particularly well. Finding myself in the heads of scum when I'm town is what works for me. Doesn't need to work for you. That's ok.

[Galzria]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

It's absolutely, 100%, not bogus, no. Scum made bids. Those bids were designed to get them high draft spots. Deciphering what bids they made is completely relevant to who they are.

Then why did you not argue for a massclaim D1?

Because there's no reason to give scum knowledge of where PR's are? That's not rocket science man, c'mon.

Early claiming benefits scum. Late claiming benefits town. That's why that's standard practice. Town WANTS the knowledge, but it hurts them to acquire it. Early on the loses don't overcome the gains. Later on they do.

Mostly I think you are assuming way too much about how scum would play. Yes, likely they'd pick a Lost number to secure a high spot. But they did that with iguana's counterpart, and so that wasn't claimed. They could have gone for another Lost number, or not. Beyond here it's really hard to say what they would do since getting high bids and not playing them in a townie manner outs scum pretty quickly. Plus bidding Lost numbers runs a high chance of ending up low, so they'd want to bid at least some non-Lost numbers. Overall it's just a sea of WIFOM with almost no information to navigate.

I mean, we have the claims, and we should do things with them, but not this way. For example we have two claimed investigative roles that operated for 3 nights without a single incriminating result. I strongly suspect there's at least one scum in there.

You've summed up my scum team and  reasons without using names or numbers.

I'll dig up my post for you to read again, but essentially, everything you've said above: Yrs

[Galzria]

Here's where I'm at:

I know I'm town. I don't know about you two, or about anybody else. However I DO know that IF you're town and voting me then town has effectively lost. Therefore if I'm to believe town has any hope of winning, then I must believe that you're scum. That's probably wrong. You're probably town, and you're simply locking town into a loss. You can't know that, of course. So while I'm personally salty about it, it is what it is.

I've made my cases for my picks for scum. I think the team is:

DatSwan: Bid 4, Draft #1 - Poisoner. Taken based off his bid last time, Space claimed to have expected adjustments from the first draft. That would indicate a movement off bid #4.

Space: Bid 16, Draft #3 - Watcher. They would take it as town, and took it as scum last roll based on this meta. No reason to change it up. Got the opportunity and took it again.

Iguana: Bid 23, Draft #10 - VT. Could have bid anything, but probably went Jailkeeper, losing to LaLight. The claim for Swan going Barracks and failing here works because:

e: Bid 73, Draft #9 - Barracks, JoaT/RB. He knew e took it ahead of him. This claim has good middle ground coverage and tells scum where the separation between unique bids and doubles lTH. On the off chance his teammates got bounced above, his position would improve.

I would like to lynch Swan. I think he's the poisoner. But unless you two are willing to support me in this (or Space or e) it doesn't matter.

[Galzria]

Note as well when rereading them their lack of interactions with one another.

[Galzria]

Further, e wanting to see claims from 10-17 would tell them who the top 6 Town Drafts belonged to. Town would get minimal information, scum maximum.

[faust]

Note as well when rereading them their lack of interactions with one another.

Well I don't think piecing together scum teams is all that productive just yet. I think I could write a blurb like the one you wrote for every player in the game.

[Teproc]

Note as well when rereading them their lack of interactions with one another.

Well I don't think piecing together scum teams is all that productive just yet. I think I could write a blurb like the one you wrote for every player in the game.

Back from V/LA though nopt fully caught up: no. Thinking in scumteams is good at lylo specifically. And I strongly disagree that we can't make anything out of the bids. I would be very surprised if scum bid less than 3 Lost numbers, given how lopsided the scum roles are in this setup. On the contrary, I think town is more likely to have bid in more conservative ways, because the power distribution is much smoother on the town side.

I'm not taht surprised no one went for Gunsmith (like last time), though I agree it's the strongest town role. Below a certain point it feels useless to go for it because surely someone else has, so all it requires is two people at the top prioritizing something else (like me generally wanting to avoid investigative roles and figuring Mason was more likely than Gunsmith at #5).

There is the specific case of Space though. Space, why Watcher over Gunsmith ? 

[Teproc]

And my case on Galzria is certainly not a lazy as your case on no one, faust.

As fopr not caring about what heppened prior to massclaim, well... this has not been the best game for informative wagons. I do think Galzria has been the scummiest player all game by a wide margin, and feels different from what he was in M105. Yes, this is not a convincing case, but as someone who has made a lot of convincing cases on town (I'm sure you can relate), I feel there is very little correlation between how convincing a case is and how correct it turns out to be.

[Teproc]

What do people think of Galz's reaction to my vote on him (and O's).

[2.71828.....]

I probably won't be able to do much here until Monday afternoon/evening. If you guys want to build a case against me, cool. Just don't lynch me. So many better options.

Willing to lynch datswan or faust

[Eevee]

Reread Galzria.

What do people think of Galz's reaction to my vote on him (and O's).

i think it was scummy, but on the whole I think Galzria looks towny, probably don't want to lynch him today. A lot of analysis today I agreed with.

Maybe looking at swan next, need a break though. I'll try to find a place I like for my vote today.

[Swowl]

What do people think of Galz's reaction to my vote on him (and O's).

I want to believe that the same player that posts so adamantly about how "we are going to lose because you are voting me" would not also come off with short one liners of confidence like "try harder". Other than the reactions immediately following the votes, I don't think there are many inconsistencies with how Town!Galz would react.

That being said, after reading and thinking for several days now... I find his inability to drop me as exactly the poisoner target strange, as well as how he would leave himself off the "Lost Number Lynch List" even though he is also a Lost Number. It feels a lot like he realized the LYLO situation, and figured the best way out in front of it would be to be the one "running it" by bringing it up and pushing its logic. I can say that if that is the case, it worked quite well.. because I did not even realize that by doing it he was removing himself from the process until I went back to read again.

I have now changed my mind on Galz being town by the way. To be safe I am not going to vote at this time. But I believe I would be on board with a Galz lynch.

PPE

[Teproc]

I probably won't be able to do much here until Monday afternoon/evening. If you guys want to build a case against me, cool. Just don't lynch me. So many better options.

Willing to lynch datswan or faust

Why not Galz ?

[Teproc]

And, for Galz's sake: this is not me trying to rally people to your lynch because I am 100% convinced you're scum. This is me trying to understand why people seem to think you're town.

[Teproc]

faust, do you intend to state willingness to lynch anyone (besides me/O) before deadline, or are you simply not interested in this game ?

[Teproc]

I guess that was unnecessarily mean, you've been V/LA. Still, I'd like to know who exactly you think is scum here (aside from O and me, if that's still a thing).