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Author Topic: The bad luck thread  (Read 9177 times)

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vishwathg

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #100 on: September 16, 2018, 10:53:14 am »
+3

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

I just played a game where I opened Leprechaun/Silver (8 Kingdom cards cost $5).

1. Turn 3 play resulted in Bad Omens, which allowed me to get my Gold and Leprechaun in hand the next turn.
2. Turn 4 play resulted in Locusts trashing my Hovel.
3. Turn 7 play resulted in Haunting allowing me to topdeck an Action.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #101 on: September 19, 2018, 12:34:37 am »
+4

A game with no trashing, my opponent went for knights, I went for Mountebanks.

Here is every time they played a Knight until the 25th turn, and how many trashable cards I had in my deck out of the total count:

turn 4 - 2/12 - hit Silver
turn 7 - 5/15 - hit Mountebank
turn 8 - 5/15 - hit Silver
turn 10 - 5/15 - hit Dame Anna
turn 12 - 7/17 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 13 - 7/17 - hit Silver and Mountebank
turn 18 - 9/20 - hit Changeling
turn 20 - 9/21 - hit Bazaar
turn 22 - 10/22 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 23 - 9/21 - hit Mountebank
turn 24 - 8/20 - hit Mountebank
turn 25 - 7/20 - first miss!

(Even with that extreme luch, they had no chance. They resigned soon after, because they had a deck full of curses.)


I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 24 times as 0.13%!
I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 12 times as 0.04% 0.075% 0.28%!
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 08:22:40 am by Jeebus »
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Chappy7

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #102 on: September 19, 2018, 10:45:44 am »
0

A game with no trashing, my opponent went for knights, I went for Mountebanks.

Here is every time they played a Knight until the 25th turn, and how many trashable cards I had in my deck out of the total count:

turn 4 - 2/12 - hit Silver
turn 7 - 5/15 - hit Mountebank
turn 8 - 5/15 - hit Silver
turn 10 - 5/15 - hit Dame Anna
turn 12 - 7/17 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 13 - 7/17 - hit Silver and Mountebank
turn 18 - 9/20 - hit Changeling
turn 20 - 9/21 - hit Bazaar
turn 22 - 10/22 - hit Haunted Woods
turn 23 - 9/21 - hit Mountebank
turn 24 - 8/20 - hit Mountebank
turn 25 - 7/20 - first miss!

(Even with that extreme luch, they had no chance. They resigned soon after, because they had a deck full of curses.)

I calculated the probabilty of hitting the first 24 times as 0.13%!

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #103 on: September 19, 2018, 11:13:45 am »
0

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 11:16:33 am by Jeebus »
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samath

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #104 on: September 20, 2018, 09:17:23 am »
0

Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.
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Screwyioux

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #105 on: September 20, 2018, 09:44:38 am »
+7

Did I ever tell you about the time Swindler turned my Goat into an Estate on turn 3?
On a board with no other trashing?

Because I'm NOT over it.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #106 on: September 20, 2018, 10:28:45 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 09:10:36 am by Jeebus »
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #107 on: September 20, 2018, 08:51:26 pm »
+2

So, the game I just played.

Opponent bought a Death Cart for some reason. He wasn't doing anything clever with it.

He promptly collides the Cart with a Ruin, and then spends his $8 on a Prince.

So now his deck has a Death Cart, a Ruin... and a Prince.

But! He then gets an Oracle.

And then collides the Oracle with the Prince the first time he draws them.

I had a strong suspicion this meant the game was over, but I kept playing anyway.

I got my own Prince and Oracle later on, after I trash down.

They proceed to spend most of the game avoiding each other.

Eventually I do collide them, and get a Province and a Duchy... while he already has 4 Provinces.

The cherry on top was right after this when I discarded 2 Silvers with my Princed Oracle... and instead draw the Province and the Duchy.
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ipofanes

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #108 on: September 21, 2018, 04:49:34 am »
+1

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

Isn't that what "Dear My Opponent: I am Sorry" is for?
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Awaclus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #109 on: September 21, 2018, 05:41:23 am »
+1

I know this is the exact opposite of bad luck, but I don't know where to put it:

Isn't that what "Dear My Opponent: I am Sorry" is for?

Yes, but that thread is a bit more difficult to find because it's actually in the appropriate subforum, which is rare for game reports threads.
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vishwathg

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #110 on: September 23, 2018, 07:05:19 pm »
+1

Another entry here:

At the end of turn 16, I was up 40-27 with two piles empty. (This was a game with Fairgrounds.) Then I proceed to not hit $5 for eleven straight turns while my opponent was merrily buying Fairgrounds and Provinces. When the dust settled, the score was 47-46 in his favor. I must admit I whined about my luck a little after the game ended.
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J Reggie

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #111 on: September 23, 2018, 11:03:03 pm »
+2

Kind of similar to another one recently:

J plays a Patrician.
J draws a Patrician.
J reveals a Copper.
J plays a Patrician.
J draws a Copper.
J reveals an Estate.
J plays a Will-o'-wisp.
J draws an Estate.
J reveals a Merchant Guild.
J topdecks a Merchant Guild.

Honkeyfresh

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #112 on: September 24, 2018, 01:21:49 am »
+5

Got lone rebuilfd from black market.  Asked the gods to let my rebuild and market square collide.  Welll, technically I got what I asked for.  The devil is in the details.



I won easily though.  Turns out Lone rebuild triumph, apprentice, and royal carriage might is much better than even normal rebuild i think. and i didnt play it great as i got a treasury first
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 01:32:43 am by Honkeyfresh »
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samath

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #113 on: September 24, 2018, 02:48:44 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.

I get 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. So it seems you go wrong somewhere in the middle with 57%, 43% and 33% replacing the two 67%'s (from the 7/17's). You also only had 11 hits, not 12 -- the 12th line you listed was the first miss.
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Jeebus

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #114 on: September 24, 2018, 08:21:33 am »
0

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.

I get 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. So it seems you go wrong somewhere in the middle with 57%, 43% and 33% replacing the two 67%'s (from the 7/17's). You also only had 11 hits, not 12 -- the 12th line you listed was the first miss.

Ok, you're right, I put in the wrong numbers for turn 12 and 13. I don't know how I did that. But there were 12 hits, not 11, since my opponent hit twice on turn 13!
The correct percentages are: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. This makes the probability 0.28%, once in every 361 games.

Dingan

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Re: The bad luck thread
« Reply #115 on: September 24, 2018, 03:10:10 pm »
0

Got lone rebuilfd from black market.  Asked the gods to let my rebuild and market square collide.  Welll, technically I got what I asked for.  The devil is in the details.



I won easily though.  Turns out Lone rebuild triumph, apprentice, and royal carriage might is much better than even normal rebuild i think. and i didnt play it great as i got a treasury first

At least you will presumably have a somewhat decent chance at Mint'ing away a lot of Coppers.
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