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Author Topic: The swingiest card ever  (Read 3522 times)

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Burning Skull

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The swingiest card ever
« on: June 26, 2017, 07:35:44 am »
+10

You are a true King of Dominion. Your plays are 93% correct all the time.
You park the limo in front of your palace and head inside, waving to peasants, who are blinded by your beautiful golden teeth and leopard leggings.
With an aristocratic gesture you put your shades on and start a new game, sure of your inevitable victory even before seeing the kingdom.
...
Few minutes have passed and OH MY GOD, what is this? You've lost the game!!! Your palace burns, your are on your knees, barking like a dog, crying, chewing paper.
Peasants are all around, they are happy, they pillage, they laugh, they find you and hang you in the ball room, beforehand letting you know they never actually thought you are a good Dominion player.

So what led to this terrible disaster? Were there maybe some bad choices you've made in the game? Impossible, you are the King after all!
It must have been luck! What card did this cruel thing to you?
Was it a Chapel, missing the shuffle and colliding with a freshly bought Duchess? Was it a Bag of Gold, which your opponent stole from you in a Tournament? Or was your entire deck Swindled into Curses?

What is this unholy abomination of a card, which will serve you as a tombstone?

Awaclus

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2017, 08:03:50 am »
0

I don't think anything comes even close to Chapel. If your opponent opens 5/2 and you don't and there's a $5 worth opening with, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel collides with your other card, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel misses the reshuffle, you're completely screwed. At least Sauna gives you a chance to recover by including two separate splits, both of which you want to win so even if you fall behind on trashing, you can win the splits to make up for it a little, although it's also a pretty big offender.

LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2017, 08:56:01 am »
0

I don't think anything comes even close to Chapel. If your opponent opens 5/2 and you don't and there's a $5 worth opening with, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel collides with your other card, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel misses the reshuffle, you're completely screwed. At least Sauna gives you a chance to recover by including two separate splits, both of which you want to win so even if you fall behind on trashing, you can win the splits to make up for it a little, although it's also a pretty big offender.

Even if your Chapel collides with 4 Coppers, you're pretty screwed compared to an opponent who was able to trash an Estate or two on turn 3 or 4.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2017, 09:01:55 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
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Watno

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2017, 09:04:09 am »
+1

Where is minion? It sure feels like the swingiest card ever?
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2017, 09:08:12 am »
+1

Swindler tbh, the rest at least feel like they are recoverable while I'm still playing, even if the odds really are near zero.
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2017, 10:19:25 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)

All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.
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Awaclus

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2017, 10:26:03 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament isn't that swingy, you have plenty of time to mitigate the RNG with your choices before it really kicks in.

Skumpy

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2017, 11:02:00 am »
0

*cough Black Market *cough
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2017, 12:21:26 pm »
+3

*cough Black Market *cough

Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.
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JW

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2017, 12:59:56 pm »
0

Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.

This is even more true in the new Dominion Online, because the Black Market has 60 cards which means that it's very unlikely that one player will get, say, the only two +buy cards out of the Black Market (as could happen in the old implementation with a 25-card Black Market). Speaking of, Stef, why does your signature link to the Dominion league and not to Dominion Online?
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xyz123

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 01:32:20 pm »
+2

Dame Anna when she is the top Knight and there are no other trashers.

Followers when there are no trashers and no other cursers. It might as well just say ruin both decks but have a points swing in your favour.
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Qvist

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2017, 01:56:57 pm »
+1

Interesting question. Doctor might be really high up there. If you open 5/2 and draw Doctor turn 2 again, maybe even trashing 3 Coppers, you are like 3 turns already in turn 2.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2017, 03:04:01 pm »
0

To me it's Swindler.

I feel like what makes Chapel swingy isn't that different from what makes any game swingy, but with Swindler the swinginess is built into the card (more or less).

A turn 3 Swindler could trash an Estate for an Estate, potentially helping your opponent; or it could turn their 5-cost buy into a Duchy before they get to use it once.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2017, 03:07:08 pm »
+1

To me it's Swindler.

I feel like what makes Chapel swingy isn't that different from what makes any game swingy, but with Swindler the swinginess is built into the card (more or less).

A turn 3 Swindler could trash an Estate for an Estate, potentially helping your opponent; or it could turn their 5-cost buy into a Duchy before they get to use it once.

I think any card that lets you trash two or more cards at once is incredibly swingy. Trading Post, Chapel, and Sentry are the big ones that come to mind. Also Steward. If you can trash two Estates on turn 3 or 4, that's just such an enormous boost. Swinder can turn your early $5 into a Duchy, but apart from that I don't think it comes close to Chapel.
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Chris is me

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2017, 03:23:17 pm »
+5

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2017, 03:41:03 pm »
+1

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff

Yes, in retrospect I wish I had suggested "You may trash one of them. You may discard one of them. Put the rest back in any order." Maybe it would have been too weak that way, dunno.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2017, 03:42:53 pm »
+1

I don't know how to answer this question, but I do want to chime in that Urchin definitely deserves its place in the list.  If somebody gets their Mercenary a shuffle earlier (which happens often), that player's advantage can snowball quickly.  Trying to fight back against an opponent's early Mercenary is very unpleasant.

I also find Familiar and Cultist to be some of the swingiest cards.  With these cards, it doesn't take much luck/variance to win or lose the Curse or Ruins split by 7-3 or more.  On some boards, this is simply game over.  With all of the other junkers, I expect the junk split to be 6-4 or 5-5 if both players pursue the junker.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2017, 03:43:12 pm »
0

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
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JW

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2017, 03:51:36 pm »
+2

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

rrenaud calculated a measure like this several years ago: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2798.msg47781#msg47781

Black Market and Chapel are among the least swingy. Jack, Embassy, and Swindler are among the most swingy. Tournament is among the less swingy cards. This was pre-Dark Ages.

This is from sample of 2.5 M iso games. 

The measure is how hard a time trueskill had at predicting the winner, measured in conditional entropy given a card was in the supply. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_entropy

Goons 0.689 ± 0.002
Colony 0.694 ± 0.001
Platinum 0.694 ± 0.001
Bishop 0.695 ± 0.002
Ambassador 0.695 ± 0.002
Grand Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Black Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Worker's Village 0.697 ± 0.002
Chapel 0.697 ± 0.002
Peddler 0.698 ± 0.002
Young Witch 0.698 ± 0.003
Expand 0.699 ± 0.002
Masquerade 0.699 ± 0.002
Hunting Party 0.699 ± 0.002
Witch 0.700 ± 0.002
Ghost Ship 0.700 ± 0.002
Hamlet 0.700 ± 0.002
Mountebank 0.700 ± 0.002
Minion 0.700 ± 0.002
King's Court 0.700 ± 0.002
Sea Hag 0.700 ± 0.002
City 0.700 ± 0.002
Scrying Pool 0.700 ± 0.002
Menagerie 0.700 ± 0.002
Festival 0.701 ± 0.002
Torturer 0.701 ± 0.002
Steward 0.701 ± 0.002
Apprentice 0.701 ± 0.002
Familiar 0.701 ± 0.003
Forge 0.701 ± 0.002
Walled Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Trade Route 0.702 ± 0.002
Fishing Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Tournament 0.702 ± 0.002
Village 0.703 ± 0.002
Quarry 0.703 ± 0.002
Market 0.703 ± 0.002
Mint 0.703 ± 0.002
Ill-Gotten Gains 0.703 ± 0.003
University 0.703 ± 0.002
Pirate Ship 0.703 ± 0.002
Ironworks 0.703 ± 0.002
Upgrade 0.703 ± 0.002
Talisman 0.703 ± 0.002
Bridge 0.704 ± 0.002
Great Hall 0.704 ± 0.002
Vineyard 0.704 ± 0.002
Outpost 0.704 ± 0.002
Scheme 0.704 ± 0.003
Remake 0.704 ± 0.002
Border Village 0.704 ± 0.003
Remodel 0.704 ± 0.002
Warehouse 0.704 ± 0.002
Thief 0.704 ± 0.002
Salvager 0.704 ± 0.002
Wharf 0.705 ± 0.002
Spice Merchant 0.705 ± 0.003
Haven 0.705 ± 0.002
Mining Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Farming Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Rabble 0.705 ± 0.002
Contraband 0.705 ± 0.002
Potion 0.706 ± 0.001
Workshop 0.706 ± 0.002
Bazaar 0.706 ± 0.002
Fairgrounds 0.706 ± 0.002
Woodcutter 0.706 ± 0.002
Native Village 0.706 ± 0.002
Alchemist 0.706 ± 0.002
Watchtower 0.706 ± 0.002
Horse Traders 0.707 ± 0.002
Throne Room 0.707 ± 0.002
Fortune Teller 0.707 ± 0.002
Governor 0.707 ± 0.003
Lookout 0.707 ± 0.002
Mine 0.707 ± 0.002
Archivist 0.707 ± 0.038
Spy 0.707 ± 0.002
Apothecary 0.708 ± 0.002
Farmland 0.708 ± 0.003
Monument 0.708 ± 0.002
Tactician 0.708 ± 0.002
Smugglers 0.708 ± 0.002
Loan 0.708 ± 0.002
Transmute 0.708 ± 0.002
Envoy 0.708 ± 0.002
Inn 0.708 ± 0.003
Venture 0.708 ± 0.002
Crossroads 0.708 ± 0.003
Militia 0.708 ± 0.002
Nomad Camp 0.708 ± 0.003
Trading Post 0.708 ± 0.002
Duke 0.708 ± 0.002
Wishing Well 0.708 ± 0.002
Bureaucrat 0.708 ± 0.002
Secret Chamber 0.708 ± 0.002
Bank 0.708 ± 0.002
Herbalist 0.708 ± 0.002
Pawn 0.708 ± 0.002
Horn of Plenty 0.708 ± 0.002
Royal Seal 0.708 ± 0.002
Nobles 0.708 ± 0.002
Cartographer 0.709 ± 0.003
Mandarin 0.709 ± 0.003
Counting House 0.709 ± 0.002
Vault 0.709 ± 0.002
Harvest 0.709 ± 0.002
Highway 0.709 ± 0.003
Island 0.709 ± 0.002
Explorer 0.709 ± 0.002
Navigator 0.709 ± 0.002
Saboteur 0.709 ± 0.003
Cellar 0.709 ± 0.002
Coppersmith 0.709 ± 0.002
Shanty Town 0.709 ± 0.002
Pearl Diver 0.709 ± 0.002
Conspirator 0.709 ± 0.002
Cutpurse 0.709 ± 0.002
Feast 0.709 ± 0.002
Moneylender 0.709 ± 0.002
Laboratory 0.710 ± 0.002
Margrave 0.710 ± 0.003
Courtyard 0.710 ± 0.002
Develop 0.710 ± 0.003
Jester 0.710 ± 0.002
Hoard 0.710 ± 0.002
Philosopher's Stone 0.710 ± 0.002
Tunnel 0.710 ± 0.003
Haggler 0.710 ± 0.003
Tribute 0.710 ± 0.002
Baron 0.710 ± 0.002
Harem 0.710 ± 0.002
Fool's Gold 0.710 ± 0.003
Gardens 0.710 ± 0.002
Possession 0.710 ± 0.003
Adventurer 0.710 ± 0.002
Silk Road 0.710 ± 0.003
Oracle 0.710 ± 0.003
Scout 0.710 ± 0.002
Stash 0.711 ± 0.002
Oasis 0.711 ± 0.003
Golem 0.711 ± 0.002
Council Room 0.711 ± 0.002
Stables 0.711 ± 0.003
Moat 0.711 ± 0.002
Noble Brigand 0.711 ± 0.003
Swindler 0.711 ± 0.002
Embargo 0.712 ± 0.002
Caravan 0.712 ± 0.002
Chancellor 0.712 ± 0.002
Treasury 0.713 ± 0.002
Duchess 0.713 ± 0.003
Treasure Map 0.713 ± 0.002
Library 0.713 ± 0.002
Smithy 0.713 ± 0.002
Trader 0.713 ± 0.003
Merchant Ship 0.714 ± 0.002
Lighthouse 0.714 ± 0.002
Cache 0.714 ± 0.003
Jack of All Trades 0.714 ± 0.003
Embassy 0.714 ± 0.003

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2017, 04:01:05 pm »
0

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2017, 04:02:34 pm »
0

Mountebank is pretty swingy on 5/2. I've lost to much less skilled opponents just because they were able to open MB.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2017, 04:25:11 pm »
+7

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."

The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2017, 04:39:56 pm »
0

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff

Yes, in retrospect I wish I had suggested "You may trash one of them. You may discard one of them. Put the rest back in any order." Maybe it would have been too weak that way, dunno.

Isn't that how it's worded? NO?  Look at that, I've been playing it wrong. Hmmm... Yes, I still buy it a lot.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2017, 05:20:30 pm »
0

Treasure Map.  It's thematic, it's a luckfest.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #25 on: June 26, 2017, 05:24:43 pm »
+2

I think 3 relevant things have happened since that data was gathered in 2012:

1. Good players have gotten better: the skill gap between a "good" player and someone who just started playing has grown.
2. Players have gotten better at playing engines.
3. With new card releases, random kingdom selections favor engines more often.

The games in which you can just buy Embassy and win feel pretty rare nowadays.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 05:26:14 pm by singletee »
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #26 on: June 26, 2017, 06:35:51 pm »
0

Mountebank is pretty swingy on 5/2. I've lost to much less skilled opponents just because they were able to open MB.

What proportion of that swing was from MB and what was from getting the 5/2 split?

My definition of swingy is something that has a wide range of outcomes given identical, or near-identical start conditions. That's why I feel like Chapel and Swindler are better candidates.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 06:58:46 pm by Cave-o-sapien »
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2017, 06:52:00 pm »
+2

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."

The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.

Well, cards that work in strong simple strategies favor weak players for sure, but in a match-up between two highly skilled players, Embassy doesn't really favor the slightly less skilled player as much as something like Chapel does. It depends on the board of course; if it's just Embassy/BM and there's nothing better either player could do, it's just a matter of luck basically, but more often than not, there's an engine that can beat the BM. For example, maybe on a certain board, I would have a 30% chance of beating Stef with Embassy/BM, which is actually pretty good if you're not very skilled, but being me, I might want to aim for something like 40% so I would mirror his strategy anyway. And if there's Chapel, that's a great opportunity for him to draw badly.

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #28 on: June 26, 2017, 09:09:03 pm »
+7

The games in which you can just buy Embassy and win feel pretty rare nowadays.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #29 on: June 27, 2017, 12:45:48 am »
+1

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.

Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.

That doesn't mean I voted Tournament, cause I think it's less about a specific card and more (like in this instance) about combinations that push that swinginess. I've played games where I got Champion first then kept making my opponent discard his with Warrior while doing other attacks, but this is obviously dependent on what attacks/cards are in play that make Champion both worthwhile to pursue and snowball if you get it first and start spamming terminals.
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Titandrake

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #30 on: June 27, 2017, 12:50:10 am »
+1

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."

The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.

Well, cards that work in strong simple strategies favor weak players for sure, but in a match-up between two highly skilled players, Embassy doesn't really favor the slightly less skilled player as much as something like Chapel does. It depends on the board of course; if it's just Embassy/BM and there's nothing better either player could do, it's just a matter of luck basically, but more often than not, there's an engine that can beat the BM. For example, maybe on a certain board, I would have a 30% chance of beating Stef with Embassy/BM, which is actually pretty good if you're not very skilled, but being me, I might want to aim for something like 40% so I would mirror his strategy anyway. And if there's Chapel, that's a great opportunity for him to draw badly.

I think you're focusing too much on matches between two skilled players.

The whole time, your argument has been, "given two highly skilled players that are reasonably close in skill level, card X makes the less skilled player win more often than they should because of A, B, and C."

rrenaud's chart measures how uncertain a game's outcome is, based on all matches, including games where people aren't close in skill level.

I have played several games where I drew Chapel with 4 Copper, and my opponent drew it with 3 Estates, and I still won because they made mistakes in the mid-game. I've won games in other situations that looked similarly bad, often because of things like my opponent not respecting potential 3-piles, or getting overconfident in their engine and not trashing down as much as they should have. Against a player of similar skill level, those mistakes shouldn't happen that often and I shouldn't be able to make comeback victories.

I've also played games where my Chapel went to turn 5, my opponent autopiloted the engine, and it felt like there was nothing I could do. Those games exist. But by symmetry there are also games where I get dream draws and there's nothing my opponent can do. At a single game level, a bad Chapel draw can really ruin your chances, but on average I find it easy to believe Chapel helps the better player win more often, and rrenaud's numbers back it up.

If you restricted the matches used to only ones that were between players of similar level, and then further restricted it to only matches among people above a certain level threshold, I imagine you'd get different results.

Edit: more to the point, I'm not sure you and Donald actually disagree on anything, I think you're just arguing from different definitions.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 12:53:05 am by Titandrake »
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #31 on: June 27, 2017, 01:30:10 am »
+1

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.

Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.

This sounds familiar...
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #32 on: June 27, 2017, 01:49:05 am »
+3

In my personal definition of "swingy", it's not just about who wins or loses.  It's about how badly players win or lose, even when they're playing at similar skill levels.  Cultist is swingy because so often it results in 7/3 ruins splits.  In general, high-cost cards (King's Court, Goons, Platinum) are swingy because if you're lucky enough to spike them early, you can gain a snowball advantage.  Tournament is swingy because it relies on a high cost card (Province) followed by a specific collision.  Champion is swingy when you shuffle it into a large deck that takes several turns to draw through.

On the other hand, I don't think of BM+Embassy games as being swingy even if they're very luck-based, because such games are often very close.

Every time I see the title of this thread, I keep on thinking, "They can't all be the swingiest card ever."
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #33 on: June 27, 2017, 05:15:35 am »
0

Edit: more to the point, I'm not sure you and Donald actually disagree on anything, I think you're just arguing from different definitions.

It wasn't really my intention to tell him that he's wrong or anything, just discuss stuff because I was coming from a different point of view.

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #34 on: June 27, 2017, 10:32:33 am »
+2

Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.

You…can't inherit Silver? It's not an Action card. Or am I misunderstanding what happened?
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2017, 10:59:57 am »
+1

I think dominion takes place a little too early for swing. Not that we have the best ever records of street music for the time....
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2017, 12:01:33 pm »
+3

Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.

You…can't inherit Silver? It's not an Action card. Or am I misunderstanding what happened?

Inheritance was placed on Tournament, it's a typo in the original post. Pretty brutal: Followers even gives you more Estate-Tournaments!
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #37 on: June 27, 2017, 02:05:14 pm »
0

Kinda wanna say Possession. Buying it, but also what kind of turn(s) are you getting?

But even though that's swingy, idk about what would be the most swingy. Most throne room variants will be a bit swingy, except Royal Carriage mostly. Pretty much any attack can be swingy, depending on the board for some. For instance, even plain cursers like Witch can be swingy if Hermit is on the board. Any Village can be swingy, drawing too many when you don't need them or not enough when you do. Most reactions, especially Fool's Gold:)

In my experience I can definitely remember swinginess with Sentry. Had quite a bit with Talisman, drawing it and getting so much money I didn't want 2 4s or less, so it ended up being a copper. Treasure Maps ofc. Any number of reactions, one time my Moat always missed Sea Hags, and all my Hags drowned. Knights for sure. I've hit Warriors w/ my own twice, made a giant difference, but that barely happens. Island is a big one, the TR variants I've had, Swindler, Beggar(often it's the reaction u want and it's a dead card otherwise,) etc. Couldn't pick a swingiest, that seems subjective.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #38 on: June 27, 2017, 02:26:26 pm »
0

I've had some pretty swingy games with the travelers. Especially Champion.  Whoever goes first gets a sizable advantage and sometimes your traveler gets hit by their warrior, then you're deck is hosed.  That doesn't mean you played bad, it just means that you got unlucky.  Feels pretty swingy to me.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #39 on: June 27, 2017, 02:30:44 pm »
+1

Potion openings. Whether or not you are able to buy the potion cost card on turn 3 or 4 can sometimes make a big difference.

The most ridiculous example of shuffle luck I have seen was in a game where both me and my opponent were going for a Golem/Scheme/Council Room strategy. Tunnel was also on the board so Golds could be gained whilst Golem was searching out the other actions.

My opponent opened Potion/Tunnel then had 4 Copper/Potion and 3 Copper/Estate/Tunnel for their turn 3 and 4 hands gaining them their Golem and Scheme. Their turn 5 hand included Golem, which sailed past their Tunnel gaining a Gold on its way to finding the Scheme.

Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #40 on: June 27, 2017, 02:39:53 pm »
0

I voted Swindler.  I had a game in the last couple of days (I can't remember what everything was) where of my first 3 buys, two of them were Swindled into junk before I could play them.  The third buy was Swindler, where I at least hit Copper to Curse... but it could well have been Estate to Estate.

One card off either way and my opponent and I would have been on close to even footing.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #41 on: June 27, 2017, 03:56:46 pm »
0

Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

Similar to the Mountebank argument made earlier, I don't see how this means Mint is swingy. It just means Dominion's rules for starting hands can be swingy. There are many scenarios where 5/2 gives one player a huge advantage. I don't think that makes all of the 5 cards in those scenarios "swingy".
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #42 on: June 27, 2017, 04:14:34 pm »
+2

Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

Similar to the Mountebank argument made earlier, I don't see how this means Mint is swingy. It just means Dominion's rules for starting hands can be swingy. There are many scenarios where 5/2 gives one player a huge advantage. I don't think that makes all of the 5 cards in those scenarios "swingy".

I would argue Mint is an exception to this as how you pay for Mint makes a difference. It is at its best when it is bought using 5 Coppers. The most likely time to see a 5 Copper hand is a 5/2 opening.

It can also be swingy later on. For example after opening Silver/Silver, you would buy a Mint on turn 3 with a 5 Copper hand, you wouldn't with a 2 Silver, Copper, 2 Estate hand. You would buy a Mountebank with either hand.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #43 on: June 27, 2017, 04:24:30 pm »
0

Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

Similar to the Mountebank argument made earlier, I don't see how this means Mint is swingy. It just means Dominion's rules for starting hands can be swingy. There are many scenarios where 5/2 gives one player a huge advantage. I don't think that makes all of the 5 cards in those scenarios "swingy".

I would argue Mint is an exception to this as how you pay for Mint makes a difference. It is at its best when it is bought using 5 Coppers. The most likely time to see a 5 Copper hand is a 5/2 opening.

It can also be swingy later on. For example after opening Silver/Silver, you would buy a Mint on turn 3 with a 5 Copper hand, you wouldn't with a 2 Silver, Copper, 2 Estate hand. You would buy a Mountebank with either hand.

Fair points.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #44 on: June 28, 2017, 05:46:35 am »
0


Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #45 on: June 28, 2017, 05:59:40 am »
0

When a Swindler converts your 5 into a Duchy the game is basically over.
First Tournament "hit" on the other hand is basically an effect spread over several cards so a single Tournament is not that swingy.
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Sharajat

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #46 on: June 28, 2017, 09:54:41 am »
+3


Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)

Worst of those is definitely Alms.  5/2 Mint/Alms-Remake is a disgusting, disgusting thing. 

Actually Alms is pretty degenerate with 5/2s.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #47 on: June 28, 2017, 10:04:30 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)

All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.

Wow, I've won many a game where the opponent took all the prizes completely uncontested.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #48 on: June 28, 2017, 10:17:51 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)

All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.

Wow, I've won many a game where the opponent took all the prizes completely uncontested.

Were you pursuing Tournament in those games, or ignoring it?
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Gherald

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #49 on: July 01, 2017, 12:25:55 am »
+1

Sentry as the only or best trasher on the board can be more swingy than Chapel, because it's harder to recover from reaching $5 late and having bad luck with it.

To me a more interesting variable than pure swinginess is how much bad luck that ensues can be countered or mitigated with skillful play.

Black Market for example, appears extremely swingy the first few times you play it. "My opponent can do things I can't do!" is a classic newbie feeling. And yet after you become familiar enough with all the cards, you learn to appreciate the many skillful choices it presents you, and don't feel as dismayed the moment your opponent is able to buy a game-defining card from it.

----
My answer is Urchin. The problem with Urchin is that if your opponent gets luckier and starts spamming Mercenary plays sooner than you, there's often too little you can do to catch up. Note that I said often .. not always, not even most of the time, but often enough there's just little you can do to make the most of 3 card hands and the difficulty of lining your own late Mercenary up with your junk.

----
Tournament's swinginess is overrated. The prizes are good, but not as good as people think. You can easily win without any of them.

Honestly, Tournament is most swingy in Engine games without +buy or relevant gainers. That Princess becomes more relevant than Followers.

Followers is best understood as a weaker version of buying the only Goons off the black market.  It has no buy and the net VP effect of curses can be trashed. Good players know how to not be slowed down too much by its Militia attack.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #50 on: July 01, 2017, 02:51:28 pm »
0

Followers is best understood as a weaker version of buying the only Goons off the black market.  It has no buy and the net VP effect of curses can be trashed. Good players know how to not be slowed down too much by its Militia attack.
Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card. Unless there are other Cursers in the Kingdom (Cursers are rarely weak; even in a Kingdom with Chapel you might go for that Witch) such that the Curse pile is (nearly) empty and there are decent ways to defend against handsize attacks which has probably less to do with player strength than with the particularities of the respective Kingdom.
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terminalCopper

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #51 on: July 01, 2017, 03:26:54 pm »
+1

Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card.


There is also catapult. Furthermore, Sea Hags topdecking can be seen as an additional attack.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #52 on: July 01, 2017, 05:19:53 pm »
+1

Quote
Followers is best understood as a weaker version of buying the only Goons off the black market.

That's... the only Goons off the black market is an absurdly strong and swingy option. I don't see how this is making an argument that it's worse than any single attack that has 10 in the supply.

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #53 on: July 01, 2017, 06:11:13 pm »
+4

Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card.


There is also catapult. Furthermore, Sea Hags topdecking can be seen as an additional attack.

Sir Michael follows no one!
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #54 on: July 01, 2017, 08:43:32 pm »
+1

The draw of Followers is more significant than any "double attack" aspect.

Goons has the same net effect on VP and deck junk, assuming the player buys an average of 2 cards per turn, and Goon's VP differential can't be trashed away.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #55 on: July 02, 2017, 04:26:18 am »
0

The draw of Followers is more significant than any "double attack" aspect.
Other way around. Without the double attack it would be something worse than Moat.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #56 on: July 02, 2017, 05:57:45 am »
0

In this comparison, +2 cards is better than +$2 for most boards.

Your concept of "double attack" is just a misunderstanding of what Followers does to VP and deck size, since it's self-junking. Followers' effect is in fact weaker than Goons because the curses can be trashed or blocked, and also the first few times it's played the player would prefer to not gain estates.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #57 on: July 02, 2017, 06:27:54 am »
0

The draw of Followers is more significant than any "double attack" aspect.
Other way around. Without the double attack it would be something worse than Moat.

That really depends on how you mentally parse the card. If you think of it as:

+2 cards
Gain an estate
Double attack (i.e. Militia and Witch attacks)

Then yeah, it's the "Double attack" part that makes it strong. But if you think of it as:

+2 cards
+2 VP (not entirely accurate, since you want to trash your +1 VP away and your opponent wants to trash his -1 VP too, so that'll probably happen if it's possible)
Militia attack
Both players gain a junk card

Then it's really very comparable to getting a single Goons, with the only upside being that it doubles as a super weak engine component, i.e. the +2 cards.

Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #58 on: July 02, 2017, 08:29:51 am »
0

Your concept of "double attack" is just a misunderstanding of what Followers does to VP and deck size, since it's self-junking. Followers' effect is in fact weaker than Goons because the curses can be trashed or blocked, and also the first few times it's played the player would prefer to not gain estates.
Sure, most of the times (i.e. unless it is late in the game when you'd actually want Estates) you'd prefer Followers to be a pure Curser. But it is still an attack and in Kingdoms without trashers the 2VP difference is permanent.
I'd agree though that most of the times (you don't always buy two cards with Goons in play and 2 Cards is a bit better than 2 Coins) Goons is slightly better than Followers.

Trusty Steed, being used most of the times as a Lost City, is also more or less a hypothetical 6/7 (of course you cannot really prize prices, that's just a rough benchmark).

Of course this is all just academic, the crucial element is that Goons is available to everybody while there is only one Followers and in some Kingdoms getting Followers can be the game deciding moment.
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Gherald

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #59 on: July 02, 2017, 09:56:15 am »
+1

I don't think anyone here needed to read your comment to have a similar understanding of all those things.

The less-understood point is that while a card like Followers can decide games, it's not as hard to counter as people think. Good play and reasonable luck can beat it often enough. Your play will improve if you understand and think of it as a somewhat weaker Goons rather than as being a curser attack.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #60 on: July 03, 2017, 02:42:34 am »
0

If there is nothing in the Kingdom that can counter the handsize (while a draw engine can of course deal with handsize attacks there are not that many explicit counters to them: only Guide, Diplomat, Menagerie and Shanty Town come to mind) and junking attack (no trasher or sifters and you are doomed if you cannot mirror a Curser) good play does not save you and luck does not matter above the degree that it matters for Dominion in general.

In a game without Landmarks or alt-VPs that difference of 2VPs per Followers play can be crucial to the score.
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Gherald

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #61 on: July 03, 2017, 04:30:47 am »
+1

You keeping assessing it as a doom-bringing junking attack instead of +2VP, so I guess we aren't making any progress on that front.

I already said it can decide games. Surely we all here know something of the ways in which it can decide games. But thanks for the update.
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luser

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #62 on: July 03, 2017, 05:57:48 am »
0

I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard. Sea hag is swingier than swindler as it sea hags opponents sea hag. I would put ambassador on third place for unlucky 5/2 splits and that winner is decided by collision of double-ambassador or not lot of time.

Main problem with entropy measure is that it measures something completely different than swinginess, namely how much poor player misplay(especially openings). Amb has low rating there because noobs don't open double ambassador. bishop follows that as noobs open with it and get deserved loss most of time.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #63 on: July 03, 2017, 08:37:58 am »
0

You keeping assessing it as a doom-bringing junking attack instead of +2VP, so I guess we aren't making any progress on that front.

I already said it can decide games. Surely we all here know something of the ways in which it can decide games. But thanks for the update.
I don't think that your snarkiness is warranted.


I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.
I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.
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luser

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #64 on: July 03, 2017, 12:20:33 pm »
0


I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.
I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.

That isn't surprising as card needs to be strong to affect outcome in significant manner. Otherwise I could say that scout was very swingy as you could remove three estates with it or none.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #65 on: July 03, 2017, 01:17:47 pm »
0


I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.
I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.

That isn't surprising as card needs to be strong to affect outcome in significant manner. Otherwise I could say that scout was very swingy as you could remove three estates with it or none.
I don't agree entirely. You are right that a weak and swingy card is not really relevant as its risk does not impact the game much. But I don't think that the opposite is true, i.e. that a swingy card has to be strong to  really impact the game. Swindler and Tournament are in my opinion medium power level cards and unlike Cultist not crazily overpowered and yet a single play of them can significantly change the game.
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Sharajat

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #66 on: July 05, 2017, 11:02:49 am »
+1

Really?  Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.  Trashing provinces with sab while your opponent's sabs hit silver is the difference between winning and losing in the late game - if both players go Sab.  Chances are if one player goes Sab and one doesn't, the Sab player just loses anyway because god that card is bad. 

And despite being enormously swingy it's not even on this list. 
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #67 on: July 05, 2017, 11:33:41 am »
0

Really?  Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.  Trashing provinces with sab while your opponent's sabs hit silver is the difference between winning and losing in the late game - if both players go Sab.  Chances are if one player goes Sab and one doesn't, the Sab player just loses anyway because god that card is bad. 

And despite being enormously swingy it's not even on this list.

Well, I mean, it is an outtake now.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #68 on: July 05, 2017, 12:34:30 pm »
+1

Really?  Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.
Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)
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SettingFraming

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #69 on: July 06, 2017, 08:18:01 am »
+6

*cough Black Market *cough

Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.

I patently disagree with this. What and when you flip from the BM deck is incredibly important AND not in the player's control. Thus it's plenty swingy and I have won and lost plenty when the most important meter movers in the game were Black Market plays.

Page, though, receives my vote.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 08:19:25 am by SettingFraming »
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Gherald

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #70 on: July 07, 2017, 01:55:56 pm »
+2

It depends on what one wants to talk about with "swingy" -- how you define the word?

If to you "swingy" means something that simply leads to unequal events you have no control over, which can be game-deciding, then yes Black Market is very swingy.

If to you "swingy" means something that often gives one player a strong early advantage that the other often has insufficient good chances of countering, Black Market is not swingy.

You can have unlucky outcomes with the Black Market that determine some games, we know this. But at the same time it also leads to many more important choices that are in the player's control, not fewer, and so is possibly the best card in all Dominion in terms of rewarding skilled play. That's why people like Stef appreciate it, and don't find the swingy label to be at all useful.
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Skumpy

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #71 on: July 07, 2017, 02:40:43 pm »
+1

If to you "swingy" means something that often gives one player a strong early advantage that the other often has insufficient good chances of countering, Black Market is not swingy.

As breppert says, the what and when is extremely important. Say there's weak/no trashing on the board. If you find a Chapel/Steward/Amulet/heck even Rats, on your very first Black Market play and I have to wait until my fifth BM play before stumbling on an Apprentice (which can absolutely happen), that's a huge early advantage that's basically impossible to overcome. Going the other direction, King's Court is a wonderful card to have around, but I don't want it to be in my first flip because I can't afford it yet.

You can have unlucky outcomes with the Black Market that determine some games, we know this.
= swing

But at the same time it also leads to many more important choices that are in the player's control, not fewer, and so is possibly the best card in all Dominion in terms of rewarding skilled play.

Fair enough, but this is only true when events like the one above don't happen first. There are plenty of games with no swing. Maybe the swindlers do equal damage to both players deck. Warriors almost never hit the other player's (or players'). If one player gets the first Big-3 Prize, the other player can often get one of the remaining 2. Players can have equal/close to equal luck with Sentry and Sauna. You get the idea. The point is, just because Black Market is a high-skill level card (certainly more than any of the options in the poll at any rate) doesn't mean there isn't also a huge luck factor involved that can early and quickly turn the tide.
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Gherald

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #72 on: July 07, 2017, 05:52:18 pm »
0

You're overstating things with "basically impossible to overcome". Although scenarios like that are not that common, they can be overcome.
Quote
= swing
On occasions, yes. Stef did oversimplify things by saying Black Market isn't swingy "at all", but he's right to consider it an uninteresting aspect of the card. It's not the most interesting thing about BM, and nor is it interesting to compare it to the top tier of cards which do tend to more deterministically swing games.
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Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #73 on: July 08, 2017, 06:47:41 am »
0

Black Market can be extremly swingy and game-deciding if you e.g. gain a junker or trasher while no junker or trasher is present in the Kingdom.
On the other hand this only happens sometimes and it is partially mitigated by a huger Black Market deck which makes it more likely that the seemingly unlucky player will later also find a card of a category that is not present in the Kingdom.
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Sharajat

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #74 on: July 09, 2017, 04:37:42 pm »
0


Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
I think Alms deserves special mention.

That being said I think Alms deserves special mention for basically making 5/2 hands insanely good always, but Mint>Alms (Salvager) just feels brutally unfair.
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Holger

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #75 on: July 10, 2017, 11:59:08 am »
0


Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.

But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
I think Alms deserves special mention.

That being said I think Alms deserves special mention for basically making 5/2 hands insanely good always, but Mint>Alms (Salvager) just feels brutally unfair.

Indeed (but you already said so above). Advance (if there's a $2- Action available) and Delve also make for a good Mint opening. Still, it's only 5-6 "cards" out of ~400 total.
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luser

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #76 on: July 21, 2017, 05:21:12 pm »
0

Really?  Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.
Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)

Also it isn't very swingy, in moneyish boards odds that it helps you are astronomical. You would rather buy duchy. Even if sab hits province that opponents changes into duchy its same vp swing as buying duchy.

In engines where you play multiple sabs skill is deciding factor. What really matters is to get engine operational fast and play more sabs than opponent buys. Before that one could relatively easily replace engine components. It doesn't matter much what those sabs hit as you need to reduce opponent deck until it collapses.
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Sharajat

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #77 on: July 24, 2017, 04:03:13 pm »
+1

Really?  Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.
Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)

Also it isn't very swingy, in moneyish boards odds that it helps you are astronomical. You would rather buy duchy. Even if sab hits province that opponents changes into duchy its same vp swing as buying duchy.

In engines where you play multiple sabs skill is deciding factor. What really matters is to get engine operational fast and play more sabs than opponent buys. Before that one could relatively easily replace engine components. It doesn't matter much what those sabs hit as you need to reduce opponent deck until it collapses.

However in games where it's a bad buy because it can't be King's Courted (and lets face it that's 90% of the times it was a passable buy) and yet both players still buy it then the game would often come down to a straight coin flip. 

In short it's swingy AND awful, and we don't care it is swingy because it's awful.  Swingy strong cards (Familiar, Chapel) are the cards that draw our attention.  But the bad swingy card was still swingy (Tribute and Harvest are two more swingy cards that aren't great - Harvest in particular rises to only 'pretty good' if you're consistently high rolling)
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 04:04:30 pm by Sharajat »
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Asper

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #78 on: August 03, 2017, 12:20:51 pm »
+2

Page. Or Warrior, more specific. It's the only card where getting lucky once can decide the game. Worst of all, those game's aren't even fun. Black Market and Tournament might also be swingy, but they are still enjoyable. Just my personal opinion.

Q

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #79 on: August 03, 2017, 12:50:39 pm »
+1

You can easily hedge yourself against the risk of getting a Warrior trashed by an opponent's Warrior via buying several Pages.
Warrior is a fairly harmless attack and in my experience less swingy or devastating than some Knight Kingdoms.
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Asper

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #80 on: August 03, 2017, 03:20:28 pm »
+1

You can easily hedge yourself against the risk of getting a Warrior trashed by an opponent's Warrior via buying several Pages.
Warrior is a fairly harmless attack and in my experience less swingy or devastating than some Knight Kingdoms.

I can just say that in my experience you don't always want to exchange your Warrior right away. Sometimes you want to quickly build a deck that can turn over as many cards as possible by getting just Pages and 1 Warrior. If you're lucky and hit your opponent's Warrior and can constantly trash more cards than they gain, you're never letting another Page past Treasure Hunter. You can still exchange the Warrior once all Treasure Hunters are in the trash. Having that Hero/Champion will give you the edge either way, while your opponent has to build from zero. Obviously this fails as soon as they get a 5$ that helps getting other 5$+ cards, like Hero.
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