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Author Topic: The bad luck thread  (Read 43195 times)

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vishwathg

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #100 on: September 16, 2018, 10:53:14 am »
+4

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

I just played a game where I opened Leprechaun/Silver (8 Kingdom cards cost $5).

1. Turn 3 play resulted in Bad Omens, which allowed me to get my Gold and Leprechaun in hand the next turn.
2. Turn 4 play resulted in Locusts trashing my Hovel.
3. Turn 7 play resulted in Haunting allowing me to topdeck an Action.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #101 on: September 19, 2018, 12:34:37 am »
+5

A game with no trashing, my opponent went for knights, I went for Mountebanks.

Here is every time they played a Knight until the 25th turn, and how many trashable cards I had in my deck out of the total count:

turn 4 - 2/12 - hit Silver
turn 7 - 5/15 - hit Mountebank
turn 8 - 5/15 - hit Silver
turn 10 - 5/15 - hit Dame Anna
turn 12 - 7/17 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 13 - 7/17 - hit Silver and Mountebank
turn 18 - 9/20 - hit Changeling
turn 20 - 9/21 - hit Bazaar
turn 22 - 10/22 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 23 - 9/21 - hit Mountebank
turn 24 - 8/20 - hit Mountebank
turn 25 - 7/20 - first miss!

(Even with that extreme luch, they had no chance. They resigned soon after, because they had a deck full of curses.)


I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 24 times as 0.13%!
I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 12 times as 0.04% 0.075% 0.28%!
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 08:22:40 am by Jeebus »
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Chappy7

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #102 on: September 19, 2018, 10:45:44 am »
0

A game with no trashing, my opponent went for knights, I went for Mountebanks.

Here is every time they played a Knight until the 25th turn, and how many trashable cards I had in my deck out of the total count:

turn 4 - 2/12 - hit Silver
turn 7 - 5/15 - hit Mountebank
turn 8 - 5/15 - hit Silver
turn 10 - 5/15 - hit Dame Anna
turn 12 - 7/17 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 13 - 7/17 - hit Silver and Mountebank
turn 18 - 9/20 - hit Changeling
turn 20 - 9/21 - hit Bazaar
turn 22 - 10/22 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 23 - 9/21 - hit Mountebank
turn 24 - 8/20 - hit Mountebank
turn 25 - 7/20 - first miss!

(Even with that extreme luch, they had no chance. They resigned soon after, because they had a deck full of curses.)

I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 24 times as 0.13%!

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #103 on: September 19, 2018, 11:13:45 am »
0

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 11:16:33 am by Jeebus »
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samath

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #104 on: September 20, 2018, 09:17:23 am »
0

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.
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Screwyioux

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #105 on: September 20, 2018, 09:44:38 am »
+11

Did I ever tell you about the time Swindler turned my Goat into an Estate on turn 3?
On a board with no other trashing?

Because I'm NOT over it.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #106 on: September 20, 2018, 10:28:45 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 09:10:36 am by Jeebus »
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #107 on: September 20, 2018, 08:51:26 pm »
+2

So, the game I just played.

Opponent bought a Death Cart for some reason. He wasn't doing anything clever with it.

He promptly collides the Cart with a Ruin, and then spends his $8 on a Prince.

So now his deck has a Death Cart, a Ruin... and a Prince.

But! He then gets an Oracle.

And then collides the Oracle with the Prince the first time he draws them.

I had a strong suspicion this meant the game was over, but I kept playing anyway.

I got my own Prince and Oracle later on, after I trash down.

They proceed to spend most of the game avoiding each other.

Eventually I do collide them, and get a Province and a Duchy... while he already has 4 Provinces.

The cherry on top was right after this when I discarded 2 Silvers with my Princed Oracle... and instead draw the Province and the Duchy.
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ipofanes

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #108 on: September 21, 2018, 04:49:34 am »
+1

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

Isn't that what "Dear My Opponent: I am Sorry" is for?
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Awaclus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #109 on: September 21, 2018, 05:41:23 am »
+4

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

Isn't that what "Dear My Opponent: I am Sorry" is for?

Yes, but that thread is a bit more difficult to find because it's actually in the appropriate subforum, which is rare for game reports threads.
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vishwathg

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #110 on: September 23, 2018, 07:05:19 pm »
+1

Another entry here:

At the end of turn 16, I was up 40-27 with two piles empty. (This was a game with Fairgrounds.) Then I proceed to not hit $5 for eleven straight turns while my opponent was merrily buying Fairgrounds and Provinces. When the dust settled, the score was 47-46 in his favor. I must admit I whined about my luck a little after the game ended.
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J Reggie

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #111 on: September 23, 2018, 11:03:03 pm »
+2

Kind of similar to another one recently:

J plays a Patrician.
J draws a Patrician.
J reveals a Copper.
J plays a Patrician.
J draws a Copper.
J reveals an Estate.
J plays a Will-o'-wisp.
J draws an Estate.
J reveals a Merchant Guild.
J topdecks a Merchant Guild.

Honkeyfresh

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #112 on: September 24, 2018, 01:21:49 am »
+8

Got lone rebuilfd from black market.  Asked the gods to let my rebuild and market square collide.  Welll, technically I got what I asked for.  The devil is in the details.



I won easily though.  Turns out Lone rebuild triumph, apprentice, and royal carriage might is much better than even normal rebuild i think. and i didnt play it great as i got a treasury first
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 01:32:43 am by Honkeyfresh »
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samath

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #113 on: September 24, 2018, 02:48:44 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.

I get 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. So it seems you go wrong somewhere in the middle with 57%, 43% and 33% replacing the two 67%'s (from the 7/17's). You also only had 11 hits, not 12 -- the 12th line you listed was the first miss.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #114 on: September 24, 2018, 08:21:33 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.

I get 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. So it seems you go wrong somewhere in the middle with 57%, 43% and 33% replacing the two 67%'s (from the 7/17's). You also only had 11 hits, not 12 -- the 12th line you listed was the first miss.

Ok, you're right, I put in the wrong numbers for turn 12 and 13. I don't know how I did that. But there were 12 hits, not 11, since my opponent hit twice on turn 13!
The correct percentages are: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. This makes the probability 0.28%, once in every 361 games.

Dingan

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #115 on: September 24, 2018, 03:10:10 pm »
0

Got lone rebuilfd from black market.  Asked the gods to let my rebuild and market square collide.  Welll, technically I got what I asked for.  The devil is in the details.



I won easily though.  Turns out Lone rebuild triumph, apprentice, and royal carriage might is much better than even normal rebuild i think. and i didnt play it great as i got a treasury first

At least you will presumably have a somewhat decent chance at Mint'ing away a lot of Coppers.
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #116 on: November 27, 2018, 08:41:08 pm »
+4

C draws a Copper, 2 Estates and 2 Misers.

Turn 5 - N
N plays a Taxman.
N trashes a Copper.
C discards a Copper.
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Simon Jester

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #117 on: December 03, 2018, 09:30:02 pm »
+3

Alas, it happened at last. I got a Prize, Trusty Steed - super-crucial or my deck- swapped to curse by Swindler.

It still hurts.
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #118 on: December 26, 2018, 09:35:36 pm »
0

I just had a game where Pooka still screwed me over despite one of the very best enablers, Coin of the Realm, being on the board. I drew the Pooka at least 3 times and never once drew a Copper with it.

Of course, this could also just be further evidence that Pooka is a terrible, terrible card. Considering other games I've played with it, I'm starting to lean towards the latter.
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #119 on: January 05, 2019, 12:09:55 pm »
0

The game I just played had the dominant synergy of IGG + Guildhall. I opened 3/4 and my opponent opened 4/3.

4/3 vs 3/4 made all the difference. There was also Baker, so my opponent could buy Guildhall on turn 1 and then get get a Coffer for his turn 2 Silver, whereas I had to get the Silver on turn 1 and Guildhall on turn 2 and got no Coffers. The extra Coffer let him buy 2 IGGs on the next shuffle, whereas I could only buy 1. His advantage snowballed from there, letting him win the IGG split 6-4 and making it almost mathematically impossible for me to win.
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crj

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #120 on: April 29, 2019, 08:23:22 pm »
0

A game this evening. Knights and Graverobber.

I begin by stocking up on Knights. At just the right moment, when the trash is beginning to be populated with useful stuff, I invest in a Graverobber.

14-card deck; opponent plays a single Knight during that shuffle; it hits Graverobber. So I buy another one.

Next cycle through the deck, the exact same thing happens. And the next.

Meanwhile, opponent has bought their own Graverobber and used it to fish my ones out of the trash. )-8
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buckets

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #121 on: May 22, 2019, 09:07:19 am »
0

I've dead-drawn my first Throne Room in the last 6 games where I bought it.
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Gubump

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #122 on: May 31, 2019, 12:43:17 pm »
0

I had 4 Coppers in my entire deck, and one Gold. I had about 20-ish cards total in my deck.

I drew my Gold along with my 4 Coppers, and had two Coffers, enough to buy a Platinum (which we were using that game).

My Mom plays a Villain, discarding my Gold. Her Villain was the only one that anybody owned. The odds of her making me discard my Gold was ~1/49,612.8, or ~0.002%. I think this might have been the most pissed-off a single card has ever made me.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 12:55:06 pm by Gubump »
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #123 on: June 01, 2019, 12:07:49 pm »
+1

When I didn't have any Coppers in hand:

C plays a Border Guard.
C gets +1 Action.
C reveals 2 Coppers and a Moneylender.
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Gubump

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #124 on: June 01, 2019, 01:50:14 pm »
0

When I didn't have any Coppers in hand:

C plays a Border Guard.
C gets +1 Action.
C reveals 2 Coppers and a Moneylender.

I take it you had the Lantern at the time?
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